Search results

The study aims to determine the socio-cultural variables that affect Turkey's tourism demand. The study proposes how important socio-cultural determinants as well as economic determinants affect tourism demand.

The study examined a sample of 19 countries sending the most visitors to Turkey between 1996 and 2017 by using panel unit root, panel cointegration tests and cointegration estimator methods. The data set consists of variables such as GDP per capita (lnGDPP), total population number (lnPOP), urbanization level, information and communication technology (lnICT), human development index (lnHDI), education level and death rates (lnDTH).

The findings from the analysis provide evidence that the variables in the models show the expected effects on tourism demand. The findings show that apart from economic variables, socio-cultural variables also have an important effect on tourism demand.

The socio-cultural models used in the study were created using variables that can be quantified. The study results are valid for the countries included in the analysis.

The findings of this study will contribute to policymakers in determining the market for Turkish tourism. The results show that the policies to be prepared by considering the socio-cultural characteristics of countries can increase the tourism demand.

The study is significant in that it focuses on socio-cultural variables rather than economic variables commonly used in the literature. The study is original in terms of both the study sample and the model and considers cross-sectional dependency (CD) and homogeneity.

This study aims to estimate the determinants of international tourist flows between destinations by using the panel gravity model.

The multi-dimensional panel gravity model was used to analyse tourism originating from 30 different countries to the 14 most-visited countries in the world between 2008 and 2016. Income (i.e. per capita gross domestic product for both the origin and destination countries), distance between countries, various economic indicators and six dummy variables were added to the gravity model as control variables.

The results indicated that tourist arrivals depended mainly on economic factors, i.e. income and trade variables were significant determinants of tourist arrivals. The results also suggested that estimated international tourist flows are a negative function of distance, as is postulated in economic theory.

In recent years, gravity models have been used frequently to analyse international tourism demand and have demonstrated their ability to evaluate the effects of various determinants of international tourism for many countries. The literature includes studies that used a two-dimensional panel gravity model to analyse the determinants of tourism demand to a single country from many different countries. This study differs in terms of specificity; in that, it relied on a three-dimensional panel gravity model that allowed for modelling of multiple destination countries. As a result, more comprehensive and general results relative to the determinants of tourism demand were obtained. In addition, the application of a non-nested three-dimensional panel data model, which has limited use, contributes a new perspective to the econometric literature.

本研究旨在通过采用面板引力模型来估计目的地之间国际旅游流量的决定因素。

多维面板引力模型用于分析2008年至2016年间来自30个不同国家的游客赴世界上前14位旅游目的地国家的旅游情况。收入（即客源国和目的地国家的人均国内生产总值）, 国家之间的距离, 各种经济指标和六个虚拟变量作为控制变量加入到引力模型中。

结果表明, 游客到访主要取决于经济因素, 即收入和贸易变量是游客到访的重要决定因素。结果还表明, 估计的国际旅游流量是距离的负函数。

近年来, 引力模型经常被用来分析国际旅游需求, 并证明了它们能够评估许多国家的各种国际旅游决定因素的影响。文献包括使用二维面板引力模型来分析来自许多不同国家的单个国家的旅游需求的决定因素的研究。该研究的不同之处在于, 它依赖于非嵌套集合模型三维面板引力模型, 允许对多个目的地国家进行建模。因此, 此研究获得了与旅游需求决定因素相关的更全面和广泛的结果。此外, 使用不常运用的非嵌套三维面板数据模型的应用为计量经济学文献提供了新的视角。

国际旅游需求, 重力模型, 多维面板数据模型

Este estudio tiene como objetivo estimar los determinantes de los flujos turísticos internacionales entre destinos mediante el uso del modelo de panel de gravedad.

El modelo de gravedad de panel multidimensional se utilizó para analizar el turismo que se originó en 30 países diferentes a los 14 países más visitados del mundo entre 2008 y 2016.

Los resultados indicaron que las llegadas de turistas dependían principalmente de factores económicos, es decir, las variables de ingresos y comercio fueron determinantes significativos de las llegadas de turistas. Los resultados también sugirieron que los flujos turísticos internacionales estimados son una función negativa de la distancia.

En los últimos años, los modelos de gravedad se han utilizado con frecuencia para analizar la demanda turística internacional y han demostrado su capacidad para evaluar los efectos de varios determinantes del turismo internacional para muchos países. La literatura incluye estudios que utilizaron un modelo de gravedad de panel bidimensional para analizar los determinantes de la demanda turística a un solo país desde muchos países diferentes. Este estudio difiere en términos de especificidad en que se basó en un modelo tridimensional de panel de gravedad que permitió el modelado de múltiples países de destino.

Demanda turística internacional, Modelo de gravedad, Modelo de datos de panel multidimensional

The purpose of this paper is to identify the core factors that determine tourism demand in four inbound markets of Hong Kong.

The general-to-specific approach was adopted as a step-by-step approach to identify the major determinants of tourism demand in Hong Kong.

The study revealed word of mouth and income of source market are core determinants of tourism demand in all four inbound markets.

Knowledge of core determinants of tourism demand is useful to destination management organizations and tourism business owners for strategic planning and decision making to increase total revenues.

Tourism and natural hazards share a long pathway, owing to the fragile existential status of certain tourist destinations and voluntary and involuntary intervention of mankind in the business of natural environment. Over a course of history, numberless natural hazards prevailed and left behind some of the colossal and collateral damage on the physicality and virtuality of destinations. Volume of studies contended this direct and inverse association. Resultantly, impact measurement, ongoing imagery issues and future forecasting have been made to ease out the tourist destination from the consequences of natural hazards. Moreover, considering the inner fabric of tourism system (demand and supply side), natural hazards have been foreseen as unwanted yet necessary event to be emphasized and taken care of. Predominantly, in the existing global milieu of maximum human intervention in the climatic cycle and its outcomes in the form of global warming, climate concerns, natural hazards have been considered as inevitable and destined. Hence, it needs a comprehensive literature-based study to assess the risk factor of natural hazards on the tourist destinations. This study, in acquiescence to address this grey section, intends to explore the existing studies (drafted on the risks impacts of natural hazards on demand, supply and ancillary segments of tourism) and structure the findings thematically and orchestrate these findings in the existing body of literature. Implications from the findings have been presented.

This study examines whether international tourism demand in the Visegrád countries is influenced by countries' risk rating on environmental, social and governance (ESG) factors, as non-economic factors relating to ESG risks have been ignored by previous researches on determinants of international tourism demand.

The study investigates panel data for the Visegrád countries comprising the Czech Republic, Hungary, Poland and Slovakia over the period 1995–2019. Recently developed techniques of augmented mean group (AMG) and common correlated effects mean group (CCEMG) estimators are employed so as to take care of cross-sectional dependence, nonstationary residuals and possible heterogeneous slope coefficients.

The regression estimates suggest that besides economic factors, the perception of international tourists regarding ESG risk is another important determinant of international tourism demand in the Visegrád countries. The study also established that income levels in the tourists' originating countries are the most critical determinant of international tourism demand to the Visegrád countries.

The research outcomes of the study include the need for the Visegrád countries to direct policies towards further mitigating their ESG risks in order to improve future international tourism demand in the area. They also need to ensure exchange rate stability to prevent volatility and sudden spikes in the relative price of tourism in their countries.

This paper aims to investigate the determinants of international bilateral tourism demand in countries of Southern Common Market (specifically, Argentina, Brazil and Uruguay) and Chile.

In this study, an augmented gravity model is used to investigate the determinants of international bilateral tourism demand in countries of Southern Common Market. The novel aspect of the analysis is that three models of tourism are defined, depending on the spatial distribution of tourist arrivals and departures. An intra-regional model, an extra-regional model and a general model are estimated using a dynamic panel data model.

The results indicate that traditional gravity variables are significant in explaining bilateral inbound arrivals, but the characteristics and the behavior of the demand of tourism vary on whether the country belongs to the sub-regional bloc.

The differences found in this paper might have some impacts on the desired design and direction of the touristic policies of each country.

This study analyzes the determinants of international tourism demand through different bilateral relationships, differentiating between intra- and extra-block tourisms.

This study aims to determine the mutual association between the volatility of macroeconomic indicators (MIs) and India’s tourism demand.

Bivariate generalized autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity (GARCH) models are applied to estimate the volatility spillover effect (VSE) from one market to another. Compared to the other methods, bivariate GARCH has wide acceptance for estimating the VSE. The monthly MIs and tourism demand data (2012–2021) are gathered for empirical analysis.

The evidence of the growth-led tourism (GLT) demand is seen. In the short term, tourism-led growth (TLG) is indicated. However, this TLG does not sustain itself in the long run. There is significant evidence in favour of the VSE from the MIs to the tourism demand ensuring GLT in India.

The main implication of the current study is to ignore the short-term influence of tourism demand on the economy because it does not sustain itself in the long run. However, the long-term influence of macroeconomic indicators on tourism demand should be seen with caution. Hedging, if possible, may be considered to protect the tourism sector’s interests from adverse economic fallouts.

There is a lack of studies on the volatility (especially on the VSE) between MIs and tourism demand. Hence, this study fills the research gap and presents a novel and unique contribution to the extent of the knowledge body on the topic and significantly contributes.

双变量GARCH模型用于估计从一个市场到另一个市场的波动溢出效应(VSE)。与其他方法相比, 双变量GARCH在估计波动溢出效应时得到了广泛的接受。收集2012-2021年的月度管理信息系统和旅游需求数据进行实证分析。

该研究旨在确定宏观经济指标(MIs)的波动与印度旅游需求之间的相互关系。

GLT(增长主导的旅游需求)的证据显而易见。从短期来看, 旅游导向型增长(TLG)可行。然而, 这种旅游导向型增长并不能长期维持下去。有重要的证据支持印度管理信息系统到旅游导向型增长的旅游需求波动溢出效应。

当前研究的主要启示是忽略了旅游需求对经济的短期影响, 因为从长远来看, 它无法自我维持。然而, 宏观经济指标对旅游需求的长期影响应谨慎看待。如有可能, 可考虑对冲, 以保护旅游业的利益不受不利的经济影响。

目前对管理信息需求与旅游需求之间的波动（尤其是波动溢出效应）的研究较少。因此, 本研究填补了这个研究空白, 并对该主题知识体系的内容呈现新颖而独特的促进作用, 有显著的贡献作用。

Los modelos GARCH bivariantes se aplican para estimar el efecto indirecto de la volatilidad (VSE) de un mercado a otro. En comparación con otros métodos, el GARCH bivariante goza de gran aceptación para estimar el VSE. Para el análisis empírico se recopilan los MI mensuales y los datos de demanda turística (2012–2021).

El estudio se centra en medir la relación mutua entre la volatilidad de los indicadores macroeconómicos (MI) y la demanda turística de la India.

Se observan indicios de GLT (demanda turística impulsada por el crecimiento). A corto plazo, se evidencia el TLG (crecimiento impulsado por el turismo). Sin embargo, este TLG no se mantiene a largo plazo. Existen pruebas significativas a favor del VSE de los MI a la demanda turística que garantizan el GLT en India.

La principal implicación del presente estudio es desestimar la influencia a corto plazo de la demanda turística en la economía porque no se sostiene a largo plazo. Sin embargo, la influencia a largo plazo de los indicadores macroeconómicos en la demanda turística debe considerarse con cautela. Por ello, la cobertura de riesgos puede plantearse para proteger los intereses del sector turístico de las repercusiones económicas adversas.

Existe una carencia de estudios sobre la volatilidad (especialmente en el VSE) entre los MI y la demanda turística. En consecuencia, este estudio realiza una aportación investigadora mediante una contribución novedosa y única en la ampliación del conocimiento sobre el tema de análisis.

This study investigates if the causal relationships between the exchange rates and selected inbound markets’ tourism demand are temporary or permanent, and compares market reactions in Türkiye.

Tourism demand is examined with a regional approach, focusing on the geographical markets, namely Europe, Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS) members and Asian countries, as the top inbound tourism markets, in addition to the total number of inbound tourists to Türkiye. Granger, frequency-domain causality, asymmetric Toda–Yamamoto, and asymmetric frequency-domain causality tests were employed to investigate and compare markets on exchange rate–tourism demand relationship for 2008M01-2020M02.

The results indicate that exchange rates affect European tourism demand both in the short and long run. The meaning of this Frequency Domain Causality (FDC) analysis finding shows that the exchange rate has both permanent and temporary effects on European tourists. The relationships are statistically insignificant for CIS members and Asian countries. The exchange rates also permanently affect total inbound tourism demand, but the independent variable has no short-run (temporary) effects on total demand. Asymmetric causality tests confirmed a permanent causality relationship from the positive and negative components of exchange rates to the positive and negative components of European and total tourism demand.

The Granger causality test provides information on the presence of a causal relation, while the FDC test, an extended version of Granger causality, enlightens the short- (temporary) and long-run (permanent) relationships and allows for analyzing the duration of the impact. In addition, asymmetric causality relationships are also investigated in the study. Besides, this study is the first in the literature to examine the relationship between tourism demand and the exchange rate regionally (continentally) for Türkiye.

The purpose of this paper is to examine the impact of various cultural amenities on tourism demand in 168 European cities.

Using data from the European Commission’s Culture and Creative Cities Monitor 2017, a series of regressions are estimated to examine the impact of various cultural amenities on tourism demand while also controlling for other factors that may impact on tourism demand. Diagnostic tests are also conducted to check the robustness of the results.

The results reveal that cultural amenities in the form of sights, landmarks, museums, concerts and shows have a positive impact on tourism demand. By pinpointing the cultural amenities that are important for increasing tourism demand, the findings aid stakeholders in the tourism industry as they develop post-pandemic recovery plans.

This paper identifies two key aspects of the cultural tourism literature that require deeper investigation and aims to address these aspects. Firstly, while many studies focus on a specific or narrow range of cultural amenities, this study includes a series of measures to capture a range of cultural amenities. Secondly, while many studies are narrow in geographical scope, this paper includes data on 168 European cities across 30 countries.

The purpose of this paper is to empirically examine the impact of institutional quality on the international tourism demand of India. To carry out the analysis, the study first analyses the impact of composite institutional quality index and then proceeds to examine the impact of each of the individual components of institutional quality on the international tourism demand of India. The impact of income of the tourist originating countries, tourism price, trade openness and Human Development Index (HDI) on tourism demand has also been examined.

The study employed panel autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) model, with data from top 30 tourist originating countries for India for the period of 1995–2016.

The results indicated that an increase in the income of the tourist originating countries has spillover effects on the development of tourism sector of India. The impact of cost of travel proxied by relative prices between the destination and origin country is found to be negative, however, statistically insignificant. The impact of trade openness and development level of the host country (proxied by HDI) is found to have positive association with the tourism demand. Institutional quality is found to have positive association with international tourism demand of India. Among the individual components of institutional quality, rule of law, regulatory quality, control of corruption and voice and accountability are found to promote the tourism sector development in the economy. Contrarily, the impact of government effectiveness is found to be negative. In the short run, most of the variables were found to support their counterpart results in long run.

This study has practical implication not only in formulating tourism sector policies of the host countries but also for issuing tourist advisories in tourist originating countries. The study holds that policymakers should work for improving institutional environment of the country such as bureaucracy, legislature, regulatory quality, rule of law and for reducing corruption at all levels so as to ensure a sustained rise in tourist inflows to India.

This study validates the link between institutional quality of a country and international demand for its tourism. To the best of the authors' knowledge, the study is the first attempt that has comprehensively analysed the impact of institutional quality on tourism demand in Indian context which has been generally ignored in the tourism literature.