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1 – 10 of 513Moinak Maiti and A. Balakrishnan
The purpose of this paper is to focus on one of the major emerging Asian economies – India – to examine the role of human capital in asset prices.
Abstract
Purpose
The purpose of this paper is to focus on one of the major emerging Asian economies – India – to examine the role of human capital in asset prices.
Design/methodology/approach
The analysis uses various statistical techniques (e.g. multifactor regression model, 3D graphs, GRS test and residual graphs) to test the role of human capital in asset prices.
Findings
A six-factor model designed for capturing the size, value, profitability, investment and human capital patterns in average portfolio returns performs better than both Fama–French’s (1993) three- and Fama–French’s (2015) five-factor model. The main problem of six-factor model is its failure in capturing the average returns on “microcap with low-value stocks that are highly profitable invests aggressively for asset growth but invests much lesser for human growth” and “microcap with unprofitable stocks whose returns behave like those of low-value firms with conservative investment”. The study finds the investment factor (CMA) of Fama–French’s (2015) five-factor model as the redundant factor for describing the portfolio average returns in the study sample.
Research limitations/implications
The paper argues that human capital also plays a role in predicting returns. This has significant public policy content.
Originality/value
The present study is novel for several reasons: first, it includes six-factor model descriptions; second, no comprehensive asset pricing study is done with human capital in Asian emerging markets, especially in India. Perhaps, this is the first study to examine whether portfolio returns are affected by the human capital in the Indian context. Third, the study period and methodology used are completely different from the previous studies.
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Rahul Roy and Santhakumar Shijin
The purpose of the study is to examine the dynamics in the troika of asset pricing, volatility, and the business cycle in the US and Japan.
Abstract
Purpose
The purpose of the study is to examine the dynamics in the troika of asset pricing, volatility, and the business cycle in the US and Japan.
Design/methodology/approach
The study uses a six-factor asset pricing model to derive the realized volatility measure for the GARCH-type models.
Findings
The comprehensive empirical investigation led to the following conclusion. First, the results infer that the market portfolio and human capital are the primary discounting factors in asset return predictability during various phases of the subprime crisis phenomenon for the US and Japan. Second, the empirical estimates neither show any significant impact of past conditional volatility on the current conditional volatility nor any significant effect of subprime crisis episodes on the current conditional volatility in the US and Japan. Third, there is no asymmetric volatility effect during the subprime crisis phenomenon in the US and Japan except the asymmetric volatility effect during the post-subprime crisis period in the US and full period in Japan. Fourth, the volatility persistence is relatively higher during the subprime crisis period in the US, whereas during the subprime crisis transition period in Japan than the rest of the phases of the subprime crisis phenomenon.
Originality/value
The study argues that the empirical investigations that employed the autoregressive method to derive the realized volatility measure for the parameter estimation of GARCH-type models may result in incurring spurious estimates. Further, the empirical results of the study show that using the six-factor asset pricing model in an intertemporal framework to derive the realized volatility measure yields better estimation results while estimating the parameters of GARCH-type models.
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The purpose of this paper is, to study macroeconomic risk factors driving the expected stock returns of listed private equity (LPE). The authors use LPE indices divided into…
Abstract
Purpose
The purpose of this paper is, to study macroeconomic risk factors driving the expected stock returns of listed private equity (LPE). The authors use LPE indices divided into different styles and regions from January 2004 to December 2016 and a set of country stock indices to estimate the macroeconomic risk profiles and corresponding risk premiums. Using a seemingly unrelated regressions (SUR) model to estimate factor sensitivities, the authors document that LPE indices exhibit stock market βs that are greater than 1. A one-factor asset pricing model using world stock market returns as the only possible risk factor is rejected on the basis of generalized method of moments (GMM) orthogonality conditions. In contrast, using the change in a currency basket, the G-7 industrial production, the G-7 term spread, the G-7 inflation rate and a recently proposed indicator of economic policy uncertainty as additional risk factors, this multifactor model is able to price a cross-section of expected LPE returns. The risk-return profile of LPE differs from country equity indices. Consequently, LPE should be treated as a separate asset class.
Design/methodology/approach
Following Ferson and Harvey (1994), the authors use an unconditional asset pricing model to capture the structure of returns across LPE. The authors use 11 LPE indices divided into different styles and regions from January 2004 to December 2016, and a set of country stock indices as spanning assets to estimate the macroeconomic risk profiles and corresponding risk premiums.
Findings
Using a seemingly unrelated regressions (SUR) model to estimate factor sensitivities, the authors document that LPE indices exhibit stock market ßs that are greater than 1. The authors estimate a one-factor asset pricing model using world stock market returns as the only possible risk factor by GMM. This model is rejected on the basis of the GMM orthogonality conditions. By contrast, a multifactor model built on the change in a currency basket, the G-7 industrial production, the G-7 term spread, the G-7 inflation rate and a recently proposed indicator of global economic policy uncertainty as additional risk factors is able to price a cross-section of expected LPE returns.
Research limitations/implications
Given data availability, the authors’ sample is strongly influenced by the financial crisis and its aftermath.
Practical implications
Information about the risk profile of LPE is important for asset allocation decisions. In particular, it may help to optimally react to contemporaneous changes in economy-wide risk factors.
Originality/value
To the best of authors’ knowledge, this is the first LPE study which investigates whether a set of macroeconomic factors is actually priced and, therefore, associated with a non-zero risk premium in the cross-section of returns.
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Jesse Alves da Cunha and Yudhvir Seetharam
Opinions have been divided on whether there is a rational explanation to the reason behind seasoned equity offerings (SEOs) or whether the explanation lies within the behavioural…
Abstract
Purpose
Opinions have been divided on whether there is a rational explanation to the reason behind seasoned equity offerings (SEOs) or whether the explanation lies within the behavioural intricacies attributed to stock market participants. The paper aims to discuss these issues.
Design/methodology/approach
This study investigates the long-run performance of firms conducting SEOs on the Johannesburg Stock Exchange (JSE) over the period of 1998–2015, by examining the return performance and operating performance of firms, along with the impact of investor sentiment on these variables.
Findings
The results of this study are inconsistent with the existing literature, which argues that the long-run performance of issuing firms signalled an initial underreaction to SEOs buoyed by over-optimistic investors.
Research limitations/implications
Instead, the long-run performance of issuing firms is adequately explained by the rational models centred on the risk-return framework, implying that investors are reacting swiftly to SEOs in an unbiased fashion.
Originality/value
Investor sentiment does not materially influence the long-run share performance or operating performance of issuing firms, casting doubt on the ability of the market timing theory to explain the long-run performance of SEOs. The authors thus find that SEO performance cannot be explained by behavioural-based reasoning, in contrast to some asset pricing studies on the JSE which indicate the role of sentiment in explaining returns.
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Eduardo Saucedo and Jorge González
Fama–French model (FFM) has been successful in helping to predict the financial markets, but investors have been interested in creating more sophisticated models to better predict…
Abstract
Purpose
Fama–French model (FFM) has been successful in helping to predict the financial markets, but investors have been interested in creating more sophisticated models to better predict the performance of the stock market. The objective of the extended version is to create a more robust econometric model to better predict the performance of the Mexican Stock Market.
Design/methodology/approach
The study divides the Mexican Stock Market into six different portfolios. The criteria to build those portfolios are the same one used in Fama–French (1992). The study comprises 78 stocks listed in the Mexican Stock Market that are analyzed monthly during 1997–2018. The study analyzes the period before and after the 2008–2009 financial crisis to identify whether there are important changes. The estimation applies the traditional and an extended version of the FFM that include macroeconomic variables such as country risk, economic activity, inflation rate, and exchange rate and some financial variables recommended in the literature.
Findings
Results indicate that classic FFM variables are statistically significant in most cases, but relevant macroeconomic variables such as the interest rate, exchange rate and country risk stand out for being weakly relevant in most of the portfolios. However, it is noticed that some of these macroeconomic variables became relevant for different portfolios only after the 2008–2009 crisis, especially in portfolios which include small market capitalization firms.
Research limitations/implications
The study includes the stocks listed in the Mexican Stock Market. One limitation is the small number of stocks available, which reduces the possibility of creating well diversified portfolios. This study includes 78 stocks. The stocks removed from the sample are from firms that were not listed during six consecutive months or whose market capitalization did not change in the same period. Outlier data were removed from the sample to capture in better way the general performance of the stock market.
Practical implications
The objective of the extended version is to create a more robust econometric model than the traditional model. It is expected that such estimations can be helpful to investors to make better decisions when they try to predict performance in the stock market.
Social implications
An extended version of the FFM can be helpful to investors to make better decisions when they try to predict performance in the stock market.
Originality/value
To the best of our knowledge there are no more studies in the literature of the Mexican financial market that apply the same methodology.
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Moinak Maiti, Victor Krakovich, S.M. Riad Shams and Darko B. Vukovic
The paper introduces a resource-based linear programming model for resource optimization in small innovative enterprises (SIE).
Abstract
Purpose
The paper introduces a resource-based linear programming model for resource optimization in small innovative enterprises (SIE).
Design/methodology/approach
The model is grounded on resource-based view on the firm and dynamic capabilities approach. Linear programming technique is used to provide the actual framework to the resource-based model.
Findings
The paper introduces a new resource-based linear programming model for resource optimization in small innovative enterprises. The conceptual model is grounded on resource-based view (RBV) and dynamic capabilities strategy. The RVB of firm and firm strategy is based on the concept of economic rent. Linear programming technique is used to provide the actual framework to the resource-based model. In developing the versatility concept, study suggests a distinct sight regarding resource fungibility. Study classifies resources into multipliable, rentable and expendable resources to increases adequacy of the model. The developed model includes both tangible and intangible assets such as human capital. The survival rate of SIE in the early stages of life cycle is very low due to the competition among SIEs. In this regard, the greatest advancement of the developed resource-based linear programming model is its simplicity and versatility which is much desirable for the SIE especially in their initial stages of the life cycle. Kelliher and Reinl (2009) argued that micro firms have unique advantage over bigger firms in following term: rate of learning or redeployment of strategy in micro firms is faster than the rate of change in their environment. One very significant feature of the developed resource-based linear programming model is that mathematically the proposed model could easily be transformed into mixed integer or stochastic linear programming models to meet the time variant requirement of small firms especially when it expands its operation.
Research limitations/implications
The survival rate of SIE in the early stages of life cycle is very low due to the competition among SIEs. In this regard, the greatest advancement of the developed resource-based linear programming model is its simplicity and versatility which is much desirable for the SIE especially in their initial stages of the life cycle. Kelliher and Reinl (2009) argued that micro firms have unique advantage over bigger firms in following term: rate of learning or redeployment of strategy in micro firms is faster than the rate of change in their environment. One very significant feature of the developed resource-based linear programming model is that mathematically the proposed model could easily be transformed into mixed integer or stochastic linear programming models to meet the time variant requirement of small firms especially when it expands its operation.
Originality/value
One very significant contribution of the present study is that the study develops a new resource-based model for SIE especially for the SIE in the initial stages of the life cycle, to gain competitive advantages. Furthermore, the present study contributes to the existing literature in strategy at least in three senses as mentioned below: 1. further addition of SIE research based on the RBV and dynamic capabilities in the strategy literature 2. in developing the versatility concept, the study suggests a distinct sight regarding resource fungibility and it classifies resources into three categories as follows: multipliable, rentable and expendable resources to increases adequacy of the model. 3. Finally, the study introduces a new resource-based linear programming model for SIE resources allocation. To the best of author’s knowledge, no such similar model is introduced by any previous studies for small firm. The greatest advancement of the developed resource-based linear programming model is its simplicity and versatility.
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In order to provide an updated view on the drivers of German stock returns, the authors evaluate the relative performance of nine competing neoclassical asset pricing models in…
Abstract
Purpose
In order to provide an updated view on the drivers of German stock returns, the authors evaluate the relative performance of nine competing neoclassical asset pricing models in the German stock market between November 1991 and December 2021.
Design/methodology/approach
The authors conduct asymptotically valid tests of model comparison when the extent of model mispricing is gauged by the squared Sharpe ratio improvement measure of Barillas et al. (2020).
Findings
The study finds that the Fama and French six-factor model with both traditional and updated value factors emerges as the dominant model.
Originality/value
The authors shed new light on the drivers of German stock returns through an updated and extended period of analysis, wider range of potential models and utilization of valid asymptotic tests of model comparison when models are nonnested (Barillas et al., 2020).
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Amal Zaghouani Chakroun and Dorra Mezzez Hmaied
The purpose of this paper is to examine alternative six- and seven-factor equity pricing models directed at capturing a new factor, aggregate volatility, in addition to market…
Abstract
Purpose
The purpose of this paper is to examine alternative six- and seven-factor equity pricing models directed at capturing a new factor, aggregate volatility, in addition to market, size, book to market, profitability, investment premiums of the Fama and French (2015) and Fama and French’s (2018) aggregate volatility augmented model.
Design/methodology/approach
The models are tested using a time series regression and Fama and Macbeth’s (1973) methodology.
Findings
The authors show that both six- and seven-factor models best explain average excess returns on the French stock market. In fact, the authors outperform Fama and French’s (2018) model. The authors use sensitivity of aggregate volatility of a stock VCAC as a proxy to construct the aggregate volatility risk factor. The spanning tests suggest that Fama and French’s (1993, 2015, 2018) and Carhart’s (1997) models do not explain the aggregate volatility risk factor FVCAC. The results show that the FVCAC factor earns significant αs across the different multifactor models and even after controlling for the exposure to all the other in Fama and French’s (2018) model. The asset pricing tests show that it is systematically priced. In fact, the authors find a significant and negative (positive) relation between the aggregate volatility risk factor and the excess returns in the French stock market when it is rising (falling), in addition, periods with downward market movements tend to coincide with high volatility.
Originality/value
The authors contribute to the related literature in several ways. First, the authors test two new empirical six- and seven-factor model and the authors compare them to Fama and French’s (2018) model. Second, the authors give new evidence about the VCAC, using it for the first time to the authors’ knowledge, to construct a volatility risk premium.
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Xiaoying Chen and Nicholas Ray-Wang Gao
Since the introduction of VIX to measure the spot volatility in the stock market, VIX and its futures have been widely considered to be the standard of underlying investor…
Abstract
Purpose
Since the introduction of VIX to measure the spot volatility in the stock market, VIX and its futures have been widely considered to be the standard of underlying investor sentiment. This study aims to examine how the magnitude of contango or backwardation (MCB volatility risk factor) derived from VIX and VIX3M may affect the pricing of assets.
Design/methodology/approach
This paper focuses on the statistical inference of three defined MCB risk factors when cross-examined with Fama–French’s five factors: the market factor Rm–Rf, the size factor SMB (small minus big), the value factor HML (high minus low B/M), the profitability factor RMW (robust minus weak) and the investing factor CMA (conservative minus aggressive). Robustness checks are performed with the revised HML-Dev factor, as well as with daily data sets.
Findings
The inclusions of the MCB volatility risk factor, either defined as a spread of monthly VIX3M/VIX and its monthly MA(20), or as a monthly net return of VIX3M/VIX, generally enhance the explanatory power of all factors in the Fama and French’s model, in particular the market factor Rm–Rf and the value factor HML, and the investing factor CMA also displays a significant and positive correlation with the MCB risk factor. When the more in-time adjusted HML-Dev factor, suggested by Asness (2014), replaces the original HML factor, results are generally better and more intuitive, with a higher R2 for the market factor and more explanatory power with HML-Dev.
Originality/value
This paper introduces the term structure of VIX to Fama–French’s asset pricing model. The MCB risk factor identifies underlying configurations of investor sentiment. The sensitivities to this timing indicator will significantly relate to returns across individual stocks or portfolios.
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John Galakis, Ioannis Vrontos and Panos Xidonas
This study aims to introduce a tree-structured linear and quantile regression framework to the analysis and modeling of equity returns, within the context of asset pricing.
Abstract
Purpose
This study aims to introduce a tree-structured linear and quantile regression framework to the analysis and modeling of equity returns, within the context of asset pricing.
Design/Methodology/Approach
The approach is based on the idea of a binary tree, where every terminal node parameterizes a local regression model for a specific partition of the data. A Bayesian stochastic method is developed including model selection and estimation of the tree structure parameters. The framework is applied on numerous U.S. asset pricing models, using alternative mimicking factor portfolios, frequency of data, market indices, and equity portfolios.
Findings
The findings reveal strong evidence that asset returns exhibit asymmetric effects and non- linear patterns to different common factors, but, more importantly, that there are multiple thresholds that create several partitions in the common factor space.
Originality/Value
To the best of the authors' knowledge, this paper is the first to explore and apply a tree-structured and quantile regression framework in an asset pricing context.
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