Search results

Compares the predictive performance of artificial neural networks to hedonic pricing models, a more traditional valuation tool. The results document similar predictive performance evidenced from both techniques, which contradicts some of the earlier studies which support a position of artificial neural network superiority. Demonstrates that at least 18 per cent of the “normal” property predictions and over 70 per cent of the “outlier” property predictions contained valuation errors greater than 15 per cent of the actual sales price. The combination of these substantial errors and the model‐optimization costs incurred motivate a message of caution before artificial neural networks are adopted by the real estate valuation and/or lending industries.

This study examines the accuracy and bias of profit forecasts disclosed in prospectuses by New Zealand companies for initial public offerings during the period 1987 to 1994. The results show that profit forecasts in this period are, on average, more accurate titan those disclosed prior to 1987, which were examined in prior studies. However, the results reject the null hypothesis that profit forecasts are accurate. In examining forecast bias, the evidence shows that the forecasts are, on average, somewhat pessimistic, but not sufficiently to reject the hypothesis that profit forecasts are unbiased. Tests of the determinants of error show that larger companies make more accurate forecasts, and forecasts made in the year 1987 are less accurate than in other years. Tests of the determinants of bias show that forecasts made in 1987 are also more optimistic, and that companies with longer trading histories and pessimistic forecasts make less biased forecasts. Forecast period and industry type are not significantly related to error or bias.

In today’s digital world, real-time health monitoring is becoming a most important challenge in the field of medical research. Body signals such as electrocardiogram (ECG), electromyogram and electroencephalogram (EEG) are produced in human body. This continuous monitoring generates huge count of data and thus an efficient method is required to shrink the size of the obtained large data. Compressed sensing (CS) is one of the techniques used to compress the data size. This technique is most used in certain applications, where the size of data is huge or the data acquisition process is too expensive to gather data from vast count of samples at Nyquist rate. This paper aims to propose Lion Mutated Crow search Algorithm (LM-CSA), to improve the performance of the LMCSA model.

A new CS algorithm is exploited in this paper, where the compression process undergoes three stages: designing of stable measurement matrix, signal compression and signal reconstruction. Here, the compression process falls under certain working principle, and is as follows: signal transformation, computation of Θ and normalization. As the main contribution, the theta value evaluation is proceeded by a new “Enhanced bi-orthogonal wavelet filter.” The enhancement is given under the scaling coefficients, where they are optimally tuned for processing the compression. However, the way of tuning seems to be the great crisis, and hence this work seeks the strategy of meta-heuristic algorithms. Moreover, a new hybrid algorithm is introduced that solves the above mentioned optimization inconsistency. The proposed algorithm is named as “Lion Mutated Crow search Algorithm (LM-CSA),” which is the hybridization of crow search algorithm (CSA) and lion algorithm (LA) to enhance the performance of the LM-CSA model.

Finally, the proposed LM-CSA model is compared over the traditional models in terms of certain error measures such as mean error percentage (MEP), symmetric mean absolute percentage error (SMAPE), mean absolute scaled error, mean absolute error (MAE), root mean square error, L1-norm and L2-normand infinity-norm. For ECG analysis, under bior 3.1, LM-CSA is 56.6, 62.5 and 81.5% better than bi-orthogonal wavelet in terms of MEP, SMAPE and MAE, respectively. Under bior 3.7 for ECG analysis, LM-CSA is 0.15% better than genetic algorithm (GA), 0.10% superior to particle search optimization (PSO), 0.22% superior to firefly (FF), 0.22% superior to CSA and 0.14% superior to LA, respectively, in terms of L1-norm. Further, for EEG analysis, LM-CSA is 86.9 and 91.2% better than the traditional bi-orthogonal wavelet under bior 3.1. Under bior 3.3, LM-CSA is 91.7 and 73.12% better than the bi-orthogonal wavelet in terms of MAE and MEP, respectively. Under bior 3.5 for EEG, L1-norm of LM-CSA is 0.64% superior to GA, 0.43% superior to PSO, 0.62% superior to FF, 0.84% superior to CSA and 0.60% better than LA, respectively.

This paper presents a novel CS framework using LM-CSA algorithm for EEG and ECG signal compression. To the best of the authors’ knowledge, this is the first work to use LM-CSA with enhanced bi-orthogonal wavelet filter for enhancing the CS capability as well reducing the errors.

Mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) is the primary forecast evaluation metric in hospitality and tourism research; however its main shortcoming is that it is asymmetric. The asymmetry occurs due to over or under forecasts that introduce bias into forecast evaluation. This study aims to explore the nature of asymmetry and designs a new measure, one that reduces the asymmetric properties while maintaining MAPE’s scale-free and intuitive interpretation characteristics.

The study proposes and tests a new forecasting accuracy measure for hospitality revenue management (RM). A computer simulation is used to assess and demonstrate the problem of asymmetry when forecasting with MAPE, and the new measures’ (MSapeMER, that is, Mean of Selectively applied Absolute Percentage Error or Magnitude of Error Relative to the estimate) ability to reduce it. The MSapeMER’s effectiveness is empirically validated by using a large set of hotel forecasts.

The study demonstrates the ability of the MSapeMER to reduce the asymmetry bias generated by MAPE. Furthermore, this study demonstrates that MSapeMER is more effective than previous attempts to correct for asymmetry bias. The results show via simulation and empirical investigation that the error metric is more stable and less swayed by the presence of over and under forecasts.

It is recommended that hospitality RM researchers and professionals adopt MSapeMER when using MAPE to evaluate forecasting performance. The MSapeMER removes the potential bias that MAPE invites due to its calculation and presence of over and under forecasts. Therefore, forecasting evaluations may be less affected by the presence of over and under forecasts and their ability to bias forecasting results.

Hospitality RM should adopt this measure when MAPE is used, to reduce biased decisions driven by the “asymmetry of MAPE.”

The MAPE error metric exhibits an asymmetry problem, and this paper proposes a more effective solution to reduce biased results with two major methodological contributions. It is first to systematically study the characteristics of MAPE’s asymmetry, while proposing and testing a measure that considerably reduces the amount of asymmetry. This is a critical contribution because MAPE is the primary forecasting metric in hospitality and tourism studies. The second methodological contribution is a procedure developed to “quantify” the asymmetry. The approach is demonstrated and allows future research to compare asymmetric characteristics among various accuracy measures.

We know that estimates of terminal value of long‐term investment horizons are biased. Unbiased estimates exist only for investment horizon of one time‐period. The purpose of this paper is to suggest a method based on the arithmetic mean in order to obtain unbiased estimates for the terminal value of long‐term investment horizons.

The method used for the investigation was to employ loss functions or error statistics. Namely, the mean error, the mean absolute error, the root mean squared error, and the mean absolute percentage error was used.

The suggested method produced the closest values to the actual ones than any other suggested averaging method when the authors examined ten‐year investment horizons for Standard & Poor's 500 index and on Dow Jones Industrial index.

Portfolio managers and individual investors may use this paper's suggestion if they wish to obtain unbiased estimates for investment horizons greater than one time‐period.

The suggestion to equate the time‐period of the observed data to the time‐period of the investment horizons is novel and useful to practitioners since it produces unbiased estimates.

For decades, continuous research work is going on to maximize the power harvested from the sun; however, there is only a limited analysis on exploiting the microwatt output power from indoor lightings. Microelectronic system has power demand in the µW range, and therefore, indoor photovoltaics would be appropriate for micro-energy harvesting appliances. “Energy harvesting is defined as the transfer process by which energy source is acquired from the ambient energy, stored in energy storage element and powered to the target systems”. The theory of energy harvesting is: gathering energy from surroundings and offering technological solutions such as solar energy harvesting, wind energy collection and vibration energy harvesting. “The solar cell or photovoltaic cell (PV), is a device that converts light into electric current using the photoelectric effect”. Factors such as light source, temperature, circuit connection, light intensity, angle and height can manipulate the functions of PV cells. Among these, the most noticeable factor is the light intensity that has a major impact on the operations of solar panels.

This paper aims to design an enhanced prediction model on illuminance or irradiance by an optimized artificial neural network (ANN). The input attributes or the features considered here are temperatures, maxim, TSL, VI, short circuit current, open-circuit voltage, maximum power point (MPP) voltage, MPP current and MPP power, respectively. To enhance the performance of the prediction model, the weights of ANN are optimally tuned by a new self-improved brain storm optimization (SI-BSO) model.

The superiority of the implemented work is compared and proved over the conventional models in terms of error analysis and prediction analysis. Accordingly, the presented approach was analysed and its superiority was proved over other conventional schemes such as ANN, ANN-Levenberg–Marquardt (LM), adaptive-network-based fuzzy inference system (ANFIS) and brainstorm optimization (BSO). In addition, analysis was held with respect to error measures such as mean absolute relative error (MARE), mean square root error (MSRE), mean absolute error and mean absolute percentage error. Moreover, prediction analysis was also performed that revealed the betterment of the presented model. More particularly, the proposed ANN + SI-BSO model has attained minimal error for all measures when compared to the existing schemes. More particularly, on considering the MARE, the adopted model for data set 1 was 23.61%, 48.12%, 79.39% and 90.86% better than ANN, ANN-LM, ANFIS and BSO models, respectively. Similarly, on considering data set 2, the MSRE of the implemented model was 99.87%, 70.69%, 99.57% and 94.74% better than ANN, ANN-LM, ANFIS and BSO models, respectively. Thus, the enhancement of the presented ANN + SI-BSO scheme has been validated effectively.

This work has established an improved illuminance/irradiance prediction model using the optimization concept. Here, the attributes, namely, temperature, maxim, TSL, VI, Isc, Voc, Vmpp, Impp and Pmpp were given as input to ANN, in which the weights were chosen optimally. For the optimal selection of weights, a novel ANN + SI-BSO model was established, which was an improved version of the BSO model.

This paper attempts to shed light on the issue whether investors' earnings expectations completely align with analysts' forecasts. I find that current price level is not significantly correlated with one‐year‐out realized earnings, but, it is significantly correlated with two‐year‐out, three‐year‐out, four‐year‐out and five‐year‐out realized earnings after I control for analysts' forecasts (and current earnings). Current price is found to be useful in improving the accuracy of long‐term analyst consensus forecasts. My findings are consistent with the notion that the market's near term expectation closely follows analyst forecasts while the market's long‐term expectation contains more information than analyst consensus forecasts.

The purpose of this study is to build a high accuracy thrust model under various small turbojet engine shaft speeds by using robust, ordinary, linear and nonlinear least squares estimation methods for target drone applications.

The dynamic shaft speeds from the test experiment of a target drone engine is conducted. Then, thrust values are calculated. Based on these, the engine thrust is modeled by robust linear and nonlinear equations. The models are benefited from quadratic, power and various series expansion functions with several coefficients to optimize the model parameters.

The error terms and accuracy of the model are given using sum of squared errors, root mean square error (RMSE) and R-squared (R²) error definitions. Based on the multiple analyses, it is seen that the RMSE values are no more than 17.7539 and the best obtained result for robust least squares estimation is 15.0086 for linear at all cases. Furthermore, the R² value is found to be 0.9996 as the highest with the nonlinear Fourier series expansion model.

The motivation behind this paper is to propose robust nonlinear thrust models based on power, Fourier and various series expansion functions for dynamic shaft speeds from the test experiments.

Researchers in economics and other disciplines are often interested in the causal effect of a binary treatment on outcomes. Econometric methods used to estimate such effects are divided into one of two strands depending on whether they require unconfoundedness (i.e., independence of potential outcomes and treatment assignment conditional on a set of observable covariates). When this assumption holds, researchers now have a wide array of estimation techniques from which to choose. However, very little is known about their performance – both in absolute and relative terms – when measurement error is present. In this study, the performance of several estimators that require unconfoundedness, as well as some that do not, are evaluated in a Monte Carlo study. In all cases, the data-generating process is such that unconfoundedness holds with the ‘real’ data. However, measurement error is then introduced. Specifically, three types of measurement error are considered: (i) errors in treatment assignment, (ii) errors in the outcome, and (iii) errors in the vector of covariates. Recommendations for researchers are provided.

Forecasting is a vital part of the planning process of most private and public organizations. A number of extant measures: Mean Absolute Deviation (MAD), Mean Square Error (MSE) and Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE), have been used to assist in judging the forecast accuracy, and concomitantly, the consequences of those forecasts. In this paper we introduce, evolve, and implement a practical and effective method for assessing the accuracy of forecasts, the Percent Forecast Error (PFE). We test and evaluate the PFE, and modified optimized PFE (MOPFE), against the MAD, MSE, and MAPE measures of forecast accuracy using three time series datasets.