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Article
Publication date: 8 January 2024

Deevarshan Naidoo, Peter Brian Denton Moores-Pitt and Joseph Olorunfemi Akande

Understanding which market to invest in for a well-diversified portfolio is fundamental in economies that are highly vulnerable to fluctuations in exchange rates. Extant…

Abstract

Purpose

Understanding which market to invest in for a well-diversified portfolio is fundamental in economies that are highly vulnerable to fluctuations in exchange rates. Extant literature that has considered phenomenon hardly juxtapose the markets. The purpose of this study is to examine the effects of exchange rate volatility on the Stock and Real Estate market of South Africa. The essence is to determine whether the fluctuations in the exchange rate influence the markets prices differently.

Design/methodology/approach

The Generalised Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity [GARCH (1.1)] model was used in establishing the effect of exchange rate volatility on both markets. This study used monthly South African data between 2000 and 2020.

Findings

The results of this study showed that increased exchange rate volatility increases stock market volatility but decreases real-estate market volatility, both of which revealed weak influences from the exchange rates volatility.

Practical implications

This study has implication for policy in using the exchange rate as a policy tool to attract foreign portfolio investment. The weak volatility transmission from the exchange rate market to the stock and real estate market indicates that there is prospect for foreign investors to diversify their investments in these two markets.

Originality/value

This study investigated which of the assets market, stock or housing market do better in volatile exchange rate conditions in South Africa.

Details

International Journal of Housing Markets and Analysis, vol. ahead-of-print no. ahead-of-print
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1753-8270

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 29 March 2024

Sharmila Devi R., Swamy Perumandla and Som Sekhar Bhattacharyya

The purpose of this study is to understand the investment decision-making of real estate investors in housing, highlighting the interplay between rational and irrational factors…

Abstract

Purpose

The purpose of this study is to understand the investment decision-making of real estate investors in housing, highlighting the interplay between rational and irrational factors. In this study, investment satisfaction was a mediator, while reinvestment intention was the dependent variable.

Design/methodology/approach

A quantitative, cross-sectional and descriptive research design was used, gathering data from a sample of 550 residential real estate investors using a multi-stage stratified sampling technique. The partial least squares structural equation modelling disjoint two-stage approach was used for data analysis. This methodological approach allowed for an in-depth examination of the relationship between rational factors such as location, profitability, financial viability, environmental considerations and legal aspects alongside irrational factors including various biases like overconfidence, availability, anchoring, representative and information cascade.

Findings

This study strongly supports the adaptive market hypothesis, showing that residential real estate investor behaviour is dynamic, combining rational and irrational elements influenced by evolutionary psychology. This challenges traditional views of investment decision-making. It also establishes that behavioural biases, key to adapting to market changes, are crucial in shaping residential property market efficiency. Essentially, the study uncovers an evolving real estate investment landscape driven by evolutionary behavioural patterns.

Research limitations/implications

This research redefines rationality in behavioural finance by illustrating psychological biases as adaptive tools within the residential property market, urging a holistic integration of these insights into real estate investment theories.

Practical implications

The study reshapes property valuation models by blending economic and psychological perspectives, enhancing investor understanding and market efficiency. These interdisciplinary insights offer a blueprint for improved regulatory policies, investor education and targeted real estate marketing, fundamentally transforming the sector’s dynamics.

Originality/value

Unlike previous studies, the research uniquely integrates human cognitive behaviour theories from psychology and business studies, specifically in the context of residential property investment. This interdisciplinary approach offers a more nuanced understanding of investor behaviour.

Details

International Journal of Housing Markets and Analysis, vol. ahead-of-print no. ahead-of-print
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1753-8270

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 21 November 2023

Haobo Zou, Mansoora Ahmed, Syed Ali Raza and Rija Anwar

Monetary policy has major impacts on macroeconomic indicators of the country. Accordingly, uncertainty regarding monetary policy shifts can cause challenges and risks for…

Abstract

Purpose

Monetary policy has major impacts on macroeconomic indicators of the country. Accordingly, uncertainty regarding monetary policy shifts can cause challenges and risks for businesses, financial markets and investors. Thus, the purpose of this study is to investigate how real estate market volatility responds to monetary policy uncertainty.

Design/methodology/approach

The GARCH-MIDAS model is applied in this study to investigate the nexus between monetary policy uncertainty and real estate market volatility. This model was fundamentally instituted to accommodate low-frequency variables.

Findings

The results of this study reveal that increased monetary policy uncertainty highly affects the volatility in real estate market during the peak period of COVID-19 as compared to full sample period and COVID-19 recovery period; hence, a significant decline is evident in real estate market volatility during crisis.

Originality/value

This study is particularly focused on peak and recovery period of COVID-19 considering the geographical region of Greece, Japan and the USA. This study provides a complete perspective on the nexus between monetary policy uncertainty and real estate markets volatility in three distinct economic views.

Details

International Journal of Housing Markets and Analysis, vol. ahead-of-print no. ahead-of-print
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1753-8270

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 19 December 2023

Sunday Olarinre Oladokun and Manya Mainza Mooya

Challenges of property data in developing markets have been reported by several authors. However, a deep understanding of the actual nature of this phenomenon in developing…

Abstract

Purpose

Challenges of property data in developing markets have been reported by several authors. However, a deep understanding of the actual nature of this phenomenon in developing markets is largely lacking as in-depth studies into the actual nature of data challenge in such markets are scarce in literature. Specifically, the available literature lacks clarity about the actual nature of data challenges that developing markets pose to valuers and how this affects valuation practice. This study provides this understanding with focus on the Lagos property market.

Design/methodology/approach

This study utilises a qualitative research approach. A total of 24 valuers were selected using snowballing sampling technique, and in-depth semi-structured interviews were conducted. Data collected were analysed using thematic analysis with the aid of NVivo 12 software.

Findings

The study finds that the main data-related challenge in the Lagos property market is the lack of database of market property transactions and not the lack or absence of transaction data as it has been emphasised in previous studies. Other data-related challenges identified include weak property rights institution with attendant transaction costs, underhand dealings among professionals, undocumented charges, undisclosed information, scarcity of data relating to specialised assets and limited access to the subject property and required documents during valuation. Also, the study unbundles the factors responsible for these challenges and how they affect valuation practice.

Practical implications

The study has implication for practice in the sense that the deeper knowledge of data challenges could provide insight into strategy to tackle the challenges.

Originality/value

This study contributes to the body of knowledge by offering a fresh and in-depth perspective to the issue of data challenges in developing markets and how the peculiar nature of the real estate market affects the nature of data challenges. The qualitative approach adopted in this study allowed for a deep enquiry into the phenomenon and resulted into an extended insight into the peculiar nature of data challenges in a typical developing property market.

Details

Journal of Property Investment & Finance, vol. ahead-of-print no. ahead-of-print
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1463-578X

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 26 January 2024

Mohamed Marzouk and Dina Hamdala

The aggressive competition in the real estate market forces real estate developers to tackle the challenge of selecting the best project construction phasing alternative. The real…

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Abstract

Purpose

The aggressive competition in the real estate market forces real estate developers to tackle the challenge of selecting the best project construction phasing alternative. The real estate industry is characterized by high costs, high profit and high risks. The schedules of real estate projects are also characterized by having large number of repetitive activities that are executed over a long duration. The repetitiveness, long duration of execution, the high amounts of money involved and the high risk made it desirable to leverage the impact of changes in phasing plans on net present value of amounts incurred and received over the long execution and selling duration. This also changes the project progress, and delivery time as well as their respective impact on customer degree of satisfaction. This research addresses the problem of selecting the best phasing alternative for real estate development projects while maximizing customer satisfaction and project profit.

Design/methodology/approach

The research proposes a model that generates all construction phasing alternatives and performs decision-making to rank all possible phasing alternatives. The proposed model consists of five modules: (1) Phasing Sequencing module, (2) Customer Satisfaction module, (3) Cash-In calculation module, (4) Cost Estimation module and (5) Decision-making module. A case study was presented to demonstrate the practicality of the model.

Findings

The proposed model satisfies the real estate market's need for proper construction phasing plans evaluation and selection against the project's main success criteria, customer satisfaction and project profit. The proposed model generates all construction phasing alternatives and performs multi-criteria decision making to rank all possible phasing alternatives. It quantifies the score of the two previously mentioned criteria and ranks all solutions according to their overall score.

Research limitations/implications

The research proposes a model that assist real estate market's need for proper construction phasing plans evaluation and selection against the project's main success criteria, customer satisfaction and project profit. The proposed model can be used to conclude general guidelines and common successful practices to be used by real estate developers when deciding the construction phasing plan. In this study the model is based on business models where all the project units are sold, rental cases are not considered. Also, the budget limitations that might exist when phasing is not considered in the model computations.

Originality/value

The model can be used as a complete platform that can hold all real estate project data, process revenues and cost information for estimating profit, plotting cash flow profiles, quantifying the degree of customer satisfaction attributable to each phasing alternative and providing recommendation showing the best one. The model can be used to conclude general guidelines and common successful practices to be used by real estate developers when tackling the challenge of selecting construction phasing plans.

Details

Engineering, Construction and Architectural Management, vol. ahead-of-print no. ahead-of-print
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 0969-9988

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 11 April 2024

Niharika Mehta, Seema Gupta and Shipra Maitra

Foreign direct investment in the real estate (FDIRE) sector is required to bridge the gap between investment needed and domestic funds. Further, foreign direct investment is…

Abstract

Purpose

Foreign direct investment in the real estate (FDIRE) sector is required to bridge the gap between investment needed and domestic funds. Further, foreign direct investment is gaining importance because other sources of raising finance such as External Commercial Borrowing and foreign currency convertible bonds have been banned in the Indian real estate sector. Therefore, the objective of the study is to explore the determinants attracting foreign direct investment in real estate and to assess the impact of those variables on foreign direct investments in real estate.

Design/methodology/approach

Johansen cointegration test, vector error correction model along with variance decomposition and impulse response function are employed to understand the nexus of the relationship between various macroeconomic variables and foreign direct investment in real estate.

Findings

The results indicate that infrastructure, GDP and tourism act as drivers of foreign direct investment in real estate. However, interest rates act as a barrier.

Originality/value

This article aimed at exploring factors attracting FDIRE along with estimating the impact of identified variables on FDI in real estate. Unlike other studies, this study considers FDI in real estate instead of foreign real estate investments.

Details

Property Management, vol. ahead-of-print no. ahead-of-print
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 0263-7472

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 4 April 2024

Katharina Oktabec and Nadine Wills

Sustainability has become an integral part of the real estate industry, alongside advancing globalization and demographic development. Due to real estate's influence on greenhouse…

Abstract

Purpose

Sustainability has become an integral part of the real estate industry, alongside advancing globalization and demographic development. Due to real estate's influence on greenhouse gas emissions throughout its life cycle, both the regulatory and legal requirements concerning the sustainability of real estate are growing and, as a result of social responsibility, the interest of tenants and investors in sustainable real estate. However, criteria for measuring the ecological sustainability of a real estate investment in the purchase process in order to reduce the risk of including “stranded assets” in the portfolio are missing. This paper aims to address the need to integrate the issue of carbon stranding into existing sustainability rating tools.

Design/methodology/approach

Existing tools are examined based on defined criteria to determine whether they are suitable for purchasing a property before suitable tools for purchase are compared. Strengths and weaknesses are identified, which are to be remedied with the scoring tool. Taxonomy regulation is integrated into the existing valuation basis as a legal regulation.

Findings

The result is a scoring tool that enables real estate companies to measure and evaluate the ecological sustainability performance of a property during the acquisition process, taking into account the three aspects of sustainability and considering them when determining an appropriate purchase price in line with market conditions. Moreover, the developed tool helps to minimize the risk of acquiring a stranding asset.

Research limitations/implications

The environmental, social and governance (ESG) framework employed in this study does not incorporate governance considerations. While the analysis extensively evaluates the building's environmental and social aspects, it does not extend to examining the governance practices of the companies involved. Thus, the assessment is confined solely to the physical attributes of the property without accounting for broader corporate governance factors.

Practical implications

The developed scoring tool represents a valuable tool for the real estate industry, offering insights into sustainability performance during property acquisitions and providing a structured framework for decision-making. By addressing both certification and taxonomy regulation requirements, the tool contributes to the industry's evolution toward more sustainable and environmentally responsible real estate practices.

Originality/value

In response to the growing importance of sustainability in the real estate industry, this paper introduces a novel scoring tool for evaluating the sustainability of real estate investments during the acquisition process.

Details

Journal of Property Investment & Finance, vol. ahead-of-print no. ahead-of-print
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1463-578X

Keywords

Open Access
Article
Publication date: 14 March 2024

Andreas Joel Kassner

Many studies have analysed the impact of various variables on the ability of companies to raise capital. While most of these studies are sector-agnostic, literature on the effects…

Abstract

Purpose

Many studies have analysed the impact of various variables on the ability of companies to raise capital. While most of these studies are sector-agnostic, literature on the effects of macroeconomic variables on sectors that established over the last 20 years like property technology and financial technology, is scarce. This study aims to identify macroeconomic factors that influence the ability of both sectors and is extended by real estate variables.

Design/methodology/approach

The impact of macroeconomic and real estate related factors is analysed using multiple linear regression and quantile regression. The sample covers 338 observations for PropTech and 595 for FinTech across 18 European countries and 5 deal types between 2000–2001 with each observation representing the capital invested per year for each deal type and country.

Findings

Besides confirming a significant impact of macroeconomic variables on the amount of capital invested, this study finds that additionally the real estate transaction volume positively impacts PropTech while the real estate yield-bond-gap negatively impacts FinTech.

Practical implications

For PropTech and FinTech companies and their investors it is critical to understand the dynamic with mac-ro variables and also the real estate industry. The direct connection identified in this paper is critical for a holistic understanding of the effects of measurable real estate variables on capital investments into both sectors.

Originality/value

The analysis fills the gap in the literature between variables affecting investment into firms and effects of the real estate industry on the investment activity into PropTech and FinTech.

Details

Journal of European Real Estate Research, vol. ahead-of-print no. ahead-of-print
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1753-9269

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 3 February 2023

Shahriar Kabir, Zakia Binte Jamal and Bindu Proshad Kairy

This study is based on the consumer purchase intention (CPI) in real estate. The purpose of this study is to investigate the link between CPI and preferred individual investment…

Abstract

Purpose

This study is based on the consumer purchase intention (CPI) in real estate. The purpose of this study is to investigate the link between CPI and preferred individual investment capacity in buying real estate properties. This study investigates if commonly known factors of CPI such as attitude, social power or subjective norms, perceived behavior power or control, location, surrounding environment and socialization can influence a consumer’s preferred investment amount when buying a house, either for own use or for rental purpose.

Design/methodology/approach

A total of 334 respondents participated in this study. The survey data was analyzed using factor analysis technique, ordinary least square technique and Poisson pseudo maximum likelihood technique.

Findings

This study finds that location, surrounding environment, property/construction papers, roads, mosque/temple and fire services significantly influence the preferred investment amount of a real estate investor.

Originality/value

This study suggests that a link exists between CPI and real estate investment decision through factors such as location, surrounding environment, legal documentation and communication facility. These identified CPI factors require serious consideration by the real estate developers and their financing partners.

Details

International Journal of Housing Markets and Analysis, vol. ahead-of-print no. ahead-of-print
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1753-8270

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 6 December 2023

Z. Göknur Büyükkara, İsmail Cem Özgüler and Ali Hepsen

The purpose of this study is to explore the intricate relationship between oil prices, house prices in the UK and Norway, and the mediating role of gold and stock prices in both…

Abstract

Purpose

The purpose of this study is to explore the intricate relationship between oil prices, house prices in the UK and Norway, and the mediating role of gold and stock prices in both the short- and long-term, unraveling these complex linkages by employing an empirical approach.

Design/methodology/approach

This study benefits from a comprehensive set of econometric tools, including a multiequation vector autoregressive (VAR) system, Granger causality test, impulse response function, variance decomposition and a single-equation autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) system. This rigorous approach enables to identify both short- and long-run dynamics to unravel the intricate linkages between Brent oil prices, housing prices, gold prices and stock prices in the UK and Norway over the period from 2005:Q1 to 2022:Q2.

Findings

The findings indicate that rising oil prices negatively impact house prices, whereas the positive influence of stock market performance on housing is more pronounced. A two-way causal relationship exists between stock market indices and house prices, whereas a one-way causal relationship exists from crude oil prices to house prices in both countries. The VAR model reveals that past housing prices, stock market indices in each country and Brent oil prices are the primary determinants of current housing prices. The single-equation ARDL results for housing prices demonstrate the existence of a long-run cointegrating relationship between real estate and stock prices. The variance decomposition analysis indicates that oil prices have a more pronounced impact on housing prices compared with stock prices. The findings reveal that shocks in stock markets have a greater influence on housing market prices than those in oil or gold prices. Consequently, house prices exhibit a stronger reaction to general financial market indicators than to commodity prices.

Research limitations/implications

This study may have several limitations. First, the model does not include all relevant macroeconomic variables, such as interest rates, unemployment rates and gross domestic product growth. This omission may affect the accuracy of the model’s predictions and lead to inefficiencies in the real estate market. Second, this study does not consider alternative explanations for market inefficiencies, such as behavioral finance factors, information asymmetry or market microstructure effects. Third, the models have limitations in revealing how predictors react to positive and negative shocks. Therefore, the results of this study should be interpreted with caution.

Practical implications

These findings hold significant implications for formulating dynamic policies aimed at stabilizing the housing markets of these two oil-producing nations. The practical implications of this study extend to academics, investors and policymakers, particularly in light of the volatility characterizing both housing and commodity markets. The findings reveal that shocks in stock markets have a more profound impact on housing market prices compared with those in oil or gold prices. Consequently, house prices exhibit a stronger reaction to general financial market indicators than to commodity prices.

Social implications

These findings could also serve as valuable insights for future research endeavors aimed at constructing models that link real estate market dynamics to macroeconomic indicators.

Originality/value

Using a variety of econometric approaches, this paper presents an innovative empirical analysis of the intricate relationship between euro property prices, stock prices, gold prices and oil prices in the UK and Norway from 2005:Q1 to 2022:Q2. Expanding upon the existing literature on housing market price determinants, this study delves into the role of gold and oil prices, considering their impact on industrial production and overall economic growth. This paper provides valuable policy insights for effectively managing the impact of oil price shocks on the housing market.

Details

International Journal of Housing Markets and Analysis, vol. ahead-of-print no. ahead-of-print
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1753-8270

Keywords

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