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The purpose of this stud is to analyze the financialization effect on oil prices.

This study applied the technique of multibreak point analysis with Bai and Perron test plus VAR methodology.

Findings revealed that there was no effect on oil prices.

To the best of the author’s knowledge, this is the first paper combining the multibreakpoint analysis with VAR for the period analyzed in the present work.

In response to the problem of insufficient traction/braking adhesion force caused by the existence of the third-body medium on the rail surface, this study aims to analyze the utilization of wheel-rail adhesion coefficient under different medium conditions and propose relevant measures for reasonable and optimized utilization of adhesion to ensure the traction/braking performance and operation safety of trains.

Based on the PLS-160 wheel-rail adhesion simulation test rig, the study investigates the variation patterns of maximum utilized adhesion characteristics on the rail surface under different conditions of small creepage and large slip. Through statistical analysis of multiple sets of experimental data, the statistical distribution patterns of maximum utilized adhesion on the rail surface are obtained, and a method for analyzing wheel-rail adhesion redundancy based on normal distribution is proposed. The study analyzes the utilization of traction/braking adhesion, as well as adhesion redundancy, for different medium under small creepage and large slip conditions. Based on these findings, relevant measures for the reasonable and optimized utilization of adhesion are derived.

When the third-body medium exists on the rail surface, the train should adopt the low-level service braking to avoid the braking skidding by extending the braking distance. Compared with the current adhesion control strategy of small creepage, adopting appropriate strategies to control the train’s adhesion coefficient near the second peak point of the adhesion coefficient-slip ratio curve in large slip can effectively improve the traction/braking adhesion redundancy and the upper limit of adhesion utilization, thereby ensuring the traction/braking performance and operation safety of the train.

Most existing studies focus on the wheel-rail adhesion coefficient values and variation patterns under different medium conditions, without considering whether the rail surface with different medium can provide sufficient traction/braking utilized adhesion coefficient for the train. Therefore, there is a risk of traction overspeeding/braking skidding. This study analyzes whether the rail surface with different medium can provide sufficient traction/braking utilized adhesion coefficient for the train and whether there is redundancy. Based on these findings, relevant measures for the reasonable and optimized utilization of adhesion are derived to further ensure operation safety of the train.

Futurist Jim Dator provides a personal insight of how he “sees” the past, present, and futures of Hawaiian tourism. The paper aims to discuss this issue.

Ian Yeoman interviews one of the world's most prominent and respected futurists, Professor Jim Dator, from the Futures Research Center of the University of Hawaii at Manoa's Political Science Department.

Like a climatologist, futurists discuss long‐term futures which are very uncertain, controversial, and often frightening stories. The past tells how the present occurred. Understanding that story is essential before considering the future. The growth of tourism is a fabulous story dependent on many developments whose future is uncertain. The tourism industry may want a “more of the same” trajectory of continued economic growth but a number changes are on the horizon which Dator calls “The Unholy Trinity,” namely the end of cheap and abundant energy; a profoundly unstable environment and a dysfunctional global economic system. Dator concludes that no government now governs satisfactorily, and so the future of tourism is extremely precarious and uncertain.

The interview provides both insight into how tourism has evolved and foresight of what could occur in the futures. Central to the interview is Dator's identification of the Unholy Trinity, Plus One, that suggests that the future will not neither be like the present nor like the future the tourism industry has hoped for in terms of continued economic growth. The originality and value of Dator's frank views are thought provoking, going beyond present wisdom and comfort.

This paper is an empirical attempt to verify the interplay between political change, fleet nationality, and the evolution of shipping networks. North Korea offers a good example of a socialist maritime country that has experienced much contrasting geopolitical contexts since 1990. A database of vessel movements between North Korean ports and other ports is analyzed. Main results show differences between North Korean and foreign fleets in terms of traffic (vessel size, age, berthing time) and geographical coverage. South Korean ports tend to play a new role in the reorganization of North Korean-related flows in Northeast Asia.

The world is changing and key change agents include climate change and scarcity of resources. The purpose of this paper is to address how New Zealand and tourism could address the future and generate appropriate strategic responses.

Using the process of scenario analysis and drawing upon recent research from the www.tourism2050.com project, this paper describes the circumstances, drivers, economic consequences and key decisions that New Zealand would have to take in order to position itself as an eco paradise. The background to the scenario presumes overarching behaviours in a cooperative world in which resources are scarce.

The scenario portrays a future of collective individualism, where a high degree of personal freedom exists but within the constraints of a world in which there is a scarcity of resources. A communitarian ethos drives policy making with an emphasis on efficient resource use and waste minimisation. New Zealand is a nation favoured by climate change. Environmental intellectual property is one of the nation's key resources and in the spirit of achieving a global environmental equilibrium these technologies are shared with the rest of the world. Life is simple. Competitive individualism is equated with excess and resource waste, while cooperation, harmony, and the continuation of a global cooperative psyche are seen as the foundation stones of the continued, relatively comfortable survival of humanity. Tourism is a luxury and activities are environmentally ethical. Visitors are well‐off, purposeful, highly respectful and careful to prove their worth.

Eco paradise represents the classic tale of a prisoner's dilemma in which decision makers and consumers ponder the betterment of humankind against individualism. The scenario concludes with a strategic map of the core decisions New Zealand's tourism industry would have to take. The significance of the paper is its portrayal of a possible future to industry leaders, researchers and stakeholders thereby facilitating decision making in order to adapt to this future.

The purpose of this paper is to portray the future of tourism in New Zealand based upon a philosophy of sustainability and cultural identity as a response to the present 2025 Tourism Strategy.

The research deployed a scenario planning methodology resulting in four portraits of the future.

Environmental issues and global migration are the key issues that will shape the future of New Zealand tourism. In order to address these issues four scenarios were constructed. New Zealand Wonderland portrays a future based upon a grounded international reputation for environmentalism driven by good governance, climate change targets and ecotourism. Indiana Jones and the Search for Cultural Identity position a future driven by rapid growth and unregulated air travel resulting in environmental degradation. A Peaceful Mixture is a balance of socio‐cultural and environmental dimensions of sustainability at the centre of a tourism product shaped upon Maori culture and economic prosperity. The final scenario, New Zealand in Depression, is the worst possible outcome for New Zealand's tourism industry as the three dimensions of economy, community, and environment are not at equilibrium. New Zealand would be over‐polluted with an uncontrolled number of migrants.

The research was a social construction of ten experts’ views on the future of sustainable tourism.

New Zealand's present approach to the future of tourism is shaped by the 2025 Tourism Framework (http://tourism2025.org.nz/). This is derived from a business perspective and a neoliberal political philosophy and it is void of the words ecotourism and sustainability. This paper argues that the present strategy will fail because of community disengagement that proposes a range of alternative directions based upon a political discourse of sustainability and shaped by environmental credentials and cultural identity.

This study aims to investigate the influences of global uncertainty indicators volatility on the domestic socioeconomic and environmental vulnerability in a sample of 54 developing countries.

The two-step system generalized method of moments estimator is recruited to deal with autoregression and endogeneity matter in our dynamic panel data. Seven different global uncertainty indicators (US trade uncertainty; world trade uncertainty; economic policy uncertainty; world commodities and oil prices; the geopolitical risk index and the world uncertainty index) have been mobilized and compared for their empirical impact on the economic (growth and GDP), social (the misery index and income inequality) and environmental (CO₂ emissions) vulnerabilities of nations.

Our empirical estimations suggest that the socioeconomic and environmental vulnerability cannot be solved through the same pattern: all decrease of a particular aspect will necessarily have a cost and an opposite influence on at least one of the other aspects of the nations' vulnerability.

The originality of this article is to combine these three dimensions of vulnerability in the same investigation. To our knowledge, our research is one of the few providing a joint analysis of the influence of global uncertainty on the economic and socioenvironmental countries' vulnerabilities – given the fact social, economic and environmental aspects are at the heart of the UN sustainable goals, our study can be seen as an investigation of the nations' capabilities to work proactively on meaningful sustainable goals in an increasingly uncertain world.

The purpose of this paper is to profile the development of a bicycle parking hub at the University of Tasmania to illustrate how the Academic Operations Sustainability Integration Program promotes real change through the engagement of stakeholders from across an institution to deliver campus sustainability. This case study outlines one example of how place-based learning initiatives focused on campus sustainability challenges have delivered authentic education for sustainability in the Australasian higher education setting.

This case study outlines the process through which a cross-disciplinary place-based learning initiative was designed, implemented and evaluated over a three-year period. The evaluation of the project was designed to assess the impact of this education for sustainability approach on both operational and student learning outcomes, and to make recommendations on the continuation of place-based learning initiatives through the Academic Operations Sustainability Integration Program.

This case study illustrates how learning can be focused around finding solutions to real world problems through the active participation of staff and students as members of a learning community. This experience helped the authors to better understand how place-based learning initiatives can help deliver authentic education for sustainability and the success factors required for engaging staff and students in such efforts.

The case study highlights an example of an education for sustainability initiative that was mutually driven by the operational and learning objectives of an institution, and specifically the ways in which the engagement of staff and students from across an institution can lead to the successful integration of these two often disparate institutional goals.