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Article
Publication date: 5 December 2023

Valeriia Baklanova, Aleksei Kurkin and Tamara Teplova

The primary objective of this research is to provide a precise interpretation of the constructed machine learning model and produce definitive summaries that can evaluate the…

Abstract

Purpose

The primary objective of this research is to provide a precise interpretation of the constructed machine learning model and produce definitive summaries that can evaluate the influence of investor sentiment on the overall sales of non-fungible token (NFT) assets. To achieve this objective, the NFT hype index was constructed as well as several approaches of XAI were employed to interpret Black Box models and assess the magnitude and direction of the impact of the features used.

Design/methodology/approach

The research paper involved the construction of a sentiment index termed the NFT hype index, which aims to measure the influence of market actors within the NFT industry. This index was created by analyzing written content posted by 62 high-profile individuals and opinion leaders on the social media platform Twitter. The authors collected posts from the Twitter accounts that were afterward classified by tonality with a help of natural language processing model VADER. Then the machine learning methods and XAI approaches (feature importance, permutation importance and SHAP) were applied to explain the obtained results.

Findings

The built index was subjected to rigorous analysis using the gradient boosting regressor model and explainable AI techniques, which confirmed its significant explanatory power. Remarkably, the NFT hype index exhibited a higher degree of predictive accuracy compared to the well-known sentiment indices.

Practical implications

The NFT hype index, constructed from Twitter textual data, functions as an innovative, sentiment-based indicator for investment decision-making in the NFT market. It offers investors unique insights into the market sentiment that can be used alongside conventional financial analysis techniques to enhance risk management, portfolio optimization and overall investment outcomes within the rapidly evolving NFT ecosystem. Thus, the index plays a crucial role in facilitating well-informed, data-driven investment decisions and ensuring a competitive edge in the digital assets market.

Originality/value

The authors developed a novel index of investor interest for NFT assets (NFT hype index) based on text messages posted by market influencers and compared it to conventional sentiment indices in terms of their explanatory power. With the application of explainable AI, it was shown that sentiment indices may perform as significant predictors for NFT sales and that the NFT hype index works best among all sentiment indices considered.

Details

China Finance Review International, vol. ahead-of-print no. ahead-of-print
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 2044-1398

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 16 August 2022

Sakiru Adebola Solarin, Muhammed Sehid Gorus and Veli Yilanci

This study seeks to investigate role of the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic on clean energy stocks for the United States for the period 21 January 2020–16 August 2021.

Abstract

Purpose

This study seeks to investigate role of the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic on clean energy stocks for the United States for the period 21 January 2020–16 August 2021.

Design/methodology/approach

At the empirical stage, the Fourier-augmented vector autoregression approach has been used.

Findings

According to the empirical results, the response of the clean energy stocks to the feverish sentiment, lockdown stringency, oil volatility, dirty assets, and monetary policy dies out within a short period of time. In addition, the authors find that there is a unidirectional causality from the feverish sentiment index and the lockdown stringency index to the clean energy stock returns; and from the monetary policy to the clean energy stocks. At the same time, there is a bidirectional causality between the lockdown stringency index and the feverish sentiment index. The empirical findings can be helpful to both practitioners and policy-makers.

Originality/value

Among the COVID-19 variables used in this study is a new feverish sentiment index, which has been constructed using principal component analysis. The importance of the feverish sentiment index is that it allows us to examine the impact of the aggregate level of fear in the economy on clean energy stocks.

Details

International Journal of Managerial Finance, vol. ahead-of-print no. ahead-of-print
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1743-9132

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 15 January 2024

Qiang Bu and Jeffrey Forrest

The authors compare sentiment level with sentiment shock from different angles to determine which measure better captures the relationship between sentiment and stock returns.

Abstract

Purpose

The authors compare sentiment level with sentiment shock from different angles to determine which measure better captures the relationship between sentiment and stock returns.

Design/methodology/approach

This paper examines the relationship between investor sentiment and contemporaneous stock returns. It also proposes a model of systems science to explain the empirical findings.

Findings

The authors find that sentiment shock has a higher explanatory power on stock returns than sentiment itself, and sentiment shock beta exhibits a much higher statistical significance than sentiment beta. Compared with sentiment level, sentiment shock has a more robust linkage to the market factors and the sentiment shock is more responsive to stock returns.

Originality/value

This is the first study to compare sentiment level and sentiment shock. It concludes that sentiment shock is a better indicator of the relationship between investor sentiment and contemporary stock returns.

Details

Managerial Finance, vol. ahead-of-print no. ahead-of-print
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 0307-4358

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 3 April 2023

Muhammad Fayyaz Sheikh, Aamir Inam Bhutta and Tahira Parveen

Investor sentiment (optimism or pessimism) may influence investors to follow others (herding) while taking their investment decisions. Herding may result in bubbles and crashes in…

Abstract

Purpose

Investor sentiment (optimism or pessimism) may influence investors to follow others (herding) while taking their investment decisions. Herding may result in bubbles and crashes in the financial markets. The purpose of the study is to examine the presence of herding and the effects of investor sentiment on herding in China and Pakistan.

Design/methodology/approach

The investor sentiment is captured by five variables (trading volume, advance/decline ratio, weighted price-to-earnings ratio, relative strength index and interest rates) and a sentiment index developed through principal component analysis (PCA). The study uses daily prices of 2,184 firms from China and 568 firms from Pakistan for the period 2005 to 2018.

Findings

The study finds that herding prevails in China while reverse herding prevails in Pakistan. Interestingly, as investors become optimistic, herding in China and reverse herding in Pakistan decrease. This indicates that herding and reverse herding are greater during pessimistic periods. Further, the increase in herding in one market reduces herding in the other market. Moreover, optimistic sentiment in the Chinese market increases herding in the Pakistani market but the reverse is not true.

Practical implications

Considering the greater global financial liberalization, and better opportunities for emotion sharing, this study has important implications for regulators and investors. Market participants need to understand the prevalent irrational behavior before trading in the markets.

Originality/value

Since individual proxies may depict different picture of the relationship between sentiment and herding therefore the study also develops a sentiment index through PCA and incorporates this index in the analysis. Further, this study examines cross-country effects of herding and investor sentiment.

Details

International Journal of Emerging Markets, vol. ahead-of-print no. ahead-of-print
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1746-8809

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 14 July 2023

Yang Gao, Wanqi Zheng and Yaojun Wang

This study aims to explore the risk spillover effects among different sectors of the Chinese stock market after the outbreak of COVID-19 from both Internet sentiment and price…

133

Abstract

Purpose

This study aims to explore the risk spillover effects among different sectors of the Chinese stock market after the outbreak of COVID-19 from both Internet sentiment and price fluctuations.

Design/methodology/approach

The authors develop four indicators used for risk contagion analysis, including Internet investors and news sentiments constructed by the FinBERT model, together with realized and jump volatilities yielded by high-frequency data. The authors also apply the time-varying parameter vector autoregressive (TVP-VAR) model-based and the tail-based connectedness framework to investigate the interdependence of tail risk during catastrophic events.

Findings

The empirical analysis provides meaningful results related to the COVID-19 pandemic, stock market conditions and tail behavior. The results show that after the outbreak of COVID-19, the connectivity between risk spillovers in China's stock market has grown, indicating the increased instability of the connected system and enhanced connectivity in the tail. The changes in network structure during COVID-19 pandemic are not only reflected by the increased spillover connectivity but also by the closer relationships between some industries. The authors also found that major public events could significantly impact total connectedness. In addition, spillovers and network structures vary with market conditions and tend to exhibit a highly connected network structure during extreme market status.

Originality/value

The results confirm the connectivity between sentiments and volatilities spillovers in China's stock market, especially in the tails. The conclusion further expands the practical application and theoretical framework of behavioral finance and also lays a theoretical basis for investors to focus on the practical application of volatility prediction and risk management across stock sectors.

Details

China Finance Review International, vol. ahead-of-print no. ahead-of-print
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 2044-1398

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 14 February 2024

Dorra Messaoud and Anis Ben Amar

Based on the theoretical framework, this paper analyzes the sentiment-herding relationship in emerging stock markets (ESMs). First, it aims to examine the effect of investor…

Abstract

Purpose

Based on the theoretical framework, this paper analyzes the sentiment-herding relationship in emerging stock markets (ESMs). First, it aims to examine the effect of investor sentiment on herding. Second, it seeks the direction of causality between sentiment and herding time series.

Design/methodology/approach

The present study applies the Exponential Generalized Auto_Regressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity (EGARCH) model to capture the volatility clustering of herding on the financial market and to investigate the role of the investor sentiment on herding behaviour. Then the vector autoregression (VAR) estimation uses the Granger causality test to determine the direction of causality between the investor sentiment and herding. This study uses a sample consisting of stocks listed on the Shanghai Composite index (SSE) (348 stocks), the Jakarta composite index (JKSE) (118 stocks), the Mexico IPC index (14 stocks), the Russian Trading System index (RTS) (12 stocks), the Warsaw stock exchange General index (WGI) (106 stocks) and the FTSE/JSE Africa all-share index (76 stocks). The sample includes 5,020 daily observations from February 1, 2002, to March 31, 2021.

Findings

The research findings show that the sentiment has a significant negative impact on the herding behaviour pointing out that the higher the investor sentiment, the lower the herding. However, the results of the present study indicate that a higher investor sentiment conducts a higher herding behaviour during market downturns. Then the outcomes suggest that during the crisis period, the direction is one-way, from the investor sentiment to the herding behaviour.

Practical implications

The findings may have implications for universal policies of financial regulators in EMs. We have found evidence that the Emerging investor sentiment contributes to the investor herding behaviour. Therefore, the irrational investor herding behaviour can increase the stock market volatility, and in extreme cases, it may lead to bubbles and crashes. Market regulators could implement mechanisms that can supervise the investor sentiment and predict the investor herding behaviour, so they make policies helping stabilise stock markets.

Originality/value

The originality of this paper lies in investigate the sentiment-herding relationship during the Surprime crisis and the Covid-19 epidemic in the EMs.

Details

EuroMed Journal of Business, vol. ahead-of-print no. ahead-of-print
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1450-2194

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 11 April 2024

Everton Anger Cavalheiro, Kelmara Mendes Vieira and Pascal Silas Thue

This study probes the psychological interplay between investor sentiment and the returns of cryptocurrencies Bitcoin and Ethereum. Employing the Granger causality test, the…

Abstract

Purpose

This study probes the psychological interplay between investor sentiment and the returns of cryptocurrencies Bitcoin and Ethereum. Employing the Granger causality test, the authors aim to gauge how extensively the Fear and Greed Index (FGI) can predict cryptocurrency return movements, exploring the intricate bond between investor emotions and market behavior.

Design/methodology/approach

The authors used the Granger causality test to achieve research objectives. Going beyond conventional linear analysis, the authors applied Smooth Quantile Regression, scrutinizing weekly data from July 2022 to June 2023 for Bitcoin and Ethereum. The study focus was to determine if the FGI, an indicator of investor sentiment, predicts shifts in cryptocurrency returns.

Findings

The study findings underscore the profound psychological sway within cryptocurrency markets. The FGI notably predicts the returns of Bitcoin and Ethereum, underscoring the lasting connection between investor emotions and market behavior. An intriguing feedback loop between the FGI and cryptocurrency returns was identified, accentuating emotions' persistent role in shaping market dynamics. While associations between sentiment and returns were observed at specific lag periods, the nonlinear Granger causality test didn't statistically support nonlinear causality. This suggests linear interactions predominantly govern variable relationships. Cointegration tests highlighted a stable, enduring link between the returns of Bitcoin, Ethereum and the FGI over the long term.

Practical implications

Despite valuable insights, it's crucial to acknowledge our nonlinear analysis's sensitivity to methodological choices. Specifics of time series data and the chosen time frame may have influenced outcomes. Additionally, direct exploration of macroeconomic and geopolitical factors was absent, signaling opportunities for future research.

Originality/value

This study enriches theoretical understanding by illuminating causal dynamics between investor sentiment and cryptocurrency returns. Its significance lies in spotlighting the pivotal role of investor sentiment in shaping cryptocurrency market behavior. It emphasizes the importance of considering this factor when navigating investment decisions in a highly volatile, dynamic market environment.

Details

Review of Behavioral Finance, vol. ahead-of-print no. ahead-of-print
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1940-5979

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 6 November 2023

Fatma Hariz, Taicir Mezghani and Mouna Boujelbène Abbes

This paper aims to analyze the dependence structure between the Green Sukuk Spread in Malaysia and uncertainty factors from January 1, 2017, to May 23, 2023, covering two main…

Abstract

Purpose

This paper aims to analyze the dependence structure between the Green Sukuk Spread in Malaysia and uncertainty factors from January 1, 2017, to May 23, 2023, covering two main periods: the pre-COVID-19 and the COVID-19 periods.

Design/methodology/approach

This study contributes to the current literature by explicitly modeling nonlinear dependencies using the Regular vine copula approach to capture asymmetric characteristics of the tail dependence distribution. This study used the Archimedean copula models: Student’s-t, Gumbel, Gaussian, Clayton, Frank and Joe, which exhibit different tail dependence structures.

Findings

The empirical results suggest that Green Sukuk and various uncertainty variables have the strongest co-dependency before and during the COVID-19 crisis. Due to external uncertainties (COVID-19), the results reveal that global factors, such as the Infect-EMV-index and the higher financial stress index, significantly affect the spread of Green Sukuk. Interestingly, in times of COVID-19, its dependence on Green Sukuk and the news sentiment seems to be a symmetric tail dependence with a Student’s-t copula. This result is relevant for hedging strategies, as investors can enhance the performance of their portfolio during the COVID-19 crash period.

Originality/value

This study contributes to a better understanding of the dependency structure between Green Sukuk and uncertainty factors. It is relevant for market participants seeking to improve their risk management for Green Sukuk.

Details

Journal of Islamic Accounting and Business Research, vol. ahead-of-print no. ahead-of-print
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1759-0817

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 19 February 2024

Benjamin Kwakye and Tze-Haw Chan

Market sentiment has shown to influence housing prices in the global north, but in emerging economies, the nexus is rare to chance on in the current state of science for policy…

Abstract

Purpose

Market sentiment has shown to influence housing prices in the global north, but in emerging economies, the nexus is rare to chance on in the current state of science for policy direction. More importantly in the recent decade where policymakers are yet to conclude on the myriad of factors confronting the housing market in sub-Saharan Africa inhibiting affordability. This paper therefore examines the impact of market sentiment on house prices in South Africa.

Design/methodology/approach

The study used the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) approach with quarterly data spanning from 2005Q1 to 2020Q4.

Findings

In all, it was established that market sentiment plays a minimal role in the property market in South Africa. But there was enough evidence of cointegration from the bound test between sentiment and house prices. Nevertheless, the lag values of sentiment pointed to a rise in house prices. Exchange rate volatilities and inflation had a statistically significant effect on prices in both the long and short term, respectively.

Research limitations/implications

Policymakers could still monitor market sentiment in the housing market due to the strong chemistry between house prices and sentiment, as evidenced from the bound test, but focus on economic fundamentals as the main policy tool for house price reduction.

Originality/value

The findings and the creation of the sentiment index make an invaluable contribution to the paper and add to the paucity of literature on the study of market sentiment in the housing market.

Details

International Journal of Housing Markets and Analysis, vol. ahead-of-print no. ahead-of-print
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1753-8270

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 27 March 2024

Jing Jiang

This study argues that online user comments on social media platforms provide feedback and evaluation functions. These functions can provide services for the relevant departments…

Abstract

Purpose

This study argues that online user comments on social media platforms provide feedback and evaluation functions. These functions can provide services for the relevant departments of organizations or institutions to formulate corresponding public opinion response strategies.

Design/methodology/approach

This study considers Chinese universities’ public opinion events on the Weibo platform as the research object. It collects online comments on Chinese universities’ network public opinion governance strategy texts on Weibo, constructs the sentiment index based on sentiment analysis and evaluates the effectiveness of the network public opinion governance strategy adopted by university officials.

Findings

This study found the following: First, a complete information release process can effectively improve the effect of public opinion governance strategies. Second, the effect of network public opinion governance strategies was significantly influenced by the type of public opinion event. Finally, the effect of public opinion governance strategies is closely related to the severity of punishment for the subjects involved.

Research limitations/implications

The theoretical contribution of this study lies in the application of image repair theory and strategies in the field of network public opinion governance, which further broadens the scope of the application of image repair theory and strategies.

Originality/value

This study expands online user comment research to network public opinion governance and provides a quantitative method for evaluating the effect of governance strategies.

Peer review

The peer review history for this article is available at: https://publons.com/publon/10.1108/OIR-05-2022-0269

Details

Online Information Review, vol. ahead-of-print no. ahead-of-print
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1468-4527

Keywords

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