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A time-varying grey Fourier model (TVGFM(1,1,N)) is proposed for the simulation of variable amplitude seasonal fluctuation time series, as the performance of traditional grey models can't catch the time-varying trend well.

The proposed model couples Fourier series and linear time-varying terms as the grey action, to describe the characteristics of variable amplitude and seasonality. The truncated Fourier order N is preselected from the alternative order set by Nyquist-Shannon sampling theorem and the principle of simplicity, then the optimal Fourier order is determined by hold-out method to improve the robustness of the proposed model. Initial value correction and the multiple transformation are also studied to improve the precision.

The new model has a broader applicability range as a result of the new grey action, attaining higher fitting and forecasting accuracy. The numerical experiment of a generated monthly time series indicates the proposed model can accurately fit the variable amplitude seasonal sequence, in which the mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) is only 0.01%, and the complex simulations based on Monte-Carlo method testify the validity of the proposed model. The results of monthly electricity consumption in China's primary industry, demonstrate the proposed model catches the time-varying trend and has good performances, where MAPE_F and MAPE_T are below 5%. Moreover, the proposed TVGFM(1,1,N) model is superior to the benchmark models, grey polynomial model (GMP(1,1,N)), grey Fourier model (GFM(1,1,N)), seasonal grey model (SGM(1,1)), seasonal ARIMA model seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average model (SARIMA) and support vector regression (SVR).

The parameter estimates and forecasting of the new proposed TVGFM are studied, and the good fitting and forecasting accuracy of time-varying amplitude seasonal fluctuation series are testified by numerical simulations and a case study.

Forecasting outpatient volume during a significant security crisis can provide reasonable decision-making references for hospital managers to prevent sudden outbreaks and dispatch medical resources on time. Based on the background of standard hospital operation and Coronavirus disease (COVID-19) periods, this paper constructs a hybrid grey model to forecast the outpatient volume to provide foresight decision support for hospital decision-makers.

This paper proposes an improved hybrid grey model for two stages. In the non-COVID-19 stage, the Aquila Optimizer (AO) is selected to optimize the modeling parameters. Fourier correction is applied to revise the stochastic disturbance. In the COVID-19 stage, this model adds the COVID-19 impact factor to improve the grey model forecasting results based on the dummy variables. The cycle of the dummy variables modifies the COVID-19 factor.

This paper tests the hybrid grey model on a large Chinese hospital in Jiangsu. The fitting MAPE is 2.48%, and the RMSE is 16463.69 in the training group. The test MAPE is 1.91%, and the RMSE is 9354.93 in the test group. The results of both groups are better than those of the comparative models.

The two-stage hybrid grey model can solve traditional hospitals' seasonal outpatient volume forecasting and provide future policy formulation references for sudden large-scale epidemics.

Waiting time, as an important predictor of queue abandonment and patient satisfaction, is important for resource utilization and patient experience management. Medical institutions have given top priority to reforming the appointment system for many years; however, whether the increased information transparency brought about by the appointment scheduling mechanism could improve patient waiting time is not well understood. In this study, the authors examine the effects of information transparency in reducing patient waiting time from an uncertainty perspective.

Leveraging a quasi-natural experiment in a tertiary academic hospital, the authors analyze over one million observational patient visit records and design the propensity score matching plus the difference in difference (PSM-DID) model and hierarchical linear modeling (HLM) to address this issue.

The authors confirm that, on average, improved information transparency significantly reduces the waiting time for patients by approximately 6.43 min, a 4.90% reduction. The authors identify three types of uncertainties (resource, process and outcome uncertainty) in the patient visit process that affect patients' waiting time. Moreover, information transparency moderates the relationship between three sources of uncertainties and waiting time.

The authors’ work not only provides important theoretical explanations for the patient-level factors of in-clinic waiting time and the reasons for information technology (IT)-enabled appointment scheduling by time slot (ITASS) to shorten patient waiting time and improve patient experience but also provides potential solutions for further exploration of measures to reduce patient waiting time.

Short-term rentals (STRs) (like Airbnb) are reshaping social behaviour, notably in gastronomy, altering how people dine while travelling. This study delves into revenue management, examining the impact of seasonality and dining options near guests’ Airbnb. Machine Learning analysis of Airbnb data suggests owners enhance revenue strategies by adjusting prices seasonally, taking nearby food amenities into account.

This study analysed 220 Airbnb establishments from Madrid, Spain, using consistent monthly price data from Seetransparent and environment variables from MapInfo GIS. The Machine Learning algorithm calculated average prices, determined seasonal prices, applied factor analysis to categorise months and used cluster analysis to identify tourism-dwelling typologies with similar seasonal behaviour, considering nearby supermarkets/restaurants by factors such as proximity and availability of food options.

The findings reveal seasonal variations in three groups, using Machine Learning to improve revenue management: Group 1 has strong autumn-winter patterns and fewer restaurants; Group 2 shows higher spring seasonality, likely catering to tourists, and has more restaurants, while Group 3 has year-round stability, fewer supermarkets and active shops, potentially affecting local restaurant dynamics. Food establishments in these groups may need to adapt their strategies accordingly to capitalise on these seasonal trends.

Current literature lacks information on how seasonality, rental housing and proximity to amenities are interconnected. The originality of this study is to fill this gap by enhancing the STR price predictive model through a Machine Learning study. By examining seasonal trends, rental housing dynamics, and the proximity of supermarkets and restaurants to STR properties, the research enhances our understanding and predictions of STR price fluctuations, particularly in relation to the availability and demand for food options.

This study aims to explore the use of time series analyses to examine changes in travelers’ preferences in accommodation features by disentangling seasonal, trend and the COVID-19 pandemic’s once-off disruptive effects.

Longitudinal data are retrieved by online traveler reviews (n = 519,200) from the Canary Islands, Spain, over a period of seven years (2015 to 2022). A time series analysis decomposes the seasonal, trend and disruptive effects of six prominent accommodation features (view, terrace, pool, shop, location and room).

Single accommodation features reveal different seasonal patterns. Trend analyses indicate long-term trend effects and short-term disruption effects caused by Covid-19. In contrast, no long-term effect of the pandemic was found.

The findings stress the need to address seasonality at the single accommodation feature level. Beyond targeting specific features at different guest groups, new approaches could allow dynamic price optimization. Real-time insight can be used for the targeted marketing of platform providers and accommodation owners.

A novel application of a time series perspective reveals trends and seasonal changes in travelers’ accommodation feature preferences. The findings help better address travelers’ needs in P2P offerings.

Accurate prediction of seasonal power consumption trends with impact disturbances provides a scientific basis for the flexible balance of the long timescale power system. Consequently, it fosters reasonable scheduling plans, ensuring the safety of the system and improving the economic dispatching efficiency of the power system.

First, a new seasonal grey buffer operator in the longitudinal and transverse dimensional perspectives is designed. Then, a new seasonal grey modeling approach that integrates the new operator, full real domain fractional order accumulation generation technique, grey prediction modeling tool and fruit fly optimization algorithm is proposed. Moreover, the rationality, scientificity and superiority of the new approach are verified by designing 24 seasonal electricity consumption forecasting approaches, incorporating case study and amalgamating qualitative and quantitative research.

Compared with other comparative models, the new approach has superior mean absolute percentage error and mean absolute error. Furthermore, the research results show that the new method provides a scientific and effective mathematical method for solving the seasonal trend power consumption forecasting modeling with impact disturbance.

Considering the development trend of longitudinal and transverse dimensions of seasonal data with impact disturbance and the differences in each stage, a new grey buffer operator is constructed, and a new seasonal grey modeling approach with multi-method fusion is proposed to solve the seasonal power consumption forecasting problem.

The highlights of the paper are as follows:

1. A new seasonal grey buffer operator is constructed.

2. The impact of shock perturbations on seasonal data trends is effectively mitigated.

3. A novel seasonal grey forecasting approach with multi-method fusion is proposed.

4. Seasonal electricity consumption is successfully predicted by the novel approach.

5. The way to adjust China's power system flexibility in the future is analyzed.

A new seasonal grey buffer operator is constructed.

The impact of shock perturbations on seasonal data trends is effectively mitigated.

A novel seasonal grey forecasting approach with multi-method fusion is proposed.

Seasonal electricity consumption is successfully predicted by the novel approach.

The way to adjust China's power system flexibility in the future is analyzed.

This paper intends to construct a new adaptive grey seasonal model (AGSM) to promote the application of the grey forecasting model in quarterly GDP.

Firstly, this paper constructs a new accumulation operation that embodies the new information priority by using a hyperparameter. Then, a new AGSM is constructed by using a new grey action quantity, nonlinear Bernoulli operator, discretization operation, moving average trend elimination method and the proposed new accumulation operation. Subsequently, the marine predators algorithm is used to quickly obtain the hyperparameters used to build the AGSM. Finally, comparative analysis experiments and ablation experiments based on China's quarterly GDP confirm the validity of the proposed model.

AGSM can be degraded to some classical grey prediction models by replacing its own structural parameters. The proposed accumulation operation satisfies the new information priority rule. In the comparative analysis experiments, AGSM shows better prediction performance than other competitive algorithms, and the proposed accumulation operation is also better than the existing accumulation operations. Ablation experiments show that each component in the AGSM is effective in enhancing the predictive performance of the model.

A new AGSM with new information priority accumulation operation is proposed.

The purpose of this paper is to develop a conceptual framework that examines the impacts of changing seasons on tourism.

The paper presents a conceptual process model of the impact of seasons on all aspects of in-destination tourist behaviour. The model is developed from the literature and is then tested using Cairns, Australia as a case study.

Seasons influence the actual and perceived range of products/experiences available, which dictate the pull features of a destination, that in turn, influence who comes and why they come. Combined the activity sets and visitor profile define in-destination behaviour and, ultimately, satisfaction.

The study fills a needed research gap in two ways. Firstly, it explains conceptually and then tests empirically how changes in seasons affect the delivery of tourism products and experiences. Secondly, it adds significantly to our understanding of the factors that influence in-destination behaviour.

Managerial implications for destination management organisations are identified.

This paper presents a new conceptual process model for a previously unexamined issue.

本文提出了一个季节影响目的地游客行为的过程的理论模型。该模型基于文献开发而成, 然后以澳大利亚凯恩斯作为案例进行测试。

本文的目的是开发一个研究季节变化影响旅游的理论框架。

研究发现季节会影响实际和感知的产品或体验的范围, 从而决定一个目的地的吸引力特征。他们反过来可以影响谁来旅游以及他们来旅游的原因。 结合活动和旅游者画像来定义其目的地行为。

这项研究从两个方面填补了理论空白。 首先, 它从概念上解释, 然后实证检验了季节的变化如何影响旅游产品和体验的供应。 其次, 它极大地增强了我们对影响目的地行为的因素的理解。

本文指出了对目的地管理的实践意义。

本文针对先前未经考察的问题提出了一种新的理论过程模型。

El artículo presenta un modelo de proceso conceptual del impacto de las estaciones en todos los aspectos del comportamiento en en destino turístico. El modelo se desarrolla a partir de la literatura y luego se pone a prueba usando Cairns, Australia como estudio de caso.

El propósito de este artículo es desarrollar un marco conceptual que examine los impactos de los cambios de estación en el turismo.

Las estaciones influyen en la gama, real y percibida, de productos/experiencias disponibles que condicionan las características de atracción de un destino. Las estaciones, a su vez, influyen en quién viene y por qué viene. Los conjuntos de actividades combinadas y el perfil del visitante definen el comportamiento en el destino.

El estudio llena un vacío de investigación necesario de dos maneras. Primero, explica conceptualmente y luego demuestra empíricamente cómo los cambios en las estaciones afectan la oferta de productos y experiencias turísticas. En segundo lugar, contribuye significativamente a la comprensión de los factores que influyen en el comportamiento en el destino.

Se identifican las implicaciones de gestión para las organizaciones de gestión de destinos.

Este artículo presenta un nuevo modelo de proceso conceptual para un tema no examinado previamente.

This study aims to analyse the effect of competition on retail fuel prices in a small European Union (EU) country with high market concentration.

The researchers use a panel data set to estimate a fuel price equation that includes supply and demand factors as well as time-fixed effects.

The study finds that more competitors in the local market decrease prices, whereas the high market share of oligopoly brands does not condition this effect. Additionally, independent brands set lower prices than wholesalers, and gas stations located near the borders of almost all neighbouring countries are associated with higher prices.

The study suggests that Slovenia’s retail fuel market maintains competitive pricing despite high oligopolistic shares because of historical regulatory influences that shaped firm behaviour and pricing strategies, along with geographical and economic factors such as Slovenia’s role as a transit country. External competitive pressures from neighbouring countries and high levels of traffic, combined with the remnants of regulatory structures, help prevent market abuses and keep fuel prices lower than in other EU countries.

It also indicates that policy should encourage fiercer competition in the local market by increasing the density of gas stations, especially from independent brands.

These findings may be associated with specific country characteristics. This paper introduces unique findings that shed light on the impact of a small market on competition, with a particular focus on highlighting the effect of oligopolistic brands.

After completion of the case study, the participants would be able to understand the challenges in building a sustainable homestay tourism business; develop a positioning statement for La Pinekonez which builds a unique competitive advantage; and outline elements of the business strategy to profitably sustain and grow a sustainable tourism homestay in terms of service offering, pricing, marketing and operations.

La Pinekonez Homestay, located in the beautiful region of Himachal Pradesh, India, is the subject of this case study, which explores both its successes and its difficulties. In August 2022, Arvind, the dedicated sole proprietor of La Pinekonez, grappled with multifaceted challenges, the first being the foray of established hotel chains into the homestay business. As the protagonist, was is in dilemma of preserving La Pinekonez’s unique identity amidst corporate competitors, particularly with regards to differentiating from the expanding hotel chains. The clash between customer expectations for hotel-like amenities and the homestay’s commitment to sustainable tourism presented a crucial challenge. Negative reviews questioning the authenticity of La Pinekonez’s green initiatives heightened the complexity. Adding to Arvind’s predicament were the seasonal fluctuations in tourist inflow and his aspiration to embrace immersive tourism trends. This case study facilitates exploration of strategic positioning, sustainability management and marketing strategies in the dynamic and competitive hospitality industry. It also offers insights into the complexities of balancing differentiation, customer satisfaction and sustainability while navigating the evolving landscape of tourism trends.

This case study is suitable for students of tourism and hospitality management at postgraduate level. The case study can be discussed once the basic concepts of hospitality management and service dimensions are covered.

Teaching notes are available for educators only.

CCS 12: Tourism and hospitality.