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Article
Publication date: 19 June 2019

Reiko Takahashi, Ryoji Nakamura and Yuichi Washida

The purpose of this paper is to create socio-technological future scenarios of Japan in the year 2050 and beyond, with a particular focus on energy and its relation to…

Abstract

Purpose

The purpose of this paper is to create socio-technological future scenarios of Japan in the year 2050 and beyond, with a particular focus on energy and its relation to science and technology (S&T).

Design/methodology/approach

A workshop based on the scanning-based foresight method (SBFM) was conducted. Social change scenarios were created by participants browsed scanning materials about futuristic topics. Then, energy and society scenarios were produced by combining social change scenarios and future issues describing S&T related to energy in Japan in the future.

Findings

The participants who have different scientific and technological experties produced various images of Japan’s energy society around the year 2050. Based on these depictions, future visions of scenarios about energy and society were different in terms of consistency between S&T and future needs from current visions which focus on the transient of social awareness. The sociocentric view and confidence in self-made technology were found in the workshop and the participants believed some social problems would be solved with rich experiences and expertises in S&T even if human resources were limited. It was also found that each scenario portrayed an optimistic view of the relatively near future, in which innovative energy-related technologies are developed to optimize both personal satisfaction and social efficiency. On the other hand, we found rather pessimistic survival scenarios about the far future as concerns climate change and natural disasters.

Originality/value

Experts from several fields used their insight to apprehend an energy future and depicted, from scientific and technological perspectives, a vision of a different future society from the one that would emerge in a traditional linear scenario in which a proper balance is struck between the usage of S&T and its limitations. SBFM was also found to be beneficial for insight into energy S&T with its many uncertainties.

Open Access
Article
Publication date: 5 May 2020

Abdelkader Derbali, Shan Wu and Lamia Jamel

This paper aims to provide an important perspective to the predictive capacity of Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) meeting dates and production…

Abstract

Purpose

This paper aims to provide an important perspective to the predictive capacity of Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) meeting dates and production announcements for energy futures (crude oil West Texas Intermediate (WTI), gasoline reformulated gasoline blendstock for oxygen blending (RBOB), Brent oil, London gas oil, natural gas and heating oil) market returns and volatilities.

Design/methodology/approach

To examine the impact of OPEC news on energy futures market returns and volatilities, the authors use a conditional quantile regression methodology during the period from April 01, 2013 to June 30, 2017.

Findings

From the empirical findings, the authors show a conditional dependence between energy futures returns and OPEC-based predictors; hence, the authors can find clear the significance of relationship in the process of financialization of the OPEC announcements and energy futures in the case of this paper. From the quantile-causality test, the authors find that the effect of OPEC news is important to energy futures. Specifically, OPEC announcements dates predict the quantiles of the conditional distribution of energy futures market returns.

Originality/value

The authors confirm the presence of unidirectional nexus between OPEC news and energy commodities futures in the long term.

Details

Journal of Economics, Finance and Administrative Science, vol. 25 no. 50
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 2077-1886

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 26 June 2020

Sercan Demiralay, Nikolaos Hourvouliades and Athanasios Fassas

This paper aims to examine dynamic equicorrelations (DECO) and directional volatility spillover effects among four energy futures markets, namely, West Texas Intermediate…

Abstract

Purpose

This paper aims to examine dynamic equicorrelations (DECO) and directional volatility spillover effects among four energy futures markets, namely, West Texas Intermediate crude oil, heating oil, natural gas and reformulated blendstock for oxygenate blending gasoline, by using a multivariate fractionally integrated asymmetric power ARCH–DECO–generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity (GARCH) model and the spillover index technique.

Design/methodology/approach

The empirical analysis uses the dynamic equicorrelation model of Engle and Kelly (2012) to examine time-varying correlations at equilibrium. The authors further analyze dynamic volatility transmission among energy futures by using Diebold and Yilmaz (2012) dynamic spillover index based on generalized value-at-risk framework.

Findings

The empirical results provide evidence of heightened equicorrelations at times of financial turmoil. More specifically, the dynamic spillover analysis shows that volatility is transmitted predominantly from crude oil to the other markets and risk transfer among four markets exhibits asymmetries. Spillovers are found to be highly responsive to dramatic events such as the 9/11 terror attack, 2008–2009 global financial crisis and 2014–2016 oil glut.

Practical implications

The results of this study have important practical implications for investors, portfolio managers and energy policymakers as the presence of time-varying co-movements and spillovers suggests the need for dynamic trading strategies. There are also implications regarding risk management practices, as there is evidence of increased volatility transmission at times of financial turmoil and uncertainty. Finally, the results provide insights to policymakers in a better understanding of the spillover dynamics.

Originality/value

This paper investigates the DECOs and spillover effects among crude oil, natural gas, heating oil and gasoline futures markets. To the best of the knowledge, this is one of a few studies that examine co-movements and risk transfer in energy futures in a comprehensive framework.

Details

Studies in Economics and Finance, vol. 37 no. 4
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1086-7376

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 22 June 2012

Maria‐Christina Georgiadou and Theophilus Hacking

The purpose of this paper is to investigate “best practice” building strategies and sustainability‐oriented techniques and tools used to assess the energy performance of…

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Abstract

Purpose

The purpose of this paper is to investigate “best practice” building strategies and sustainability‐oriented techniques and tools used to assess the energy performance of housing developments. The objective is to propose guidelines that can integrate futures thinking into the selection of energy‐related design responses, such as materials, building components and energy systems, from the early project stages.

Design/methodology/approach

An interdisciplinary approach is adopted with the inclusion of social, economic and environmental aspects of the energy supply and demand. A multiple case study approach is employed, which focuses on the residential sector of European mixed‐use developments that represent sustainable communities of “best practice”.

Findings

The investigation of “best practice” housing developments reveals that the majority of design responses cover mainstream environmental design strategies. Energy efficiency measures are still the “low hanging fruit” towards meeting the sustainability objectives. In addition, established sustainability‐oriented techniques and tools used focus mostly on projections of almost certain facts rather than explorations of a portfolio of plausible futures.

Originality/value

The paper represents a shift away from the short‐term mindset that still dominates design and construction practices. It provides an overview of building strategies and decision‐support techniques and tools for improving and incentivising sustainable energy solutions over the long term.

Abstract

Details

Energy Economics
Type: Book
ISBN: 978-1-83867-294-2

Article
Publication date: 5 May 2022

Ehsan Marzban, Armin Firoozpour and Mostafa Marzban

Energy systems are quickly in transition and their complexity has been dramatically increased. Although there are numerous studies and researches about future of energy in…

Abstract

Purpose

Energy systems are quickly in transition and their complexity has been dramatically increased. Although there are numerous studies and researches about future of energy in terms of technology or fuels, few studies have been done based on comprehensive socio-technical dimensions of energy systems’ futures. One key question to fill this gap is that how can we consider electricity as a sustainable common good/resource, beyond some conventional considerations related to public or private sector orientation? The purpose of this study is to find an acceptable answer for this question..

Design/methodology/approach

To achieve the purpose of this study, after reviewing some relevant studies, key effective factors on the future of energy have been recognized in an expert panel and structurally analyzed by Micmac software based on cross-impact analyze method. Thereafter, four scenarios for transforming the electricity distribution from a monopoly good to a common resource have been developed and described based on scenario workshops method..

Findings

Four scenarios for transforming the electricity distribution from a monopoly good to a common resource have been developed and described. These scenarios include “spider grid,” “local grid,” “intermediate grid” and “off-grid.” Furthermore, different dimensions of electricity as a common good/resource have been investigated. As a result, the authors find out that common resource is a creatable concept that can be referred to some goods depending on certain conditions.

Originality/value

Electricity, like any other resource with common characteristics, can be considered and treated as a common resource, depending on the way we generate, share and distribute it, ownership and property rights, management and decision-making mechanisms, social participation processes and governance criteria.

Details

International Journal of Energy Sector Management, vol. ahead-of-print no. ahead-of-print
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1750-6220

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 12 April 2022

Kiarash Fartash and Amir Ghorbani

Scenario planning is a useful approach that helps policymakers to better understand the complexity and uncertainties that lie in the future and to choose the right policy…

Abstract

Purpose

Scenario planning is a useful approach that helps policymakers to better understand the complexity and uncertainties that lie in the future and to choose the right policy mix to support the development of renewable and affordable energy sources. In this regard, this paper aims to present renewable energy (RE) development scenarios in Iran in the horizon of 2030.

Design/methodology/approach

Following the intuitive logic school and the Global Business Network model, the authors identified seven driving forces, according to the expert’s judgment, by brainstorming techniques which influence REs development in the horizon of 2030. By prioritizing driving forces based on their importance and uncertainty, “sustainable and green economy” and “emerging technology development” are the most instrumental uncertainties and the authors formed a two-axis scenario matrix with each representing an axis.

Findings

The results suggest four main scenarios of “Transition to Sustainability with Green Gold,” “Towards Sustainability with Green Gold,” “Productivity with Black Gold” and “Desperation with Black Gold.” They include a wide range of possible situations of energy basket in the future ranging from dominance of fossil fuels to dominance of REs. The “Productivity with Black Gold” and the “Towards Sustainability with Green Gold” are the most probable scenarios of RE development by 2030 in Iran.

Originality/value

This paper indicates that the dominance of oil and gas resources would impede or at least slow down the development of renewable and affordable energy sources. Although the economic and environmental potentials and the inevitability of REs are well-understood, path dependence created by fossil fuels in Iran’s energy regime, either partially or fully, hinders the widespread development of REs which is the case in other resource-based countries as well.

Details

foresight, vol. ahead-of-print no. ahead-of-print
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1463-6689

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 31 August 2012

Low Sheau Ting, Abdul Hakim Bin Mohammed and Weng Wai Choong

This study seeks to propose the implementation strategies for energy sustainability on a Malaysian university campus.

5031

Abstract

Purpose

This study seeks to propose the implementation strategies for energy sustainability on a Malaysian university campus.

Design/methodology/approach

The paper describes five proposed implementation strategies for Malaysian Universities to contribute to a sustainable energy future and to realise a sustainable university, namely: gaining top management commitment, raising energy awareness, providing energy education, developing energy conservation behaviour and developing a sustainable campus implementation blueprint.

Findings

Over the years, numerous global energy issues have been identified, which include fluctuation of world energy prices, uncertainty of future energy supplies and environmental degradation. All these problems are threatening global movement towards a sustainable energy future. Immediate action should be taken by everyone in order to secure a sustainable energy future for the next generation. Malaysian universities, which are composed of hundreds of building blocks equipped with massive facilities, present enormous opportunities to contribute to a sustainable energy future, through reduction of their overall energy consumption.

Research limitations/implications

The proposed implementation strategies are set in the Malaysian context. These strategies detail the crucial aspect towards an energy efficient campus especially in Malaysian universities. It is recommended in future studies to benchmark other countries in this research.

Originality/value –

The study provides an overview of the important strategies for energy sustainability on a Malaysian university campus.

Details

Business Strategy Series, vol. 13 no. 5
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1751-5637

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 7 March 2008

Bill Ralston

Corporations need a structure for thinking through the development of a new energy/environment strategy and the business implications of different strategy alternatives

2031

Abstract

Purpose

Corporations need a structure for thinking through the development of a new energy/environment strategy and the business implications of different strategy alternatives. This paper aims to investigate how to develop a customized corporate energy strategy.

Design/methodology/approach

This four‐step process focuses on the major energy/environment issues requiring corporate decisions; it generates two alternate scenarios of the future that span the possibilities and identifies basic policy choices for corporations and also the tradeoffs to be made.

Findings

The paper finds that this process to develop a new energy strategy addresses the prospects that the way an organization manages its energy and environmental threats and opportunities over the next 15 years could invigorate or cripple it. The four major drivers of uncertainty for the future: the dynamics of energy supply and demand, global warming effects, society's environmental‐mitigation and remediation priorities, and world economic development outcomes.

Research limitations/implications

Bill Ralston is the co‐author of the best‐practice guide The Scenario Planning Handbook (with Ian Wilson).

Practical implications

The four‐step process outlined here provides corporate executives the practical means to interpret the global forces buffeting them, to identify new pathways for creating value in the future and to get started.

Originality/value

This process to develop a new energy strategy evaluates the prospects that the way an organization manages its energy and environmental threats and opportunities over the next 15 years could invigorate or cripple it.

Details

Strategy & Leadership, vol. 36 no. 2
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1087-8572

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 21 November 2008

Jussi Heinimö, Ville Ojanen and Tuomo Kässi

The purpose of this paper is to clarify the alternative future scenarios for the international biomass market until the year 2020 and identify underlying steps needed…

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Abstract

Purpose

The purpose of this paper is to clarify the alternative future scenarios for the international biomass market until the year 2020 and identify underlying steps needed toward a vital working and sustainable biomass market for energy purposes.

Design/methodology/approach

Two scenario processes were conducted for the study. A heuristic, semi‐structured approach, including the use of preliminary questionnaires as well as manual and computerised group support systems (GSS), was applied in the scenario processes.

Findings

The scenarios estimated that the biomass market will develop and grow rapidly as well as diversify in the future. The scenario analysis shows the key issues in the field: global economic growth including the growing need for energy, environmental forces in the global evolution, the potential of technological development in solving the global problems, capabilities of the international community to find solutions for the global issues, and the complex interdependencies of all these driving forces.

Research limitations/implications

Further research is needed involving analysis of the probabilities of the technological and commercial elements in each scenario. It is also important to conceptualise the scale and directions of biomass trade streams and determine the influences of the scenarios from the viewpoints of different actors.

Practical implications

The results of the scenario processes provide a starting point for further research analysing the technological and commercial aspects of the scenarios and foreseeing the scales and directions of biomass streams.

Originality/value

In this study, scenario processes supplemented by a GSS are applied for investigating the future development of the biomass market.

Details

International Journal of Energy Sector Management, vol. 2 no. 4
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1750-6220

Keywords

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