The hedging role of US and Chinese stock markets against economic and trade policy uncertainty: lessons from recent turbulences

Abstract

Purpose

This study analyses the impact of economic and trade policy uncertainty on US and Chinese stock markets. Also, this study examines the hedge and safe-haven properties of US and China stocks against both US and Chinese economic and trade policy uncertainty.

Design/methodology/approach

To achieve the desired goals, the authors employ Dynamic Conditional Correlation through Glosten et al. (1993) model based on the Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity (DCC-GJR-GARCH (1, 1)) and Quantile cross-spectral (QS) models. The study uses monthly observations spanning from March 2010 to June 2022.

Findings

This study evidence that the economic and trade policy uncertainty between USA and China is extremely sensitive and has high volatility clustering effects on DJChina88 and DJUS, respectively. Conversely, against the Chinese economic and trade policy uncertainty, the US stock market indexes show both hedging properties across the period and safe-haven during COVID-19 and Russia–Ukraine crises. In contrast, among the Chinese stock markets, only DJShenzhen and DJShanghai stock indices might provide strong hedging and safe-haven properties against the US economic and trade policy uncertainties; however, DJShenzhen (DJChina88) stock shows weak hedge and safe-haven properties (hedging benefits) against Chinese trade policy uncertainty (CTPU) (Chinese economic policy uncertainty [CEPU]).

Practical implications

The findings have significant implications for investors, portfolio managers and regulators in hedging and making proper decisions under uncertain circumstances.

Originality/value

The study extends the literature on stock market performance to cover the economic and trade policy uncertainty by providing novel evidence during the recent COVID-19 and Russia–Ukraine invasion.

Citation

Ghosh, S.K., Hossain, M.N. and Khatun, H. (2023), "The hedging role of US and Chinese stock markets against economic and trade policy uncertainty: lessons from recent turbulences", China Finance Review International, Vol. 13 No. 3, pp. 444-470. https://doi.org/10.1108/CFRI-08-2022-0154