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Publication date: 9 September 2020

Lin Chen, Junbo Wang, Chunchi Wu and Hongquan Zhu

Although stock price co-movement has been examined extensively, its causes are not well understood. Using a decomposition method, we extract three information components from the…

Abstract

Although stock price co-movement has been examined extensively, its causes are not well understood. Using a decomposition method, we extract three information components from the turnover rate: market information, firm-specific information, and investors' opinion divergence. We find that market information strengthens stock price co-movement, whereas firm-specific information weakens it. Moreover, our analysis shows that divergence of investors' opinion increases stock price variations but weakens price co-movement.

Article
Publication date: 11 March 2022

Fanglin Shen, Quantong Guo, Hongyan Liang and Zilong Liu

The purpose of this paper is to investigate the relationship between investors' divergence of opinions and the asset prices of foreign stocks and also examine the effect of home…

Abstract

Purpose

The purpose of this paper is to investigate the relationship between investors' divergence of opinions and the asset prices of foreign stocks and also examine the effect of home market country-level factors on the influence of divergency of opinions on stock price.

Design/methodology/approach

The authors employ panel data estimation with fixed effects to examine the host market response in divergent opinions to the earnings announcements. The paper uses the American Depositary Receipts (ADRs) of 42 countries from 1985 to 2011.

Findings

The authors find a negative relationship between differences of opinions and excess quarterly earnings announcement returns, and investors do process information asymmetrically based on good and bad earnings shocks. In addition, the authors find the negative relationship between divergent opinions and excess earnings announcement returns in ADRs is more pronounced in countries with short-sales restrictions, while other home-market country-level factors – the enforcement of insider trading law, legal origin, investor protection and rating on accounting standard – do not influence the relationship between investors' divergency of opinion and stock returns.

Originality/value

This paper is among the first to bring asymmetric effects on convergence in Miller framework and enhance the understanding of price convergence documented in Miller (1977). In addition, this study incorporates home-market country-level factors in explaining the relationship between investors' divergency of opinions and stock returns.

Details

International Journal of Managerial Finance, vol. 19 no. 2
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1743-9132

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 15 June 2020

Nischay Arora and Balwinder Singh

The purpose of this paper is to study the pattern of long-run performance of small and medium enterprises (SMEs) initial public offerings (IPOs) and examine the firm- and…

Abstract

Purpose

The purpose of this paper is to study the pattern of long-run performance of small and medium enterprises (SMEs) initial public offerings (IPOs) and examine the firm- and issue-related determinants of long-run performance of SME IPOs in India.

Design/methodology/approach

The 3 6, 9 and 12 months share returns of Indian SME IPOs is studied using event time methodologies, i.e. buy and hold returns, cumulative abnormal returns and wealth relatives on a sample of 375 SME IPOs issued during February 2012 to May 2018. Additionally, ordinary least square regression has been used to investigate the determinants of long-run performance of SME IPOs on a reduced sample of 104 because of non-availability of price observations.

Findings

The findings reveal that Indian SME IPOs exhibit long-run overperformance contradicting the international evidences of underperformance, and this overperformance is significantly evident using buy and hold abnormal return (BHAR). Furthermore, based on the divergence of opinion hypothesis, fads theory and windows of opportunity hypothesis, the results reveal that on one hand, issue size and oversubscription negatively affect BHAR, while on the other hand, auditor reputation, underwriter reputation, hot market, underpricing, inverse of issue price, profits prior to listing positively affect long-run performance. However, firm age, firm size, debt equity ratio, volatility and long-run performance computed through BHAR lacks significant relationship.

Research limitations/implications

The study relied on event time methodology of measuring aftermarket performance of one year because of the limited availability of price offerings. Hence, the study could be extended to analyze aftermarket returns over a period of three to five years to enable reaching the vivid conclusions. Calendar time methodology may also be used to compute abnormal returns.

Practical implications

The results based on the study provides an implication to the investors by providing them an opportunity to bank higher long-run returns by engaging in active and timely trading strategies. Nevertheless, the results also show that investors should be cautioned while taking investment decisions.

Originality/value

The study contributes to rising body of international literature by analyzing the larger and recent sample of IPOs issued from 2012 to 2018 listed on SME exchange.

Details

Journal of Asia Business Studies, vol. 15 no. 1
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1558-7894

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 12 March 2018

Cheedradevi Narayanasamy, Mamunur Rashid and Izani Ibrahim

The purpose of this paper is to bridge the gap between the theory underlying divergence of opinion (DOP) and a cognitive concept termed as attention by specifically focussing on…

Abstract

Purpose

The purpose of this paper is to bridge the gap between the theory underlying divergence of opinion (DOP) and a cognitive concept termed as attention by specifically focussing on the volume and price behaviour in initial public offering (IPO) settings.

Design/methodology/approach

Employing the hierarchical regression for a sample of 282 Malaysian fixed price IPOs issued from 2004 to 2014, this research investigated the effect of investors’ attention on other information that complements the information revealed by initial return on DOP. Measure of market adjusted turnover (AbTO) from non-IPO setting was used to capture the DOP in the after-market, while investors’ attention was on a dichotomise scale variable which was captured by the increase/decrease of the Google search index (GOGC2) on the month of listing compared to a month prior to listing.

Findings

The findings indicate that attention moderates the relationship between initial return (also surrogates underpriced IPOs) and DOP. The findings suggest that disagreement to initial returns is reduced, while liquidity in the after-market is promoted, when investors pay more attention to other information that complements price change. The findings also indicate that behavioural tendency is less when individual participation is weak.

Research limitations/implications

This paper highlights the importance of interaction effects in explaining the behavioural tendency in the after-market.

Practical implications

The weak individual investors’ participation and greater attention reduce the market inefficiency in Malaysia.

Originality/value

The finding is consistent with the view that the level of individual investors’ participation and information disclosure requirements has an implication on behavioural bias, which affects DOP in the after-market.

Details

Review of Behavioral Finance, vol. 10 no. 1
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1940-5979

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 16 May 2016

Yuandong Xu

The empirical studies have indicated that the information uncertainty is one of the reasons leading to the momentum effect in the stock market. Based on this conclusion, the…

Abstract

Purpose

The empirical studies have indicated that the information uncertainty is one of the reasons leading to the momentum effect in the stock market. Based on this conclusion, the concept of “information uncertainty” is deepened into the concept hierarchy of “information ambiguity,” the purpose of this paper is to explain the momentum effect in the China’s stock market from information ambiguity.

Design/methodology/approach

Based on the information ambiguity, the paper puts forward two hypotheses, portfolio analysis and cross-sectional regression analysis method were used to empirically test these hypothesis based on the weekly data.

Findings

The empirical results support the two hypotheses.

Originality/value

Finally, the paper discusses the importance from ambiguity to understand financial anomalies, such as momentum effect.

Details

China Finance Review International, vol. 6 no. 2
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 2044-1398

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 30 July 2019

Ali Albada, Soo-Wah Low and Othman Yong

The purpose of this paper is to examine the effects of prestige signals measured by the reputations of the underwriter, auditor and board size on the heterogeneity of investor

Abstract

Purpose

The purpose of this paper is to examine the effects of prestige signals measured by the reputations of the underwriter, auditor and board size on the heterogeneity of investor belief about the true value of IPO in the Malaysian IPO market.

Design/methodology/approach

This study employs a sample of 281 IPOs issued between January 2000 and December 2015. The relationship between prestige signals and investor heterogeneity, measured by first-day price range of IPOs, is analysed using cross-sectional regression and quantile regression technique.

Findings

Of the three prestige signals, the findings show that only underwriter reputation and board size have significant negative relationships with IPO first-day price range. This implies that IPOs underwritten by reputable underwriters and issuing firms with larger board members have lower heterogeneity of opinion among investors. The findings also show that underwriter and auditor reputations have negative relationship with IPO initial return, suggesting that these prestige signals help to reduce IPO under-pricing, which is a direct cost of raising capital for the issuing firm. Furthermore, the results indicate that offer price, initial return, over-subscription ratio and private placement are associated with higher first-day price range. However, the findings on offer size suggest that larger IPO offer size is associated with lower first-day price range. Overall, the findings suggest that firm’s prestige signals reduce opinion heterogeneity among investors and that lower investors’ heterogeneity leads to lower IPO under-pricing cost for issuing firms.

Originality/value

Despite the importance of underwriter, auditor and board member reputations in signalling firm’s quality and reducing the level of information asymmetry of the listing firm’s issues, research on the effects of prestige signals on investor heterogeneity remains unexplored. This study investigates the role of prestige signals in influencing investors’ heterogeneity in Malaysia. The authors conjecture that underwriter, auditor and board member with higher reputations are associated with lower levels of opinion heterogeneity among IPO investors.

Details

International Journal of Emerging Markets, vol. 15 no. 2
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1746-8809

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 27 August 2024

Ali Albada, Eimad Eldin Abusham, Chui Zi Ong and Khalid Al Qatiti

Empirical examinations of initial public offering (IPO) initial returns often rely heavily on linear regression models. However, these models can prove inefficient owing to their…

Abstract

Purpose

Empirical examinations of initial public offering (IPO) initial returns often rely heavily on linear regression models. However, these models can prove inefficient owing to their susceptibility to outliers, a common occurrence in IPO data. This study introduces a machine learning method, known as random forest, to address issues that linear regression may struggle to resolve.

Design/methodology/approach

The study’s sample comprises 352 fixed-priced IPOs from the year 2004 until 2021. A unique aspect of this research is its application of the random forest method. The accuracy of random forest in comparison to other methods is evaluated. The findings indicate that the random forest model significantly outperforms other methods in all of the evaluated aspects.

Findings

The variable importance measure indicates that investors’ demand, divergence of opinion among investors and offer price are the most crucial predictors of IPO initial returns. These determinants hold particular significance due to the widespread use of the fixed-price method in Malaysia, as this method amplifies the information asymmetry in the IPO market.

Originality/value

To the best of the authors’ knowledge, this study is among the pioneering works in Malaysian literature to apply the random forest method to address the constraints of conventional linear regression models. This is achieved by considering a more extensive array of factors and acknowledging the influence of outliers. Additionally, this study adds value to Malaysian literature by ranking and identifying the ex-ante information that best signals the issuing firm’s quality. This contribution facilitates prospective investors’ decision-making processes and provides issuing firms with effective means to communicate their value and quality to the IPO market.

Details

Managerial Finance, vol. ahead-of-print no. ahead-of-print
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 0307-4358

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 28 August 2020

Waqas Mehmood, Rasidah Mohd-Rashid, Norliza Che-Yahya and Chui Zi Ong

This study investigated the effect of pricing mechanism and oversubscription on the heterogeneity of investors' opinions on initial public offering (IPO) valuation.

Abstract

Purpose

This study investigated the effect of pricing mechanism and oversubscription on the heterogeneity of investors' opinions on initial public offering (IPO) valuation.

Design/methodology/approach

Besides the ordinary least square method, this study incorporated robust least square, stepwise least square and quantile regression methods to investigate the aftermarket behaviour of investors using the price range on the first day of trading of 82 IPOs listed on the Pakistan stock exchange.

Findings

The aftermarket behaviour of investors was found to be significantly influenced by the pricing mechanism, oversubscription, financial leverage, political stability and the risk of IPO, whereas control of corruption showed an insignificant impact. Concurrently, the findings showed that pricing mechanism and oversubscription played a crucial role in determining the intensity of investors' heterogeneous opinions at high levels of significance.

Originality/value

Pricing mechanism and oversubscription not only signal the quality of IPOs but also provide an important means for reducing the information asymmetry associated with new listings. Based on the literature review, it was found that both the pricing mechanism and oversubscription have yet to be explored in investigating the aftermarket behaviour of investors using the price range in the Pakistan IPO market. This study suggests that book building pricing mechanism and oversubscription are associated with lower heterogeneity in investorsopinions at a high level of significance.

Details

Review of Behavioral Finance, vol. 13 no. 5
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1940-5979

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 20 April 2020

Jundong (Jeff) Wang

This paper aims to investigate the association between analyst forecast dispersion and investors’ perceived uncertainty toward earnings.

Abstract

Purpose

This paper aims to investigate the association between analyst forecast dispersion and investors’ perceived uncertainty toward earnings.

Design/methodology/approach

A new measure for investors’ expectations of earnings announcement uncertainty is constructed, using changes in implied volatility of option contracts prior to earnings announcements. Unlike other proxies of uncertainty, this measure isolates the incremental uncertainty regarding the upcoming earnings announcement and is a forward-looking measure.

Findings

Using this new proxy, this paper finds a significant negative correlation between analyst forecast dispersion and investors’ uncertainty regarding the upcoming earnings announcements. Further tests show that this negative correlation is driven by analysts’ private information acquisition rather than analysts; uncertainty toward upcoming earnings announcements. Additional cross-sectional tests show that this negative relationship is more pronounced in the subsample with lower earnings quality.

Social implications

This paper helps to further the understanding of the information content of analyst forecast dispersion, particularly the ways in which they gather and produce private information and their incentives for so doing.

Originality/value

This paper introduces a new market-based and forward-looking proxy of earnings announcement uncertainty that should be useful in future research. This paper also provides original empirical evidence that analysts gather and produce an additional private information to the market when facing noisy signals and that their information reduces investors’ uncertainty toward upcoming earnings announcements.

Details

Review of Accounting and Finance, vol. 19 no. 3
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1475-7702

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 28 August 2024

Ali Albada

This study aims to examine the potential of Sharia status as ex ante information to signal the quality of an issuing firm by improving the decision-making process of potential…

Abstract

Purpose

This study aims to examine the potential of Sharia status as ex ante information to signal the quality of an issuing firm by improving the decision-making process of potential investors when assessing initial public offerings (IPOs) in an environment where information asymmetry is pronounced. Potential investors face challenges in evaluating and determining the true value of IPO issues, which inherently influences their decision-making. Consequently, this results in pronounced price fluctuations in IPO shares, leading to higher underpricing.

Design/methodology/approach

This study uses a sample of 350 IPOs listed on the Kuala Lumpur Stock Exchange (KLSE) between 2004 and 2021 to examine the signaling role of Sharia-compliance status. A three-model approach is used to ensure that the study's objectives are met. The first model investigates the effect of Sharia status on underpricing to determine whether the main beneficiary of such a signal is the investor or the issuer. The second model examines the effect of Sharia status on investor demand to determine if such a signal influences prospective investors' investment decision-making processes. The third model inspects the effect of Sharia status on investor divergence of beliefs to measure the signal's ability to reduce information asymmetry within the Malaysian IPO market.

Findings

The Malaysian IPO market relies heavily on the fixed-price mechanism, which exacerbates high information asymmetry, affecting potential investors' behavior, asset price formation and return generation on the first day of listing. The study results indicate that Sharia status does not have any signaling role in the Malaysian IPO market. This is because investors in the Malaysian market are driven by ex ante information that helps unveil relevant information that leads to capital gains. Furthermore, most new issues in the Malaysian IPO market fall under Sharia status, diluting the relevance of such information for prospective investors in determining profitable investments.

Practical implications

The findings highlight the challenges faced by issuing firms in estimating market demand due to limited premarket insights and the difficulties prospective investors face in identifying the quality of issuing firms. Efforts to provide more information on investor demand can reduce uncertainty and facilitate more informed decision-making.

Originality/value

This research stands as one of the pioneering efforts to provide an empirical explanation of the potential signaling influence of Sharia status in an emerging IPO market.

Details

International Journal of Islamic and Middle Eastern Finance and Management, vol. ahead-of-print no. ahead-of-print
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1753-8394

Keywords

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