Search results

Previous studies have shown that stock returns bear a premium for downside risk versus upside potential. We develop a new risk measure which scales the traditional CAPM beta by the ratio of the upside beta to the downside beta, thereby incorporating the effects of both upside potential and downside risk. This “modified” beta has substantial explanatory power in standard asset pricing tests, outperforming existing measures, and it is robust to various alternative modeling and estimation techniques.

Using Japan REITs stock data, this paper examines the risk‐return relations conditional on up and down markets periods. The results show that beta is significantly and positively (negatively) related to realized returns in up (down) markets before and after controlling for extra risk factors. The same conditional results are found for unsystematic risk and total risk, providing evidence that investors do not hold well‐diversified portfolios. Though skewness is significantly priced, the coefficients are unexpectedly positive (negative) in up (down) markets, indicating that investors dislike positively skewed portfolios and would ask for compensation if they are required to hold them during up markets. One possible reason is that the investors have a poor concept of skewness and/or they are too aggressive during bullish markets and so they ignore the benefit of positive skewness. Subsidiary results highlight that there is no seasonal effect in the conditional relation between beta/unsystematic risk/total risk/skewness and returns. This study is the first comprehensive study of the risk‐return relations in Japan REITs market, which provides out‐of‐sample evidence relative to earlier tests on Asian and international stock markets. The findings give important insights and provide useful guidance on investing in Japan REITs market.

The purpose of this paper is to investigate the connection between the accrual quality and the growth/value characteristics (and their return premia) at firm level.

The paper employs a battery of univariate and multivariate cross‐sectional tests. Fama‐MacBeth regressions with main effects and interaction effects are used to identify the relation between accrual quality, book‐to‐market and returns. The analysis is conducted on the overall sample, as well as after conditioning on up and down markets.

Value (growth) stocks are more likely to be associated with high (low) accrual quality. Value stocks earn higher returns mainly in down markets, while poor accrual quality firms have significantly higher returns during up markets, but significantly lower returns during down markets. There is a significant interaction effect between accrual quality and the value premium, which only exhibits in the down markets (i.e. stocks with poor accrual quality earn a higher value premium in down markets than stocks with good accrual quality).

Results in this paper help disentangle between various explanations proposed for the accrual quality premium and the value premium. These findings are consistent with the idea that the same underlying risk factor generating the value premium also generates the cross‐sectional variation in accrual quality responsible for the accrual quality premium. From the corporate managers' perspective, the results imply that value firms can mitigate their higher costs of capital by providing high quality of accounting information. From an analyst's perspective, the study suggests that considering both accrual quality and growth characteristics can help make better portfolio allocation decisions than when these are considered separately.

This paper examines asymmetric multifractality (A-MF) in the leading Middle East and North Africa (MENA) stock markets under different turbulent periods (global financial crisis [GFC] and European sovereign debt crisis [ESDC], oil price crash and COVID-19 pandemic).

This study applies the asymmetric multifractal detrended fluctuation analysis (A-MF-DFA) method of Cao et al. (2013) to identify A-MF and MENA stock market efficiency during the COVID-19 pandemic.

The results show strong evidence of different patterns of MF during upward and downward trends. Inefficiency is higher during upward trends than during downward trends in most of the stock markets in the whole sample period, and the opposite is true during financial crises. The Turkish stock market is the least inefficient during upward and downward trends. A-MF intensifies with an increase in scales. The evolution of excessive A-MF for MENA stock returns is heterogeneous. Most of the stock markets are more inefficient during a pandemic crisis than during an oil crash and other financial crises. However, the inefficiency of the Saudi Arabia and Qatar stock markets is highly sensitive to oil price crashes. Overall, the level of inefficiency varies across market trends, scales and stock markets and over time. The findings of this study provide investors and policymakers with valuable insights into efficient investment strategies, risk management and financial stability.

This paper first explores A-MF in the MENA emerging stock markets. The A-MF analysis provides useful information to investors regarding asset allocation, portfolio risk management and investment strategies during bullish and bearish market states. In addition, this paper examines A-MF under different turbulent periods, such as the GFC, the ESDC, the 2014–2016 oil crash and the COVID-19 pandemic.

The purpose of this paper is to investigate whether market conditions have an effect on investors’ propensity to herd in an emerging economy’s stock market. Additionally, given the lack of research on Islamic behavioral finance, the authors further investigate if the herding phenomenon is distinct in Islamic versus conventional stocks.

The authors used daily data for the period of 1995–2016 according to the herding behavior model of Chang et al. (2000), which relies on cross-sectional absolute deviation of returns.

Findings reveal the herding behavior of investors among Shariah-compliant during up and down market exits with non-linear relationship to the market return, while for conventional stocks herding behavior does not exist with linear nor nonlinear relationships during the up and down market. Furthermore, for the whole market, herding behavior only exists during upmarket with a nonlinear relationship to the market return. However, this relationship is not significant. Moreover, the results of this study are robust with respect to the effect of the Asian and global financial crisis.

The findings are useful for investors to identify which market conditions are associated with rational and irrational behavior of investors.

Most of the theoretical and empirical studies on herding behavior have focused on developed countries. Only a few studies have paid attention to the herding behavior in Islamic financial markets, particularly in the context of an emerging market such as Malaysia. This study fills this void.

This study is the first to examine the role of idiosyncratic risk in the pricing of European real estate equities. The capital asset pricing model predicts that in equilibrium, investors should hold the market portfolio. As a result, investors should only be rewarded for carrying undiversifiable systematic risk and not for diversifiable idiosyncratic risk. The study is adding to the growing body of countering studies by first examining time trends of idiosyncratic risk and subsequently the pricing of idiosyncratic risk in European real estate equities. The paper aims to discuss these issues.

The study analyses 293 real estate equities from 16 European capital markets over the 1991-2011 period. The framework of Fama and MacBeth is employed. Regressions of the cross-section of expected equity excess returns on idiosyncratic risk and other firm characteristics such as beta, size, book-to-market equity (BE/ME), momentum, liquidity and co-skewness are performed. Due to recent evidence on the conditional pricing of European real estate equities, the pricing is also investigated using the conditional framework of Pettengill et al. Either realised or expected idiosyncratic volatility forecasted using a set of exponential generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity models are employed.

The initial analysis of time trends in idiosyncratic risk reveals that while the early 1990s are characterised by both high total and idiosyncratic volatility, a strong downward trend emerged in 1992 which was only interrupted by the burst of the dotcom bubble and the 9/11 attacks along with the global financial and economic crisis. The largest part of total volatility is idiosyncratic and therefore firm-specific in nature. Simple cross-correlations indicate that high beta, small size, high BE/ME, low momentum, low liquidity and high co-skewness equities have higher idiosyncratic risk. While size and BE/ME are priced unconditionally from 1991 to 2011, both measures of idiosyncratic risk fail to achieve significance at reasonable levels. However, once conditioned on the general equity market or real estate equity market, a strong positive relationship between idiosyncratic risk and expected returns emerges in up-markets, while the opposite relationship exists in down-markets. The relationship is robust to firm-specific factors and a series of robustness checks.

The results show that ignoring the conditional relationship between idiosyncratic risk and returns might result in the false realisation that idiosyncratic risk does not matter in the pricing of risky (real estate) assets.

This study is the first to examine the role of idiosyncratic risk in the pricing of European real estate equities. The study reveals differences in the pricing of European real estate equities and US REITs. The study highlights that ignoring the conditional relationship between idiosyncratic risk and returns might result in the false realisation that idiosyncratic risk does not matter in the pricing of risky assets.

This paper aims to examine the presence of herd behaviour in the Islamic Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) stock markets following the methodology given by Chiang and Zheng (2010). Generalized auto regressive conditional heteroskedasticity (GARCH)-type models and quantile regression analysis are used and applied to daily data ranging from 3 January 2010 to 28 July 2016. Results show evidence of herd behaviour in the GCC stock markets. When the data are divided into down and up market periods, herd information is found to be statistically significant and negative during upward market periods only. These results are similar to those reported in some emerging markets such as China, Japan and Hong Kong, where stock returns perform more similarly during down market periods and differently during rising markets.

The authors present a brief literature on herd behaviour. Second, the authors provide some specificity of the GCC Islamic stock market, followed by the presentation of the methodology and the data, results and their interpretation.

The authors take into account the difference existing in market conditions and find evidence of herding behaviour during rising markets only for GCC markets. This result was confirmed after using the quantile regression method, as evidence of herding was observed only in highly extreme periods. Stock returns perform more similarly when market is down in Islamic GCC stock market.

The research limitation consists in the fact that this work can be extended to compare the GCC stock markets with other markets in Asia such as Malaysia and Indonesia.

The principal implication consists in the fact that herding behaviour is limited in the GCC markets and Islamic finance can have an important contribution to moderate the behaviour in the financial markets.

The work focusses on the role of ethics in the financial markets and their ability to reduce the impact of behavioural biases.

The paper studies the behaviour of investors in the Islamic financial markets and gives an idea about the importance of the behaviour in this particular market regarding its characteristics.

The purpose of this paper is to explore how the difference between the sale price and list price of houses varies across the market cycle.

The paper utilises quarterly transaction‐based information on house prices from the Belfast Metropolitan Area. The information is structured on a time series basis from 2002 to 2008. The analysis is concerned with the mean differences between list price and sale price, the standard deviation of the differences, the skewness and kurtosis of the distributions.

The results show that under normal market conditions the mean deviation between list price and sale price is small circa 1 per cent. However, the departure between list price and sale price becomes substantial on both the up‐ and down‐cycles of the market. The analysis shows that the highest mean positive deviation of 12.1 per cent occurred in the first quarter of 2007 and two quarters before sale prices peaked, suggesting that buyer bidding behaviour was changing prior to the market peak. The extent of market change is highlighted by the mean negative deviation of 8.6 per cent for the fourth quarter of 2008. The results demonstrate that volatility increases over the cycle and distributions of price differences are lower and flatter.

This paper breaks new ground through the analysis of differences between list and sale price in a period of high volatility in the housing market. The analysis shows how list price lags sale price on the up‐cycle but leads on the down‐cycle.

This study examines herding in Islamic bank equity markets under various market conditions (up/down, high/low trading and high/low volatility) and during events such as Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) meeting days, Ramadan, the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) crisis of 2017 and the COVID-19 pandemic. The authors also look at the impact of rising and falling oil prices on herding behaviour.

This study uses the model of Chang et al. (2000) to estimate herding behaviour in the Islamic bank markets.

First, the authors estimate herding at the GCC region level, and the results reveal an absence of herding under all market conditions and during all the events considered, except for the GCC crisis of 2017. Second, the authors investigate herding in four Gulf countries (Saudi Arabia, United Arab Emirates [UAE], Qatar and Kuwait) separately and find that herding is evident in all these countries during various market conditions. During Ramadan, herding appears in the Saudi Arabia and Kuwait Islamic bank equity markets. Herding is not prevalent during OPEC meeting days in any of the markets, whereas herding is evident in Saudi Arabia, UAE and Kuwait Islamic bank equity markets during the GCC crisis of 2017 and the COVID-19 pandemic. Lastly, the rising and falling oil prices do not influence herding at either GCC region or country level.

From the practitioner's perspective, this study provides useful insights for investors in Islamic banks and policymakers, in terms of asset pricing, portfolio diversification, trading strategies and market stability.

Many studies explore herding in the equity markets of Muslim majority countries, but not specifically in the Islamic bank market. This study fills this literature gap by comprehensively examining herding in Islamic bank equity markets under various market conditions (up/down, high/low trading and high/low volatility) and during events, such as OPEC meeting days, Ramadan, the GCC crisis of 2017 and the COVID-19 pandemic.

This study aims to investigate the market timing strategy in different market conditions (i.e. up, down, normal and in-financial-crisis situation) in the emerging market of Pakistan over the period 1995 to 2015. Furthermore, this study tests the validity of the capital asset pricing model (CAPM) and Fama and French model.

This study considers monthly stock returns of 167 firms and constructs six different portfolios on the basis of different size and book to market ratio. The Treynor and Mazuy model is used to capture the market timing strategy.

The results indicate evidence of the market timing in normal market conditions. However, there is less supportive evidence of market timing in up-market, down-market and in-financial-crisis situations. This study also confirms the validity of the capital asset pricing model and Fama and French three-factor model with strong support of value premium and size premium in the stock market.

The findings of this study are helpful to companies in estimating the cost of issuing equity more accurately. The investors can use market timing to make their investment in a more better and profitable manner.

Unlike other previous studies, this study considers an extended period to test the validity of the capital asset pricing model and Fama and French model. In addition, this study is novel in testing the marketing timing of the firms in the context of emerging economy of Pakistan.