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1 – 10 of over 23000
Article
Publication date: 13 April 2012

M. McCord, P.T. Davis, M. Haran, S. McGreal and D. McIlhatton

Tobler's law of geography states that things that are close to one another tend to be more alike than things that are far apart. In this regard, the spatial pattern of price…

1262

Abstract

Purpose

Tobler's law of geography states that things that are close to one another tend to be more alike than things that are far apart. In this regard, the spatial pattern of price distribution is defined by the arrangement of individual entities in space and the geographic relationships among them. The purpose of this paper is to provide emerging findings of research analysing the salient factors which impact on the sale price of residential properties using a spatial regression approach.

Design/methodology/approach

The research develops and formulates a geographically weighted regression (GWR) model to incorporate residential sales transactions within the Belfast Metropolitan Area over the course of 2010. Transaction data were sourced from the University of Ulster House Price Index survey (2010, Q1‐Q4). The GWR approach was then evaluated relative to a standard hedonic model to determine the spatial heterogeneity of residential property price within the Belfast Metropolitan Area.

Findings

This investigation finds that the GWR technique provides increased accuracy in predicting marginal price estimates, in comparison with traditional hedonic modelling, within the Belfast housing market.

Originality/value

This study is one of only a few investigations of spatial house price variation applying the GWR methodology within the confines of a UK housing market. In this respect it enhances applied based knowledge and understanding of geographically weighted regression.

Details

Journal of Financial Management of Property and Construction, vol. 17 no. 1
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1366-4387

Keywords

Open Access
Article
Publication date: 14 May 2019

Yuxin He, Yang Zhao and Kwok Leung Tsui

Exploring the influencing factors on urban rail transit (URT) ridership is vital for travel demand estimation and urban resources planning. Among various existing ridership…

1237

Abstract

Purpose

Exploring the influencing factors on urban rail transit (URT) ridership is vital for travel demand estimation and urban resources planning. Among various existing ridership modeling methods, direct demand model with ordinary least square (OLS) multiple regression as a representative has considerable advantages over the traditional four-step model. Nevertheless, OLS multiple regression neglects spatial instability and spatial heterogeneity from the magnitude of the coefficients across the urban area. This paper aims to focus on modeling and analyzing the factors influencing metro ridership at the station level.

Design/methodology/approach

This paper constructs two novel direct demand models based on geographically weighted regression (GWR) for modeling influencing factors on metro ridership from a local perspective. One is GWR with globally implemented LASSO for feature selection, and the other one is geographically weighted LASSO (GWL) model, which is GWR with locally implemented LASSO for feature selection.

Findings

The results of real-world case study of Shenzhen Metro show that the two local models presented perform better than the traditional global model (OLS) in terms of estimation error of ridership and goodness-of-fit. Additionally, the GWL model results in a better fit than GWR with global LASSO model, indicating that the locally implemented LASSO is more effective for the accurate estimation of Shenzhen metro ridership than global LASSO does. Moreover, the information provided by both two local models regarding the spatial varied elasticities demonstrates the strong spatial interpretability of models and potentials in transport planning.

Originality/value

The main contributions are threefold: the approach is based on spatial models considering spatial autocorrelation of variables, which outperform the traditional global regression model – OLS – in terms of model fitting and spatial explanatory power. GWR with global feature selection using LASSO and GWL is compared through a real-world case study on Shenzhen Metro, that is, the difference between global feature selection and local feature selection is discussed. Network structures as a type of factors are quantified with the measurements in the field of complex network.

Details

Smart and Resilient Transportation, vol. 1 no. 1
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 2632-0487

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 30 March 2020

Joseph Awoamim Yacim and Douw Gert Brand Boshoff

The paper introduced the use of a hybrid system of neural networks support vector machines (NNSVMs) consisting of artificial neural networks (ANNs) and support vector machines…

Abstract

Purpose

The paper introduced the use of a hybrid system of neural networks support vector machines (NNSVMs) consisting of artificial neural networks (ANNs) and support vector machines (SVMs) to price single-family properties.

Design/methodology/approach

The mechanism of the hybrid system is such that its output is given by the SVMs which utilise the results of the ANNs as their input. The results are compared to other property pricing modelling techniques including the standalone ANNs, SVMs, geographically weighted regression (GWR), spatial error model (SEM), spatial lag model (SLM) and the ordinary least squares (OLS). The techniques were applied to a dataset of 3,225 properties sold during the period, January 2012 to May 2014 in Cape Town, South Africa.

Findings

The results demonstrate that the hybrid system performed better than ANNs, SVMs and the OLS. However, in comparison to the spatial models (GWR, SEM and SLM) the hybrid system performed abysmally under with SEM favoured as the best pricing technique.

Originality/value

The findings extend the debate in the body of knowledge that the results of the OLS can significantly be improved through the use of spatial models that correct bias estimates and vary prices across the different property locations. Additionally, utilising the result of the hybrid system is thus affected by the black-box nature of the ANNs and SVMs limiting its use to purposes of checks on estimates predicted by the regression-based models.

Details

Property Management, vol. 38 no. 2
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 0263-7472

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 8 December 2022

B.V. Binoy, M.A. Naseer and P.P. Anil Kumar

Land value varies at a micro level depending on the location’s economic, geographical and political determinants. The purpose of this study is to present a comprehensive…

Abstract

Purpose

Land value varies at a micro level depending on the location’s economic, geographical and political determinants. The purpose of this study is to present a comprehensive assessment of the determinants affecting land value in the Indian city of Thiruvananthapuram in the state of Kerala.

Design/methodology/approach

The global influence of the identified 20 explanatory variables on land value is measured using the traditional hedonic price modeling approach. The localized spatial variations of the influencing parameters are examined using the non-parametric regression method, geographically weighted regression. This study used advertised land value prices collected from Web sources and screened through field surveys.

Findings

Global regression results indicate that access to transportation facilities, commercial establishments, crime sources, wetland classification and disaster history has the strongest influence on land value in the study area. Local regression results demonstrate that the factors influencing land value are not stationary in the study area. Most variables have a different influence in Kazhakootam and the residential areas than in the central business district region.

Originality/value

This study confirms findings from previous studies and provides additional evidence in the spatial dynamics of land value creation. It is to be noted that advanced modeling approaches used in the research have not received much attention in Indian property valuation studies. The outcomes of this study have important implications for the property value fixation of urban Kerala. The regional variation of land value within an urban agglomeration shows the need for a localized method for land value calculation.

Details

International Journal of Housing Markets and Analysis, vol. 17 no. 3
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1753-8270

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 16 November 2018

Michael J. McCord, Sean MacIntyre, Paul Bidanset, Daniel Lo and Peadar Davis

Air quality, noise and proximity to urban infrastructure can arguably have an important impact on the quality of life. Environmental quality (the price of good health) has become…

Abstract

Purpose

Air quality, noise and proximity to urban infrastructure can arguably have an important impact on the quality of life. Environmental quality (the price of good health) has become a central tenet for consumer choice in urban locales when deciding on a residential neighbourhood. Unlike the market for most tangible goods, the market for environmental quality does not yield an observable per unit price effect. As no explicit price exists for a unit of environmental quality, this paper aims to use the housing market to derive its implicit price and test whether these constituent elements of health and well-being are indeed capitalised into property prices and thus implicitly priced in the market place.

Design/methodology/approach

A considerable number of studies have used hedonic pricing models by incorporating spatial effects to assess the impact of air quality, noise and proximity to noise pollutants on property market pricing. This study presents a spatial analysis of air quality and noise pollution and their association with house prices, using 2,501 sale transactions for the period 2013. To assess the impact of the pollutants, three different spatial modelling approaches are used, namely, ordinary least squares using spatial dummies, a geographically weighted regression (GWR) and a spatial lag model (SLM).

Findings

The findings suggest that air quality pollutants have an adverse impact on house prices, which fluctuate across the urban area. The analysis suggests that the noise level does matter, although this varies significantly over the urban setting and varies by source.

Originality/value

Air quality and environmental noise pollution are important concerns for health and well-being. Noise impact seems to depend not only on the noise intensity to which dwellings are exposed but also on the nature of the noise source. This may suggest the presence of other externalities that arouse social aversion. This research presents an original study utilising advanced spatial modelling approaches. The research has value in further understanding the market impact of environmental factors and in providing findings to support local air zone management strategies, noise abatement and management strategies and is of value to the wider urban planning and public health disciplines.

Details

Journal of European Real Estate Research, vol. 11 no. 3
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1753-9269

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 5 February 2018

Marcelo Cajias and Sebastian Ertl

The purpose of this paper is to test the asymptotic properties and prediction accuracy of two innovative methods proposed along the hedonic debate: the geographically weighted…

Abstract

Purpose

The purpose of this paper is to test the asymptotic properties and prediction accuracy of two innovative methods proposed along the hedonic debate: the geographically weighted regression (GWR) and the generalized additive model (GAM).

Design/methodology/approach

The authors assess the asymptotic properties of linear, spatial and non-linear hedonic models based on a very large data set in Germany. The employed functional form is based on the OLS, GWR and the GAM, while the estimation methodology was chosen to be iterative in forecasting, the fitted rents for each quarter based on their 1-quarter-prior functional form. The performance accuracy is measured by traditional indicators such as the error variance and the mean squared (percentage) error.

Findings

The results provide evidence for a clear disadvantage of the GWR model in out-of-sample forecasts. There exists a strong out-of-sample discrepancy between the GWR and the GAM models, whereas the simplicity of the OLS approach is not substantially outperformed by the GAM approach.

Practical implications

For policymakers, a more accurate knowledge on market dynamics via hedonic models leads to a more precise market control and to a better understanding of the local factors affecting current and future rents. For institutional researchers, instead, the findings are essential and might be used as a guide when valuing residential portfolios and forecasting cashflows. Even though this study analyses residential real estate, the results should be of interest to all forms of real estate investments.

Originality/value

Sample size is essential when deriving the asymptotic properties of hedonic models. Whit this study covering more than 570,000 observations, this study constitutes – to the authors’ knowledge – one of the largest data sets used for spatial real estate analysis.

Details

Journal of Property Investment & Finance, vol. 36 no. 1
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1463-578X

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 25 February 2014

M. McCord, P.T. Davis, M. Haran, D. McIlhatton and J. McCord

Accounting for locational effects in determining price is of fundamental importance. The demise of the mainstream property market has culminated in increasing appetite and…

Abstract

Purpose

Accounting for locational effects in determining price is of fundamental importance. The demise of the mainstream property market has culminated in increasing appetite and investment activity within the private rental sector. The primary purpose of this paper aims to analyse the local variation and spatial heterogeneity in residential rental prices in a large urban market in the UK using various geo-statistical approaches.

Design/methodology/approach

Applying achieved price data derived from a leading internet-based rental agency for Belfast Northern Ireland is analysed in a number of spatially based modelling frameworks encompassing more traditional approaches such as hedonic regressive models to more complex spatial filtering methods to estimate rental values as a function of the properties implicit characteristics and spatial measures.

Findings

The principal findings show the efficacy of the geographically weighted regression (GWR) technique as it provides increased accuracy in predicting marginal price estimates relative to other spatial techniques. The results reveal complex spatial non-stationarity across the Belfast metropole emphasizing the premise of location in determining and understanding rental market performance. A key finding emanating from the research is that the high level of segmentation across localised pockets of the Belfast market, as a consequence of socio-political conflict and ethno-religious territoriality segregation, requires further analytical insight and model specification in order to understand the exogenous spatial and societal effects/implications for rental value.

Originality/value

This study is one of only a few investigations of spatial residential rent price variation applying the GWR methodology, spatial filtering and other spatial techniques within the confines of a UK housing market. In the context of residential rent prices, the research highlights that a soft segmentation modelling approaches are essential for understanding rental gradients in a polarised ethnocratic city.

Details

International Journal of Housing Markets and Analysis, vol. 7 no. 1
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1753-8270

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 20 October 2011

Renkuan Guo, Danni Guo and YanHong Cui

The purpose of this paper is to propose an uncertain regression model with an intrinsic error structure facilitated by an uncertain canonical process.

Abstract

Purpose

The purpose of this paper is to propose an uncertain regression model with an intrinsic error structure facilitated by an uncertain canonical process.

Design/methodology/approach

This model is suitable for dealing with expert's knowledge ranging from small to medium size data of impreciseness. In order to have a rigorous mathematical treatment on the new regression model, this paper establishes a series of new uncertainty concepts sequentially, such as uncertainty joint multivariate distribution, the uncertainty distribution of uncertainty product variables and uncertain covariance and correlation based on the axiomatic uncertainty theoretical foundation. Two examples are given for illustrating a small data regression analysis.

Findings

The uncertain regression model is formulated and the estimation of the model coefficients is developed.

Practical implications

The paper is devoted to a regression model to handle a small amount of data with mathematical rigor.

Originality/value

The theory and the methodology of the uncertain canonical process regression is proposed for the first time. It addresses the practical challenges of small data size modelling.

Article
Publication date: 10 October 2023

Visar Hoxha

The purpose of the study is to examine the efficiency of linear, nonlinear and artificial neural networks (ANNs), in predicting property prices.

Abstract

Purpose

The purpose of the study is to examine the efficiency of linear, nonlinear and artificial neural networks (ANNs), in predicting property prices.

Design/methodology/approach

The present study uses a dataset of 1,468 real estate transactions from 2020 to 2022, obtained from the Department of Property Taxes of Republic of Kosovo. Beginning with a fundamental linear regression model, the study tackles the question of overlooked nonlinearity, employing a similar strategy like Peterson and Flanagan (2009) and McCluskey et al. (2012), whereby ANN's predictions are incorporated as an additional regressor within the ordinary least squares (OLS) model.

Findings

The research findings underscore the superior fit of semi-log and double-log models over the OLS model, while the ANN model shows moderate performance, contrary to the conventional conviction of ANN's superior predictive power. This is notably divergent from the prevailing belief about ANN's superior predictive power, shedding light on the potential overestimation of ANN's efficacy.

Practical implications

The study accentuates the importance of embracing diverse models in property price prediction, debunking the notion of the ubiquitous applicability of ANN models. The research outcomes carry substantial ramifications for both scholars and professionals engaged in property valuation.

Originality/value

Distinctively, this research pioneers the comparative analysis of diverse models, including ANN, in the setting of a developing country's capital, hence providing a fresh perspective to their effectiveness in property price prediction.

Article
Publication date: 11 September 2017

Francesco Caracciolo and Marilena Furno

Several approaches have been proposed to evaluate treatment effect, relying on matching methods propensity score, quantile regression, influence function, bootstrap and various…

Abstract

Purpose

Several approaches have been proposed to evaluate treatment effect, relying on matching methods propensity score, quantile regression, influence function, bootstrap and various combinations of the above. This paper considers two of these approaches to define the quantile double robust (DR) estimator: the inverse propensity score weights, to compare potential output of treated and untreated groups; the Machado and Mata quantile decomposition approach to compute the unconditional quantiles within each group – treated and control. Two Monte Carlo studies and an empirical application for the Italian job labor market conclude the analysis. The paper aims to discuss these issue.

Design/methodology/approach

The DR estimator is extended to analyze the tails of the distribution comparing treated and untreated groups, thus defining the quantile based DR estimator. It allows us to measure the treatment effect along the entire outcome distribution. Such a detailed analysis uncovers the presence of heterogeneous impacts of the treatment along the outcome distribution. The computation of the treatment effect at the quantiles, points out variations in the impact of treatment along the outcome distributions. Indeed it is often the case that the impact in the tails sizably differs from the average treatment effect.

Findings

Two Monte Carlo studies show that away from average, the quantile DR estimator can be profitably implemented. In the real data example, the nationwide results are compared with the analysis at a regional level. While at the median and at the upper quartile the nationwide impact is similar to the regional impacts, at the first quartile – the lower incomes – the nationwide effect is close to the North-Center impact but undervalues the impact in the South.

Originality/value

The computation of the treatment effect at various quantiles allows to point out discrepancies between treatment and control along the entire outcome distributions. The discrepancy in the tails may differ from the divergence between the average values. Treatment can be more effective at the lower/higher quantiles. The simulations show the performance at the quartiles of quantile DR estimator. In a wage equation comparing long and short term contracts, this estimator shows the presence of an heterogeneous impact of short term contracts. Their impact changes depending on the income level, the outcome quantiles, and on the geographical region.

Details

Journal of Economic Studies, vol. 44 no. 4
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 0144-3585

Keywords

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