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Purpose – This chapter reflects on the role of cycling in India, Sub-Saharan Africa and Latin America, discusses and compares explanatory factors of cycling behaviour and provides three methods of spatial analysis that can feed into local transport policy and planning.

Approach – The chapter compares important relevant contextual issues and challenges and presents examples of ongoing research on three continents.

Findings – The findings are in the first instance methodological in nature. Methods have been developed to assess the effect of barriers on access by bicycle, to quantify the avoided carbon emission associated with cycling and to help plan a demand-based cycling network.

Practical implications – Three different spatial analysis methods are presented: the planning of new bicycle infrastructure, the evaluation of existing cycling in terms of avoided carbon emission and the role of the physical environment in levels of cycling accessibility. The methods can be easily replicated and integrated into transport policy and planning at the local level.

Social implications – Effective cycling-inclusive planning in developing countries is expected to lead to higher levels of cycling that positively affect people's welfare, health and the environment.

Value of chapter – The chapter affirms that a thorough understanding of physical, social, economic and cultural factors of the developing city context are important in effective cycling-inclusive planning. It provides three relatively simple and replicable methods that are considered particularly appropriate for data scarce developing cities.

This paper examines the political budget cycles in emerging and developing countries using a sample of 91 countries from 1992 to 2019.

This paper employs a pooled ordinary least squares (OLS) model with clustered standard errors at the country level. To address endogeneity issues, the authors also employ a two-step system generalized methods of moments model.

The authors find clear evidence of political budget cycles in emerging and developing countries. The authors consistently find that incumbents increase total government spending, particularly in economic affairs, public services and social welfare, in the year before an election and the election year. In contrast, they contract spending in the year after an election.

Policymakers should be aware of the political budget cycles during election years. Promoting control of corruption and democracy helps to alleviate the effects of the political budget cycles in emerging and developing countries.

The authors are among the first to explore the political budget cycles in emerging and developing countries by focusing on the total government spending and its main compositions, including expenditures on economic affairs, public services and social welfare. Besides, the authors also explore the conditioning effects of control of corruption, political ideology and democracy.

This paper estimates the sensitivities of the output of the manufacturing industries of the four Southeast countries (Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Singapore) to both the country-specific and global business cycle fluctuations. The study investigates whether the business cycle exposures of these industries differ to their nature classified as producing durable or nondurable goods and also to booms and recessions.

Using annual time series data on sectoral manufacturing production indices for major manufacturing industries over the period from 1999 to 2018, this paper uses the seemingly unrelated regression (SUR)–based generalized least square estimator to estimate the exposures of each industry for each of the four countries to local and world business cycle.

The individual country analysis indicates that generally the sensitivities of the ASEAN manufacturing industries to booms and recessions are different from the pattern observed in the developed countries and Russia. We do not find evidence consistent with the commonly held view among economists and business managers that demand for durable goods flourishes in booms and falls in recessions. Also, very few industries exhibit an asymmetric reaction to booms and busts. However, the analysis of panel data reveals the expected pattern of industrial sensitivities to the local business cycle only.

The paper makes several contributions. Firstly, the model proposed in the paper estimates sensitivities of industries to both the local and global business cycle variations. Secondly, the model enables us to explicitly test the asymmetric reaction of industries to booms and busts. Thirdly, the paper is the first attempt to estimating business cycle exposures for manufacturing industries in emerging markets.

The development economics of large countries is a subject that studies how large developing countries evolve into developed countries through industrialization and structural transformation. By looking into the economic development of large developing countries in a systematic way, the purpose of this paper is to propose a logical system consisting of research objects, main issues, key principles and development strategies.

A large developing country refers to a country with a dual economic structure; it has a large population, vast territory and great market potential, but is low in labour productivity and per capita income.

The key issue of the large country’s economy is the issue of the size, while the key issue of the developing country’s economy is the issue of the economic structure. Therefore, the key issue of the economy of large developing courtiers lies in both the size and economic structure.

The endogenous capacity of a large country depends on the size of factors and the balance of supply and demand, while the comprehensive advantage of a large country depends on its diversified industrial structure and integration of factors. Based on the basic characteristics and key economic principles, large developing countries should seek endogenous, stable, coordinated and innovative development.

Less developed countries (LDCs) have seen considerable business cycles in recent decades. At the same time they have significantly increased their external‐debt‐to‐GDP ratios. It seems natural to suspect that increased indebtedness and the amplified cycles are linked. The paper presents a simple macroeconomic model to formalize this connection. External debt is the novelty of this model. The paper's main contribution is to calibrate the dynamic parameter using the World Development Indicator. It is found that the LDC dynamic behavior is generally non‐oscillatory. Alarmingly though, the dynamic convergent system in the 1970s has been replaced by one of divergence.

In the face of an integrating world economy where significant changes are taking place as a result of rapidly developing science and technology, China’s government must attach more importance to technology transfer to improve its economy. This paper analyses the features of the new environment and discusses the framework of technology transfer based on a review of theory, surveys and studies of Chinese enterprises. In particular, it considers the role of foreign funded enterprises and the importance of creating a positive cycle of technology “transfer‐digestion‐absorption‐dissemination” in China for increasing involvement in international production and trade activities within a global market.

This study investigates (1) whether democratization drives sovereign credit ratings (SCR) changes (the “democratic advantage”) or whether SCR changes affect democratization, (2) whether the degree of democratization in sub-Saharan African (SSA) countries affects the associations and (3) whether the associations are significantly affected by resource dependence.

This study investigates the effects of SCR changes on democracy in 22 SSA countries over the period of 2000–2020 VEC Granger causality/block exogeneity Wald tests, and impulse responses and variance decomposition analyses with Cholesky ordering and Monte Carlo standard errors in a panel VECM framework.

The full sample impulse responses find that a SCR shock has a long-run detrimental effect on the democracy and political rights but only a short-run positive impact on civil liberties. Among the sub-samples, it is found that the extent of natural resource dependence does not affect the magnitude of SCR shocks on democratization mentioned above but it is found that a SCR shock affects long-run democracy in SSA countries that are relatively more democratic but is more likely to drive democratic deepening in less democratic SSA countries. The full sample variance decompositions further finds that the variance of SCR to a political rights shock outweighs the effects of all the macroeconomic factors, whereas in more diversified SSA countries, the variances of SCR are much greater for democracy and political rights shocks, which suggests that democratization and political rights in diversified SSA economies are severely affected by SCR changes. In the case of the high and low democracy sub-samples, it is found that the variance of SCR in the relatively higher democracy sub-sample is greater than in the low democracy sub-sample.

These results have three implications for democratization in SSA. First, the effect of a SCR change is not a democratically agnostic and impacts political rights to a greater extent than civil liberties. Second, SCR changes have the potential to spark a negative cycle in SSA countries whereby a downgrade leads to a deterioration in socio-political stability coupled with increased financial economic constraints that in turn drive further downgrades and macroeconomic hardship. Finally, SCR changes are potentially detrimental for democracy in more democratic SSA countries but democratically supportive in less democratic SSA countries. Thus, SSA countries that are relatively politically sophisticated are more exposed to the effects of SCR changes, whereas less politically sophisticated SSA countries can proactively shape their SCRs by undertaking political reforms.

This study is the first to examine the associations between SCR and democracy in SSA. This is critical literature for the Africa’s scholarly work given that the debate on unfair rating actions and claims of subjective rating methods is ongoing.

The paper aims to examine asymmetry in the cyclical behavior of private consumption in a sample of nine developing countries in the Middle East.

The empirical model includes three policy variables: government spending, the money supply, and the exchange rate. Anticipated movements in these variables are likely to vary with agents' forecasts of macroeconomic fundamentals and, therefore, determine planned consumption. Unanticipated policy changes, in contrast, determine cyclical consumption.

The results indicate that fluctuations in private consumption are mostly cyclical. The stabilizing function of policy shocks varies across countries and appears to be asymmetric within countries.

Asymmetry necessitates a thorough evaluation of the positive and negative effects attributed to changes in policy variables and the necessary reforms to relax binding constraints.

This article offers a review of the literature on regional business cycles (BCs) in emerging economies. The objective is synthesizing the existing studies based on theoretical, empirical and methodological approaches.

The methodological framework includes the following stages: research questions, bibliography location, the selection of articles and the evaluation of the literature, analysis and synthesis, and the reporting and use of results.

The evidence suggests that expansionary phases last longer than recessions'; public expenditure shows a pro-cyclical behavior; and factors such as productive structure and international trade explain the synchronization of regional BCs.

Up until now, there is no research that performs a review of regional BCs in emerging economics.

This study aims to determine whether the transmission of monetary policy to the real economy depends on the structural conditions of financial stability. In particular, the paper shows that the effects of shocks to financial stability on output and inflation is conditional on the state of credit in the economy, measured broadly as a credit-to-GDP.

The authors use a threshold vector autoregression model with Bayesian techniques to investigate the impact of private nonfinancial sector credit on the dynamic relationship between financial conditions, monetary policy transmission mechanism and macroeconomic performance in Kazakhstan from 2005:Q1 to 2020:Q1.

In the modeled threshold vector autoregression (VAR) specification, the authors document that when the credit-to-GDP gap is low or the credit is below its trend, an increase to the interest rate leads to a short-term economic expansion. However, when the credit-to-GDP gap is high or the nonfinancial credit is above its trend, a tightening in monetary policy leads to an economic contraction with domestic financial conditions being weaker compared to a low credit environment.

The outcome is consistent with the related literature, which argues that a more sustained increase in credit is followed by a sharper economic contraction, but only when the economy is in the high credit state. These results highlight that financial stability measures (e.g. credit state) is important to take into account when conducting monetary policy in emerging economies.