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In this study the martingale hypothesis concerning the stock index futures market is analyzed. The purpose is to understand how this notion concerning the behavior of the index futures affects the forecasting process. In addition, the forecasting of both daily and weekly stock index futures is examined. For daily forecasting, we find that the martingale method outperforms stepwise autoregressive and exponential smoothing methods However, for weekly forecasts, the stepwise autoregressive method is best.

This study examines the dynamic linkages between the Indian Nifty index futures traded on the offshore Singapore Exchange (SGX) and US stock indices (DJIA, NASDAQ and S&P 500) under the closure of the spot market for Nifty futures.

With high-frequency 5-min overlapping price data, the authors employ the Johansen cointegration test to investigate long-run relationships, the Granger causality test to assess short-run dynamics and the BEKK-GARCH model for volatility spillover investigation.

The empirical findings reveal that the SGX Nifty futures market is cointegrated with the US DJIA market. The US DJIA stock index strongly influences the price discovery of SGX Nifty futures and past innovations in the US markets strongly impact the current volatility of SGX Nifty futures.

Findings from this study have significant implications for market participants, particularly foreign investors and portfolio managers. These findings might be helpful for market participants to improve the prediction power of expected SGX Nifty futures price and volatility, especially under the closure of the spot market. Also, SGX market participants can take the significant role of the US market into account when formulating hedging and trading strategies with Indian Nifty futures. Besides, our findings have significant implications for policymakers in evaluating market stability.

This article adds to the very limited research on offshore or international stock index futures; it is the first study that empirically examines the international linkages of offshore SGX Nifty futures under the closure of its underlying spot market and also the driving force behind the linkages.

While the classic futures pricing tool works well for capital markets that are less affected by sentiment, it needs further modification in China's case as retail investors constitute a large portion of the Chinese stock market participants. Their expectations of the rate of return are prone to emotional swings. This paper, therefore, explores the role of investor sentiment in explaining futures basis changes via the channel of implied discount rates.

Using Chinese equity market data from 2010 to 2019, the authors augment the cost-of-carry model for pricing stock index futures by incorporating the investor sentiment factor. This design allows us to estimate the basis in a better way that reflects the relationship between the underlying index price and its futures price.

The authors find strong evidence that the measure of Chinese investor sentiment drives the abnormal fluctuations in the basis of China's stock index futures. Moreover, this driving force turns out to be much less prominent for large-cap stocks, liquid contracting frequencies, regulatory loosening periods and mature markets, further verifying the sentiment argument for basis mispricing.

This study contributes to the literature by relying on investor sentiment measures to explain the persistent discount anomaly of index futures basis in China. This finding is of great importance for Chinese investors with the intention to implement arbitrage, hedging and speculation strategies.

The purpose of this paper is to examine the lead‐lag relationships between the National Stock Exchange (NSE) Nifty stock market index (in India) and its related futures and options contracts, and also the interrelation between the derivatives markets.

The paper uses serial correlation of return series and autoregressive moving average (ARMA) model for studying the lead‐lag relationship between hourly returns on the NSE Nifty index and its derivatives contracts like futures, call and put options. Further, the lead‐lag relation between hourly returns of the derivatives contracts among themselves is also studied using ARMA models.

The ARMA analysis shows that the NSE Nifty derivatives markets tend to lead the underlying stock index. The futures market clearly leads the cash market although this lead appears to be eroding slightly over time. Although the options market leads the cash overall, there is some feedback between the two with the underlying index leading at times. Further, it is found that the index call options lead the index futures more strongly than futures lead calls, while the futures lead puts more strongly than the reverse.

The results imply that the derivative contracts on NSE Nifty lead the underlying cash market. Thus, the derivative markets are indicative of futures price movements and this will certainly be helpful to potential investors to design their risk‐return portfolio while investing in stocks and derivatives contracts.

This paper is an original piece of work towards exploring the lead‐lag relation between NSE Nifty and the derivative contracts. The issue of price discovery on futures and spot markets and the lead‐lag relationship are topics of interest to traders, financial economists, and analysts.

This paper aims to investigate the volatility transmission and dynamics in China Securities Index (CSI) 300 index futures market.

This paper applies the bivariate Constant Conditional Correlation (CCC) and Dynamic Conditional Correlation (DCC) Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity (GARCH) models using high frequency data. Estimates for the bivariate GARCH models are obtained by maximising the log-likelihood of the probability density function of a conditional Student’s t distribution.

This empirical analysis yields a few interesting results: there is a one-way feedback of volatility transmission from the CSI 300 index futures to spot returns, suggesting index futures market leads the spot market; volatility response to past bad news is asymmetric for both markets; volatility can be intensified by the disequilibrium between spot and futures prices; and trading volume has significant impact on volatility for both markets. These results reveal new evidence on the informational efficiency of the CSI 300 index futures market compared to earlier studies.

This paper shows that the CSI 300 index futures market has improved in terms of price discovery one year after its existence compared to its early days. This is an important finding for market participants and regulators. Further, this study considers the volatility response to news, market disequilibrium and trading volume. The findings are thus useful for financial risk management.

Focusing on the spillover effects between the CSI 500 stock index futures market and its underlying spot market during April to September 2015, the purpose of this paper is to explore whether Chinese stock index futures should be responsible for the 2015 stock market crash.

Using both linear and non-linear econometric models, this paper empirically examines the mean spillover and the volatility spillover between the CSI 500 stock index futures market and the underlying spot market.

The results showed the following: the CSI 500 stock index futures market has significant one-way mean spillover effect on its spot market. The volatility in CSI 500 stock index futures market also has a significant positive spillover effect on its spot stock market, and the mean value of dynamic correlation coefficient between the two market volatility is 0.4848. The spillover effect of the CSI 500 stock index futures market on the underlying spot market is significantly asymmetric, characterized by relatively moderate and slow during the period of the markets rising, yet violent and rapid during the period of the markets falling. The findings suggest that although the stock index futures itself was not the “culprit” of Chinese stock market crash in 2015, its existence indeed accelerated and exacerbated the stock market’s decline under the imperfect trading system.

Different from the existing literature mainly focusing on CSI 300 stock index futures, this paper empirically examines the impact of the introduction of CSI 500 stock index futures on 2015 Chinese stock market crash for the first time.

The purpose of this paper is to study the effect of different parts (predictable and impact) of different types of speculative behavior (intraday speculation, medium-term speculation and long-term speculation) on future fluctuations in the underlying index.

The authors input information about heterogeneous speculative behavior into the HAR-RV model to study the effect of different parts (predictable and impact) of different types of speculative behavior (intraday speculation, medium-term speculation and long-term speculation) on the future fluctuation of the underlying index.

The authors find that the increase in intraday speculation will exacerbate spot market volatility; and the expected increase of long-term value speculation can reduce market volatility, but the shock of speculation will exacerbate market volatility.

The authors suggest that regulators should strictly limit speculative intraday trading, and also focus on the long-term value speculation that decreases market volatility, in order to guide the benign development of the markets that stabilize abnormal market fluctuations.

First, in view of the correlation between the futures and spot markets, the authors put forward a new proxy for the speculation degree. Second, the authors input heterogeneous speculative behavior into the HAR-RV model to study the effects of different parts (predictable and impact) on different types of speculative behavior (intraday speculation, medium-term speculation and long-term speculation) on the future fluctuation of the underlying index.

We examine the impact of the unique Japanese stock market microstructure on the pricing of stock index futures contracts. We use intraday transactions data for the Nikkei 225 Futures contracts in Osaka and the corresponding Nikkei 225 Index in Tokyo. Incorporating more realistic transaction-cost estimates and various institutional impediments in Japan, we find that the time-varying liquidity of some component shares of the index in Tokyo represents the most critical impediment to intraday arbitrage and often causes futures prices in Osaka to deviate significantly and persistently from their no-arbitrage boundary, especially for longer-lived contracts.

With the launch of CSI 300 Index Futures trading on April 16, 2010, China's stock market presents a more diversified trend, such as arbitrage, trends strategy entering the market rapidly. Therefore, the liquidity demand also presents a higher frequency, and the change is more complex than the original situation. In recent years, many literatures are engaged in high-frequency trading (HFT) related research, and an important concern is the impact of HFT on market volatility and liquidity. Is it playing the role of stabilizing the market, or bringing more noise and turmoil? Based on this, the purpose of this study is trying to study what kind of impact the HFT have on market liquidity before and after the launch of the CSI 300 Index Futures.

The paper uses the simultaneous equations model of price and net order flow proposed by Deuskar and Johnson and for the first time introduces an asymmetric identification through heteroskedasticity (ITH) method. The paper applies the method to the high-frequency data of CSI 300 Index and the Futures and classifies the buying and selling orders through volume clock. The price risks are decomposed into a component driven by the impact of liquidity demand shocks (flow-driven risks (FDRs)) and a component driven by external information (information-driven risks (IDRs)).

The empirical results show that the flow-driven risk of CSI 300 Index Futures is about 20 percent. In addition, before the introduction of the Index Futures, there is no asymmetric effect between liquidity demand shocks and price shocks existing in either CSI 300 Index or CSI 300 Index Futures. While after the introduction of stock Index Futures, the asymmetric effect in the both two markets emerges. The impact of the buying net order flows on the price is less than the impact of the selling net order flows on CSI 300 Index, whereas the impact of the buying net order flows on the price is larger than the impact of the selling net order flows on CSI 300 Index Futures. The paper further analyzes the relationship between liquidity and FDR and gets the conclusion that the reasons for the deterioration of the liquidity level are caused by the impact of the external information shocks, rather than the liquidity demand shocks. And entries of HFTs like arbitrage traders and hedge traders play a positive role in improving the liquidity level in the market.

The paper introduces an asymmetric ITH method for the first time and finds asymmetric effect of the net order flow on the return in both CSI 300 Index market and the corresponding Index Futures market.

The purpose of the paper is to investigate the price interrelationship between the Taiwanese and US financial markets.

The trivariate GJR‐GARCH (1,1) model and event study were employed to investigate volatility asymmetry and overreaction phenomenon, respectively.

The empirical results show that return volatility reveals the asymmetric phenomenon, and the holding period returns on US index futures from the opening of the US index futures electronic trading to the opening of the Taiwanese stock market are an important reference for investors in the Taiwanese stock market. Additionally, the paper presents an overreaction of the Taiwan Stock Exchange Capitalization Weighted Stock Index to a drastic price rise of E‐min NASDAQ 100 Index futures at the opening of the Taiwanese stock market.

This paper deletes the observations arising from the different national holidays of the USA and Taiwan, to have the same number of observations in both markets, which might contaminate the empirical results.

Investors in the Taiwanese stock market tend to pay more attention to the fluctuations in the share prices of high‐technological companies in the USA.

Most of the previous studies regarding price transmission between the Taiwanese and US stock markets focused mainly on the Taiwanese market reactions to the overnight returns of the US market. This paper enlarges the current field by examining the lead‐lag relationship, the volatility asymmetry, and the overreaction phenomenon between the Taiwanese and US financial markets according to the most updated US stock index information.