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Article
Publication date: 1 January 1986

WILL FRASER

This paper investigates the risk incurred in UK property investment by the major investing institutions. The historic variability of investment returns from property is compared…

Abstract

This paper investigates the risk incurred in UK property investment by the major investing institutions. The historic variability of investment returns from property is compared with that from long dated British government bonds (gilts) and ordinary shares (equities) using data from the JLW Property Index.1 A variety of definitions of risk are examined in order to assess the relative risk of property, considered both in isolation and as an integral part of the overall institutional portfolio. The investigation concludes that, since the late 1960s, property has involved significantly less risk than either of the two alternative investments.

Details

Journal of Valuation, vol. 4 no. 1
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 0263-7480

Article
Publication date: 25 February 2021

Georgia Warren-Myers and Lucy Cradduck

The purpose of this research is to investigate Australian property valuers' identification and consideration of physical risks to properties in valuation practice. The research…

Abstract

Purpose

The purpose of this research is to investigate Australian property valuers' identification and consideration of physical risks to properties in valuation practice. The research further explores valuers' considerations of climate change-related risks.

Design/methodology/approach

The research approach comprised an online survey of Australian valuers who were members of the Australian Property Institute. The online survey included structured and unstructured questions to explore types and extent of risk investigations in valuation practice.

Findings

The analysis reflects that while valuers easily identified and engaged with physical risks, there is a lack of understanding of, and engagement with, climate change risks. This supports the need for better information sources and guidance to inform valuers of climate change risks per se, as well as the development of specific mechanisms for consideration of such risks to be included in valuation processes, practices and reports.

Research limitations/implications

The research is limited by the small sample size achieved due to the timing of the survey deployment, which occurred during the first wave of COVID-19 lockdowns in Australia. Thus, the findings are not necessarily representative of the Australian valuation profession, but they do provide indications of current approaches to risk identification in practice and the need for more guidance in relation to climate change risks.

Practical implications

This research identifies that more support, guidance, information and tools, as well as awareness-raising, are required to enable valuers to accurately identify all risks affecting a property.

Originality/value

The research provides a snapshot of current understandings of physical risk identification in valuation practice. As investors and other organisations integrate and build up their analysis of climate risks to their portfolios and organisations, this research indicates that valuers also need to be aware of changing market assessment of physical and climate risks associated with property for consideration in valuation.

Details

Journal of Property Investment & Finance, vol. 40 no. 1
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1463-578X

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 1 December 2000

Peter Byrne and Stephen Lee

This paper investigates the extent to which risk reduction can be achieved within the UK property market in high and low Beta portfolios. This issue is examined by making…

4447

Abstract

This paper investigates the extent to which risk reduction can be achieved within the UK property market in high and low Beta portfolios. This issue is examined by making simulations of property portfolios of increasing size using the largest sample (392) of actual property returns that is currently available, over the period 1981 to 1996. In particular it is shown that the achievable level of risk reduction is negatively related to the level of market risk of the individual assets. Thus portfolios based on individually high market risk assets require larger numbers of properties to achieve the same level of risk reduction than low Beta risk portfolios. In addition it is shown that the number of properties needed to “track” the market is prohibitively large and unlikely to be achievable for all but the very largest UK property funds. The practical implications of this are that UK property fund performance is likely to be mainly driven by stock selection, even for the largest funds. For those fund managers who wish to track the market the costs in terms of portfolio value seem prohibitively expensive. On this basis, no UK property fund, even the largest, would follow a passive investment policy.

Details

Journal of Property Investment & Finance, vol. 18 no. 6
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1463-578X

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 14 September 2015

Sandy Bond

This paper aims to investigate residents’ perceptions of risk towards owning and living in residential property in Christchurch subsequent to the 2010 and 2011 Canterbury…

Abstract

Purpose

This paper aims to investigate residents’ perceptions of risk towards owning and living in residential property in Christchurch subsequent to the 2010 and 2011 Canterbury earthquakes to identify how these perceptions impact on the price residents are willing to pay for affected property. Such market behaviour can motivate homeowners to adopt risk mitigation measures.

Design/methodology/approach

An online survey was developed and the Web link distributed to Canterbury residents via the media. This method of distribution was adopted, as a postal survey was not possible due to the number of homes that had been destroyed by the earthquakes and the highly transient nature of the community as a result.

Findings

The results indicate that with the recent earthquake experience, residents are demonstrating risk mitigation behaviours through an aversion to investing in properties affected by, or with a risk of, liquefaction. Specifically, the majority of respondents had strong reservations about buying Technical Category 3 property, and would be prepared to pay 20 per cent (or > 20 per cent) less for it, indicating some stigma towards affected property. Further, most respondents would now prefer the construction of their home to be of a type that fared better in the earthquakes: lightweight, single-storey, with a concrete slab foundation. These housing preferences will likely drive the market towards the adoption of risk mitigation measures in the retrofit of existing homes as well as in the design and construction of new homes.

Research limitations/implications

Due to the number of homes that had been destroyed by the earthquakes and the highly transient nature of the community as a result, probability sampling was not possible. This, together with the low response rate, means that the respondents surveyed may not be representative of the Christchurch population.

Practical implications

The outcomes of this research will be of interest not only to homeowners wanting to know how their home’s value has been impacted by market perceptions towards earthquake and liquefaction damage, particularly in the worst-affected areas, but also the rating valuers tasked with assessing property values for rating purposes. Property developers and builders involved in the repair of existing homes and construction of new homes will also want to know current market preferences. Government bodies will find the results informative of how the media has, and can be used, to motivate market behaviour towards risk mitigation, particularly in regard to “material risk” (as described in Solberg et al., 2010), that is risk from a scientific and technical viewpoint of probability of future risk, and as related to what has become known about these risks in terms of building structure, height, age, soil type/land categories and flood zones. Further, the results provide a gauge of how the community perceived the handling of the recovery process, so that the weaknesses highlighted can be addressed, which will help restore community trust.

Originality/value

This study fills a research void on the impact of residents’ perceptions of risk towards home ownership in a city impacted by significant earthquakes and resulting liquefaction.

Details

International Journal of Disaster Resilience in the Built Environment, vol. 6 no. 3
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1759-5908

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 1 December 1994

Neil J.K. Turner, Stuart A. Gronow and Paul Pritchard

Illustrates that there are environmental risks associated with thecurrent land uses which can be expected to be found within theindustrial element of both institutional and…

3226

Abstract

Illustrates that there are environmental risks associated with the current land uses which can be expected to be found within the industrial element of both institutional and property investment company portfolios. Argues that environmental problems are not exclusive to the uses associated with heavy industrial/ owner‐occupied type property. Environmental problems can also stem from the current occupational activities of B1, B2 and B8 industrial units. Consequently, outlines the information sources and tools that are available to assess this type of environmental risk. It also examines how off‐site environmental losses suffered by a tenant could impact on the investment performance of property. Concludes by urging those involved in assessing the risks associated with property investment, particularly at the stock selection level, to take account of such environmental issues.

Details

Journal of Property Finance, vol. 5 no. 4
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 0958-868X

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 7 March 2016

Ashish Gupta and Piyush Tiwari

There is significant research related to risk and uncertainty in valuation. Risk, in valuation, is mostly communicated to investors in qualitative terms. There has been some…

2480

Abstract

Purpose

There is significant research related to risk and uncertainty in valuation. Risk, in valuation, is mostly communicated to investors in qualitative terms. There has been some research in developed markets to communicate risk quantitatively to clients through property risk scores. However there is paucity of research on communicating risk in emerging markets where the valuation profession is still evolving. Indian property markets have emerged as one the fastest growing markets in the last five years. With the growth in Indian economy and the emergence of indirect property investment market, it is likely that domestic and international passive investors would play an important role in property investment in India. Valuation of assets in portfolio and communication of risk in appropriate way would gain utmost importance. The paper aims to discuss these issues.

Design/methodology/approach

This study uses analytical hierarchical process method to quantitatively assess risk to value for office properties in India. This study focuses on identifying principal elements of risk as perceived by key market players in an emerging economy like India. It identifies fundamentals of market, property and lease to determine valuation risk. It may be highlighted here that the risk that this paper is analysing is not the risk that is associated with the valuation for valuer who is conducting valuation but systematic and non-systematic risk associated with property. A two round of survey has been conducted to find various principal elements of valuation risk and sub criteria’s through an online survey conducted through survey monkey.

Findings

The study found that in an emerging market like India there are limited exit option for developers and investors due to absence of exit vehicle like REITs for office property. Principal element of risk considered is the resale of property, i.e. exit from an investment, followed by tenant and lease specific elements to be other principal elements of risk in the order tenant risk, lock-in duration, functional obsolescence and lease duration. Other market risks like yield movement, rental movement, occupier demand were not considered principal elements of risk.

Research limitations/implications

The study could be expanded further by increasing the sample size and as this study demonstrates present market sentiments. Study needs to be updated periodically to retain its practical importance and relevance to the industry.

Practical implications

Findings of this study could be used by valuers and investors investing in office properties in India.

Originality/value

This is the first paper on risk scoring for commercial properties in the Indian market. It has high importance as Indian market for office space will grow significantly with introduction of REITs.

Details

Journal of Property Investment & Finance, vol. 34 no. 2
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1463-578X

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 26 September 2008

David Lorenz and Thomas Lützkendorf

The purpose of this paper is to explain the rationale for integrating sustainability issues into property valuation theory and practice and to provide initial suggestions for…

14514

Abstract

Purpose

The purpose of this paper is to explain the rationale for integrating sustainability issues into property valuation theory and practice and to provide initial suggestions for valuers on how to account for sustainability issues within valuation reports.

Design/methodology/approach

The authors emphasise the key role of valuation professionals and of the valuation process itself in achieving a broader market penetration of sustainable construction. It is explained that, on the one hand, property valuation represents the major mechanism to align economic return with environmental and social performance of property assets, and thus to express and communicate the advantages and benefits of sustainable buildings. On the other hand, it is explained that gradual changes in market participants' perceptions in favour of sustainable buildings must be reflected within the property valuation and associated risk assessment process (otherwise valuers would produce misleading price estimates). The authors identify both the financial benefits and risk reduction potential of sustainable design as well as valuation input parameters that would allow these benefits to be reflected in property price estimates.

Findings

The authors show that the main reasons for immediately and rigorously integrating sustainability issues into property valuation are as follows: more sustainable patterns of behaviour are urgently necessary to sustain the viability of the Earth's ecosystems; a huge untapped market potential exists for sustainable property investment products and consulting services; sustainable buildings clearly outperform their conventional competitors in all relevant areas (i.e. environmentally, socially and financially); neglecting the benefits of sustainable design leads to distorted price estimates; and reflecting sustainability issues in property price estimates is already possible and the validity of this decision depends solely on the valuer's capability and sophistication to explain and justify his/her assumptions within the valuation report. However, it is also shown that efforts need to be undertaken to improve the description of property assets in transaction databases in order to provide the informational databases necessary to empirically underpin a valuer's decision to assign a “valuation bonus” to a sustainable building or a “valuation reduction” to an unsustainable/conventional one.

Originality/value

The paper postulates that valuation reports should be extended to include the following additional elements: a clear description of the availability of certain sustainability‐related property characteristics and attributes; a statement of the valuer's opinion about the benefits of these characteristics and attributes; and a statement of the valuer's opinion about the impact of these benefits and/or risks on property value.

Details

Journal of Property Investment & Finance, vol. 26 no. 6
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1463-578X

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 1 September 2000

Index by subjects, compiled by K.G.B. Bakewell covering the following journals: Facilities Volumes 8‐17; Journal of Property Investment & Finance Volumes 8‐17; Property Management…

27438

Abstract

Index by subjects, compiled by K.G.B. Bakewell covering the following journals: Facilities Volumes 8‐17; Journal of Property Investment & Finance Volumes 8‐17; Property Management Volumes 8‐17; Structural Survey Volumes 8‐17.

Details

Facilities, vol. 18 no. 9
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 0263-2772

Article
Publication date: 1 March 2001

K.G.B. Bakewell

Compiled by K.G.B. Bakewell covering the following journals published by MCB University Press: Facilities Volumes 8‐18; Journal of Property Investment & Finance Volumes 8‐18;…

18722

Abstract

Compiled by K.G.B. Bakewell covering the following journals published by MCB University Press: Facilities Volumes 8‐18; Journal of Property Investment & Finance Volumes 8‐18; Property Management Volumes 8‐18; Structural Survey Volumes 8‐18.

Details

Structural Survey, vol. 19 no. 3
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 0263-080X

Article
Publication date: 6 February 2017

Francesco Tajani and Pierluigi Morano

The purpose of this paper is to propose a decision-support methodology for public and private subjects involved in the enhancement of public properties. In particular, with…

Abstract

Purpose

The purpose of this paper is to propose a decision-support methodology for public and private subjects involved in the enhancement of public properties. In particular, with reference to cases in which the disused public property can be sold and the range of functions that define the highest and best use of the conversion was identified, the developed model allows for the assessment of the financial feasibility of the initiatives, in relation to the corresponding investment risks.

Design/methodology/approach

The proposed model integrates the mathematical logic of goal programming for the evaluation of the financial conveniences of the parties (public and private) involved in the enhancement of a public property with statistical approaches (value at risk+exponentially weighted moving average) so as to determine the investment risk of the private investor. The application of the model to a real case study highlighted the potentialities of the proposed methodology.

Findings

The model allows to determine: the optimal mix of intended uses to be realized in the public property under analysis; the fair value of the public property for the parties involved in the transaction; and the Pareto-optimal frontier of the expected profits, as a function of the risk appetite of the private investor.

Practical implications

The defined model responds to the growing international interest in the enhancement of public buildings, satisfies the objectives of the substantial reduction of soil sealing and urban sustainability, stimulates the urban regeneration of deprived areas of the cities through the reactivation of large buildings that have been disused or underused for too long.

Originality/value

The present research allows to provide effective evaluation tools capable of outlining the opportunities of redevelopment initiatives and examines the risk factors that often invalidate the initial forecasts of the private entrepreneur and/or stop the activation of investments.

Details

Journal of Property Investment & Finance, vol. 35 no. 1
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1463-578X

Keywords

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