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The literature on economic forecasting, is showing an increase in criticism, of the inaccuracy of forecasts, with major implications for economic, and fiscal policymaking. Forecasts are subject to the systemic uncertainty of human systems, considerable event-driven uncertainty, and show biases towards optimistic growth paths. The purpose of this study is to consider approaches to improve economic foresight.

This study describes the practice of economic foresight as evolving in two separate, non-overlapping branches, short-term economic forecasting, and long-term scenario analysis of development, the latter found in studies of climate change and sustainability. The unique case of Ireland is considered, a country that has experienced both steep growth and deep troughs, with uncertainty that has confounded forecasting. The challenges facing forecasts are discussed, with brief review of the drivers of growth, and of long-term economic scenarios in the global literature.

Economic forecasting seeks to manage uncertainty by improving the accuracy of quantitative point forecasts, and related models. Yet, systematic forecast failures remain, and the economy defies prediction, even in the near-term. In contrast, long-term scenario analysis eschews forecasts in favour of a set of plausible or possible alternative scenarios. Using alternative scenarios is a response to the irreducible uncertainty of complex systems, with sophisticated approaches employed to integrate qualitative and quantitative insights.

To support economic and fiscal policymaking, it is necessary support advancement in approaches to economic foresight, to improve handling of uncertainty and related risk.

While European Union Regulation (EC) 1466/97 mandates pursuit of improved accuracy, in short-term economic forecasts, there is now a case for implementing advanced foresight approaches, for improved analysis, and more robust decision-making.

Building economic resilience and adaptability, as part of a sustainable future, requires both long-term strategic planning, and short-term policy. A 21st century policymaking process can be better supported by analysis of alternative scenarios.

To the best of the authors’ knowledge, the article is original in considering the application of scenario foresight approaches, in economic forecasting. The study has value in improving the baseline forecast methods, that are fundamental to contemporary economics, and in bringing the field of economics into the heart of foresight.

The aim of this paper is to provide a narrative review of previous research on tourism demand modelling and forecasting and potential future developments.

A narrative approach is taken in this review of the current body of knowledge.

Significant methodological advancements in tourism demand modelling and forecasting over the past two decades are identified.

The distinct characteristics of the various methods applied in the field are summarised and a research agenda for future investigations is proposed.

本文旨在对先前关于旅游需求建模和预测的研究进行叙述性回顾并对未来潜在发展进行展望。

本文采用叙述性回顾方法对当前知识体系进行了评论。

本文确认了过去二十年旅游需求建模和预测方法论方面的重要进展。

本文总结了该领域应用的各种方法的独特特征, 并对未来研究提出了建议。

El objetivo de este documento es ofrecer una revisión narrativa de la investigación previa sobre modelización y previsión de la demanda turística y los posibles desarrollos futuros.

En esta revisión del marco actual de conocimientos sobre modelización y previsión de la demanda turística y los posibles desarrollos futuros,se adopta un enfoque narrativo.

Se identifican avances metodológicos significativos en la modelización y previsión de la demanda turística en las dos últimas décadas.

Se resumen las características propias de los diversos métodos aplicados en este campo y se propone una agenda de investigación para futuros trabajos.

Indian railways (IR) is one of the largest railway networks in the world. As a part of its strategic development initiative, demand forecasting can be one of the indispensable activities, as it may provide basic inputs for planning and control of various activities such as coach production, planning new trains, coach augmentation and quota redistribution. The purpose of this study is to suggest an approach to demand forecasting for IR management.

A case study is carried out, wherein several models i.e. automated autoregressive integrated moving average (auto-ARIMA), trigonometric regressors (TBATS), Holt–Winters additive model, Holt–Winters multiplicative model, simple exponential smoothing and simple moving average methods have been tested. As per requirements of IR management, the adopted research methodology is predominantly discursive, and the passenger reservation patterns over a five-year period covering a most representative train service for the past five years have been employed. The relative error matrix and the Akaike information criterion have been used to compare the performance of various models. The Diebold–Mariano test was conducted to examine the accuracy of models.

The coach production strategy has been proposed on the most suitable auto-ARIMA model. Around 6,000 railway coaches per year have been produced in the past 3 years by IR. As per the coach production plan for the year 2023–2024, a tentative 6551 coaches of various types have been planned for production. The insights gained from this paper may facilitate need-based coach manufacturing and optimum utilization of the inventory.

This study contributes to the literature on rail ticket demand forecasting and adds value to the process of rolling stock management. The proposed model can be a comprehensive decision-making tool to plan for new train services and assess the rolling stock production requirement on any railway system. The analysis may help in making demand predictions for the busy season, and the management can make important decisions about the pricing of services.

The Chinese housing market has witnessed rapid growth during the past decade and the significance of housing price forecasting has undoubtedly elevated, becoming an important issue to investors and policymakers. This study aims to examine neural networks (NNs) for office property price index forecasting from 10 major Chinese cities for July 2005–April 2021.

The authors aim at building simple and accurate NNs to contribute to pure technical forecasts of the Chinese office property market. To facilitate the analysis, the authors explore different model settings over algorithms, delays, hidden neurons and data-spitting ratios.

The authors reach a simple NN with three delays and three hidden neurons, which leads to stable performance of about 1.45% average relative root mean square error across the 10 cities for the training, validation and testing phases.

The results could be used on a standalone basis or combined with fundamental forecasts to form perspectives of office property price trends and conduct policy analysis.

The demand for the cold chain logistics of agricultural products was investigated through demand forecasting; targeted suggestions and countermeasures are provided. This paper aims to discuss the aforementioned statement.

A Markov-optimised mean GM (1, 1) model is proposed to forecast the demand for the cold chain logistics of agricultural products. The mean GM (1, 1) model was used to forecast the demand trend, and the Markov chain model was used for optimisation. Considering Guangxi province as an example, the feasibility and effectiveness of the proposed method were verified, and relevant suggestions are made.

Compared with other models, the Markov-optimised mean GM (1, 1) model can more effectively forecast the demand for the cold chain logistics of agricultural products, is closer to the actual value and has better accuracy and minor error. It shows that the demand forecast can provide specific suggestions and theoretical support for the development of cold chain logistics.

This study evaluated the development trend of the cold chain logistics of agricultural products based on the research horizon of demand forecasting for cold chain logistics. A Markov-optimised mean GM (1, 1) model is proposed to overcome the problem of poor prediction for series with considerable fluctuation in the modelling process, and improve the prediction accuracy. It finds a breakthrough to promote the development of cold chain logistics through empirical analysis, and give relevant suggestions based on the obtained results.

This paper aims to propose an improved version of portfolio optimization model through the prediction of the future behavior of stock returns using a combined wavelet-based long short-term memory (LSTM).

First, data are gathered and divided into two parts, namely, “past data” and “real data.” In the second stage, the wavelet transform is proposed to decompose the stock closing price time series into a set of coefficients. The derived coefficients are taken as an input to the LSTM model to predict the stock closing price time series and the “future data” is created. In the third stage, the mean-variance portfolio optimization problem (MVPOP) has iteratively been run using the “past,” “future” and “real” data sets. The epsilon-constraint method is adapted to generate the Pareto front for all three runes of MVPOP.

The real daily stock closing price time series of six stocks from the FTSE 100 between January 1, 2000, and December 30, 2020, is used to check the applicability and efficacy of the proposed approach. The comparisons of “future,” “past” and “real” Pareto fronts showed that the “future” Pareto front is closer to the “real” Pareto front. This demonstrates the efficacy and applicability of proposed approach.

Most of the classic Markowitz-based portfolio optimization models used past information to estimate the associated parameters of the stocks. This study revealed that the prediction of the future behavior of stock returns using a combined wavelet-based LSTM improved the performance of the portfolio.

In a volatile agricultural postharvest market, producers require more personalized information about market dynamics for informed decisions on the marketed surplus. However, this adaptive strategy fails to benefit them if the selection of a computational price predictive model to disseminate information on the market outlook is not efficient, and the associated risk of perishability, and storage cost factor are not assumed against the seemingly favourable market behaviour. Consequently, the decision of whether to store or sell at the time of crop harvest is a perennial dilemma to solve. With the intent of addressing this challenge for agricultural producers, the study is focused on designing an agricultural decision support system (ADSS) to suggest a favourable marketing strategy to crop producers.

The present study is guided by an eclectic theoretical perspective from supply chain literature that included agency theory, transaction cost theory, organizational information processing theory and opportunity cost theory in revenue risk management. The paper models a structured iterative algorithmic framework that leverages the forecasting capacity of different time series and machine learning models, considering the effect of influencing factors on agricultural price movement for better forecasting predictability against market variability or dynamics. It also attempts to formulate an integrated risk management framework for effective sales planning decisions that factors in the associated costs of storage, rental and physical loss until the surplus is held for expected returns.

Empirical demonstration of the model was simulated on the dynamic markets of tomatoes, onions and potatoes in a north Indian region. The study results endorse that farmer-centric post-harvest information intelligence assists crop producers in the strategic sales planning of their produce, and also vigorously promotes that the effectiveness of decision making is contingent upon the selection of the best predictive model for every future market event.

As a policy implication, the proposed ADSS addresses the pressing need for a robust marketing support system for the socio-economic welfare of farming communities grappling with distress sales, and low remunerative returns.

Based on the extant literature studied, there is no such study that pays personalized attention to agricultural producers, enabling them to make a profitable sales decision against the volatile post-harvest market scenario. The present research is an attempt to fill that gap with the scope of addressing crop producer's ubiquitous dilemma of whether to sell or store at the time of harvesting. Besides, an eclectic and iterative style of predictive modelling has also a limited implication in the agricultural supply chain based on the literature; however, it is found to be a more efficient practice to function in a dynamic market outlook.

This paper aims to Solar photovoltaic (PV) power can significantly impact the power system because of its intermittent nature. Hence, an accurate solar PV power forecasting model is required for appropriate power system planning.

In this paper, a long short-term memory (LSTM)-based double deep Q-learning (DDQL) neural network (NN) is proposed for forecasting solar PV power indirectly over the long-term horizon. The past solar irradiance, temperature and wind speed are used for forecasting the solar PV power for a place using the proposed forecasting model.

The LSTM-based DDQL NN reduces over- and underestimation and avoids gradient vanishing. Thus, the proposed model improves the forecasting accuracy of solar PV power using deep learning techniques (DLTs). In addition, the proposed model requires less training time and forecasts solar PV power with improved stability.

The proposed model is trained and validated for several places with different climatic patterns and seasons. The proposed model is also tested for a place with a temperate climatic pattern by constructing an experimental solar PV system. The training, validation and testing results have confirmed the practicality of the proposed solar PV power forecasting model using LSTM-based DDQL NN.

Online reviews serve as valuable sources of information, reflecting tourists’ attentions, preferences and sentiments. However, although the existing research has demonstrated that incorporating online review data can enhance the performance of tourism demand forecasting models, the reliability of online review data and consumers’ decision-making process have not been given adequate attention. To address the aforementioned problem, the purpose of this study is to forecast tourism demand using online review data derived from the analysis of review helpfulness.

The authors propose a novel “identification-first, forecasting-second” framework. This framework prioritizes the identification of helpful reviews through a comprehensive analysis of review helpfulness, followed by the integration of helpful online review data into the forecasting system. Using the SARIMAX model with helpful online review data sourced from TripAdvisor, this study forecasts tourist arrivals in Hong Kong during the period from August 2012 to June 2019. The SNAÏVE/SARIMA model was used as the benchmark model. Additionally, artificial intelligence models including long short-term memory, back propagation neural network, extreme learning machine and random forest models were used to assess the robustness of the results.

The results demonstrate that online review data are subject to noise and bias, which can adversely affect the accuracy of predictions when used directly. However, by identifying helpful online reviews beforehand and incorporating them into the forecasting process, a notable enhancement in predictive performance can be realized.

First, to the best of the authors’ knowledge, this study is one of the first to focus on the data issue of online reviews on tourism arrivals forecasting. Second, this study pioneers the integration of the consumer decision-making process into the domain of tourism demand forecasting, marking one of the earliest endeavors in this area. Third, this study makes a novel attempt to identify helpful online reviews based on reviews helpfulness analysis.

Coal is a critical global energy source, and fluctuations in its price significantly impact related enterprises' profitability. This study aims to develop a robust model for predicting the coal price index to enhance coal purchase strategies for coal-consuming enterprises and provide crucial information for global carbon emission reduction.

The proposed coal price forecasting system combines data decomposition, semi-supervised feature engineering, ensemble learning and deep learning. It addresses the challenge of merging low-resolution and high-resolution data by adaptively combining both types of data and filling in missing gaps through interpolation for internal missing data and self-supervision for initiate/terminal missing data. The system employs self-supervised learning to complete the filling of complex missing data.

The ensemble model, which combines long short-term memory, XGBoost and support vector regression, demonstrated the best prediction performance among the tested models. It exhibited superior accuracy and stability across multiple indices in two datasets, namely the Bohai-Rim steam-coal price index and coal daily settlement price.

The proposed coal price forecasting system stands out as it integrates data decomposition, semi-supervised feature engineering, ensemble learning and deep learning. Moreover, the system pioneers the use of self-supervised learning for filling in complex missing data, contributing to its originality and effectiveness.