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Article
Publication date: 7 November 2023

Mohammed Bouaddi, Omar Farooq and Catalina Hurwitz

The aim of this paper is to document the effect of analyst coverage on the ex ante probability of stock price crash and the ex ante probability stock price jump.

Abstract

Purpose

The aim of this paper is to document the effect of analyst coverage on the ex ante probability of stock price crash and the ex ante probability stock price jump.

Design/methodology/approach

This paper uses the data of non-financial firms from France to test the arguments presented in this paper during the period between 1997 and 2019. The paper also uses flexible quadrants copulas to compute the ex ante probabilities of crashes and jumps.

Findings

The results show that the extent of analyst coverage is positively associated with the ex ante probability of crash and negatively associated with the ex ante probability of jump. The results remain qualitatively the same after several sensitivity checks. The results also show that the relationship between the extent of analyst coverage and the probability of cash and the probability of jump holds when ex post probability of stock price crash and stock price jump is used.

Originality/value

Unlike most of the earlier papers on this topic, this paper uses the ex ante probability of crash and jump. This proxy is better suited than the ones used in the prior literature because it is a forward-looking measure.

Details

Review of Behavioral Finance, vol. 16 no. 3
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1940-5979

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 7 June 2023

Ali İhsan Akgün and Serap Pelin Türkoğlu

This study aims to reveal to what extent successful European listed firms depend on their intellectual capital investment in achieving business success during the global financial…

Abstract

Purpose

This study aims to reveal to what extent successful European listed firms depend on their intellectual capital investment in achieving business success during the global financial crisis.

Design/methodology/approach

This study used value added intellectual coefficient (VAIC) methodology to measure the effect of intellectual capital on financial performance of business, which consist of 683 the sample listed firms. To examine the nexus between intellectual capital, legal origin and firm performance, estimated panel test and ordinary least squares regression model is used to data obtained from a sample of European countries.

Findings

The finding of this study suggests that there exists a positive relationship between intellectual capital and firm performance with return on assets (ROA) before the financial crisis, while firm performance with return on equity did not contribute to intellectual capital before and after the crisis period. Additionally, common law countries have a positive and statistically significant impact on firm performance with ROA for the before-crisis period, while code law countries have positively significant effect with VAIC on ROA.

Practical implications

The VAIC method has played a critical role in the management decision-making process to integrate the intellectual capital in the financial crisis period.

Originality/value

This study examines intellectual capital components such as human capital, structural capital and process capital efficiencies and firm performance in the legal origin context. The empirical evidence shows that there are significant impacts of legal origin on the nexus between intellectual capital and performance of listed firms during the global financial crisis.

Details

International Journal of Organizational Analysis, vol. 32 no. 4
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1934-8835

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 16 November 2023

Fatma Hachicha

The aim of this paper is threefold: (1) to develop a new measure of investor sentiment rational (ISR) of developing countries by applying principal component analysis (PCA), (2…

Abstract

Purpose

The aim of this paper is threefold: (1) to develop a new measure of investor sentiment rational (ISR) of developing countries by applying principal component analysis (PCA), (2) to investigate co-movements between the ten developing stock markets, the sentiment investor's, exchange rates and geopolitical risk (GPR) during Russian invasion of Ukraine in 2022, (3) to explore the key factors that might affect exchange market and capital market before and mainly during Russia–Ukraine war period.

Design/methodology/approach

The wavelet approach and the multivariate wavelet coherence (MWC) are applied to detect the co-movements on daily data from August 2019 to December 2022. Value-at-risk (VaR) and conditional value-at-risk (CVaR) are used to assess the systemic risks of exchange rate market and stock market return in the developing market.

Findings

Results of this study reveal (1) strong interdependence between GPR, investor sentiment rational (ISR), stock market index and exchange rate in short- and long-terms in most countries, as inferred from (WTC) analysis. (2) There is evidence of strong short-term co-movements between ISR and exchange rates, with ISR leading. (3) Multivariate coherency shows strong contributions of ISR and GPR index to stock market index and exchange rate returns. The findings signal the attractiveness of the Vietnamese dong, Malaysian ringgits and Tunisian dinar as a hedge for currency portfolios against GPR. The authors detect a positive connectedness in the short term between all pairs of the variables analyzed in most countries. (4) Both foreign exchange and equity markets are exposed to higher levels of systemic risk in the period of the Russian invasion of Ukraine.

Originality/value

This study provides information that supports investors, regulators and executive managers in developing countries. The impact of sentiment investor with GPR intensified the co-movements of stocks market and exchange market during 2021–2022, which overlaps with period of the Russian invasion of Ukraine.

Details

Review of Behavioral Finance, vol. 16 no. 3
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1940-5979

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 20 February 2023

Zakaria Sakyoud, Abdessadek Aaroud and Khalid Akodadi

The main goal of this research work is the optimization of the purchasing business process in the Moroccan public sector in terms of transparency and budgetary optimization. The…

Abstract

Purpose

The main goal of this research work is the optimization of the purchasing business process in the Moroccan public sector in terms of transparency and budgetary optimization. The authors have worked on the public university as an implementation field.

Design/methodology/approach

The design of the research work followed the design science research (DSR) methodology for information systems. DSR is a research paradigm wherein a designer answers questions relevant to human problems through the creation of innovative artifacts, thereby contributing new knowledge to the body of scientific evidence. The authors have adopted a techno-functional approach. The technical part consists of the development of an intelligent recommendation system that supports the choice of optimal information technology (IT) equipment for decision-makers. This intelligent recommendation system relies on a set of functional and business concepts, namely the Moroccan normative laws and Control Objectives for Information and Related Technology's (COBIT) guidelines in information system governance.

Findings

The modeling of business processes in public universities is established using business process model and notation (BPMN) in accordance with official regulations. The set of BPMN models constitute a powerful repository not only for business process execution but also for further optimization. Governance generally aims to reduce budgetary wastes, and the authors' recommendation system demonstrates a technical and methodological approach enabling this feature. Implementation of artificial intelligence techniques can bring great value in terms of transparency and fluidity in purchasing business process execution.

Research limitations/implications

Business limitations: First, the proposed system was modeled to handle one type products, which are computer-related equipment. Hence, the authors intend to extend the model to other types of products in future works. Conversely, the system proposes optimal purchasing order and assumes that decision makers will rely on this optimal purchasing order to choose between offers. In fact, as a perspective, the authors plan to work on a complete automation of the workflow to also include vendor selection and offer validation. Technical limitations: Natural language processing (NLP) is a widely used sentiment analysis (SA) technique that enabled the authors to validate the proposed system. Even working on samples of datasets, the authors noticed NLP dependency on huge computing power. The authors intend to experiment with learning and knowledge-based SA and assess the' computing power consumption and accuracy of the analysis compared to NLP. Another technical limitation is related to the web scraping technique; in fact, the users' reviews are crucial for the authors' system. To guarantee timeliness and reliable reviews, the system has to look automatically in websites, which confront the authors with the limitations of the web scraping like the permanent changing of website structure and scraping restrictions.

Practical implications

The modeling of business processes in public universities is established using BPMN in accordance with official regulations. The set of BPMN models constitute a powerful repository not only for business process execution but also for further optimization. Governance generally aims to reduce budgetary wastes, and the authors' recommendation system demonstrates a technical and methodological approach enabling this feature.

Originality/value

The adopted techno-functional approach enabled the authors to bring information system governance from a highly abstract level to a practical implementation where the theoretical best practices and guidelines are transformed to a tangible application.

Details

Kybernetes, vol. 53 no. 5
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 0368-492X

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 8 August 2023

Syed Faisal Shah

This paper has analysed the impact of cultural dimensions, investor sentiment and uncertainty on bank stock returns. Also, the study examined the influences of the interaction…

Abstract

Purpose

This paper has analysed the impact of cultural dimensions, investor sentiment and uncertainty on bank stock returns. Also, the study examined the influences of the interaction between cultural dimensions and individual (private) sentiment (investor sentiment).

Design/methodology/approach

To meet the study's objectives, a two-step generalised method of moments estimator was applied to the study sample, which included 105 banks in the nine Middle East and North African region countries between 2010 and 2020.

Findings

The cultural dimensions of individualism and masculinity were found to have a positive and significant effect on banks' buy and hold stock return (BUH). At the same time, power distance and uncertainty avoidance were discovered to have negative effects. Besides, the findings revealed that the interactions of power distance, individual sentiment and uncertainty avoidance had positive and significant relationships with banks' BUH. However, individualism, individual sentiment and masculinity had inverse relationships with banks' BUH. Furthermore, the findings revealed that investor sentiment positively influenced banks' BUH. Finally, uncertainty influenced banks' BUH stock returns positively.

Research limitations/implications

Important implications for participants in the financial sector and governments may be learnt from this study's conclusions. Due to cultural biases, this study's findings suggested that investors overreact in the stock market.

Originality/value

Additionally, this research comprises one of the few studies that have overviewed the link between classical and behavioural finance in MENA countries with distinctive cultural characteristics.

Details

Journal of Economic Studies, vol. 51 no. 3
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 0144-3585

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 16 February 2023

Wenjing Wang, Moting Wang and Yizhi Dong

The paper's purpose is to investigate the effects of digital finance on the risk of stock price crashes and the underlying transmission mechanisms, and to provide suggestions to…

Abstract

Purpose

The paper's purpose is to investigate the effects of digital finance on the risk of stock price crashes and the underlying transmission mechanisms, and to provide suggestions to inhibit the stock crash risk (CR).

Design/methodology/approach

This paper selects all companies that were listed on the Shanghai Stock Exchange and the Shenzhen Stock Exchange from 2011 to 2020. It then uses the two-way fixed effect model and the intermediary effect model to verify such effects.

Findings

The overall outcomes demonstrate such a result that the CR of listed companies in China can be significantly reduced by the development of digital finance, and the overall transparency of business financial information and the equity pledge of controlling shareholders are the two underlying transmission mechanisms that digital finance can cause effects on the CR of stocks.

Research limitations/implications

The main limitations are that there may exist some problems in the method for evaluating the CR of stocks. And there may be a problem of endogeneity caused by the empirical model cannot control all correlation variables.

Practical implications

This paper would provide policy implications, for different roles, to inhibit the stock CR and to make the development of the economy more stabilize.

Social implications

Digital finance can promote economic development while restraining financial risks at the same time. Therefore, although this study is based on the relevant data from China, it can also provide a reference for other economies with different basic conditions from China, to promote the overall development of the world economy.

Originality/value

The current academic research on digital finance or stock price CR has been relatively sufficient, but there are few papers that combined both. By combining digital finance with stock CR, this paper researches the influence of digital finance on the CR of stocks through empirical analysis. So, this paper would provide new research ideas and evidence for potential influence factors of the CR of stocks, fill the gap in this research field and provide certain help for subsequent scholars to conduct relevant research.

Details

Kybernetes, vol. 53 no. 5
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 0368-492X

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 13 February 2024

James Dean and Joshua C. Hall

The challenge of predicting changes in aggregate income and stock prices is one that has occupied the research agendas of economists. This paper aims to use the consumption–income…

Abstract

Purpose

The challenge of predicting changes in aggregate income and stock prices is one that has occupied the research agendas of economists. This paper aims to use the consumption–income ratio and the dividend–price ratio to predict future income and stock prices.

Design/methodology/approach

To examine the stability of the consumption–income ratio and the dividend–price ratio, the authors run a two-variable, two-lag reduced-form VAR in the vein of Cochrane (1994), using a lag of each respective ratio as exogenous to the VAR. Additionally, the authors estimate an AR(4) model for income and prices.

Findings

The consumption–income ratio and the dividend–price ratio remain key to understanding future movements in income and stock prices. The consumption–income ratio significantly predicts future income in the USA, and aggregate income is easier to predict than consumption in the VAR model. The dividend–price ratio does not significantly predict future price growth. Consumption and dividend shocks have lasting impacts on income and prices.

Originality/value

The consumption–income ratio and the dividend–price ratio are still key to understanding future movements in income and stock prices. The consumption–income ratio significantly predicts future income in the USA, and aggregate income is easier to predict than consumption in the VAR model. However, the dividend–price ratio does not significantly predict future price growth, a change from previous research from the 1990s, despite the increasing complexity of stock markets. Consumption and dividend shocks have lasting impacts on income and prices and appear to be significant drivers in both the short- and long-run variance in income and prices.

Details

Journal of Financial Economic Policy, vol. 16 no. 3
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1757-6385

Keywords

Open Access
Article
Publication date: 16 January 2024

Ville Jylhä, Noora Hirvonen and Jutta Haider

This study addresses how algorithmic recommendations and their affordances shape everyday information practices among young people.

Abstract

Purpose

This study addresses how algorithmic recommendations and their affordances shape everyday information practices among young people.

Design/methodology/approach

Thematic interviews were conducted with 20 Finnish young people aged 15–16 years. The material was analysed using qualitative content analysis, with a focus on everyday information practices involving online platforms.

Findings

The key finding of the study is that the current affordances of algorithmic recommendations enable users to engage in more passive practices instead of active search and evaluation practices. Two major themes emerged from the analysis: enabling not searching, inviting high trust, which highlights the how the affordances of algorithmic recommendations enable the delegation of search to a recommender system and, at the same time, invite trust in the system, and constraining finding, discouraging diversity, which focuses on the constraining degree of affordances and breakdowns associated with algorithmic recommendations.

Originality/value

This study contributes new knowledge regarding the ways in which algorithmic recommendations shape the information practices in young people's everyday lives specifically addressing the constraining nature of affordances.

Details

Journal of Documentation, vol. 80 no. 7
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 0022-0418

Keywords

Open Access
Article
Publication date: 29 February 2024

Mehroosh Tak, Kirsty Blair and João Gabriel Oliveira Marques

High levels of child obesity alongside rising stunting and the absence of a coherent food policy have deemed UK’s food system to be broken. The National Food Strategy (NFS) was…

Abstract

Purpose

High levels of child obesity alongside rising stunting and the absence of a coherent food policy have deemed UK’s food system to be broken. The National Food Strategy (NFS) was debated intensely in media, with discussions on how and who should fix the food system.

Design/methodology/approach

Using a mixed methods approach, the authors conduct framing analysis on traditional media and sentiment analysis of twitter reactions to the NFS to identify frames used to shape food system policy interventions.

Findings

The study finds evidence that the media coverage of the NFS often utilised the tropes of “culture wars” shaping the debate of who is responsible to fix the food system – the government, the public or the industry. NFS recommendations were portrayed as issues of free choice to shift the debate away from government action correcting for market failure. In contrast, the industry was showcased as equipped to intervene on its own accord. Dietary recommendations made by the NFS were depicted as hurting the poor, painting a picture of helplessness and loss of control, while their voices were omitted and not represented in traditional media.

Social implications

British media’s alignment with free market economic thinking has implications for food systems reform, as it deters the government from acting and relies on the invisible hand of the market to fix the system. Media firms should move beyond tropes of culture wars to discuss interventions that reform the structural causes of the UK’s broken food systems.

Originality/value

As traditional media coverage struggles to capture the diversity of public perception; the authors supplement framing analysis with sentiment analysis of Twitter data. To the best of our knowledge, no such media (and social media) analysis of the NFS has been conducted. The paper is also original as it extends our understanding of how media alignment with free market economic thinking has implications for food systems reform, as it deters the government from acting and relies on the invisible hand of the market to fix the system.

Details

British Food Journal, vol. 126 no. 13
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 0007-070X

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 8 June 2023

Jean C. Essila and Jaideep Motwani

This study aims to focus on the supply chain (SC) cost drivers of healthcare industries in the USA, as SC costs have increased 40% over the last decade. The second-most…

Abstract

Purpose

This study aims to focus on the supply chain (SC) cost drivers of healthcare industries in the USA, as SC costs have increased 40% over the last decade. The second-most significant expense, the SC, accounts for 38% of total expenses in a typical hospital, while most other industries can operate within 10% of their operating cost. This makes healthcare centers supply-chain-sensitive organizations with limited facilities for high-quality healthcare services. As the cost drivers of healthcare SC are almost unknown to managers, their jobs become more complex.

Design/methodology/approach

Guided by pragmatism and positivism paradigms, a cross-sectional study has been designed using quantitative and deductive approaches. Both primary and secondary data were used. Primary data were collected from health centers across the country, and secondary data were from healthcare-related databases. This study examined the attributes that explain the most significant variation in each contributing factor. With multiple regression analysis for predicting cost and Student's t-tests for the significance of contributing factors, the authors of this study examined different theories, including the market-based view and five-forces, network and transaction cost analysis.

Findings

This study revealed that supply, materials and services represent the most significant expenses in primary care. Supply-chain cost breakdown results in four critical factors: facility, inventory, information and transportation.

Research limitations/implications

This study examined the data from primary and secondary care institutions. Tertiary and quaternary care systems were not included. Although tertiary and quaternary care systems represent a small portion of the healthcare system, future research should address the supply chain costs of highly specialized organizations.

Practical implications

This study suggests methods that can help to improve supply chain operations in healthcare organizations worldwide.

Originality/value

This study presents an empirically proven methodology for testing the statistical significance of the primary factors contributing to healthcare supply chain costs. The results of this study may lead to positive policy changes to improve healthcare organizations' efficiency and increase access to high-quality healthcare.

Details

Benchmarking: An International Journal, vol. 31 no. 4
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1463-5771

Keywords

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