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Ensuring the safety of structures is important. However, when a structure possesses both an implicit performance function and an extremely small failure probability, traditional methods struggle to conduct a reliability analysis. Therefore, this paper proposes a reliability analysis method aimed at enhancing the efficiency of rare event analysis, using the widely recognized Relevant Vector Machine (RVM).

Drawing from the principles of importance sampling (IS), this paper employs Harris Hawks Optimization (HHO) to ascertain the optimal design point. This approach not only guarantees precision but also facilitates the RVM in approximating the limit state surface. When the U learning function, designed for Kriging, is applied to RVM, it results in sample clustering in the design of experiment (DoE). Therefore, this paper proposes a FU learning function, which is more suitable for RVM.

Three numerical examples and two engineering problem demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed method.

By employing the HHO algorithm, this paper innovatively applies RVM in IS reliability analysis, proposing a novel method termed RVM-HIS. The RVM-HIS demonstrates exceptional computational efficiency, making it eminently suitable for rare events reliability analysis with implicit performance function. Moreover, the computational efficiency of RVM-HIS has been significantly enhanced through the improvement of the U learning function.

This study aims to address the inherent uncertainties within closed-loop supply chain (CLSC) networks through the application of a multi-objective approach, specifically focusing on the optimization of integrated production and transportation processes. The primary purpose is to enhance decision-making in supply chain management by formulating a robust multi-objective model.

In dealing with uncertainty, this study uses Pythagorean fuzzy numbers (PFNs) to effectively represent and quantify uncertainties associated with various parameters within the CLSC network. The proposed model is solved using Pythagorean hesitant fuzzy programming, presenting a comprehensive and innovative methodology designed explicitly for handling uncertainties inherent in CLSC contexts.

The research findings highlight the effectiveness and reliability of the proposed framework for addressing uncertainties within CLSC networks. Through a comparative analysis with other established approaches, the model demonstrates its robustness, showcasing its potential to make informed and resilient decisions in supply chain management.

This study successfully addressed uncertainty in CLSC networks, providing logistics managers with a robust decision-making framework. Emphasizing the importance of PFNs and Pythagorean hesitant fuzzy programming, the research offered practical insights for optimizing transportation routes and resource allocation. Future research could explore dynamic factors in CLSCs, integrate real-time data and leverage emerging technologies for more agile and sustainable supply chain management.

This research contributes significantly to the field by introducing a novel and comprehensive methodology for managing uncertainty in CLSC networks. The adoption of PFNs and Pythagorean hesitant fuzzy programming offers an original and valuable approach to addressing uncertainties, providing practitioners and decision-makers with insights to make informed and resilient decisions in supply chain management.

The aim of this paper is to provide a narrative review of previous research on tourism demand modelling and forecasting and potential future developments.

A narrative approach is taken in this review of the current body of knowledge.

Significant methodological advancements in tourism demand modelling and forecasting over the past two decades are identified.

The distinct characteristics of the various methods applied in the field are summarised and a research agenda for future investigations is proposed.

本文旨在对先前关于旅游需求建模和预测的研究进行叙述性回顾并对未来潜在发展进行展望。

本文采用叙述性回顾方法对当前知识体系进行了评论。

本文确认了过去二十年旅游需求建模和预测方法论方面的重要进展。

本文总结了该领域应用的各种方法的独特特征, 并对未来研究提出了建议。

El objetivo de este documento es ofrecer una revisión narrativa de la investigación previa sobre modelización y previsión de la demanda turística y los posibles desarrollos futuros.

En esta revisión del marco actual de conocimientos sobre modelización y previsión de la demanda turística y los posibles desarrollos futuros,se adopta un enfoque narrativo.

Se identifican avances metodológicos significativos en la modelización y previsión de la demanda turística en las dos últimas décadas.

Se resumen las características propias de los diversos métodos aplicados en este campo y se propone una agenda de investigación para futuros trabajos.

Based on resource dependence theory (RDT) and transaction cost theory (TCT), we aim to investigate the relationship between supply chain concentration and firm performance. Based on the resource-based perspective, we further investigate the moderating effect of marketing and operational capabilities on the relationship between supply chain concentration and firm performance.

Based on data from 2,082 firms with 8,371 observations from 2008 to 2020 in China, we use stochastic frontier analysis to calculate marketing capability and operational capability and use multinational regressions to test our research model.

We find a U-shaped relationship between supplier concentration and firm performance; there is also a U-shaped relationship between customer concentration and firm performance. In addition, the relationship between supplier concentration and firm financial performance is strengthened by the firm’s marketing capability, and the relationship between customer concentration and firm financial performance is weakened by the firm’s operational capability.

Drawing from RDT and TCT, this study extends the research on the impact of supply chain concentration on firm performance. The study finds that supply chain concentration and firm performance have a nonlinear relationship, and it is further moderated by marketing capability and operational capability, providing insights for managers.

This paper aims to examine the conditions under which small and medium enterprises (SMEs) invest in security services when they migrate their e-commerce applications to the cloud environment. Using a risk management perspective, the paper assesses the impact of security service pricing, security incident prevalence and virulence to estimate SME security spending at the market level and draw out implications for SMEs and security service providers.

Security risks are inherently characterized by uncertainty. This study uses a Monte Carlo approach to understand the role of uncertainty in the decision to adopt security services. A model relating key security constructs is assembled based on key constructs from the domain. By manipulating security service costs and security incident types, the model estimates the market-level adoption of services, security incidents and damages incurred, along with measures of their relative dispersion.

Three key findings emerge from this study. First, adoption of services and protection is higher when tiered security services are provided, indicating that SMEs prefer to choose their security services rather than accept uniformly priced products. Second, SMEs are considered price-sensitive, resulting in a maximum level of spending in the market. Third, results indicate that security incidents and damages can be much higher than the mean in some cases, and this should serve as a cautionary note to SMEs.

Security spending has been modeled at the firm level. Adopting a market-level perspective represents a novel contribution. Additionally, the Monte Carlo approach provides managers with tangible measures of uncertainty, affording additional information and insight when making security service adoption decisions.

This study aims to explore the smallholder farmers’ perceptions of climate change and its adaptation options (changing crop variety; improved crop and livestock; soil and water conservation [SWC]; and irrigation practices) and drought indices in the Dire Dawa Administration Zone, Eastern Ethiopia.

A cross-sectional household survey was used. A structured interview schedule for respondent households for key informants and focus group discussions were used. This study used both descriptive statistics and an econometric model. The model was used to compute the determinants of climate adaptation options in the study area. Drought characterization was carried out by DrinC software.

The results revealed households adapted to selected adaptation options. The model results confirmed that education level, farm size, tropical livestock units (TLUs) and access to agricultural extension services have positive and significant impacts on changing crop variety by 0.0014%, 0.045%, 0.032% and 0.035%, respectively. The likelihood of farmers’ decisions to use adaptation strategies (family size, TLU, agricultural extension service and distance from the market) has positive and significant impacts on SWC. The reconnaissance drought index (RDI6) of ONDJFM and AMJJAS showed extreme and severe drought index values of −2.88 and −1.96, respectively.

This study used a locally adopted climate change adaptation intervention for smallholder farmers, revealing the importance of drought characterization indices both seasonally and annually.

This research is aimed at preparing landslide susceptibility using spatial analysis and soft computing machine learning techniques based on convolutional neural networks (CNNs), artificial neural networks (ANNs) and logistic regression (LR) models.

Using the Geographical Information System (GIS), a spatial database including topographic, hydrologic, geological and landuse data is created for the study area. The data are randomly divided between a training set (70%), a validation (10%) and a test set (20%).

The validation findings demonstrate that the CNN model (has an 89% success rate and an 84% prediction rate). The ANN model (with an 84% success rate and an 81% prediction rate) predicts landslides better than the LR model (with a success rate of 82% and a prediction rate of 79%). In comparison, the CNN proves to be more accurate than the logistic regression and is utilized for final susceptibility.

Land cover data and geological data are limited in largescale, making it challenging to develop accurate and comprehensive susceptibility maps.

It helps to identify areas with a higher likelihood of experiencing landslides. This information is crucial for assessing the risk posed to human lives, infrastructure and properties in these areas. It allows authorities and stakeholders to prioritize risk management efforts and allocate resources more effectively.

The social implications of a landslide susceptibility map are profound, as it provides vital information for disaster preparedness, risk mitigation and landuse planning. Communities can utilize these maps to identify vulnerable areas, implement zoning regulations and develop evacuation plans, ultimately safeguarding lives and property. Additionally, access to such information promotes public awareness and education about landslide risks, fostering a proactive approach to disaster management. However, reliance solely on these maps may also create a false sense of security, necessitating continuous updates and integration with other risk assessment measures to ensure effective disaster resilience strategies are in place.

Landslide susceptibility mapping provides a proactive approach to identifying areas at higher risk of landslides before any significant events occur. Researchers continually explore new data sources, modeling techniques and validation approaches, leading to a better understanding of landslide dynamics and susceptibility factors.

This study aims to explore the dissemination and evolutionary path of online public opinion from a crisis management perspective. By clarifying the influencing factors and dynamic mechanisms of online public opinion dissemination, this study provides insights into attenuating the negative impact of online public opinion and creating a favorable ecological space for online public opinion.

This research employs bibliometric analysis and CiteSpace software to analyze 302 Chinese articles published from 2006 to 2023 in the China National Knowledge Infrastructure (CNKI) database and 276 English articles published from 1994 to 2023 in the Web of Science core set database. Through literature keyword clustering, co-citation analysis and burst terms analysis, this paper summarizes the core scientific research institutions, scholars, hot topics and evolutionary paths of online public opinion crisis management research from both Chinese and international academic communities.

The results show that the study of online public opinion crisis management in China and internationally is centered on the life cycle theory, which integrates knowledge from information, computer and system sciences. Although there are differences in political interaction and stage evolution, the overall evolutionary path is similar, and it develops dynamically in the “benign conflict” between the expansion of the research perspective and the gradual refinement of research granularity.

This study summarizes the research results of online public opinion crisis management from China and the international academic community and identifies current research hotspots and theoretical evolution paths. Future research can focus on deepening the basic theories of public opinion crisis management under the influence of frontier technologies, exploring the subjectivity and emotionality of web users using fine algorithms and promoting the international development of network public opinion crisis management theory through transnational comparison and international cooperation.

Health misinformation on social media threatens public health. A critical question that sheds light on the propagation of health misinformation across social media platforms revolves around identifying the specific types of social media users susceptible to this issue. This study provides an initial insight into this matter by examining the underlying psychological mechanism that renders users susceptible to health misinformation.

In this study, we developed an integrated model of susceptibility to health misinformation, drawing on the motivation-opportunity-ability theory and the elaboration likelihood model. We collected the data from a sample of 342 social media users in China. Furthermore, the fuzzy-set qualitative comparative analysis was adopted to examine the proposed model and uncover the causal recipes associated with susceptibility to health misinformation.

The results indicated that there are three configural types of users that are susceptible to health misinformation: the health-consciousness core-driven type, the popularity-driven core type and the dual-driven type characterized by both high health consciousness and information popularity. Among these, high health-consciousness and the reliance on information popularity-based pathways emerge as pivotal factors influencing susceptibility to health misinformation.

This study contributes to the social media literature by identifying various psychological traits that lead to social media users’ susceptibility to health misinformation. Additionally, the study provides comprehensive guidance on how to mitigate the spread of health misinformation.

The purpose of this study is to determine whether the Ottoman Empire’s net interest payments and foreign debt were sustainable or not in terms of their burden on budget revenues, using the method of historical econometric analysis.

In this study, the period between 1847 and 1882 of the Ottoman Empire is analyzed for sustainability analysis. Within the framework of the study, unit root tests and econometric analysis methods frequently used in the literature were used to analyze the sustainability of public debt. In the econometric analysis, in addition to various unit root tests, current econometric analysis methods, in particular Fourier expansion, were also used.

The results of econometric analyses showed that the burden of interest payments and foreign debt on the budget of the Ottoman state was unsustainable. This situation clearly shows the reason for the official bankruptcy of the Ottoman Empire, which was declared in 1875.

Although this study reveals the bankruptcy process of an important structure such as the Ottoman Empire in the historical process through econometric analyses, it also gives a very important message to today’s states. Accordingly, today’s state policies and decision-making mechanisms should take these results into account and strive to make the burden of public interest payments sustainable. It is believed that the study will shed light on the public finance policies of today’s states by drawing lessons from the collapse process of the Ottoman state.

Unlike the historical assessments in the literature on the decline of the Ottoman Empire, this study presents a cliometric approach by applying current econometric analysis techniques to past historical data. The study explains the unsustainability of the Ottoman Empire’s interest payments and external debt burden in the period under consideration in a way that, to the best of the authors’ knowledge, has not been done before.