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Book part
Publication date: 4 April 2024

Thomas C. Chiang

Using a GED-GARCH model to estimate monthly data from January 1990 to February 2022, we test whether gold acts as a hedge or safe haven asset in 10 countries. With a downturn of…

Abstract

Using a GED-GARCH model to estimate monthly data from January 1990 to February 2022, we test whether gold acts as a hedge or safe haven asset in 10 countries. With a downturn of the stock market, gold can be viewed as a hedge and safe haven asset in the G7 countries. In the case of inflation, gold acts as a hedge and safe haven asset in the United States, United Kingdom, Canada, China, and Indonesia. For currency depreciation, oil price shock, economic policy uncertainty, and US volatility spillover, evidence finds that gold acts as a hedge and safe haven for all countries.

Details

Advances in Pacific Basin Business, Economics and Finance
Type: Book
ISBN: 978-1-83753-865-2

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Article
Publication date: 5 December 2023

Monika Chopra, Chhavi Mehta, Prerna Lal and Aman Srivastava

The purpose of this research is to primarily understand how crypto traders can use the Bitcoin as a hedge or safe haven asset to reduce their losses from crypto trading. The study…

Abstract

Purpose

The purpose of this research is to primarily understand how crypto traders can use the Bitcoin as a hedge or safe haven asset to reduce their losses from crypto trading. The study also aims to provide insights to crypto investors (portfolio managers) who wish to maintain a crypto portfolio for the medium term and can use the Bitcoin to minimize their losses. The findings of this research can also be used by policymakers and regulators for accommodating the Bitcoin as a medium of exchange, considering its safe haven nature.

Design/methodology/approach

This study applies the cross-quantilogram (CQ) approach introduced by Han et al. (2016) to examine the safe-haven property of the Bitcoin against the other selected crypto assets. This method is robust for estimating bivariate volatility spillover between two markets given unusual distributions and extreme observations. The CQ method is capable of calculating the magnitude of the shock from one market to another under different quantiles. Additionally, this method is suitable for fat-tailed distributions. Finally, the method allows anticipating long lags to evaluate the strength of the relationship between two variables in terms of durations and directions simultaneously.

Findings

The Bitcoin acts as a weak safe haven asset for a majority of new crypto assets for the entire study period. These results hold even during greed and fear sentiments in the crypto market. The Bitcoin has the ability to protect crypto assets from sharp downturns in the crypto market and hence gives crypto traders some respite when trading in a highly volatile asset class.

Originality/value

This study is the first attempt to show how the Bitcoin can act as a true matriarch/patriarch for crypto assets and protect them during market turmoil. This study presents a clear and concise representation of this relationship via heatmaps constructed from CQ analysis, depicting the quantile dependence association between the Bitcoin and other crypto assets. The uniqueness of this study also lies in the fact that it assesses the protective properties of the Bitcoin not only for the entire sample period but also specifically during periods of greed and fear in the crypto market.

Details

China Finance Review International, vol. ahead-of-print no. ahead-of-print
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 2044-1398

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Article
Publication date: 17 February 2022

Shoaib Ali, Imran Yousaf and Zaghum Umar

This study aims to examine the hedge, diversifier and safe-haven properties of bonds against infectious disease-related equity market volatility (IDEMV), like COVID-19.

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Abstract

Purpose

This study aims to examine the hedge, diversifier and safe-haven properties of bonds against infectious disease-related equity market volatility (IDEMV), like COVID-19.

Design/methodology/approach

The authors apply wavelet coherence methodology on the daily data of IDEMV and bond market (US, UK, Japan, Switzerland, Canada, Australia, Sweden, China and Europe) indices from 1 January 2000 to 14 February 2021.

Findings

The results show no significant co-movement between these bond indices and IDEMV, thus confirming that they serve as a hedge against IDEMV. However, during the turbulent period like COVID-19, the authors find that the US, UK, Japan, Switzerland, Canada, Australia, Sweden, China and European bond markets act as safe-haven against IDEMV, whereas the UK, US, Japan and Canadian bond markets demonstrate an in-phase and positive co-movement with IDEMV during COVID-19, suggesting their role as a diversifier.

Research limitations/implications

The study findings are important for investors and portfolio managers regarding risk management, portfolio diversification and investment strategies.

Originality/value

The authors contribute to the fast growing body of work on the financial impacts of COVID-19 as well as to ongoing consideration of whether a bond is a safe-haven investment.

Details

Review of Behavioral Finance, vol. 15 no. 4
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1940-5979

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Article
Publication date: 14 June 2023

Aqila Rafiuddin, Jesus Cuauhtemoc Tellez Gaytan, Rajesh Mohnot and Arindam Banerjee

The aim of this research is to explore multiscale hedging strategies among cryptocurrencies, commodities, and GCC stocks. Particularly, this is done by evaluating the…

Abstract

Purpose

The aim of this research is to explore multiscale hedging strategies among cryptocurrencies, commodities, and GCC stocks. Particularly, this is done by evaluating the connectedness among these asset classes covering a period with COVID-19 implications. Using the wavelet approach, the present study aims to recommend whether there exist different time horizon-based hedging abilities across the asset classes.

Design/methodology/approach

The approach used in this study is a multiscale decomposition of time series based on wavelets of daily prices of 13 asset classes. Since the wavelet analysis allows to decompose the time series into its frequency components at different time scales by a filtering process the study covered 1-day, 8-day, and 64-day time horizons to examine the hedging properties across those asset classes.

Findings

The results of this study show that hedging effectiveness differs among stock markets over time. In some cases, cryptocurrencies may keep their hedging properties across time while in others they switch from safe haven to hedge devices. In almost all cases, the three main cryptocurrencies showed diversifying properties as was observed by the multiscale correlation and hedge ratio estimations. In a competing sense, gold showed safe haven properties across time than cryptocurrencies except at an 8-day time scale where hedge ratios were low, positive and statistically different from zero that could be interpreted as a good hedge device in the medium term.

Research limitations/implications

Though this research has considered a set of thirteen asset classes, it was limited to a period in which most cryptocurrencies started trading for the first time which reduces the number of observations compared to Bitcoin prices and stable coins such as Ethereum, Ripple, and Bitcoin Cash. Also, the research was focused on the GCC stock markets which may have different results as compared to other regional markets of Asia or Latin America. A comparative analysis in future could be another area of research in future.

Practical implications

This study has some significant policy implications. The cryptocurrency market is severely affected by demand and risk shocks to crude oil prices during the COVID-19 period. From the investor's point of view, diversification benefits can be obtained by combining cryptocurrencies along with oil-related products during episodes of financial turmoil and COVID-19 pandemic. The GCC region is constantly endeavoring to adopt more scientific tools and mechanisms of investment, and therefore, this study's results will provide some useful directions to the government, policymakers, financial institutions, and investors.

Originality/value

The current study covers a big bunch of 13 assets spanning across financial and real assets. This is based on literature gap and hence, will be a significant addition to the existing literature. Moreover, the GCC region is emerging as a global investment hub and this study will provide investors dynamic hedging strategies across these asset classes.

Details

The Journal of Risk Finance, vol. 24 no. 4
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1526-5943

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Article
Publication date: 7 December 2022

Sutap Kumar Ghosh, Md. Naiem Hossain and Hosneara Khatun

This study analyses the impact of economic and trade policy uncertainty on US and Chinese stock markets. Also, this study examines the hedge and safe-haven properties of US and…

Abstract

Purpose

This study analyses the impact of economic and trade policy uncertainty on US and Chinese stock markets. Also, this study examines the hedge and safe-haven properties of US and China stocks against both US and Chinese economic and trade policy uncertainty.

Design/methodology/approach

To achieve the desired goals, the authors employ Dynamic Conditional Correlation through Glosten et al. (1993) model based on the Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity (DCC-GJR-GARCH (1, 1)) and Quantile cross-spectral (QS) models. The study uses monthly observations spanning from March 2010 to June 2022.

Findings

This study evidence that the economic and trade policy uncertainty between USA and China is extremely sensitive and has high volatility clustering effects on DJChina88 and DJUS, respectively. Conversely, against the Chinese economic and trade policy uncertainty, the US stock market indexes show both hedging properties across the period and safe-haven during COVID-19 and Russia–Ukraine crises. In contrast, among the Chinese stock markets, only DJShenzhen and DJShanghai stock indices might provide strong hedging and safe-haven properties against the US economic and trade policy uncertainties; however, DJShenzhen (DJChina88) stock shows weak hedge and safe-haven properties (hedging benefits) against Chinese trade policy uncertainty (CTPU) (Chinese economic policy uncertainty [CEPU]).

Practical implications

The findings have significant implications for investors, portfolio managers and regulators in hedging and making proper decisions under uncertain circumstances.

Originality/value

The study extends the literature on stock market performance to cover the economic and trade policy uncertainty by providing novel evidence during the recent COVID-19 and Russia–Ukraine invasion.

Details

China Finance Review International, vol. 13 no. 3
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 2044-1398

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Article
Publication date: 19 March 2024

Yousra Trichilli, Hana Kharrat and Mouna Boujelbène Abbes

This paper assesses the co-movement between Pax gold and six fiat currencies. It also investigates the optimal time-varying hedge ratios in order to examine the properties of Pax…

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Abstract

Purpose

This paper assesses the co-movement between Pax gold and six fiat currencies. It also investigates the optimal time-varying hedge ratios in order to examine the properties of Pax gold as a diversifier and hedge asset.

Design/methodology/approach

This paper examines the volatility spillover between Pax gold and fiat currencies using the framework of wavelet analysis, BEKK-GARCH models and Range DCC-GARCH. Moreover, this paper proposes to use the covariance and variance structure obtained from the new range DCC-GARCH framework to estimate the time-varying optimal hedge ratios, the optimal weighs and the hedging effectiveness.

Findings

Wavelet coherence method reveals that, at low frequency, large zone of co-movements appears for the pairs Pax gold/EUR, Pax gold/JPY and Pax gold/RUB. Further, the BEKK results show unidirectional (bidirectional) transmission effects between Pax gold and EUR, GBP, JPY and CNY (INR, RUB) fiat currencies. Moreover, the Range DCC results show that the Pax gold and the fiat currency returns are weakly correlated with low coefficients close to zero. Thus, Pax gold seems to serve as a safe haven asset against the systematic risk of fiat currency markets. In addition, the results of optimal weights show that rational investor should invest more in Pax gold and less in fiat currencies. Concerning the hedge ratios results, the findings reveal that the INR (JPY) fiat currency appears to be the most expensive (cheapest) hedge for the Pax-gold market. However, the JPY’s fiat currency appears to be the cheapest one. As for hedging effectiveness results, the authors found that hedging strategies including fiat currencies–Pax gold pairs are most likely to sharply decrease the portfolio’s risk.

Practical implications

A comprehensive understanding of the relationship between Pax Gold and fiat currencies is crucial for refining portfolio strategies involving cryptocurrencies. This research underscores the significance of grasping volatility transmissions between these currencies, providing valuable insights to guide investors in their decision-making processes. Moreover, it encourages further exploration into the interdependencies of digital currencies. Additionally, this study sheds light on effective contagion risk management, particularly during crises such as Covid-19 and the Russia–Ukraine conflict. It underscores the role of Pax Gold as a safe-haven asset and offers practical guidance for adjusting portfolios across various economic conditions. Ultimately, this research advances our comprehension of Pax Gold’s risk-return profile, positioning it as a potential hedge during periods of uncertainty, thereby contributing to the evolving literature on cryptocurrencies.

Originality/value

This study’s primary value lies in its pioneering empirical examination of the time-varying correlations and scale dependence between Pax Gold and fiat currencies. It goes beyond by determining optimal time-varying hedge ratios through the innovative Range-DCC-GARCH model, originally introduced by Molnár (2016) and distinguished by its incorporation of both low and high prices. Significantly, this analysis unfolds within the unique context of the Covid-19 pandemic and the Russian–Ukrainian conflict, marking a novel contribution to the field.

Details

EuroMed Journal of Business, vol. ahead-of-print no. ahead-of-print
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1450-2194

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Article
Publication date: 27 September 2023

Susovon Jana and Tarak Nath Sahu

This study aims to investigate the possibilities of cryptocurrencies as hedges and diversifiers in the Indian stock market before and during financial crisis due to the pandemic…

Abstract

Purpose

This study aims to investigate the possibilities of cryptocurrencies as hedges and diversifiers in the Indian stock market before and during financial crisis due to the pandemic and the Russia–Ukraine war.

Design/methodology/approach

Researchers have used daily data on cryptocurrencies and Indian stock prices from March 10, 2015 to August 26, 2022. The researchers have used the dynamic conditional correlations (DCC)-GARCH model to determine the volatility spillover and dynamic correlation between stocks and digital currencies. Further, researchers have explored hedge ratio, portfolio weight and hedging effectiveness using the estimates of the DCC-GARCH model.

Findings

The findings indicate a negative conditional correlation between equities and cryptocurrencies before the crisis and a positive conditional correlation except for Tether during the crisis. Which implies that cryptocurrencies serve as a hedging asset in the stock market before a crisis but are not more than a diversifier during the crisis, except for Tether. Notably, Tether serves as a safe haven during times of crisis. Finally, the study suggests that Bitcoin, Ethereum, Binance Coin and Ripple are the most effective diversifiers for Indian stocks during the crisis.

Originality/value

This study makes several contributions to the existing literature. First, it compares the hedge and diversification roles of cryptocurrencies in the Indian stock market before and during crisis. Second, the study findings provide insights on risk hedging and can serve as a guide for investors. Third, it may help rational investors avoid underestimating risk while constructing portfolios, particularly in times of financial turmoil.

Details

Journal of Financial Economic Policy, vol. 15 no. 6
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1757-6385

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Open Access
Article
Publication date: 4 May 2023

Md. Bokhtiar Hasan, Md Mamunur Rashid, Md. Naiem Hossain, Mir Mahmudur Rahman and Md. Ruhul Amin

This research explores the spillovers and portfolio implications for green bonds and environmental, social and governance (ESG) assets in the context of the rapidly expanding…

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Abstract

Purpose

This research explores the spillovers and portfolio implications for green bonds and environmental, social and governance (ESG) assets in the context of the rapidly expanding trend in green finance investments and the need for a green recovery in the post-COVID-19 era.

Design/methodology/approach

This study utilizes Diebold and Yilmaz’s (2014) spillover method and portfolio strategies (hedge ratio, optimal weights and hedging effectiveness) for the data starting from February 29, 2012, to March 14, 2022.

Findings

The study’s findings reveal that the lower volatility spillover is evidenced between the green bonds and ESG stocks during tranquil and turbulent periods (e.g. COVID-19 and Russia-Ukraine War). Furthermore, hedging costs are lower both in normal times and during economic slumps. Investing the bulk of the funds in green bonds makes it possible to achieve maximum hedging effectiveness between the S&P green bond (GB) and the S&P 500 ESG.

Practical implications

Both investors and policymakers may use these findings to make wise investment and policy choices to achieve post-COVID environmental sustainability.

Originality/value

Unlike previous research, this is the first to explore the interconnectedness among the major global and country-specific green bonds and ESG assets. The major findings of this study about the lower volatility spillovers and hedging costs between green bonds and ESG assets during the tranquil and turbulent periods may contribute to the post-COVID investment portfolio for environmental sustainability.

Details

Fulbright Review of Economics and Policy, vol. 3 no. 1
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 2635-0173

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Article
Publication date: 12 January 2023

Slah Bahloul, Mourad Mroua and Nader Naifar

This paper aims to investigate the hedge, safe-haven and diversifier properties of Islamic indexes, Bitcoin and gold for ten of the most affected countries by the coronavirus…

Abstract

Purpose

This paper aims to investigate the hedge, safe-haven and diversifier properties of Islamic indexes, Bitcoin and gold for ten of the most affected countries by the coronavirus, which are the USA, Brazil, the UK, Italy, Spain, Germany, France, Russia, China and Malaysia.

Design/methodology/approach

This research uses the Ratner and Chiu (2013) methodology based on the dynamic conditional correlation models to improve Baur and McDermott (2010). The authors adopt a careful investigation of the features of a diversifier, hedge and safe haven using the dynamic conditional correlation–GARCH and quantile regression models.

Findings

Empirical results indicate that Islamic indexes are not considered as hedge assets for the conventional market for all studied countries during the COVID-19 pandemic crisis period. However, gold works as a strong hedge in all countries, except for Brazil and Malaysia. Bitcoin is a strong hedge in the USA and a strong hedge and safe haven in China.

Practical implications

International investors in China and the US stock markets should replace Islamic ‎indexes with Bitcoin in their conventional portfolio of securities during the pandemic.

Originality/value

To the best of the authors’ knowledge, this is the first paper that re-evaluates the hedge, safe-haven and diversifier properties of Islamic indexes, Bitcoin and gold for ten of the most affected countries by the coronavirus.

Details

Journal of Islamic Accounting and Business Research, vol. 14 no. 8
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1759-0817

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Article
Publication date: 29 May 2023

Muhammad Aftab, Inzamam Ul Haq and Mohamed Albaity

The COVID-19 pandemic has led to global economic policy uncertainty, which has increased the need to investigate ways to mitigate the uncertainty. This study aims to examine the…

Abstract

Purpose

The COVID-19 pandemic has led to global economic policy uncertainty, which has increased the need to investigate ways to mitigate the uncertainty. This study aims to examine the potential of cryptocurrencies as a hedge and safe haven avenue against economic policy uncertainty.

Design/methodology/approach

This study investigates the behavior of the five leading cryptocurrencies in relation to country-level and group-level economic policy uncertainty indices, as measured by the text-based method developed by Baker et al. (The Quarterly Journal of Economics, 2016, 131, 1593–1636). The research covers a broad range of emerging and developed economies from July 2013 to September 2020. The study employs the approach of Narayan et al. (Economic Modelling, 2016, 53, 388–397) to examine the hedging and safe-haven properties of cryptocurrencies.

Findings

This study finds that the top cryptocurrencies play a hedging role against economic policy uncertainty, with some exceptions. Additionally, there is evidence to support the idea that cryptocurrencies can serve as a safe haven during the COVID-19 pandemic. As a result, investors may benefit from using cryptocurrencies as a risk-management avenue during times of uncertainty.

Originality/value

This research contributes to the existing literature by testing the cryptocurrencies' hedging and safe haven properties in a new way, by analyzing their lead and lag behaviors using a recent and innovative approach. Additionally, it examines a wide range of emerging and advanced markets, providing insight into the potential of using cryptocurrencies as a risk mitigation avenue.

Details

China Finance Review International, vol. 13 no. 3
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 2044-1398

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