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Nowadays, the breakout of the COVID-19 pandemic has caused an important change in teaching models. The emotional experience of this change has an important impact on online teaching. This paper aims to explore its time evolution characteristics and provide reference for the development of online teaching in the post epidemic era.

The article firstly crawls the online teaching-related comment text data on Zhihu platform and performs emotional calculation to obtain a one-dimensional time series of daily average emotional values. Then, by using non-linear time-series analysis, this paper reconstructs the daily average emotion value time series in high-dimensional phase space, calculates the maximum Lyapunov exponent and correlation dimension and finally, explores the feature patterns through recurrence plot and recurrence quantification analysis.

It was found that the sequence has typical non-linear chaotic characteristics; its correlation dimension indicates that it contains obvious fractal characteristics; the public emotional evolution shows a cyclical rise and fall. By text mining and temporal evolution analysis, this paper explores the evolution law over chronically of the daily average emotion value time series, provides feasible strategies to improve students' online learning experience and quality and continuously optimizes this new teaching model in the era of pandemic.

Based on social knowledge sharing platform of Q&A, this paper models and analyzes users interaction data under online teaching-related topics. This paper explores the evolution law over a long time period of the daily average emotion value time series using text mining and temporal evolution analysis. It then offers workable solutions to enhance the quality and experience of students' online learning, and it continuously improves this new teaching model in the age of pandemics.

The purpose of this paper is to propose a new methodology that handles the issue of the dynamic behavior of customers over time.

A new methodology is presented based on time series clustering to extract dominant behavioral patterns of customers over time. This methodology is implemented using bank customers’ transactions data which are in the form of time series data. The data include the recency (R), frequency (F) and monetary (M) attributes of businesses that are using the point-of-sale (POS) data of a bank. This data were obtained from the data analysis department of the bank.

After carrying out an empirical study on the acquired transaction data of 2,531 business customers that are using POS devices of the bank, the dominant trends of behavior are discovered using the proposed methodology. The obtained trends were analyzed from the marketing viewpoint. Based on the analysis of the monetary attribute, customers were divided into four main segments, including high-value growing customers, middle-value growing customers, prone to churn and churners. For each resulted group of customers with a distinctive trend, effective and practical marketing recommendations were devised to improve the bank relationship with that group. The prone-to-churn segment contains most of the customers; therefore, the bank should conduct interesting promotions to retain this segment.

The discovered trends of customer behavior and proposed marketing recommendations can be helpful for banks in devising segment-specific marketing strategies as they illustrate the dynamic behavior of customers over time. The obtained trends are visualized so that they can be easily interpreted and used by banks. This paper contributes to the literature on customer relationship management (CRM) as the proposed methodology can be effectively applied to different businesses to reveal trends in customer behavior.

In the current business condition, customer behavior is changing continually over time and customers are churning due to the reduced switching costs. Therefore, choosing an effective customer segmentation methodology which can consider the dynamic behaviors of customers is essential for every business. This paper proposes a new methodology to capture customer dynamic behavior using time series clustering on time-ordered data. This is an improvement over previous studies, in which static segmentation approaches have often been adopted. To the best of the authors’ knowledge, this is the first study that combines the recency, frequency, and monetary model and time series clustering to reveal trends in customer behavior.

The keywords from patent documents contain a lot of information of technology. If we analyze the time series of keywords, we will be able to understand even more about technological evolution. The previous researches of time series processes in patent analysis were based on time series regression or the Box-Jenkins methodology. The methods dealt with continuous time series data. But the keyword time series data in patent analysis are not continuous, they are frequency integer values. So we need a new methodology for integer-valued time series model. The purpose of this paper is to propose modeling of integer-valued time series for patent analysis.

For modeling frequency data of keywords, the authors used integer-valued generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity model with Poisson and negative binomial distributions. Using the proposed models, the authors forecast the future trends of target keywords of Apple in order to know the future technology of Apple.

The authors carry out a case study to illustrate how the methodology can be applied to real problem. In this paper, the authors collect the patent documents issued by Apple, and analyze them to find the technological trend of Apple company. From the results of Apple case study, the authors can find which technological keywords are more important or critical in the entire structure of Apple’s technologies.

This paper contributes to the research and development planning for producing new products. The authors can develop and launch the innovative products to improve the technological competition of a company through complete understanding of the technological keyword trends.

The retrieved patent documents from the patent databases are not suitable for statistical analysis. So, the authors have to transform the documents into structured data suitable for statistics. In general, the structured data are a matrix consisting of patent (row) and keyword (column), and its element is an occurred frequency of a keyword in each patent. The data type is not continuous but discrete. However, in most researches, they were analyzed by statistical methods for continuous data. In this paper, the authors build a statistical model based on discrete data.

Purpose – Time-series regression models are applied to analyse transport safety data for three purposes: (1) to develop a relationship between transport accidents (or incidents) and various time-varying factors, with the aim of identifying the most important factors; (2) to develop a time-series accident model in forecasting future accidents for the given values of future time-varying factors and (3) to evaluate the impact of a system-wide policy, education or engineering intervention on accident counts. Regression models for analysing transport safety data are well established, especially in analysing cross-sectional and panel datasets. There is, however, a dearth of research relating to time-series regression models in the transport safety literature. The purpose of this chapter is to examine existing literature with the aim of identifying time-series regression models that have been employed in safety analysis in relation to wider applications. The aim is to identify time-series regression models that are applicable in analysing disaggregated accident counts.

Methodology/Approach – There are two main issues in modelling time-series accident counts: (1) a flexible approach in addressing serial autocorrelation inherent in time-series processes of accident counts and (2) the fact that the conditional distribution (conditioned on past observations and covariates) of accident counts follow a Poisson-type distribution. Various time-series regression models are explored to identify the models most suitable for analysing disaggregated time-series accident datasets. A recently developed time-series regression model – the generalised linear autoregressive and moving average (GLARMA) – has been identified as the best model to analyse safety data.

Findings – The GLARMA model was applied to a time-series dataset of airproxes (aircraft proximity) that indicate airspace safety in the United Kingdom. The aim was to evaluate the impact of an airspace intervention (i.e., the introduction of reduced vertical separation minima, RVSM) on airspace safety while controlling for other factors, such as air transport movements (ATMs) and seasonality. The results indicate that the GLARMA model is more appropriate than a generalised linear model (e.g., Poisson or Poisson-Gamma), and it has been found that the introduction of RVSM has reduced the airprox events by 15%. In addition, it was found that a 1% increase in ATMs within UK airspace would lead to a 1.83% increase in monthly airproxes in UK airspace.

Practical applications – The methodology developed in this chapter is applicable to many time-series processes of accident counts. The models recommended in this chapter could be used to identify different time-varying factors and to evaluate the effectiveness of various policy and engineering interventions on transport safety or similar data (e.g., crimes).

Originality/value of paper – The GLARMA model has not been properly explored in modelling time-series safety data. This new class of model has been applied to a dataset in evaluating the effectiveness of an intervention. The model recommended in this chapter would greatly benefit researchers and analysts working with time-series data.

The outbreak and continuation of COVID-19 have spawned the transformation of traditional teaching models to a certain extent. The Chinese Ministry of Education’s guidance on “keep learning and teaching during class suspension” has made OTC and learning (OTC) become routinized, and the public’s emotional attitudes toward OTC have also evolved over time. The purpose of this study is to segment the emotional text data and introduce it into the topic model to reveal the evolution process and stage characteristics of public emotional polarity and public opinion of OTC topics during public health emergencies in the context of social media participation. The research has important guiding significance for the development of OTC and can influence and improve the efficiency and effect of OTC to a certain extent. The analysis of online public opinion can provide suggestions for the government and media to guide the trend of public opinion and optimize the OTC model.

This paper takes the topic of “OTC” on Zhihu during the COVID-19 epidemic as an example, combined with the characteristics of public opinion changes, chooses Boson emotional dictionary and time series analysis method to build an OTC network public opinion theme evolution analysis framework that integrates emotional analysis and topic mining. Finally, an empirical analysis of the dynamic evolution of the communication network for each stage of the life cycle of a specific topic is realized.

This paper draws the following conclusions: (1) Through the emotional value table and the change trend chart of the number of comments, the analysis found that the number of positive comments is greater than the number of negative comments, which can be inferred that the public gradually accepts “OTC” and presents a positive emotional state. (2) By observing the changing trend of the average daily emotional value of the public, it is found that the overall emotional value shows a stable development trend after a large fluctuation. From the actual emotional value and the fitted emotional value curve, it can be seen that the overall curve fit is good, so ARIMA (12, 1, 6) can accurately predict the dynamic trend of the daily average emotional value in this paper. Therefore, based on the above-mentioned public opinion, emotional analysis research, relevant countermeasures and suggestions are put forward, which is conducive to guiding the development direction of public opinion in a positive way.

Taking the topic of “OTC” in Zhihu as an example, this paper combines Boson emotional dictionary and time series to conduct a series of research analyses. Boson emotional dictionary can analyze the public’s emotional tendency, and time series can well analyze the intrinsic structure and complex features of the data to predict the future values. The combination of the two research methods allows for an adequate and unique study of public emotional polarization and the evolution of public opinion.

This study aims to propose a learning pattern analysis method which can improve a predictive model’s performance, as well as discover hidden insights into micro-level learning pattern. Analyzing student’s learning patterns can help instructors understand how their course design or activities shape learning behaviors; depict students’ beliefs about learning and their motivation; and predict learning performance by analyzing individual students’ learning patterns. Although time-series analysis is one of the most feasible predictive methods for learning pattern analysis, literature-indicated current approaches cannot provide holistic insights about learning patterns for personalized intervention. This study identified at-risk students by micro-level learning pattern analysis and detected pattern types, especially at-risk patterns that existed in the case study. The connections among students’ learning patterns, corresponding self-regulated learning (SRL) strategies and learning performance were finally revealed.

The method used long short-term memory (LSTM)-encoder to process micro-level behavioral patterns for feature extraction and compression, thus the students’ behavior pattern information were saved into encoded series. The encoded time-series data were then used for pattern analysis and performance prediction. Time series clustering were performed to interpret the unique strength of proposed method.

Successful students showed consistent participation levels and balanced behavioral frequency distributions. The successful students also adjusted learning behaviors to meet with course requirements accordingly. The three at-risk patten types showed the low-engagement (R1) the low-interaction (R2) and the non-persistent characteristics (R3). Successful students showed more complete SRL strategies than failed students. Political Science had higher at-risk chances in all three at-risk types. Computer Science, Earth Science and Economics showed higher chances of having R3 students.

The study identified multiple learning patterns which can lead to the at-risk situation. However, more studies are needed to validate whether the same at-risk types can be found in other educational settings. In addition, this case study found the distributions of at-risk types were vary in different subjects. The relationship between subjects and at-risk types is worth further investigation.

This study found the proposed method can effectively extract micro-level behavioral information to generate better prediction outcomes and depict student’s SRL learning strategies in online learning. The authors confirm that the research in their work is original, and that all the data given in the paper are real and authentic. The study has not been submitted to peer review and not has been accepted for publishing in another journal.

The purpose of this study is to examine how the recent recession affected Iowa's gaming industry by analyzing gaming volumes before and through the recession.

This study used autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) with intervention analysis to examine Iowa statewide aggregated monthly slot coin-in, table drop, and admission from December 2001 through June 2012.

The results of analyses show that: slot coin-in was not affected by the recession; table drop was slightly affected, but started to recover in late 2010; and monthly admission was not affected by the recession, and showed a significant increase after the recession. The results also indicate that the decrease in table drop in Iowa casinos represented only a very small amount of state gaming revenue in 2008. Therefore, the findings of this study suggest that Iowa's gaming volume was not significantly affected by the recent recession. In other words, Iowa's gaming industry is still recession-proof.

Current economic conditions suggest that the threat of a double-dip recession is quite real. The findings of this study are expected to help casino managers in Iowa understand how non-destination casinos behaved differently through the recession and strategically plan for a possible future economic downturn. In fact, the significant increase of monthly admission during the last recession implies that the Iowa gaming industry has actually benefited from the recession by accommodating more patrons. Therefore, to capitalize on the next recession, Iowa's casino operators should consider reducing the number of table games and increasing the number of slot machines to accommodate more slot players and reduce operating costs.

Most existing gaming-related research focuses on gaming destinations such as Las Vegas and Atlantic City. No known study on gaming volume in non-destination gaming markets has been identified. By examining Iowa's gaming volume through the recession, this study provides initial empirical evidence of the impact of recession on non-destination gaming markets.

This study aims to attempt to examine whether the increase in hotel room capacity in the USA had a significant impact on nationwide aggregated weekly revenue per available room (RevPAR) during the recession of 2007-2009 and forecast average RevPAR, Occupancy and Average Daily Rate (ADR) for 2013 and 2014.

Using Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average with Intervention analysis technique, this study examined the significance of the fluctuations in weekly RevPAR, room capacity and market demand through the recent recession and forecasted hotel performance for 2013 and 2014.

The results of time series analysis suggest that the fast growth of room capacity during the recession was one of the main causes of the decrease in RevPAR. The 9,878 more than expected increase in average weekly number of rooms probably caused at least $0.10 more than expected decrease in average weekly RevPAR. The findings of this study also suggest that the US lodging industry has been facing more severe oversupply since the recession and fully rebound of RevPAR cannot be expected in the very near future.

The findings of this study will help stakeholders make more informed decisions to cope with possible future economic downturns. By quantifying the capacity increase and forecasting future market demand, this study provides hotel investors with empirical evidence on the overdevelopment and insights into expected overall hotel performance in next two years. This study has also discussed the cyclical patterns of hotel development during the past two recessions.

By identifying overdevelopment as one of the main causes of RevPAR decrease during the recession, this study contributes to the literature by adding an alternative explanation of RevPAR fluctuations and deepens the understanding of the adverse effects overdevelopment has on the lodging industry. The findings of this study will help hotel investors develop more informed future expansion plans.

The investment development path of emerging markets’ MNEs is significantly different from the developed (TRIAD) world’s MNEs; BRIC MNEs seem to have taken a different trajectory on account of various political and economic reasons, ranging from the ‘forms of entry’ to ‘country-specific advantages’ (Tulder, R. V. (2010). Toward a renewed stages theory for BRIC multinational enterprises? A home country bargaining approach. In K. P. Sauvant, G. McAllister, & W. A. Maschek (Eds.), Foreign direct investments from emerging markets: The challenges ahead (pp. 61–74). New York, NY: Palgrave Macmillan). Yet, some believe that in the long run the internationalization strategy of the developed world MNEs and BRIC MNEs will converge. Internationalization strategies as measured by OFDI depend on various macroeconomic determinants such as income, interest rate, openness of the economy, etc. The chapter intend to highlight, the significant difference between these two groups of countries on account of diverse political reforms towards internalization of firms, yet see if these different countries might converge.

Regression analysis examines the significance of the role of home government by testing the effect of governance indicators; that is voice and accountability, on OFDI. It further, tests for convergence of internationalization strategies of the two historically divergent groups, also, it tests convergence amongst the BRIC nations. Along with forecasting, time series analysis is also employed to examine convergence using univariate sigma convergence techniques.

Impact of voice and accountability is significant but it hinders OFDI for BRIC nations, while it promotes OFDI for TRIAD & ALL. Moreover, the analysis found the existence of convergence, that is BRIC will catch up with TRIAD, but though convergence exists amongst BRIC if we take a long span of time (45 years), it is absent in short span of time (19 years), as lately BRIC have shown divergent tendency.

Small sample size in multivariate regression analysis. Also, the governance indicator, that is voice and accountability, is perception based, and missing gaps in data for governance indicator is filled using interpolation.

Empirically testing the convergence of BRIC nations with the developed world. A univariate time series analysis is undertaken to understand each country’s heterogeneous FDI outflows and to address the research gap in existing forecasting literature. In addition, the comparison specifically between the Emerging Market Economies, that is the BRIC nations and the developed world gives some useful insights. This chapter ascertains the impact of governance indicator on OFDI; empirical literature shows such analysis for IFDI & FDI, but OFDI is rarely been dealt with.

A significant number of studies have been conducted to analyze and understand the relationship between gas emissions and global temperature using conventional statistical approaches. However, these techniques follow assumptions of probabilistic modeling, where results can be associated with large errors. Furthermore, such traditional techniques cannot be applied to imprecise data. The purpose of this paper is to avoid strict assumptions when studying the complex relationships between variables by using the three innovative, up-to-date, statistical modeling tools: adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference systems (ANFIS), artificial neural networks (ANNs) and fuzzy time series models.

These three approaches enabled us to effectively represent the relationship between global carbon dioxide (CO₂) emissions from the energy sector (oil, gas and coal) and the average global temperature increase. Temperature was used in this study (1900-2012). Investigations were conducted into the predictive power and performance of different fuzzy techniques against conventional methods and among the fuzzy techniques themselves.

A performance comparison of the ANFIS model against conventional techniques showed that the root means square error (RMSE) of ANFIS and conventional techniques were found to be 0.1157 and 0.1915, respectively. On the other hand, the correlation coefficients of ANN and the conventional technique were computed to be 0.93 and 0.69, respectively. Furthermore, the fuzzy-based time series analysis of CO₂ emissions and average global temperature using three fuzzy time series modeling techniques (Singh, Abbasov–Mamedova and NFTS) showed that the RMSE of fuzzy and conventional time series models were 110.51 and 1237.10, respectively.

The paper provides more awareness about fuzzy techniques application in CO₂ emissions studies.

These techniques can be extended to other models to assess the impact of CO₂ emission from other sectors.