A new adaptive grey seasonal model for time series forecasting tasks
Grey Systems: Theory and Application
ISSN: 2043-9377
Article publication date: 25 December 2023
Issue publication date: 8 March 2024
Abstract
Purpose
This paper intends to construct a new adaptive grey seasonal model (AGSM) to promote the application of the grey forecasting model in quarterly GDP.
Design/methodology/approach
Firstly, this paper constructs a new accumulation operation that embodies the new information priority by using a hyperparameter. Then, a new AGSM is constructed by using a new grey action quantity, nonlinear Bernoulli operator, discretization operation, moving average trend elimination method and the proposed new accumulation operation. Subsequently, the marine predators algorithm is used to quickly obtain the hyperparameters used to build the AGSM. Finally, comparative analysis experiments and ablation experiments based on China's quarterly GDP confirm the validity of the proposed model.
Findings
AGSM can be degraded to some classical grey prediction models by replacing its own structural parameters. The proposed accumulation operation satisfies the new information priority rule. In the comparative analysis experiments, AGSM shows better prediction performance than other competitive algorithms, and the proposed accumulation operation is also better than the existing accumulation operations. Ablation experiments show that each component in the AGSM is effective in enhancing the predictive performance of the model.
Originality/value
A new AGSM with new information priority accumulation operation is proposed.
Keywords
Acknowledgements
This research was supported by the “14th Five-Year Plan” project of Hunan provincial education and science (XJK23BCJ027) and Scientific Research Project of Hunan Provincial Department of Education (23B0685).
Citation
Wang, R., Xu, Y. and Yang, Q. (2024), "A new adaptive grey seasonal model for time series forecasting tasks", Grey Systems: Theory and Application, Vol. 14 No. 2, pp. 360-373. https://doi.org/10.1108/GS-07-2023-0055
Publisher
:Emerald Publishing Limited
Copyright © 2023, Emerald Publishing Limited