Search results

1 – 10 of over 1000
Article
Publication date: 7 November 2023

Te-Kuan Lee and Askar Koshoev

The primary objective of this research is to provide evidence that there are two distinct layers of investor sentiments that can affect asset valuation models. The first is…

Abstract

Purpose

The primary objective of this research is to provide evidence that there are two distinct layers of investor sentiments that can affect asset valuation models. The first is general market-wide sentiments, while the second is biased approaches toward specific assets.

Design/methodology/approach

To achieve the goal, the authors conducted a multi-step analysis of stock returns and constructed complex sentiment indices that reflect the optimism or pessimism of stock market participants. The authors used panel regression with fixed effects and a sample of the US stock market to improve the explanatory power of the three-factor models.

Findings

The analysis showed that both market-level and stock-level sentiments have significant contributions, although they are not equal. The impact of stock-level sentiments is more profound than market-level sentiments, suggesting that neglecting the stock-level sentiment proxies in asset valuation models may lead to severe deficiencies.

Originality/value

In contrast to previous studies, the authors propose that investor sentiments should be measured using a multi-level factor approach rather than a single-factor approach. The authors identified two distinct levels of investor sentiment: general market-wide sentiments and individual stock-specific sentiments.

Details

Review of Behavioral Finance, vol. 16 no. 3
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1940-5979

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 13 February 2024

Elena Fedorova and Polina Iasakova

This paper aims to investigate the impact of climate change news on the dynamics of US stock indices.

146

Abstract

Purpose

This paper aims to investigate the impact of climate change news on the dynamics of US stock indices.

Design/methodology/approach

The empirical basis of the study was 3,209 news articles. Sentiment analysis was performed by a pre-trained bidirectional FinBERT neural network. Thematic modeling is based on the neural network, BERTopic.

Findings

The results show that news sentiment can influence the dynamics of stock indices. In addition, five main news topics (finance and politics natural disasters and consequences industrial sector and Innovations activism and culture coronavirus pandemic) were identified, which showed a significant impact on the financial market.

Originality/value

First, we extend the theoretical concepts. This study applies signaling theory and overreaction theory to the US stock market in the context of climate change. Second, in addition to the news sentiment, the impact of major news topics on US stock market returns is examined. Third, we examine the impact of sentimental and thematic news variables on US stock market indicators of economic sectors. Previous works reveal the impact of climate change news on specific sectors of the economy. This paper includes stock indices of the economic sectors most related to the topic of climate change. Fourth, the research methodology consists of modern algorithms. An advanced textual analysis method for sentiment classification is applied: a pre-trained bidirectional FinBERT neural network. Modern thematic modeling is carried out using a model based on the neural network, BERTopic. The most extensive topics are “finance and politics of climate change” and “natural disasters and consequences.”

Details

The Journal of Risk Finance, vol. 25 no. 2
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1526-5943

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 15 November 2023

Rajesh Mohnot, Arindam Banerjee, Hanane Ballaj and Tapan Sarker

The aim of this research is to re-examine the dynamic linkages between macroeconomic variables and the stock market indices in Malaysia following some transformational changes in…

Abstract

Purpose

The aim of this research is to re-examine the dynamic linkages between macroeconomic variables and the stock market indices in Malaysia following some transformational changes in the policies and the exchange rate regime.

Design/methodology/approach

Using monthly data points for all the economic variables and the stock market index (KLCI Index), the authors applied vector autoregression (VAR) model to examine the relationship. The authors also used impulse response function (IRF) in order to explore the effect of one-unit shock in “X” on “Y” under the VAR environment.

Findings

The authors' study finds a significant relationship between all the macroeconomic variables and the stock market index of Malaysia. The cointegration results indicate a long-term relationship, whereas the vector autoregressive-based impulse response analysis suggests that the Malaysian stock index (KLCI) responds negatively to the money supply, inflation and producer price index (PPI). However, the authors' results indicate a positive response from the stock index to the exchange rate.

Research limitations/implications

The authors' study's results are based on selected macroeconomic variables and the VAR model. Researchers may find other variables and methods more useful and may provide findings accordingly.

Practical implications

Since the results are quite asymmetric, it would be interesting for the market players, policymakers and regulators to consider the findings and explore appropriate opportunities.

Originality/value

While the relationship between macroeconomic variables and stock market indices has been widely examined, a significant gap in the literature remains concerning the role of exchange rate variable on the stock market in an emerging economy context.

Article
Publication date: 16 November 2023

Fatma Hachicha

The aim of this paper is threefold: (1) to develop a new measure of investor sentiment rational (ISR) of developing countries by applying principal component analysis (PCA), (2…

Abstract

Purpose

The aim of this paper is threefold: (1) to develop a new measure of investor sentiment rational (ISR) of developing countries by applying principal component analysis (PCA), (2) to investigate co-movements between the ten developing stock markets, the sentiment investor's, exchange rates and geopolitical risk (GPR) during Russian invasion of Ukraine in 2022, (3) to explore the key factors that might affect exchange market and capital market before and mainly during Russia–Ukraine war period.

Design/methodology/approach

The wavelet approach and the multivariate wavelet coherence (MWC) are applied to detect the co-movements on daily data from August 2019 to December 2022. Value-at-risk (VaR) and conditional value-at-risk (CVaR) are used to assess the systemic risks of exchange rate market and stock market return in the developing market.

Findings

Results of this study reveal (1) strong interdependence between GPR, investor sentiment rational (ISR), stock market index and exchange rate in short- and long-terms in most countries, as inferred from (WTC) analysis. (2) There is evidence of strong short-term co-movements between ISR and exchange rates, with ISR leading. (3) Multivariate coherency shows strong contributions of ISR and GPR index to stock market index and exchange rate returns. The findings signal the attractiveness of the Vietnamese dong, Malaysian ringgits and Tunisian dinar as a hedge for currency portfolios against GPR. The authors detect a positive connectedness in the short term between all pairs of the variables analyzed in most countries. (4) Both foreign exchange and equity markets are exposed to higher levels of systemic risk in the period of the Russian invasion of Ukraine.

Originality/value

This study provides information that supports investors, regulators and executive managers in developing countries. The impact of sentiment investor with GPR intensified the co-movements of stocks market and exchange market during 2021–2022, which overlaps with period of the Russian invasion of Ukraine.

Details

Review of Behavioral Finance, vol. 16 no. 3
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1940-5979

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 10 May 2023

Robert M. Hull, Ashfaq Habib and Muhammad Asif Khan

The main purpose is to explore the impact of major stock markets on China's market where major markets are represented by former G8 nations (current G7 and Russia).

Abstract

Purpose

The main purpose is to explore the impact of major stock markets on China's market where major markets are represented by former G8 nations (current G7 and Russia).

Design/methodology/approach

The article makes use of: stationarity tests (ADF and PP unit root); long-run correlation tests (Johansen integration involving trace and maximum eigenvalue); impact of G8 markets on China (VECM test); influence of G8 markets on volatility in China's market (variance decomposition analysis) and, effect from shocks in G8 markets on China (impulse response function).

Findings

Using a period of 2009–2019 that avoids detecting linkages caused by interdependencies created by two major international crises, the article offers four major findings. First, except for Germany and Russia, G8 markets have a significant causal influence on China with UK having the greatest. Second, G8 markets are not the major source of short-run fluctuation in China's market but over time exercise a noteworthy collective impact with UK having the greatest impact. Third, there are occasions for international portfolio diversification with China's market providing greater diversification than G8 nations. Fourth, all markets provide a short-run window of abnormal profit.

Research limitations/implications

The indexes used to represent national markets are assumed to be adequate representations.

Practical implications

Short-term abnormal profits exist. Investing in China, compared to G8 countries, offers greater portfolio diversification possibilities.

Social implications

Removal of trade and investment barriers cause greater market integration.

Originality/value

By using recent data, this study reveals that G8 stock markets influence China's market.

Details

Managerial Finance, vol. 49 no. 11
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 0307-4358

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 29 September 2022

Maria Babar, Habib Ahmad and Imran Yousaf

This study examines the information transmission (return and volatility spillovers) among energy commodities (crude oil, natural gas, Brent oil, heating oil, gasoil, gasoline) and…

Abstract

Purpose

This study examines the information transmission (return and volatility spillovers) among energy commodities (crude oil, natural gas, Brent oil, heating oil, gasoil, gasoline) and Asian stock markets which are net importers of energy (China, India, Indonesia, Malaysia, Korea, Pakistan, Philippines, Taiwan, Thailand).

Design/methodology/approach

The information transmission is investigated by employing the spillover index of Diebold and Yilmaz, using daily data for the period January 2000 to May 2021.

Findings

A Strong connectedness is documented between the two classes of asset, especially during crisis periods. Our findings reveal that most of the energy markets, except gasoil and natural gas, are net transmitters of information, whereas all the stock markets, excluding Indonesia and Korea, are net recipients.

Practical implications

The findings are helpful for portfolio managers and institutional investors allocating funds to various asset classes in times of crisis.

Originality/value

All data is original.

Details

Asia-Pacific Journal of Business Administration, vol. 16 no. 2
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1757-4323

Keywords

Open Access
Article
Publication date: 4 April 2023

Reetika Verma

The study aims is to explore the cointegration level among major Asian stock indices from pre- COVID-19 to post COVID-19 times.

Abstract

Purpose

The study aims is to explore the cointegration level among major Asian stock indices from pre- COVID-19 to post COVID-19 times.

Design/methodology/approach

Johansen cointegration test is employed to know the long run relationship among the stock market indices of Hong Kong, Indonesia, Malaysia, Korea, India, Japan, China, Taiwan, Israel and South Korea. The empirical testing was done to analyze whether any significant change has been induced by the COVID-19 pandemic on the cointegrating relationship of the selected markets or not. Through statistics of trace test and maximum eigen value, total number of cointegrating equations present among all the indices during different study periods were analyzed.

Findings

The presence of cointegration was found during all the sample periods and the findings suggests that the selected stock markets are associated with each other in general. During COVID-19 crisis period the cointegration level was reduced and again it regained its original level in the next year and again reduced in the subsequent next year. So, the cointegrating relationship among selected stock market indices remains dynamic and no evidence of impact of COVID-19 on this dynamism was found.

Originality/value

The study has explored the level of cointegration among the major stock indices of Asian nations in the pre, during, post-crisis and the most recent periods. The interconnectedness of the stock markets during the COVID-19 times has been compared with similar periods in different years immediately preceding and succeeding the COVID-19 times which has not been done in any of the existing study.

Details

IIM Ranchi journal of management studies, vol. 3 no. 1
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 2754-0138

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 8 August 2023

Mouna Aloui, Besma Hamdi, Aviral Kumar Tiwari and Ahmed Jeribi

This study aims to explore the impact of cryptocurrencies (Bitcoin, Ethereum, Monero and Ripple) on the gold, WTI, VIX index, G7 and the BRICS index before and during COVID-19.

Abstract

Purpose

This study aims to explore the impact of cryptocurrencies (Bitcoin, Ethereum, Monero and Ripple) on the gold, WTI, VIX index, G7 and the BRICS index before and during COVID-19.

Design/methodology/approach

This research analyzes the impact of cryptocurrencies (Bitcoin, Ethereum, Monero and Ripple) on the gold, WTI, VIX index, G7 and the BRICS index before and during COVID-19, using the quantile regression approach for the 2016–2020 period. In addition, to catch long- and short-run asymmetries of cryptocurrencies on aforementioned dependent variables, an asymmetric nonlinear co-integration (nonlinear autoregressive distributed lag [NARDL]) approach is applied.

Findings

The result of the quantile regression shows that in a high market, which corresponds to the 90th quantile, the FTSE MIB, CAC40, SSE, BSE 30, and BVSP stock market showed a statistically insignificant negative coefficient, on the Bitcoin price. In a middle and low markets, which correspond to the 0.2, 0.3 and 0.5th quantiles, the BVSP, FTSE MIB, S&P/TSX, SSE and Nikkei stock markets show statistically significant and positive on Bitcoin. Evidence from the NARDL shows a statistically significant positive impact of cryptocurrencies on the gold, WTI, VIX index, G7 and BRICS indices before and during COVID-19 pandemic.

Originality/value

These results can provide investors with valuable analysis and information and help them make the best decisions and adopt the best strategies. Therefore, future investigations may concentrate and examine the monetary and governmental policies to be adapted to face the COVID-19 pandemic’s dangerous effects on both the society and the economy. For this reason, investors should take this into account when making their asset allocation decisions. Moreover, the portfolio managers, such as index funds, may consider few eligible cryptocurrencies for their inclusion into the portfolio. However, the speculators present in both stock and crypto markets may opt for a spread strategy to improve their portfolio returns.

Details

International Journal of Law and Management, vol. 65 no. 6
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1754-243X

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 18 September 2023

Muhammad Rehan and Mustafa Gül

This study aimed to examine the efficient market hypothesis (EMH) for the stock markets of 12 member countries of the Organization of Islamic Cooperation (OIC), such as Egypt…

Abstract

Purpose

This study aimed to examine the efficient market hypothesis (EMH) for the stock markets of 12 member countries of the Organization of Islamic Cooperation (OIC), such as Egypt, Indonesia, Jordan, Kuwait, Malaysia, Morocco, Pakistan, Saudi Arabia, Tunisia, Turkey and the United Arab Emirates (UAE), during the global financial crisis (GFC) and the COVID-19 (CV-19) epidemic. The objective was to classify the effects on individual indices.

Design/methodology/approach

The study employed the multifractal detrended fluctuation analysis (MF-DFA) on daily returns. After calculation and analysis, the data were then divided into two significant events: the GFC and the CV-19 pandemic. Additionally, the market deficiency measure (MDM) was utilized to assess and rank market efficiency.

Findings

The findings indicate that the average returns series exhibited persistent and non-persistent patterns during the GFC and the CV-19 pandemic, respectively. The study employed MF-DFA to analyze the sequence of normal returns. The results suggest that the average returns series displayed persistent and non-persistent patterns during the GFC and the CV-19 pandemic, respectively. Furthermore, all markets demonstrated efficiency during the two crisis periods, with Turkey and Tunisia exhibiting the highest and deepest levels of efficiency, respectively. The multifractal properties were influenced by long-range correlations and fat-tailed distributions, with the latter being the primary contributor. Moreover, the impact of the fat-tailed distribution on multifractality was found to be more pronounced for indices with lower market efficiency. In conclusion, this study categorizes indices with low market efficiency during both crisis periods, which subsequently affect the distribution of assets among shareholders in the stock markets of OIC member countries.

Practical implications

Multifractal patterns, especially the long memory property observed in stock markets, can assist investors in formulating profitable investment strategies. Additionally, this study will contribute to a better understanding of market trends during similar events should they occur in the future.

Originality/value

This research marks the initial effort to assess the impact of the GFC and the CV19 pandemic on the efficiency of stock markets in OIC countries. This undertaking is of paramount importance due to the potential destabilizing and harmful effects of these events on global financial markets and societal well-being. Furthermore, to the best of the authors’ knowledge, this study represents the first investigation utilizing the MFDFA method to analyze the primary stock markets of OIC countries, encompassing both the GFC and CV19 crises.

Details

The Journal of Risk Finance, vol. 24 no. 5
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1526-5943

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 28 June 2022

Hayet Soltani and Mouna Boujelbene Abbes

This study aims to investigate the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on both of stock prices and investor's sentiment in China during the onset of the COVID-19 crisis.

Abstract

Purpose

This study aims to investigate the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on both of stock prices and investor's sentiment in China during the onset of the COVID-19 crisis.

Design/methodology/approach

In this study, the ADCC-GARCH model was used to analyze the asymmetric volatility and the time-varying conditional correlation among the Chinese stock market, the investors' sentiment and its variation. The authors relied on Diebold and Yilmaz (2012, 2014) methodology to construct network-associated measures. Then, the wavelet coherence model was applied to explore the co-movements between these variables. To check the robustness of the study results, the authors referred to the RavenPack COVID sentiments and the Chinese VIX, as other measures of the investor's sentiment using daily data from December 2019 to December 2021.

Findings

Using the ADCC-GARCH model, a strong co-movement was found between the investor's sentiment and the Shanghai index returns during the COVID-19 pandemic. The study results provide a significant peak of connectivity between the investor's sentiment and the Chinese stock market return during the 2015–2016 and the end of 2019–2020 turmoil periods. These periods coincide, respectively, with the 2015 Chinese economy recession and the COVID-19 pandemic outbreak. Furthermore, the wavelet coherence analysis confirms the ADCC results, which revealed that the used proxies of the investor's sentiment can detect the Chinese investors' behavior especially during the health crisis.

Practical implications

This study provides two main types of implications: on the one hand, for investors since it helps them to understand the economic outlook and accordingly design their portfolio strategy and allocate decisions to optimize their portfolios. On the other hand, for portfolios managers, who should pay attention to the volatility spillovers between investor sentiment and the Chinese stock market to predict the financial market dynamics during crises periods and hedge their portfolios.

Originality/value

This study attempted to examine the time-varying interactions between the investor's sentiment proxies and the stock market dynamics. Findings showed that the investor's sentiment is considered a prominent channel of shock spillovers during the COVID-19 crisis, which typically confirms the behavioral contagion theory.

Details

Asia-Pacific Journal of Business Administration, vol. 15 no. 5
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1757-4323

Keywords

Access

Year

Last 6 months (1619)

Content type

Article (1619)
1 – 10 of over 1000