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The paper aims to present an integrated foresight framework and method to support decision-makers who are confronted with today’s complex and rapidly changing world. The method aims at reducing the degree of uncertainty by addressing the inertia or duration of unfolding trends and by placing individual trends in a broader context.

The paper presents a three-layered framework and method for assessing megatrends based on their inertia or duration. It suggests that if long-term trends and key future uncertainties are studied in conjunction at a meta-level and placed in a broader multi-layered framework of trends, it can result in new insights.

The application of the proposed foresight method helps to systematically place a wide range of unrelated trends and key uncertainties in the context of a broader framework of trends, thereby improving the ability to understand the inertia, direction and mutual interaction of these trends.

The elaboration of identified trends and key uncertainties is partly case-specific and subject to interpretation. It is aimed at illustrating the potential use of the framework.

The paper presents a new approach that may, by itself or in combination with existing foresight methods, offer new means for anticipating future developments.

The use of the proposed framework has potential to provide better insight in the complexity of today’s rapid-changing world and the major transitions taking place. It aims to result in sharper foresight by reducing epistemic uncertainty for decision-makers.

The paper demonstrates how megatrends, Kondratieff waves and century-long trends can be placed in an integrated framework and analysed in conjunction.

This paper identified the ṣukūk structure suitable for deficit financing during the COVID-19 crisis. The study also explored the relevant Sharīʿah contracts that could be utilized to issue ṣukūk that is suitable for various jurisdictions and corporations in handling deficit financing during the COVID-19 crisis.

The authors have adopted a qualitative research approach in which primary and secondary sources available on the subject were reviewed, especially a number of cases related to ṣukūk structures prior to and during the COVID-19 crisis and analyzed their performances and drawn their conclusions.

The outcome of this paper suggests that certain ṣukūk structures used during the COVID-19 crisis aimed primarily at financing deficit have been successful. Furthermore, these ṣukūk structures are relied very much on the obligator’s/issuer’s cash flow position. It has been revealed that if the ṣukūk is structured on equity-based contracts with lower repayment amount or no payment, it would not trigger default because the nature of this ṣukūk is the sharing of profit and loss, in accordance with a Sharīʿah rule that there will be compensation for any loss only if deliberate and notable negligence is proven. However, if it is debt based or ijarah and wakalah contracts, then the payment to ṣukūk holders ought to be made as agreed and if not, it will trigger default. This payment is to be made from the cash flow of the issuer and if there is an issue in the cash flow of the issuer due to COVID-19, consent from the ṣukūk holders needs to be obtained to reschedule payment as found in the case of the Garuda Indonesia ṣukūk. However, as found in MASB’s IMTN ṣukūk case, if the cash flow of the company is good, then the chances of default are very slim. However, so far, three new ṣukūk in the middle of COVID-19 were issued, one by a corporation and two issued by a sovereign, one of which addresses the liquidity issues during the pandemic, and all these proved that ṣukūk is definitely a viable alternative mode for deficit financing and a reliable option during the COVID-19 pandemic.

This paper looked into the ṣukūk structure, especially the ṣukūk which are yet to mature and the new ṣukūk issued during the crisis caused by the COVID-19 pandemic.

It is anticipated that the outcome of this research will assist the stakeholders in ṣukūk markets to understand the ṣukūk impact on COVID-19 related deficit financing and suggest various structures that could be utilized in the ṣukūk market in an unprecedented situation such as the COVID-19 economic distress.

Looking at the social aspect of ṣukūk markets, this paper has endeavored to provide solutions to the financing of deficit for social well-being as a tool to provide relief and social stability in the lives of the people.

The novel COVID-19 pandemic has caused unprecedented economic difficulties and market distress on a global scale; and this research sought to identify the relevant ṣukūk structures to be used for deficit financing during the pandemic crisis, especially the ṣukūk which are yet to mature and new ṣukūk issued during the pandemic crisis. The former includes HDFC Muḍārabah ṣukūk (2019) Maldives and MAHB ṣukūk/IMTN program (2010) Malaysia, while the latter includes IsDB Trust Certificates, Phase 2 of the tranches (2020), the Federal Government of Nigeria Road ṣukūk (May, 2020) and Sharj’ah Government two billion Dirham ṣukūk (June, 2020).

This study reexamines the sustainability of fiscal policy in Sweden.

To test the sustainability of fiscal policy, two approaches are used; the methodology of Kejriwal and Perron (2010), testing for multiple structural changes in a cointegrated regression model and time-varying cointegration test of Bierens and Martins (2010), and Martins (2015).

Using the first approach of testing for multiple structural changes in a cointegrated regression model, the results indicate that government spending and revenue are cointegrated with two breaks. An estimation of a two-break long-run model shows that the slope coefficient increases from 0.678 to 0.892 from the first to the second regime, implying that fiscal deficits were weakly sustainable in the first two regimes, from 1800 to 1943, and from 1944 to 1974. Further, results from time-varying cointegration test indicate that cointegration between spending and revenue in Sweden is time-varying. Fiscal deficits were found to be unsustainable for the periods 1801–1811, 1831–1838, 1853–1860 , 1872–1882, 1897–1902, 1929–1940 and 1976–1982 and weakly sustainable over the rest of the study period.

A number of implications arise from this study: (1) Accounting for breaks in cointegration analysis and in the estimation of the level relationship between spending and revenue is very important because ignoring breaks may lead to an overestimated slope coefficient and hence a bias on the magnitude of fiscal deficit sustainability. (2) In testing for cointegration between spending and revenue, assuming a constant cointegrating slope when it is actually time-varying can also be misleading because deficits can be sustainable for a period of time and unsustainable over another period.

The contribution of this study is three-fold; first, the study uses a long series of annual data spanning over a period of two centuries, from 1800 to 2011. Second, because of the importance of structural change in economics, to examine the existence of a level relationship between spending and revenue, the study uses the methodology of Kejriwal and Perron (2010) to test for multiple structural changes in a cointegrated regression model, as well as time-varying cointegration of Bierens and Martins (2010) and Martins (2015).

This paper aims to assess the fiscal sustainability in Egypt during the period 1990–2018 using deficit accounts (DA) approach. It also tries to investigate the possibility of applying generational accounts (GA) in Egypt as a new approach to assess fiscal sustainability.

This paper tries to assess fiscal sustainability in Egypt during 1990–2018 using DA and GA approaches. DA approach includes primary deficit indicator, tax gap indicator, augmented Dickey-Fuller stationarity test for debt/GDP ratio and Johansen co-integration test between government revenues and expenditures. However, concerning the possibility of applying GA in Egypt, field study form was designed including specific questions to academic and executive economic experts to investigate if it is possible to apply GA in Egypt.

The empirical findings of the field study indicate that Egypt witnessed fiscal sustainability during the period 1990–2018 using DA. On the other hand, there are various obstacles, including administrative, technical, legal and political obstacles which hinder Egypt from applying GA to assess fiscal sustainability.

To the best of the authors' knowledge, this paper assesses fiscal sustainability in Egypt using DA for a longer and updated time series within 1990–2018. In addition, it is the first paper to examine the possibility of assessing fiscal sustainability using GA approach in Egypt.

The organised self-help approach successfully enhances urban low-income earners' (LIE) homeownership in some developing countries. The technique can enhance urban resilience for sustainable LIE homeownership. There is a paucity of studies concerning sustainable homeownership for Nigeria's urban LIE through a self-help approach. The study investigated the housing needs of the urban LIE via organised self-help mechanisms and how the same can enhance urban resilience for sustainable homeownership in the Ancient City of Benin, Nigeria.

Given the unexplored nature of the issue, 20 face-to-face interviews were conducted with experts and analysed through a thematic approach.

Findings identified eleven main barriers faced by the urban LIE. This includes the absence of government housing policy, funding frameworks, urban land scarcity, high property development costs, naira devaluation, high-interest rates, inflation, bribery and corruption, lax mortgage sub-sector, high cost of infrastructure, and government bureaucracy.

This study will contribute to pioneering the role of organised self-help mechanisms in urban resilience for sustainable LIE homeownership in developing cities via a qualitative approach. Also, findings would significantly contribute to developing countries' sustainable housing and urban resilience literature.

Response to suggestion that EU-wide cash payment limits would assist in the control of terrorism finance and money laundering.

Desk review and interviews

The inception impact assessment (IIA) is ill-conceived, not grounded on firm empirical evidence and harmful to both crime control and the legitimate interests and rights of the EU citizens. The action under discussion is presented as a measure against terrorism finance, serious crime and tax evasion. The problem is that these criminal acts correspond to very different methods, volumes, perpetrators, causes and control challenges. Cash payment limitations (CPLs) are nowhere near a panacea that can address all of them and cannot make any of them go away magically. Even when each of these crime challenges are considered on their own, the empirical linkage of CPLs to effective controls is not there. The evidence from EU countries with CPLs in place shows higher levels of informal economy, corruption, tax evasion and terrorism risks than those without. There is substantial evidence of non-cash, very serious and organized crime, while the amounts needed and used by terrorists in Europe are usually very small in cash transactions, way below the thresholds under consideration. In fact, determined offenders will shift to other methods and become more sophisticated, posing new problems to controllers. Displacement and incentives for better-organized crime may well be the main products of such measures.

It counters the argument that the cash payment limits can help reduce serious crime, while pointing to several adverse consequences on legitimate interests and human rights.

The purpose of this paper is to examine the issue of high current account deficit (CAD) from various perspectives focussing its behaviour, financing pattern and sustainability for India.

To begin with the trends, composition and dynamics of CAD for India are analysed. Next, the influence of capital flows on current account is investigated using Granger non-causality test proposed by Toda and Yamamoto (1995) between current account balance (CAB) to GDP ratio and financial account balance to GDP ratio. Also, the sustainability of India’s current account is examined using different econometrics techniques. In particular, Husted’s (1992), Johansen’s cointegration and vector error correction model (VECM) is applied along with conducting unit root and structural break tests wherever applicable. Further, long-run and short-run determinants of the CAB are estimated using Johansen’s VECM.

The study found that the widening of CAD is due to fall in household financial savings and corporate investments. Also, it was found that a large part of India’s CAD has been financed by FDI and portfolio investments which are partly replaced by short-term volatile flows. The unit root and cointegration tests indicate a sustainable current account for India. Further, econometric analysis reveals that India’s current account is driven by fiscal deficit, terms of trade growth, inflation, real deposit rate, trade openness, relative income growth and the age dependency factor.

Since India’s CAD has widened and is expected to widen primarily due to rise in gold and oil imports, policy makers should focus on achieving phenomenal export growth so that a sustainable current account is maintained. Also, with rising working-age and skilled population, India should focus more on high-value product exports rather than low-value manufactured items. Further, on the structural side it is important to correct fiscal deficit as it is one of the important factors contributing to large CAD.

The paper is an important empirical contribution towards explaining India’s CAD over time using latest and comprehensive data and econometric models.

This paper examines global imbalance and rebalancing issues from the viewpoint of Korea. As IMF (2009) notes, the unwinding of global imbalance seems inevitable and, in fact, it is in progress. We illustrate that Korea, with a flexible exchange rate system and relatively balanced current accounts, has little direct linkage to global imbalance. However, we also find that Korea is not immune to the costly adjustment process of imbalance due to the triangular trade between Korea, China and the U.S. The fact that Korea is ‘indirectly’ linked to global imbalance limits Korea’s ability to cope with the situation. Boosting domestic demand, often mentioned recommendation for East Asia, is not an appropriate solution for Korea with low personal savings rate. A lot depends on China’s policy. If China reduces its dependence on U.S. market and increases domestic consumption despite unemployment risk in export manufacturing sector, it will provide Korea with an opportunity for more stable growth based on China’s final demand. Korea can also make efforts to increase economic integration and expand monetary cooperation in Asia that would help to increase consumption demands and final goods trade in the region.

The purpose of this paper is to estimate the impact of the 2008 and 2020 economic crises on employment in Spain.

The authors perform a counterfactual analysis, combining intervention (interrupted time series) analysis and conditional forecasting to estimate a “crisis-free” scenario. These counterfactual estimates are used as a synthetic control, to be compared with the observed values of the main variables of the Spanish Labor Force Survey (EPA).

The authors measure the effect on Spanish employment of the 2008 recession and the ongoing COVID/Ukraine crisis and the speed of recovery, which yields a rigorous dating for the beginning and end of the crises studied. Finally, the authors provide estimates about which part of the employed and unemployed people was in furlough (ERTE) based on microdata provided by the Spanish Institute of Statistics.

To the best of the authors’ knowledge, there are no counterfactual studies covering all the basic variables in EPA and no estimates for the effect of ERTEs on the basic employment variables. Finally, the authors combine well-known intervention and forecasting techniques into an integrated framework to assess the effects of both, past and ongoing crises.

This study aimed to measure the effects of the Russian–Ukrainian war on the value of imports and the food trade balance in Saudi Arabia.

Estimating the suggested model using econometric analysis for the years 1990–2021.

The amount of deficit increased in the food trade balance from 11.58 billion riyals in 1990 to 72.98 billion riyals in 2021. As for the increase in the index of food production by 10%, it leads to a decrease in the value of food imports for Saudi Arabia by 1.88%. Also, the value of the deficit in Saudi Arabia's food trade balance decreases by 5.24% as a result of a 10% rise in food exports to the country.

In light of the increase in the food price index to 145.8, the value of food imports and the deficit in the food trade balance exceed their counterparts in the current situation for the year 2021, at a rate of 37.1% and 44.5% for each respectively. In view of achieving huge financial surpluses as a result of the rise in oil prices, the Saudi Arabia is able to bear the high import bill and the amount of food trade balance deficit. Finally, the Russian–Ukrainian war leads to an increase in the cost of obtaining food commodities and their unavailability in the markets and thus affects the food security environment. Therefore, this study recommends the necessity of conducting more studies on the impact of the war on the food security of the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia.