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In this paper we develop a new semi-parametric model for conditional correlations, which combines parametric univariate Generalized Auto Regressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity specifications for the individual conditional volatilities with nonparametric kernel regression for the conditional correlations. This approach not only avoids the proliferation of parameters as the number of assets becomes large, which typically happens in conventional multivariate conditional volatility models, but also the rigid structure imposed by more parsimonious models, such as the dynamic conditional correlation model. An empirical application to the 30 Dow Jones stocks demonstrates that the model is able to capture interesting asymmetries in correlations and that it is competitive with standard parametric models in terms of constructing minimum variance portfolios and minimum tracking error portfolios.

This chapter estimates the negative effect of smoking on earnings in the context of a developing country. Using data from the 2005 Albania Living Standards Measurement Survey, models are estimated by parametric and semi-parametric methods to account for the effect of observable and unobservable characteristics that could affect individual smoking decisions and earnings. Information on the smoking behaviour of parents is used to address the endogeneity of the smoking decision. The results show that, after controlling for observed individual characteristics and parental education and taking into account unobserved heterogeneity in personal characteristics, smoking is found to have a substantial negative impact on earnings. The main results are robust to a range of alternative specifications. On average, smokers’ earnings are 19–23 percent lower than the earnings of similar non-smokers.

This is a companion paper to our previous study in Cao and Wei (2005) on stock market temperature anomaly for eight international stock markets. The temperature anomaly is characterized by a negative relationship between stock market returns and temperature. This line of work relies on the impact of environmental variables, such as temperature, on mood and behavior changes. In this paper, we expand the sample in Cao and Wei (2005) to include 19 additional financial markets. Our evidence confirms the identified negative relationship for the expanded sample. More importantly, our nonparametric tests, as opposite to the parametric or semi-parametric approaches used by previous related studies, demonstrate that this negative relationship is robust to distributional assumptions. Based on the sub-sample analysis, we find that this negative relationship is stable over time. Furthermore, we consider temperature deviation and demonstrate that this negative relationship is not just a level effect.

In this chapter, the authors ask two questions: (i) Is the conduct of monetary policy stable across time and similar across major economies? and (ii) Do policy decisions of major central banks have international spillover effects? To address these questions, the authors build on recent semi-parametric advances in time-varying parameter models that allow us to increase the vector autoregressive () dimension and to jointly model three advanced economies (USA, UK and the Euro Area). The main reduced-form finding of this chapter is an increased connectedness between and within countries during the recent financial crisis. In order to study policy spillovers, we jointly identify three economy-specific monetary policy shocks using a combination of sign and magnitude restrictions. The authors find that monetary policy shocks were larger in magnitude and more persistent in the early 1980s than in subsequent periods. The authors also uncover positive spillover effects of policy between countries in the 1980s and diminished, and sometimes negative ‘beggar-thy-neighbour’ effects in the second half of the sample. Moreover, during the 1980s, the authors find evidence for policy coordination between the Federal Reserve, the Bank of England and the European Central Bank.

What would have been the hypothetical effect of monetary policy shocks had a country never joined the euro area, in cases where we know that the country in question actually did join the euro area? It is one thing to investigate the impact of joining a monetary union, but quite another to examine two things at once: joining the union and experiencing actual monetary policy shocks. The authors propose a methodology that combines synthetic control ideas with the impulse response functions to uncover dynamic response paths for treated and untreated units, controlling for common unobserved factors. Focusing on the largest euro area countries, Germany, France, and Italy, the authors find that an unexpected rise in interest rates depresses inflation and significantly appreciates exchange rate, whereas gross domestic product (GDP) fluctuations are less successfully controlled when a country belongs to the monetary union than would have been the case under the independent monetary policy. Importantly, Italy turns out to be the overall beneficiary, since all three channels – price, GDP, and exchange rate – deliver the desired results. The authors also find that stabilizing an economy within a union requires somewhat smaller policy changes than attempting to stabilize it individually, and therefore provides more policy space.

The 2001 Russian tax reform reduced average tax rates for the personal income tax and the payroll or social tax. It also made the tax structure more regressive. Because individuals in the lower income bracket were for the most part not affected, it is possible to estimate the effects of the reform using a differences-in-differences approach. I study the effect of the reform on informal employment. Informality is defined using information on employment registration and self-employment. Applying parametric and semi-parametric techniques, I find evidence that the tax reform led to a significant reduction in the fraction of informal employees. Among the different forms of informality I study, the reform seems to have had the strongest effect on the prevalence of informal irregular activities. I also document stronger effects on individuals who benefited from the largest reductions in tax rates. The strong response to the tax reform is consistent with the emerging consensus in the literature on taxation that changes to the tax system lead to significant behavioral responses, although not necessarily in the form of a reduced labor supply.

This chapter examines the impact of banking competition, bank regulation, and the global financial crisis (GFC) of 2008–2009 on banks’ productivity changes. For the empirical analysis, I apply a semi-parametric two-step approach of Malmquist index estimates and bootstrap regression to a cross-country panel data of 8,451 commercial banks from 82 countries over the period 2004–2012. Empirical results show that (1) banking competition and capital regulation significantly enhance bank productivity, (2) a tighter bank supervision have a positive impact on bank productivity, and (3) bank productivity decreases during the GFC, but starts to increase as the GFC recovers. I also present consistent evidence that commercial banks in countries with better national governance have higher productivity growth before, during and after the GFC.