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The aim of this study was to determine if there are asymmetries in the pass-through of West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil prices to its derivatives (diesel and gasoline) in the Brazilian market.

Initially, the future WTI oil price series was analyzed using the self-exciting threshold autoregressive (SETAR) and logistic smooth transition autoregressive (LSTAR) non-linear models. Subsequently, the threshold autoregressive error-correction model (TAR-ECM) and Markov-switching model were used.

The findings indicated high prices throughout 2008 due to the subprime crisis. The findings indicated high prices throughout 2008 due to the subprime crisis. The results indicated that there is long-term pass-through of oil prices in both methods, suggesting an equilibrium adjustment in the prices of diesel and gasoline in the analyzed period. Regarding the short term, the variations in contemporary crude oil prices have positive effects on the variations in fuel prices. Lastly, this behavior can partly be explained by the internal price management structure adopted during almost all of the analyzed period.

This paper contributes to the literature at some points. The first contribution is the modeling of the oil price series through non-linear models, further enriching the literature on the recent behavior of this time series. The second is the simultaneous use of the TAR-ECM and Markov-switching model to capture possible short- and long-term asymmetries in the pass-through of prices, as few studies have applied these methods to the future price of oil. The third and main contribution is the investigation of whether there are asymmetries in the transfer of oil prices to the price of derivatives in Brazil. So far, no work has investigated this issue, which is very relevant to the country.

While numerous empirical studies have tried to model and forecast the oil price volatility over the years, such attempts using the crude oil volatility index (OVX) rarely exist. In order to conceal this void, the purpose of this paper is to investigate whether including OVX in the realized volatility (RV) models improve the accuracy of predictions.

At the empirical stage, the authors employ several measures to frame the RV of crude oil futures returns. In particular, the authors use three different range-based RV estimators recommended by Parkinson (1980), Rogers and Satchell (1991) and Alizadeh et al. (2002), respectively.

The findings reveal that the information content of crude OVX helps to provide more accurate volatility predictions in comparison to the base-line RV model which contains only historical oil volatilities. Besides, the forecast encompassing test further suggests that the modified RV model (when OVX is introduced in the base-line RV model) forecast encompasses the conventional RV forecast in majority of the cases.

Since forecasting oil price volatility plays a vital role in portfolio optimization, derivatives pricing, optimum asset allocation decisions and risk management, the findings of this study thus carry important implications for energy economists, investors and policymakers.

This paper adds to the existing literature, since it is one of the initial studies to explore whether OVX is informative about the realized variance of the US oil market returns. The findings recommend that the information content of oil implied volatilities should be taken into account when modeling the US oil market volatility. In addition, range-based measures should be utilized while estimating the RV.

The purpose of this paper is to investigate the global influence of crude and refined oil futures prices on Dow Jones Islamic equity indices (DJIMI) during the recent global financial crisis under structural breaks in the conditional volatility of oil futures prices.

It aims at exploring the long-run and the short-run elasticity and causal relationships using an ARDL bound testing approach and a vector error correction model.

The main findings confirm the presence of long-run relationship for DJIM emerging markets index compared to other global and sub-regional developed indexes. Speed of adjustment to the long-run equilibrium is moderate and the effect of structural breaks, produced from nonlinear volatility model with long memory (LM), is overall not pronounced for that relationship. Short-run causality is bi-directional but long-run Granger causality does not run from refined oil to the DJIMI and crude oil.

The paper demonstrates the implicit extent of international financial integration of Islamic stock markets in light of the global influence of oil prices.

The findings offer some highlights to researchers, portfolio managers and policymakers.

The paper gives an answer to an identified need to test the position of Islamic equity markets as booming Islamic investment and socially responsible investment areas to the global influence of the new soaring path of oil markets. It uses as well bounds testing approach and tests weak and strong causalities under structural breaks. It considers as well LM behavior in oil prices along with the asymmetry property in oil prices.

The purpose of this paper is to investigate and test for changes in investor risk aversion and the stochastic discount factor (SDF) using options data on the West Texas Intermediate crude oil futures contract during the 2007-2011 period.

Risk aversion functions and SDFs are estimated using parametric approaches before and after four specific dates of interest. The dates are: the summer 2008 end of the bull market regime; the late 2008 credit freeze trough; the BP Deepwater Horizon explosion; and the Libyan uprising.

Absolute risk aversion functions and SDFs are significantly flatter (less decreasing in wealth) after the end of the bull market and the credit freeze trough. After these two market reversals, oil market participants were less risk-averse for low levels of wealth but more risk-averse for high wealth levels. Oil market investors also increased their valuation of anticipated future wealth in average states of nature relative to very high or very low-asset return states after reversals. The BP explosion and the Libyan uprising led to steeper risk aversion functions (decreasing more rapidly in wealth) and SDF. Oil market investors were more risk-averse for lower future wealth, but less risk-averse for higher future wealth. Oil market investors increased their valuation of anticipated future wealth in extreme states of nature relative to average states of nature after both dates.

Documenting statistically and economically significant changes in oil market investors’ attitude toward risk and inter-temporal appetite for risk in relation to changes in financial and political conditions.

This article aims to verify if there are detectable barriers in price levels that are understood to be psychologically important (psychological barriers) in a set of hourly electricity prices. These barriers manifest themselves when the market struggles with a difficulty in crossing the barrier to a different level. Psychological barriers focus on directional price movements around regions of the barrier, thus the importance of understanding investor behavior. The authors intend to contribute empirically to the scarce literature on psychological influences in individuals trading in the energy market, hereby enhancing the knowledge concerning the behavior of investors in this market.

The present work aims to test psychological barriers in the Nord Pool electricity market. Through a sample of hourly data on the Elspot day-ahead market, from 2013 to 2017, three groups of tests were made, following the M-values methodology: (1) uniformity tests, which clearly rejected the uniformity in hourly prices; (2) barrier tests, which included the barrier proximity and barrier hump tests, evidencing psychological barriers and (3) conditional effects tests, which allowed us to conclude in favor of effects of positive returns after approaching a barrier on an upward movement, i.e. the barrier breaches due to the fact that increasing prices tend to lead to further price increases, on average.

Uniformity tests, rejected the uniformity in hourly prices; barrier tests, included the barrier proximity and barrier hump tests, evidencing psychological barriers and conditional effects tests, allowed us to conclude in favor of effects of positive returns after approaching a barrier on an upward movement, i.e. the barrier breaches due to the fact that increasing prices tend to lead to further price increases, on average. Another relevant conclusion is that the period from midnight to 9 a.m. is very sensitive, since there is evidence of return and variance effects simultaneously. The implications of these results are potentially relevant, since changes on the variance are usually perceived as a proxy for risk, with changes on the return. It was also concluded that with the increase of the time span from 5 to 10 days on the conditional effects difference tests, there were significant changes on the results, the variance effect is stronger, while the return effect weakens.

However, this research presents some limitations that result in representing opportunities for future research. The fact that there are reduced data available for other markets end up limiting the study of the global electricity market. Although Nord Pool is Europe's leading energy market and is seen as one of the most successful energy markets in the world, it would be interesting to do a study with more than one electricity market to make comparative considerations. Although the spot market is the main arena for energy trade, while the intraday market works as a compliment, it would be equally interesting to do a similar study for the intraday market and then compare conclusions. Moreover, in the present study, it was used standard methods in the literature on psychological barriers, but other methods could have been used–for example, those that assume that prices follow the Benford's distribution (Lu and Giles, 2010), which also present a path for future research and opportunity for confirming the robustness of the present results.

When the presence of psychological barriers is detected it means that the risk-return relationship becomes weaker around the psychological barrier (round numbers, meaning that electricity traders anchor). Identification of psychological barriers supports the claim that technical analysis strategies based on price support and resistance can be profitable. Therefore, more profitable strategies can be built by traders, but no reconciliation with the efficient market hypothesis (EMH) (provided that in inefficient markets prices should not exhibit any particular pattern). The finding of significant psychological barriers in specific hourly time intervals implies the need to address its practical implications in electricity markets, being so specific, namely, the possibility to earn extraordinarily profits exploiting this anomaly and who wins.

The electricity sector is a determinant sector in economic growth and a factor of development. Herein lies the importance of studying this market, which until now has not occurred in this subject, as far as it was possible to gauge. Are there barriers in the electricity market and should such a presence be taken into account? Investigating the existence of psychological barriers in the electric market becomes relevant, because knowing that investors are psychologically affected by a psychological barrier, can become a useful tool in negotiation, as it can function as another variable in the “equation” which is to trade in a complex market like this. Proving the potential presence of a psychological barrier may lead investors to believe in the idea of levels of resistance or levels of support, affecting their decision-making and price dynamics.

Guar Gum (GG) is used in Shale oil exploration. Excessive price increase in the Guar futures market had a spillover impact on Guar spot prices and affected Guar export from India as Shale oil producers started exploring alternate sources. In this paper, the role of excessive speculation in the futures market, and its adverse impact on the guar-based agri-business ecosystem have been empirically explored.

Volatility spillover dynamics between WTI crude oil and Guar futures have been explored using bivariate-Granger Causality, BEKK–GARCH models with Wavelet multi-resolution analysis. The wavelet-based models capture the multi-scale features of mean and volatility spillover to identify the effect of heterogenous investment behavior in the time and frequency domain.

The results provide evidence that excessive speculation in futures markets increases spot market volatility. The results also suggest that the excess presence of short-term investors can destabilize the futures market.

The purpose of the commodity futures market is to support price discovery and risk management. However, speculative practices can destabilize these purposes leading to the failure of the business ecosystem.

The novelty of this paper is twofold. First, it explores the economic linkages between the spot and futures market and tests whether the presence of heterogeneous traders affects the economic linkages. Second, it models the impact of short-term speculative investment on the destabilization of the spot market.

In early 2012, an equity analyst, was examining the jet fuel hedging strategy of JetBlue Airways for the coming year. Because airlines cross-hedged their jet fuel price risk using derivatives contracts on other oil products such as WTI and Brent crude oil, they were exposed to basis risk. In 2011, dislocations in the oil market led to a Brent-WTI premium wherein jet fuel started to move with Brent instead of WTI, as it traditionally did. Faced with hedging losses, several U.S. airlines started to change their hedging strategies, moving away from WTI. But others worried that the Brent-WTI premium might be a temporary phenomenon. For 2012, would JetBlue continue using WTI for its hedges, or would it switch to an alternative such as Brent?

The purpose of this paper is to examine the relationship between trading volume and returns in the West Texas Intermediate (WTI) and Brent crude oil futures markets. In so doing, the paper addresses two important issues. First, whether there is a positive relationship between returns and trading volume in the crude oil futures markets. Second, whether information regarding trading volume contributes to forecasting the magnitude of return in the markets, an important issue because the ability of trading volume to predict returns imply market inefficiency.

The paper used daily closing futures price and their corresponding trading volumes for WTI and Brent crude oil markets during the sample period January 2008 to May 2011. Both the log volume and the unexpected component of the detrended volume are used in the analysis in other to have robust alternative conclusion. The generalized method of moments (GMM) approach is used to examine the contemporaneous relationship between returns and trading volume while the Granger causality approach, impulse response and variance decomposition analysis are used to investigate the ability of trading volume to predict returns in the oil futures markets.

The results reject the postulation of a positive relationship between trading volume and returns, suggesting that trading volume and returns are not driven by the same information flow which contradicts the mixture of distribution hypothesis in all markets. The results also show that neither trading volume nor returns have the power to predict the other and therefore contradicting the sequential arrival hypothesis and noise trader model in all markets. Finally, the findings support the weak form efficient market hypothesis in the crude oil futures markets.

The findings has important implications to market regulators because daily price movement and trading volume do not respond to the same information flow and therefore the measures that control price volatility should not focused more on volume; otherwise they may not provide fruitful outcomes. Additionally, traders and investors who participate in oil futures should not base their decisions on past trading volume because it will lead to profit loss. The results also have implications for market efficiency as past information cannot assist speculators to forecast returns in all the oil markets. Finally, investors can benefit from portfolio diversification across the two markets.

This chapter develops a no-arbitrage, futures equilibrium cost-of-carry model to demonstrate that the existence of cointegration between spot and futures prices in the New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX) crude oil market depends crucially on the time-series properties of the underlying model. In marked contrast to previous studies, the futures equilibrium model utilizes information contained in both the quality delivery option and convenience yield as a timing delivery option in the NYMEX contract. Econometric tests of the speculative efficiency hypothesis (also termed the “unbiasedness hypothesis”) are developed and common tests of this hypothesis examined. The empirical results overwhelming support the hypotheses that the NYMEX future price is an unbiased predictor of future spot prices and that no-arbitrage opportunities are available. The results also demonstrate why common tests of the speculative efficiency hypothesis and simple arbitrage models often reject one or both of these hypotheses.

The purpose of this study is to reveal the lead–lag structure between international crude oil price and stock markets.

The methods used for this study are as follows: empirical mode decomposition; shift-window-based Pearson coefficient and thermal causal path method.

The fluctuation characteristic of Chinese stock market before 2010 is very similar to international crude oil prices. After 2010, their fluctuation patterns are significantly different from each other. The two stock markets significantly led international crude oil prices, revealing varying lead–lag orders among stock markets. During 2000 and 2004, the stock markets significantly led international crude oil prices but they are less distinct from the lead–lag orders. After 2004, the effects changed so that the leading effect of Shanghai composite index remains no longer significant, and after 2012, S&P index just significantly lagged behind the international crude oil prices.

China and the US stock markets develop different pattens to handle the crude oil prices fluctuation after finance crisis in 1998.