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Open Access
Article
Publication date: 6 September 2019

Ngo Thai Hung

The purpose of this paper is to examine the conditional correlations and spillovers of volatilities across CEE markets, namely, Hungary, Poland, the Czech Republic, Romania and…

2509

Abstract

Purpose

The purpose of this paper is to examine the conditional correlations and spillovers of volatilities across CEE markets, namely, Hungary, Poland, the Czech Republic, Romania and Croatia, in the post-2007 financial crisis period.

Design/methodology/approach

The authors use five-dimensional GARCH-BEKK alongside with the CCC and DCC models.

Findings

The estimation results of the three models generally demonstrate that the correlations between these markets are particularly significant. Also, own-volatility spillovers are generally lower than cross-volatility spillovers for all markets.

Practical implications

These results recommend that investors should take caution when investing in the CEE equity markets as well as diversifying their portfolios so as to minimize risk.

Originality/value

Unlike the previous studies in this field, this paper is the first study using multivariate GARCH-BEKK alongside with CCC and DCC models. The study makes an outstanding contribution to the existing literature on spillover effects and conditional correlations in the CEE financial stock markets.

Details

European Journal of Management and Business Economics, vol. 29 no. 1
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 2444-8494

Keywords

Open Access
Article
Publication date: 4 April 2023

Reetika Verma

The study aims is to explore the cointegration level among major Asian stock indices from pre- COVID-19 to post COVID-19 times.

Abstract

Purpose

The study aims is to explore the cointegration level among major Asian stock indices from pre- COVID-19 to post COVID-19 times.

Design/methodology/approach

Johansen cointegration test is employed to know the long run relationship among the stock market indices of Hong Kong, Indonesia, Malaysia, Korea, India, Japan, China, Taiwan, Israel and South Korea. The empirical testing was done to analyze whether any significant change has been induced by the COVID-19 pandemic on the cointegrating relationship of the selected markets or not. Through statistics of trace test and maximum eigen value, total number of cointegrating equations present among all the indices during different study periods were analyzed.

Findings

The presence of cointegration was found during all the sample periods and the findings suggests that the selected stock markets are associated with each other in general. During COVID-19 crisis period the cointegration level was reduced and again it regained its original level in the next year and again reduced in the subsequent next year. So, the cointegrating relationship among selected stock market indices remains dynamic and no evidence of impact of COVID-19 on this dynamism was found.

Originality/value

The study has explored the level of cointegration among the major stock indices of Asian nations in the pre, during, post-crisis and the most recent periods. The interconnectedness of the stock markets during the COVID-19 times has been compared with similar periods in different years immediately preceding and succeeding the COVID-19 times which has not been done in any of the existing study.

Details

IIM Ranchi journal of management studies, vol. 3 no. 1
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 2754-0138

Keywords

Open Access
Article
Publication date: 24 May 2023

Hayet Soltani, Jamila Taleb and Mouna Boujelbène Abbes

This paper aims to analyze the connectedness between Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) stock market index and cryptocurrencies. It investigates the relevant impact of RavenPack COVID…

Abstract

Purpose

This paper aims to analyze the connectedness between Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) stock market index and cryptocurrencies. It investigates the relevant impact of RavenPack COVID sentiment on the dynamic of stock market indices and conventional cryptocurrencies as well as their Islamic counterparts during the onset of the COVID-19 crisis.

Design/methodology/approach

The authors rely on the methodology of Diebold and Yilmaz (2012, 2014) to construct network-associated measures. Then, the wavelet coherence model was applied to explore co-movements between GCC stock markets, cryptocurrencies and RavenPack COVID sentiment. As a robustness check, the authors used the time-frequency connectedness developed by Barunik and Krehlik (2018) to verify the direction and scale connectedness among these markets.

Findings

The results illustrate the effect of COVID-19 on all cryptocurrency markets. The time variations of stock returns display stylized fact tails and volatility clustering for all return series. This stressful period increased investor pessimism and fears and generated negative emotions. The findings also highlight a high spillover of shocks between RavenPack COVID sentiment, Islamic and conventional stock return indices and cryptocurrencies. In addition, we find that RavenPack COVID sentiment is the main net transmitter of shocks for all conventional market indices and that most Islamic indices and cryptocurrencies are net receivers.

Practical implications

This study provides two main types of implications: On the one hand, it helps fund managers adjust the risk exposure of their portfolio by including stocks that significantly respond to COVID-19 sentiment and those that do not. On the other hand, the volatility mechanism and investor sentiment can be interesting for investors as it allows them to consider the dynamics of each market and thus optimize the asset portfolio allocation.

Originality/value

This finding suggests that the RavenPack COVID sentiment is a net transmitter of shocks. It is considered a prominent channel of shock spillovers during the health crisis, which confirms the behavioral contagion. This study also identifies the contribution of particular interest to fund managers and investors. In fact, it helps them design their portfolio strategy accordingly.

Details

European Journal of Management and Business Economics, vol. ahead-of-print no. ahead-of-print
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 2444-8451

Keywords

Open Access
Article
Publication date: 17 May 2022

Aswini Kumar Mishra, Saksham Agrawal and Jash Ashish Patwa

The study uses the multivariate GARCH-BEKK model (which was first proposed by Baba et al. (1990) and then further developed by Engle and Kroner (1995)) to examine the return and…

2209

Abstract

Purpose

The study uses the multivariate GARCH-BEKK model (which was first proposed by Baba et al. (1990) and then further developed by Engle and Kroner (1995)) to examine the return and volatility spillover between India and four leading Asian (namely, China, Japan, Singapore and Hong Kong) and two global (namely, the United Kingdom and the United States) equity markets.

Design/methodology/approach

The study employs a multivariate GARCH-BEKK model to quantify return correlation and volatility transmission across the pre- and post-2008 global financial crisis periods (apart from other conventional time series modelling like cointegration, Granger causality using vector error correction model (VECM)).

Findings

The results show a tendency of the Indian stock market index to move along with the US and Hong Kong market indices. The decrease in the value of the co-integration coefficient during the recession was explained by reduced investor confidence in developing countries. The result further shows a clear distinction in terms of volatility spillover between the Asian market vis-a-vis US and UK markets. Volatility transmission from India to Asian markets was found to be significantly higher as compared to the US and UK. So also, the study’s results show a puzzling result giving us comparable co-integration ranks for phase 2 (expansion) and phase 3 (slow-down) of the business cycle in most cases.

Research limitations/implications

In Granger causality testing, the results were unable to ascertain the difference between phase 2 (expansion) and phase 3 (slowdown). However, the multivariate GARCH (MGARCH)-BEKK model showed a clear reduction in volatility transmission to NIFTY50 (is the flagship index on the National Stock Exchange of India Ltd. (NSE)) as India entered slow-down. This shows that the Indian economy does go through different business cycles, and the changes in parameters hence prove hypothesis 3 to be true with respect to volatility transmission to India from International markets.

Originality/value

The results show that for all countries, the volatility transmitted to India increases significantly going from phase 1 (recession) to phase 2 (expansion) and reduces again once the countries enter slow-down in phase 3 (slowdown). This shows that during expansion shocks and impulses in international markets affect the Indian markets significantly, supporting the increase in co-integration in phase 2 (expansion). During expansion, developing markets like India become profitable for investors, due to the high growth rate when compared to developed countries. This implies that a significant amount of capital enters Indian markets, which is susceptible to the volatility of international markets. The volatility transmission from India to the US and UK was insignificant in phase 1 (recession and recovery) and phase 3 (slow-down) showing a weak linkage between the markets during volatile time periods.

Details

Journal of Economics, Finance and Administrative Science, vol. 27 no. 54
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 2218-0648

Keywords

Open Access
Article
Publication date: 1 November 2022

Thai-Ha Le, Long Hai Vo and Farhad Taghizadeh-Hesary

This study examines the co-integration relationships between Association of Southeast Nations (ASEAN) stock indices as a way to assess the feasibility of policy initiatives to…

1141

Abstract

Purpose

This study examines the co-integration relationships between Association of Southeast Nations (ASEAN) stock indices as a way to assess the feasibility of policy initiatives to strengthen market integration in ASEAN and identify implications for portfolio investors.

Design/methodology/approach

The authors employ threshold co-integration tests and a non-linear autoregressive distributed lag (NARDL) model to study the asymmetric dynamics of ASEAN equity markets. The study’s data cover the 2009–2022 period for seven member states: Cambodia, Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines, Singapore, Thailand and Vietnam.

Findings

The authors find evidence supporting co-integration relationships; adjustment toward equilibrium is asymmetric in the short run and symmetric in the long run for these countries. While co-movement in ASEAN equity markets seems encouraging for initiatives seeking to foster financial integration in regional economies, the benefits for international portfolio diversification appear to be neutralized.

Originality/value

The issue of stock market integration is important among policymakers, investors and academics. This study examines the level of stock market integration in ASEAN during the 2009–2022 period. For this purpose, advanced co-integration techniques are applied to different frequencies of data (daily, weekly and monthly) for comparison and completeness. The empirical analysis of this study is conducted using the Enders and Siklos (2001) co-integration and threshold adjustment procedure. This advanced co-integration technique is superior compared to other co-integration techniques by permitting asymmetry in the adjustment toward equilibrium.

Details

Journal of Asian Business and Economic Studies, vol. 31 no. 1
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 2515-964X

Keywords

Open Access
Article
Publication date: 16 June 2022

Fatma Mathlouthi and Slah Bahloul

This paper aims at examining the co-movement dependent regime and causality relationships between conventional and Islamic returns for emerging, frontier and developed markets

Abstract

Purpose

This paper aims at examining the co-movement dependent regime and causality relationships between conventional and Islamic returns for emerging, frontier and developed markets from November 2008 to August 2020.

Design/methodology/approach

First, the authors used the Markov-switching autoregression (MS–AR) model to capture the regime-switching behavior in the stock market returns. Second, the authors applied the Markov-switching regression and vector autoregression (MS-VAR) models in order to study, respectively, the co-movement and causality relationship between returns of conventional and Islamic indexes across market states.

Findings

Results show the presence of two different regimes for the three studied markets, namely, stability and crisis periods. Also, the authors found evidence of a co-movement relationship between the conventional and Islamic indexes for the three studied markets whatever the regime. For the Granger causality, it is proved only for emerging and developed markets and only during the stability regime. Finally, the authors conclude that Islamic indexes can act as diversifiers, or safe-haven assets are not strongly supported.

Originality/value

This paper is the first study that examines the co-movement and the causal relationship between conventional and Islamic indexes not only across different financial markets' regimes but also during the COVID-19 period. The findings may help investors in making educated decisions about whether or not to add Islamic indexes to their portfolios especially during the recent outbreak.

Details

Journal of Capital Markets Studies, vol. 6 no. 2
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 2514-4774

Keywords

Open Access
Article
Publication date: 14 September 2020

Matteo Foglia, Alessandra Ortolano, Elisa Di Febo and Eliana Angelini

The purpose of this paper is to study the evolution of financial contagion between Eurozone banks, observing the credit default swaps (CDSs) market during the period 2009–2017.

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Abstract

Purpose

The purpose of this paper is to study the evolution of financial contagion between Eurozone banks, observing the credit default swaps (CDSs) market during the period 2009–2017.

Design/methodology/approach

The authors use a dynamic spatial Durbin model that enables to explore the direct and indirect effects over the short and long run and the transmission channels of the contagion.

Findings

The results show how contagion emerges through physical and financial market links between banks. This finding implies that a bank can fail because people expect other related financial institutions to fail as well (self-fulfilling crisis). The study provides statistically significant evidence of the presence of credit risk spillovers in CDS markets. The findings show that equity market dynamics of “neighbouring” banks are important factors in risk transmission.

Originality/value

The research provides a new contribution to the analysis of EZ banking risk contagion, studying CDS spread determinants both under a temporal and spatial dimension. Considering the cross-dependence of credit spreads, the study allowed to verify the non-linearity between the probability of default of a debtor and the observed credit spreads (credit spread puzzle). The authors provide information on the transmission mechanism of contagion and, on the effects among the largest banks. In fact, through the study of short- and long-term impacts, direct and indirect, the paper classify banks of systemic importance according to their effect on the financial system.

Details

Studies in Economics and Finance, vol. 37 no. 4
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1086-7376

Keywords

Open Access
Article
Publication date: 8 August 2023

Mohd Ziaur Rehman and Karimullah Karimullah

The current study aims to examine the impact of two black swan events on the performance of six stock markets in Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) economies (Abu Dhabi, Bahrain…

Abstract

Purpose

The current study aims to examine the impact of two black swan events on the performance of six stock markets in Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) economies (Abu Dhabi, Bahrain, Dubai, Oman, Qatar and Saudi Arabia). The two selected black swan events are the US Mortgage and credit crisis (Global Financial Crisis of 2008) and the COVID-19 pandemic.

Design/methodology/approach

The performance of all the six stock markets are represented by their return and price volatility behavior, which has been measured by applying ARCH/GARCH model. The comparative analysis is done by employing mean difference models. The data is collected from Bloomberg on a daily frequency.

Findings

The response of two black swan events on the GCC stock markets has been heterogenous in nature. During the financial crisis, the impact was heavily felt on most of the stock markets in the GCC countries. It is revealed that the financial crisis had a negative significant impact on four of the six countries. Whereas during the COVID-19 crisis, it is revealed that there is no significant impact on four of the six selected stock markets. The positive significant impact is felt on two stock markets, namely, the Abu Dhabi stock market and the Saudi stock market.

Originality/value

The present investigation attempts to fill the gap in the literature on the intended topic because it is evident from the literature on the chosen subject that no study has been undertaken to evaluate and contrast the impact of the GFC crisis and COVID-19 on the GCC stock markets.

Details

Arab Gulf Journal of Scientific Research, vol. ahead-of-print no. ahead-of-print
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1985-9899

Keywords

Open Access
Article
Publication date: 27 January 2022

Arindam Das and Arindam Gupta

The purpose of this paper is to look at the contemporaneous movement of the stock market indices of the five most COVID-infected countries, namely, the USA, Brazil, Russia, India…

Abstract

Purpose

The purpose of this paper is to look at the contemporaneous movement of the stock market indices of the five most COVID-infected countries, namely, the USA, Brazil, Russia, India and UK after the first wave along with market indices of the three least affected countries, namely, Hong Kong, South Korea and New Zealand during the first wave.

Design/methodology/approach

Data have been collected from the website of Yahoo finance on daily closing values of five indices. Augmented Dickey–Fuller test with its three forms has been applied to check the stationarity of the select five indices at the level and at the first difference before the pandemic, during the pandemic and post-first wave of the pandemic. Johansen cointegration test is applied to find out that there is no cointegration among the select five indices.

Findings

The five countries do neither fall in the same economic and political zone nor do they have the same economic status. But during the period of pandemic and the new-normal period, the cointegration is very distinct. The developing and developed nations thus stood at an indifferentiable stage of the economic crisis which is well reflected in their stock markets. However, the least three COVID-affected countries do not show any cointegration during the pandemic time.

Originality/value

The comovement even seen during the normal time in the other studies is not compared to a similar period in earlier years. But, in this study to look into the exclusive effect of COVID pandemic, the period most affected with it is compared with the period after it and that in the immediate past year had no effect.

Details

IIM Ranchi journal of management studies, vol. 1 no. 1
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 2754-0138

Keywords

Open Access
Article
Publication date: 2 January 2023

Jung Hee Noh and Heejin Park

This study aims to explore empirical evidence of the impact of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions on stock market volatility.

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Abstract

Purpose

This study aims to explore empirical evidence of the impact of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions on stock market volatility.

Design/methodology/approach

Using panel data of 35 Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development countries from 1992 to 2018, we conduct both fixed effects panel model and Prais-Winsten model with panel-corrected standard errors.

Findings

The authors document that there is a significant positive relationship between GHG emissions and stock market volatility. The results remain robust after controlling for potential endogeneity problems.

Originality/value

This study contributes to the literature in that it provides additional empirical evidence for the financial risk posed by climate change.

Details

International Journal of Climate Change Strategies and Management, vol. 15 no. 1
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1756-8692

Keywords

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