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1 – 10 of 35This study aims to elucidate the dynamics of monetary and fiscal policy interactions in Brazil, focusing on the impacts of positive shocks in government consumption and interest…
Abstract
Purpose
This study aims to elucidate the dynamics of monetary and fiscal policy interactions in Brazil, focusing on the impacts of positive shocks in government consumption and interest rates. By comparing rational and behavioral agent responses, it clarifies how these frameworks influence gross domestic product (GDP), inflation, private and government consumption and nominal interest rates.
Design/methodology/approach
The study employs a new Keynesian dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) model with Bayesian estimation from 2000Q1 to 2022Q4, capturing rational and behavioral behaviors with adjustments for Brazilian economic idiosyncrasies. Impulse response functions (IRF) assess the dynamic effects of policy shocks, providing a comparative analysis of the two frameworks.
Findings
Behavioral agents show greater initial sensitivity to policy shocks, causing more pronounced fluctuations in GDP, inflation and private consumption compared to rational agents. Over time, the behavioral approach leads to a more robust recovery, while the rational approach results in a quicker return to equilibrium but less pronounced long-term recovery. The study also finds fiscal policy can partially offset the negative impacts of monetary tightening, with a more delayed effect in the behavioral model.
Originality/value
This paper provides insights into the interplay between monetary and fiscal policies under different agent expectations, emphasizing the importance of incorporating behavioral elements into macroeconomic models to better capture policy dynamics in emerging markets.
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Afees Adebare Salisu, Abeeb Olatunde Olaniran and Xuan Vinh Vo
This study aims to contribute to the literature on migration by examining the nexus between migration-related fears and housing affordability in France, Germany, the UK and the…
Abstract
Purpose
This study aims to contribute to the literature on migration by examining the nexus between migration-related fears and housing affordability in France, Germany, the UK and the USA using new datasets for migration-related fears.
Design/methodology/approach
This study adopts the feasible quasi-generalized least squares approach wherein a predictor can be isolated in the estimation process. Thus, rather than specifying a multi-predictor model that may also lead to parameter proliferation, a single-predictor model (for the predictor of interest) is formulated while also accounting for other salient features resulting from suppressing other important factors that may not be of interest to the current study. Such salient features include persistence, endogeneity and conditional heteroscedasticity issues.
Findings
Overall, the results show heterogeneous responses of housing affordability to migration fears across the four developed countries, as the latter deteriorates housing affordability in Germany and the USA and improves it in France and the UK. Similarly, the GFC makes housing less affordable in all four countries as low interest rate passes the mediation test in the nexus. The results, especially for low interest rates, are robust to different uncertainty measures.
Research limitations/implications
As is often the case with economic phenomena, no single model can capture all the factors influencing an economic variable. Thus, besides examining the nexus between migration fears and housing affordability, the authors also account for the role of GDP per capita, given the influence of population and income dynamics on housing affordability. However, incorporating GDP per capita alone does not substantially enhance the model’s ability to predict housing affordability. Future research should explore additional macroeconomic and social factors, such as human capital development, to further enhance this subject.
Practical implications
The findings have significant implications for policymakers regarding the use of low interest rates to counteract the adverse effects of migration-related fear on housing affordability. Specifically, to mitigate the potential negative impact of migration and the associated fear on housing affordability, monetary authorities could adopt a more accommodative stance on mortgages. By allowing real estate investors to obtain loans at lower rates, this approach would help increase housing supply and reduce the housing gap exacerbated by migration influx.
Originality/value
The values of this study lie in its examination of housing affordability in relation to migration fears from both the demand and supply sides of the market. Furthermore, the analyses are conducted to cover out-of-sample forecast evaluation as in-sample predictability may not guarantee out-of-sample prediction.
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Michael Chak Sham Wong, Emil Ka Ho Chan and Imran Yousaf
This paper examines the impact of Central Bank Digital Currencies (CBDCs), regulated stablecoins and tokenized traditional assets on the cryptocurrency market, following the…
Abstract
Purpose
This paper examines the impact of Central Bank Digital Currencies (CBDCs), regulated stablecoins and tokenized traditional assets on the cryptocurrency market, following the guidelines set by the Basel Committee. This study aims to analyze the implications for secure storage, cross-border transfers and necessary investments.
Design/methodology/approach
The paper uses a policy analysis approach to assess the potential effects of the Basel Committee’s regulations on CBDCs, regulated stablecoins and tokenized traditional assets. It explores their impact on the cryptoasset market, strategies of central and commercial banks, payment systems and risk management.
Findings
The adoption of CBDCs, regulated stablecoins and tokenized traditional assets is expected to grow rapidly in the coming years. It raises concerns about secure storage, cross-border transfers and required investments. Central banks are likely to introduce CBDCs and authorize stablecoin issuance, aiming for efficient monetary policies and risk management. Basel III regulations may lead to asset tokenization by banks, reducing asset size and increasing fee-based income.
Originality/value
This paper provides insights into the potential impact of the Basel Committee's regulations on CBDCs, regulated stablecoins and tokenized traditional assets. It contributes to the understanding of the evolving cryptoasset market and the strategies of central and commercial banks in adopting these technologies. The findings offer valuable information for policymakers, regulators and market participants in navigating the changing landscape of digital assets.
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Simran and Anil K. Sharma
This study aims to explore the intricate relationship between uncertainty indicators and volatility of commodity futures, with a specific focus on agriculture and energy sectors.
Abstract
Purpose
This study aims to explore the intricate relationship between uncertainty indicators and volatility of commodity futures, with a specific focus on agriculture and energy sectors.
Design/methodology/approach
The authors analyse the volatility of Indian agriculture and energy futures using the GARCH-MIDAS model, taking into account different types of uncertainty factors. The evaluation of out-sample predictive capability involves the application of out-sample R-squared test and computation of various loss functions.
Findings
The research outcomes underscore the significant impact of diverse uncertainty factors such as domestic economic policy uncertainty (EPU), global EPU (GEPU), US EPU and geopolitical risk (GPR) on long-run volatility of Indian energy and agriculture (agri) futures. Additionally, the study demonstrates that GPR exhibits superior predictive capability for crude oil futures volatility, while domestic EPU stands out as an effective predictor for agri futures, particularly castor seed and guar gum.
Practical implications
The study offers practical implications for market participants and policymakers to adopt a comprehensive perspective, incorporating diverse uncertainty factors, for informed decision-making and effective risk management in commodity markets.
Originality/value
The research makes an inaugural attempt to examine the impact of domestic and global uncertainty indicators on modelling and predicting volatility in energy and agri futures. The distinctive feature of considering an emerging market also adds a novel dimension to the research landscape.
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Mohit Kumar and P. Krishna Prasanna
To investigate the role of domestic and foreign economic policy uncertainty (EPU) in driving the corporate bond yields in emerging markets.
Abstract
Purpose
To investigate the role of domestic and foreign economic policy uncertainty (EPU) in driving the corporate bond yields in emerging markets.
Design/methodology/approach
The study utilizes monthly data from January 2008 to June 2023 from the selected emerging economies. The data analysis is conducted using univariate, bivariate and multivariate statistical techniques. The study includes bond market liquidity and global volatility (VIX) as control variables.
Findings
Domestic EPU has a significant role in driving corporate bond yields in these markets. The study finds weak evidence to support the role of the USA EPU in influencing corporate bond yields in emerging economies. Domestic EPU holds more weight and influence than the EPU originating from the United States of America.
Research limitations/implications
The findings provide useful insights to policymakers about the potential impact of policy uncertainty on corporate bond yields and enable them to make informed decisions regarding economic policies that maintains financial stability. Understanding the relationship between EPU and corporate bond yields enables investors to optimize their investment decisions in emerging market economies, opens the scope for further research on the interaction between EPU and volatility and other attributes of fixed income markets.
Originality/value
Focuses specifically on the emerging market economies in Asia, providing an in-depth analysis of the dynamics and challenges faced by these countries, Explores the influence of both domestic and the USA EPU on corporate bond yields in emerging markets, offering valuable insights into the transmission channels and impact of EPU from various sources.
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This research aims to examine the time-varying behavior of the Weekend, Turn-of-the-Month, January, and Halloween effects in eight foreign exchange rates against the U.S. dollar…
Abstract
Purpose
This research aims to examine the time-varying behavior of the Weekend, Turn-of-the-Month, January, and Halloween effects in eight foreign exchange rates against the U.S. dollar from the Adaptive Market Hypothesis (AMH) perspective. It also explores whether these anomalies can generate excess returns compared to a buy-and-hold strategy.
Design/methodology/approach
Using daily return data from January 2004 to December 2023 in a rolling-window framework, the study employs the Concordance Coefficient test and AR-GARCH models to assess the time-varying behavior of four calendar anomalies. It also assesses the statistical significance of the trading strategies implied by these anomalies using t-tests and applies F-tests for subperiod analysis.
Findings
The results reveal a generalized time-varying presence of calendar anomalies in emerging currencies and, to a lesser extent, developed currencies. However, the trading strategies implied by these anomalies generally did not show statistical significance, except for the Turn-of-the-Month effect, which exhibited statistically significant unprofitability.
Originality/value
The study pioneers an analysis of five calendar anomalies across various currencies from the standpoint of the AMH and proposes case-specific explanations for their occurrence. It also examines the potential for the anomalies’ implied trading strategies to generate excess returns compared to a straightforward buy-and-hold strategy. Additionally, the study introduces the recently developed Concordance Coefficient test as a valuable alternative to other non-parametric methods.
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Emmanuel Joel Aikins Abakah, Nader Trabelsi, Aviral Kumar Tiwari and Samia Nasreen
This study aims to provide empirical evidence on the return and volatility spillover structures between Bitcoin, Fintech stocks and Asian-Pacific equity markets over time and…
Abstract
Purpose
This study aims to provide empirical evidence on the return and volatility spillover structures between Bitcoin, Fintech stocks and Asian-Pacific equity markets over time and during different market conditions, and their implications for portfolio management.
Design/methodology/approach
We use Time-varying parameter vector autoregressive and quantile frequency connectedness approach models for the connectedness framework, in conjunction with Diebold and Yilmaz’s connectivity approach. Additionally, we use the minimum connectedness portfolio model to highlight implications for portfolio management.
Findings
Regarding the uncertainty of the whole system, we show a small contribution from Bitcoin and Fintech, with a higher contribution from the four Asian Tigers (Taiwan, Singapore, Hong Kong and Thailand). The quantile and frequency analyses also demonstrate that the link among assets is symmetric, with short-term spillovers having the largest influence. Finally, Bitcoins and Fintech stocks are excellent diversification and hedging instruments for Asian equity investors.
Practical implications
There is an instantaneous, symmetric and dynamic return and volatility spillover between Asian stock markets, Fintech and Bitcoin. This conclusion should be considered by investors and portfolio managers when creating risk diversification strategies, as well as by policymakers when implementing their financial stability policies.
Originality/value
The study’s major contribution is to analyze the volatility spillover between Bitcoin, Fintech and Asian stock markets, which is dynamic, symmetric and immediate.
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Lien Thi Nguyen, Minh Thi Nguyen and The Manh Nguyen
This paper examines the impact of macroeconomic volatility on stock volatility, both under normal conditions and during the COVID-19 pandemic in Vietnam.
Abstract
Purpose
This paper examines the impact of macroeconomic volatility on stock volatility, both under normal conditions and during the COVID-19 pandemic in Vietnam.
Design/methodology/approach
We extend the existing Exponential Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity model by adding a new component: the thresholds – the levels of macroeconomic volatility at which the market may respond differently. These thresholds are estimated for both positive and negative volatility.
Findings
The impact of macroeconomic volatility on stock volatility is asymmetric: there are thresholds of macroeconomic volatility at which its pattern changes. These thresholds are higher in the case of positive volatility compared with negative volatility. The thresholds were also higher during the COVID-19 pandemic. Macroeconomic variables influence stock volatility differently depending on market conditions. While GDP is more significant in normal periods, interest rates affect it in both normal and unstable phases.
Research limitations/implications
Our models consider only two variables representing macroeconomic variables: interest rate and GDP. Furthermore, only one lag period of the variables is included in the analysis. In the future, more macrovariables and longer lags could be included when computational techniques advance.
Practical implications
Policymakers should consider the impact of macroeconomic volatility on the stock market when designing policies, especially at thresholds. Similarly, investors should pay more attention to macroeconomic volatility when constructing and managing their portfolios, particularly when such volatility is close to thresholds.
Originality/value
The inclusion of thresholds as parameters to be estimated into the model provides more insights into the impact of macroeconomic variables on stock volatility.
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Faten Ben Bouheni, Mouwafac Sidaoui, Dima Leshchinskii, Bryan Zaremba and Mousa Albashrawi
The purpose of this study is to investigate how the implementation of digital banking services (mobile applications) by globally systemically important banks (G-SIBs) affects…
Abstract
Purpose
The purpose of this study is to investigate how the implementation of digital banking services (mobile applications) by globally systemically important banks (G-SIBs) affects banks’ performance in the USA and Europe from 2005 to 2022.
Design/methodology/approach
The study employs advanced econometric methods to analyze the link between deposits and banking performance, utilizing linear regressions and multivariate Bayesian regressions.
Findings
Our results indicate that customer deposits positively impact a bank’s performance after the introduction of the mobile application feature of check deposits, whereas social risk negatively impacts banking financial performance. These findings support the hypothesis that technology implementation improves the profitability and growth of traditional banks.
Research limitations/implications
While findings are robust econometrically in linear and Bayesian regressions, variables reflecting the digitalization of banks remain limited. For instance, the number of mobile users or the volume of digital transactions per bank since the implementation of the mobile app is not available.
Practical implications
In a rapidly growing technology and constantly changing customers behaviors, this research has practical implications from bankers’ perspective to continue the technological innovation efforts and from regulators’ perspective to strengthen requirements for the digital banking services.
Social implications
We provide empirical evidence that including a banking app for smartphones’ users for remote banking services benefit the financial performance of banks. However, the social risk remains significant for banks in terms of customers' satisfaction, data privacy and cybersecurity.
Originality/value
This paper employs an innovative approach to create a mobile app “discriminatory” factor and examine the relationship between deposits and banks’ performance before and after the introduction of a mobile app for too-big-to-fail banks in Europe and the USA. Additionally, we consider the social risk component of the ESG score, as a bank’s decision to implement mobile applications and technology for its customers potentially affects social risks associated with customer satisfaction and technology usability.
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Yu Xia and Shuxin Guo
We are the first to investigate the relationship between seasoned equity offerings (SEOs) and anchoring on historical high prices in China.
Abstract
Purpose
We are the first to investigate the relationship between seasoned equity offerings (SEOs) and anchoring on historical high prices in China.
Design/methodology/approach
We use the ratio of the recent closing price to its historical high in the previous 12–60 months (anchoring-high-price ratio) to study its impact on the market timing of SEOs.
Findings
Empirical results show that the anchoring-high-price ratio significantly and positively affects the probability of additional stock issuances. Contrary to the USA market, the Chinese stock market reacts negatively to the SEOs at historical highs. Moreover, the anchoring-high-price ratio exacerbates the negative effect of announcements and leads to long-term underperformance. Finally, we investigate the impact of the anchoring-high-price ratio on a company’s capital structure, showing that the additional issuance anchoring on historical highs reduces the company’s leverage ratio in the long run. Overall, our findings support the anchoring theory and can help understand better the anchoring behavior of managers and the company’s decision on additional stock issuances.
Originality/value
We are the first to use the anchoring-high-price ratio to study the timing of SEOs. We find that the anchoring-high-price ratio positively affects the probability of SEOs. Unlike the USA, the Chinese stock market reacts negatively to SEOs at high prices. SEOs anchoring on historical highs reduce a firm’s leverage ratio in the long run. Finally, our results support the anchoring theory.
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