Search results

The purpose of this paper is to investigate the relationship between investors' divergence of opinions and the asset prices of foreign stocks and also examine the effect of home market country-level factors on the influence of divergency of opinions on stock price.

The authors employ panel data estimation with fixed effects to examine the host market response in divergent opinions to the earnings announcements. The paper uses the American Depositary Receipts (ADRs) of 42 countries from 1985 to 2011.

The authors find a negative relationship between differences of opinions and excess quarterly earnings announcement returns, and investors do process information asymmetrically based on good and bad earnings shocks. In addition, the authors find the negative relationship between divergent opinions and excess earnings announcement returns in ADRs is more pronounced in countries with short-sales restrictions, while other home-market country-level factors – the enforcement of insider trading law, legal origin, investor protection and rating on accounting standard – do not influence the relationship between investors' divergency of opinion and stock returns.

This paper is among the first to bring asymmetric effects on convergence in Miller framework and enhance the understanding of price convergence documented in Miller (1977). In addition, this study incorporates home-market country-level factors in explaining the relationship between investors' divergency of opinions and stock returns.

Prior research has documented the role of information uncertainty in the cross-sectional variation in stock returns. Miller (1977) hypothesizes that if information uncertainty is caused by differences of opinion, prices will reflect only the positive beliefs due to short-sale constraints. These anomalous stock price behaviors may result from mispricing. In contrast, Merton (1974) asserts that default risk is a function of the uncertainty in the asset value process. Information uncertainty may be subsumed by credit or default risk. The paper aims to discuss these issues.

The authors employ various sorting techniques and Fama-MacBeth Regressions to test the hypotheses.

The authors provide empirical evidence consistent with Merton’s (1974) default risk hypothesis and inconsistent with Miller’s (1977) mispricing hypothesis.

Risk aversion and not misplacing is the primary factor driving information-related anomalies in equities markets.

It would be quite difficult to find arbitrage opportunities in equities markets because there appears to be little, if any, mis-pricing due to information uncertainties.

This study provides important information about the primary underlying information-related source of certain empirical anomalies in the cross-section of stock returns.

In this chapter we examine the determinants of the long-run stock price performance of Initial Public Offerings (IPOs) on Europe’s new stock markets. We report that the average company that went public on these markets has been a very poor long-term investment. We find that the stock price performance during a three-year window is inversely related to first-day returns. We also find that the long-term underperformance of IPO firms begins after the lock-up agreement has expired and insiders start trading in the firm’s shares. These findings are consistent with the divergence of opinion hypothesis of Miller (1977).

The purpose of this paper is to study the pattern of long-run performance of small and medium enterprises (SMEs) initial public offerings (IPOs) and examine the firm- and issue-related determinants of long-run performance of SME IPOs in India.

The 3 6, 9 and 12 months share returns of Indian SME IPOs is studied using event time methodologies, i.e. buy and hold returns, cumulative abnormal returns and wealth relatives on a sample of 375 SME IPOs issued during February 2012 to May 2018. Additionally, ordinary least square regression has been used to investigate the determinants of long-run performance of SME IPOs on a reduced sample of 104 because of non-availability of price observations.

The findings reveal that Indian SME IPOs exhibit long-run overperformance contradicting the international evidences of underperformance, and this overperformance is significantly evident using buy and hold abnormal return (BHAR). Furthermore, based on the divergence of opinion hypothesis, fads theory and windows of opportunity hypothesis, the results reveal that on one hand, issue size and oversubscription negatively affect BHAR, while on the other hand, auditor reputation, underwriter reputation, hot market, underpricing, inverse of issue price, profits prior to listing positively affect long-run performance. However, firm age, firm size, debt equity ratio, volatility and long-run performance computed through BHAR lacks significant relationship.

The study relied on event time methodology of measuring aftermarket performance of one year because of the limited availability of price offerings. Hence, the study could be extended to analyze aftermarket returns over a period of three to five years to enable reaching the vivid conclusions. Calendar time methodology may also be used to compute abnormal returns.

The results based on the study provides an implication to the investors by providing them an opportunity to bank higher long-run returns by engaging in active and timely trading strategies. Nevertheless, the results also show that investors should be cautioned while taking investment decisions.

The study contributes to rising body of international literature by analyzing the larger and recent sample of IPOs issued from 2012 to 2018 listed on SME exchange.

The purpose of this paper is to investigate how the announcement and implementation of short sales and margin trading regulation affects Chinese stock returns and trading volume. On 31 March 2010, the Chinese regulators launched a pilot programme, allowing short sales and margin trading for 50 Shanghai Stock Exchange and 40 Shenzhen Stock Exchange stocks.

This paper uses an event study approach to compare market model abnormal returns (ARs) of the pilot firms with two distinct matched firm samples. A volume event study is also conducted to examine abnormal trading activity surrounding the key events in the pilot stocks.

Negative ARs follow both the announcement and implementation of short selling and margin trading. This suggests the negative impact of short sales dominates the positive impact of margin trading on an average. Volume also declines, which is consistent with uninformed investors’ seeking to avoid trading against informed traders.

The paper appears to be the first to address the impact of both the announcement and implementation of short selling and margin trading rule changes on returns and liquidity using individual stock data.

The authors examine the effect of split environmental, social and governance (ESG) ratings on information asymmetry, corporate value and trading behavior. The authors test the risk-based hypothesis and the optimism-bias hypothesis on the relationship between diverging opinions and future stock prices. The authors results show that split ESG ratings is positively related to idiosyncratic volatility, an alternative measure for information asymmetry. Further, the negative effect of split ESG ratings on cumulative abnormal return under short-selling constraints is consistent with the optimism bias hypothesis. The authors find a negative relationship between split ESG ratings and the net purchase ratio (NPR) of pension funds. Considering that the NPR is a direct measure of net demand, ESG disagreement may hinder socially responsible investing (SRI) in a firm. This study directly demonstrates the negative effect of ESG disagreement on firm value and investment by Korea's National Pension Service (NPS). The results offer valuable insights into policymakers, as the wide divergence in ESG ratings requires urgent attention to expand SRI.

The purpose of this paper is to identify the effective measures for heterogeneity and to uncover the relationship between investor heterogeneity and stock returns.

The paper employs dispersion in analysts’ earnings forecasts and unexpected trading volume as proxies of heterogeneity. Portfolio strategies and Fama-Macbeth regression are used to uncover the relationship between the two proxies and stock returns in the Chinese A-share market.

The result indicates that stock returns are significantly related to unexpected trading volume, i.e., higher unexpected trading volume implies higher stock returns now but lower future stock returns. In contrast, there is no statistically significant relationship between analysts’ forecast dispersion and stock returns.

The findings suggest that unexplained trading volume is an effective measure for investor heterogeneity in the Chinese A-share market.

Conventional wisdom says that the price reduction stocks experience at expiration of the initial public offering (IPO) lockup period is due to relaxation of selling constraints. Findings from more recent literature question this explanation. The purpose of this paper is to examine a different cause for this price drop, IPO overvaluation.

Using the IPO overvaluation measures of Purnanandam and Swaminathan (2004), the authors examine IPO lockup period stock return differences between stocks in the highest and lowest overvaluation quintiles.

The authors show that the IPO lockup period price reduction is strongly related to overvaluation. Zero-investment portfolios long in the lowest overvaluation quintile and short in the highest overvaluation quintile of IPO firms have positive significant returns.

IPO investors can use the technique to identify firms likely to underperform in the IPO lockup period, potentially avoiding bad investments.

This is the first study to link IPO lockup period stock returns to IPO overvaluation, providing evidence on the impact of both overvaluation and short-selling constraints on stock returns in the IPO lockup period.

The purpose of this paper is to take advantage of a natural experiment in Taiwan to test the effect of short‐sales constraints on price dynamics.

Since September 1998, short‐selling is banned at a price below the close price of the previous trading day. The new rule creates unique daily dynamics of short‐sales constraints. The paper employs a difference‐in‐difference method to evaluate whether the short‐sales constraint rule plays an important role in the price dynamics.

The results show that stock prices react to information in a way similar to if short‐selling was not banned. This is in line with the implication of a rational expectation framework like Diamond and Verrecchia.

The paper has implications on the short selling bans in the 2008/2009 credit crisis and the European debt crisis because the bans are public information as those in this setting. The rational agents in the market could incorporate the bans into price beliefs which could lead to the ineffectiveness of the policy. The short‐sales constraints may be widely imposed in the crisis but they are not the effective tools to alleviate downward price pressures.

The results suggest that the effort of the government to boost stock price by imposing short sales constraints will not be effective if rational investors take the constraints into account while forming their beliefs.

Unlike existing short‐sales constraint proxies like short interest or lending fees, the dynamic constraints do not suffer from endogeneity. Moreover, the constraints are public information and thus ideal for testing the rational expectation models, in which investors have to be aware of the level of the constraints.

This paper investigates the role of economic disagreement in the cross-sectional pricing of individual stocks. Economic disagreement is quantified with ex ante measures of cross-sectional dispersion in economic forecasts from the Survey of Professional Forecasters (SPF), determining the degree of disagreement among professional forecasters over changes in economic fundamentals.

The authors introduce a broad index of economic disagreement based on the innovations in the cross-sectional dispersion of economic forecasts for output, inflation and unemployment so that the index is a shock measure that captures different aspects of disagreement over economic fundamentals and also reflects unexpected news or surprise about the state of the aggregate economy. After building the broad index of economic disagreement, the authors test out-of-sample performance of the index in predicting the cross-sectional variation in future stock returns.

Univariate portfolio analyses indicate that decile portfolios that are long in stocks with the lowest disagreement beta and short in stocks with the highest disagreement beta yield a risk-adjusted annual return of 7.2%. The results remain robust after controlling for well-known pricing effects. The results are consistent with a preference-based explanation that ambiguity-averse investors demand extra compensation to hold stocks with high disagreement risk and the investors are willing to pay high prices for stocks with large hedging benefits. The results also support the mispricing hypothesis that the high disagreement beta provides an indirect way to measure dispersed opinion and overpricing.

Most literature measures disagreement about individual stocks with the standard deviation of earnings forecasts made by financial analysts and examines the cross-sectional relation between this measure and individual stock returns. Unlike prior studies, the authors focus on disagreement about the economy instead of disagreement about earnings growth. The authors' argument is that disagreement about the economy is a major factor that would explain disagreement about stock fundamentals. The authors find that disagreement in economic forecasts does indeed have a significant impact on the cross-sectional pricing of individual stocks.