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We investigate intraday data for KOSPI 200 index and KOSPI 200 index futures. Hourly theoretical futures prices are calculated based on cost of carry model. we compare hourly index futures prices with their theoretical prices. Consistent with a large body of previous researches in this area, we find the persistent deviation of futures prices from their theoretical prices. Futures prices are undervalued relative to their theoretical prices. The data indicate that the difference between futures price and its theoretical price exhibits U-shaped pattern over the trading hours. The differences are higher at open and at 15:00 and are lower over intraday trading hours, implying that previous studies using daily closing prices overstate this mispricing.

We also examine the effect of intraday spot return on the behavior of the difference between the hourly futures price and its theoretical price. The finding indicates that the intraday momentum generates U-shaped pattern of this mispricing. This contrasts with Kim and Park (2011)'s finding that the difference also increases as the prior 60 day spot return increases. Our finding invalidates their explanation the activities of arbitrageurs bring monotonic increasing pattern of the magnitude of this mispricing in their daily data.

We propose a new explanation the U shaped patttern of the difference between the futures price and its theoretical price generated by the intraday spot return's moment. We introduce risk-seeking trader in our new explanation. The trader's risk-seeking behavior is based on prospect theory (Kahneman and Tversky (1979)). We argue that the risk-seeking traders cause intraday momentum effect to generate the U-shaped pattern of this mispricing. We add speculator's variables to Kim and Park (2011)'s regression equation and estimate it. The results from the regression analysis lend support to our new explanation as well as theirs, implying that speculators and arbitrageurs are present and active in the spot and futures markets and generate different pattern of the mispricing.

In his review of 30 years of research in Prospect Theory, Barberis (2013) notes that support for Prospect Theory had come mainly from the laboratory. In this paper, I write about a recurring phenomenon in real life that is consistent with Prospect Theory predictions in decision-making loss domain. The 60 cases noted in this paper are associated with specific risk seekers that had cost more than $140 billion (an average of $2.33 billion per case). Given space consider– ations, I provide synopses for 14 cases. A few of these cases have been discussed in the extant literature in connection with internal control, but were not considered from the perspective of Prospect Theory. It is striking that these cases are costly, all participants are young men, and almost all had followed the gambler’s martingale strategy – i.e., double down. While these cases are informative about risk-seeking behavior, they are not sufficiently systematic to be subjected to stylized archival research methods.

High levels of turnover in financial markets are consistent with the notion that trading, like gambling, yields direct utility to some agents. The purpose of this paper is to show that the presence of these agents attenuates covariance risk pricing and volatility, and implies a negative relation between volume and future returns. Since psychological literature indicates that the desirability of a gamble arises from the ex ante volatility of the outcome, the authors propose that agents derive greater utility from trading more volatile stocks. These stocks earn lower average returns in equilibrium, although the risk premium on the market portfolio is positive. The authors then consider a dynamic setting where agents’ utility from trading increases when they make positive profits in earlier rounds (e.g. due to an endowment effect). This leads to “bubbles,” i.e. disproportionate jumps in asset returns as a function of past prices, higher volume in up markets relative to down markets, as well as a leverage effect, wherein down markets are followed by higher volatility than up markets.

Analytical.

The presence of gamblers attenuates covariance risk pricing and volatility, and implies a negative relation between volume and future returns. If gamblers prefer more volatile stocks, these stocks earn lower average returns in equilibrium. If agents’ utility from trading increases when they make positive profits in earlier rounds (e.g. to an endowment effect), this leads to higher volume and lower volatility in up markets relative to down markets.

No paper has previously modeled agents who derive direct utility from trading.

This paper first examines how changes in the real effective exchange rate and its volatility affect the exporting activities of firms. Next, it investigates whether exchange rate volatility (EXRV) affects the export behavior of financially constrained and unconstrained firms differently. Finally, it examines the role of financial development in mitigating the effects of EXRV and financial constraints on firms' exports.

The empirical analysis of the paper is based on a wide panel of Pakistani nonfinancial firms listed at the Pakistan Stock Exchange during the period 2001–2016. To mitigate the problem of endogeneity and to take into account the dynamic nature of the empirical model, the authors apply the robust two-step system-GMM estimator developed by Blundell and Bond (1998). To examine the role of credit constraints, firm-year observations are sorted as financially constrained and unconstrained based on the median value of three alternative measures: the liquidity ratio, the dividend payout ratio and the Whited and Wu (WW) index.

The results reveal that an increase in the real effective exchange rate has a positive and significant impact on firms' exports. However, the results show that the EXRV is significantly and negatively related to exporting decisions, suggesting firms considerably decrease their exports during periods of increased unpredictable variations in exchange rates. The findings also suggest that compared to financially constrained firms, the adverse effect of EXRV on exports is weaker for financially unconstrained firms. This finding implies that firm-level financial constraints unfavorably impact exports by making exporting more sensitive to the EXRV. Finally, the findings indicate that financial development not only positively affects firms' exports but also plays a vital role in declining the adverse effects of EXRV on firm-level exports. Specifically, the results show that financial development decreases the negative impact of EXRV on exports for both financially constrained and unconstrained firms. However, the moderating role of financial sector development is higher for financially unconstrained firms.

Notwithstanding that the authors present robust and strong empirical evidence of the effects of EXRV on exporting and on the role of both firm-level financial constraints and financial sector development in formulating these effects, there are some limitations of the study. The authors use a single proxy for measuring financial sector development. However, one may construct an index for the financial sector developed using principal component analysis (PCA) by considering different measures of financial development. The authors use three different measures of financial constraints. Nonetheless, more sophisticated techniques such as switching regression can be used to endogenously determine whether firms are financially constrained. Moreover, an examination of the asymmetric effects of EXRV on exporting across different industries would also be worthwhile.

From a policy point of view, the results suggest that the development of the financial sector and the strategies to lessen credit constraints faced by firms will help in mitigating the adverse effects of the EXRV on the exporting behavior of firms in Pakistan. The findings also suggest that managers in financially constrained firms should apply appropriate hedging strategies to hedge exchange rate risks. Finally, the findings suggest that investors should take into consideration exchange rate dynamics and firms' financial constraints while investing in exporting firms' stocks.

Since the findings suggest that financially constrained firms' exports are more exposed to EXRV, managers of such exporting firms are suggested to apply effective and suitable currency risk-minimizing hedging instruments for enhancing their exports. The government should also implement economic and financial policies in such a way that they should help in reducing volatilities of exchange rates and in turn, encouraging firms to export more. Definitely, any policy, at both government and firm level, favoring exporting and export-oriented growth will not only help in overcoming the problem of a persistent and wide trade deficit but also help society by providing more employment and investment opportunities.

Recently, Pakistan has experienced significant declines in foreign reserves, persistent political unrest and enlarged trade deficits. All these have increased the uncertainty about the exchange rate. Therefore, it is valuable to know the EXRV effects on firms' exporting activities. Second, Pakistani firms face more financial constraints, and thus, the influence of financial constraints in formulating the volatility effects on exporting would be worth exploring. Finally, no research has yet taken place to scrutinize the role of financial development in mitigating the adverse effects of EXRV and financial constraints on exporting activities. This paper provides firsthand empirical evidence on the role of financial constraints and financial sector development in formulating the EXRV impacts on firm-level exports in Pakistan.

Financial institutions actively seek to leverage the capabilities of artificial intelligence (AI) across diverse operations in the field. Especially, the adoption of AI advisors has a significant impact on trading and investing in the stock market. The purpose of this paper is to test whether AI advisors are less preferred compared to human advisors for investing and whether this algorithm aversion diminishes for trading.

The four hypotheses regarding the direct and indirect relationships between variables are tested in five experiments that collect data from Prolific.

The results of the five experiments reveal that, for investing, consumers are less likely to use AI advisors in comparison to human advisors. However, this reluctance to AI advisors decreases for trading. The author identifies the perceived importance of careful decision-making for investing and trading as the psychological mechanism. Specifically, the greater emphasis on careful decision-making in investing, as compared to trading, leads to consumers’ tendency to avoid AI advisors.

This research is the first to investigate whether algorithm aversion varies based on whether one’s approach to the stock market is investing or trading. Furthermore, it contributes to the literature on carefulness by exploring the interaction between a stock market approach and the lay belief that algorithms lack the capability to deliberate carefully.

The purpose of this paper is to investigate the existence of behavioral biases, disposition effect and house money effect in investment decisions of defined benefit pension funds. It investigates the determinants of portfolios by examining whether pensions display risk seeking or risk aversion behavior in reaction to prior gains and losses.

The first research question is to examine the impact of prior period’s return and αs on existing portfolio allocation in equity, debt, real estate and other assets. In order to test this relationship, four separate regressions are estimated using the pooled data. Regression helps in examining the relationship between prior gains with current allocation in four categories of assets of varying degrees of riskiness (stocks, debt, real estate and other assets). In order to investigate the second research question on whether pension funds increase (decrease) their investments in risky (safer) assets due to prior gains and αs, the four variables representing the changes in portfolio allocation for each asset class over one period are employed. These changes in allocation are regressed against the prior year’s actual return, expected return, αs and a set of control variables.

The results suggest significant negative (positive) relationship between prior positive returns and αs with portfolio allocation in risky (safer) assets. Also, there is an increased (decreased) investment in safer (risky) assets following prior period’s positive returns and αs. The findings confirm the existence of disposition effect, while there is no evidence of house money effect.

The portfolio allocation of pension plans provides unique setting to investigate the relevance of behavioral finance and examine the role of psychological biases on risk taking. This study attempts to contribute to the literature by empirically investigating whether the tenets of behavioral finance are relevant in defined benefit pension fund’s portfolio allocation decisions. Specifically, it focuses on the determinants of portfolio choices by directly investigating pension funds’ reaction to prior period’s actual as well as risk adjusted return (or αs – the difference between the actual and expected return).

As a type of electronic commerce, online C2C markets have experienced a rapid growth in both sales volume and user numbers. Buy‐it‐now (BIN) auction is a mechanism to facilitate online auctions, and is adopted by the major online C2C marketplaces. This study aims to investigate consumers' purchase and adoption of risk relief service in BIN auctions in the online C2C market from the perspective of perceived risk.

A research model is developed based on relevant theory. Data are collected from American and Chinese consumers through a web‐based experiment system that simulates the transaction process on online C2C markets. The proposed hypotheses are tested with logistic and multiple linear regressions.

The results show that buyer's purchase behavior and usage of risk relief service for a transaction in BIN auctions are determined by the perceived risk, which is influenced by the buyer's risk attitude, seller online reputation, and the product price and type.

This study provides an in‐depth understanding of consumers' behaviors on online C2C markets at transaction level, and makes implications for online marketplace operation and business strategy making.

The primary value of this paper lies in providing a better understanding of consumers' behaviors on online C2C market, and investigating the factors that influence the consumers' purchase and adoption of risk relief service in online BIN auctions from the perceived risk perspective.

The purpose of this paper is to empirically test dominant theories and assumptions in behavioral finance, using data from the Standard & Poor's 500 index.

The empirical analysis has three parts: to test the assumption of risk aversion; to examine the dominant theory that the optimal portfolio depends on risk preferences; and to test prospect theory that decision makers prefer certain outcomes over probable outcomes. Finally, an alternative model to test prospect theory is introduced.

The proposed model is more flexible than prospect theory since it does not a priori assume what value of the portfolio induces risk aversion/seeking, while it does not a priori preclude linear preferences. Empirical results show that: investors are risk seeking; a change in the sign of preferences does not necessarily imply a change in the sign of wealth/return and vice versa; and the optimal portfolio does not depend on preferences.

These findings are helpful to risk managers dealing with models of behavioural finance.

The contribution of this paper is that it successfully tests fundamental theories and assumptions in behavioral finance by providing a better alternative to prospect theory in several ways.

Purpose — The purpose of this chapter is to study the pattern of rogue trading, paying special attention to the aspects of the dishonest behavior of perpetrators.Design/methodology/approach — The chapter discusses selected cases of rogue trading that received the largest coverage by the mass media.Findings — No unique pattern of rogue trading schemes can be identified; however, certain similarities can be brought up based on the discussed cases. There are many aspects of dishonesty involved in fraudulent trading besides illicitness of unauthorized trading as such.Research limitations/implications — The chapter is based largely on a literature review and available data on the instances of rogue trading; probably, there is a vast amount of rogue trading cases undisclosed in order to draw a bigger picture.Originality/value — We apply the framework of white-collar crime process by McKay, Stevens, and Fratzl (2010) in order to clarify whether rogue trading schemes match the development of a typical white-collar crime. Conclusions are built on the analysis of several cases.

The purpose of this second of two companion papers is to further review the insights provided by experimental studies examining financial decisions and market behavior.

Focus is directed on those studies examining explicitly, or with direct implications for, the most robustly identified phenomena or stylized facts observed in behavioral finance. The themes for this second paper are biases, moods and emotions.

Experiments complement the findings from empirical studies in behavioral finance by avoiding some of the limitations or assumptions implicit in such studies.

The author synthesizes the valuable contribution made by experimental studies in extending the knowledge of how biases, moods and emotions influence the financial behavior of individuals, highlighting the role of experimental studies in policy design and intervention.