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Existing research on innovation has mainly focused on how to promote technological innovation in megaprojects and management innovation (MI) in megaprojects is still an unknown research field. The purposes of this study are to examine the effect of MI on megaproject performance and how the top management team (TMT) regulatory focus affects the use of MI in projects. At the same time, the moderating effects of project uncertainties are also tested.

On the basis of an explorative/exploitative ambidextrous analysis framework, this study divides MI into two dimensions: explorative and exploitative MI, and integrates the theoretical perspectives of the TMT regulatory focus and project uncertainties into a research model. Taking 314 responses from megaprojects’ TMTs in China as research data, this study empirically tests the above model.

Results show that exploratory MI has a U-shaped relationship with megaproject performance; whereas exploitative MI has an inverted U-shaped relationship with megaproject performance. The TMT promotion focus has a positive effect on exploratory and exploitative MI; and the TMT prevention focus has a negative effect on exploratory MI but has a positive effect on exploitative MI. Project uncertainties have a positive moderating effect on the positive relationship between TMT promotion focus and exploratory MI, whereas it has a negative moderating effect on the negative relationship between the TMT prevention focus and exploratory MI.

By empirically measuring the relationship between two types of MIs and megaproject performance, this study clarifies the differential mechanism of the effect of different MIs on megaproject performance. This study also examines the MI of megaprojects from the perspective of the TMT regulatory focus and expounds how changes in uncertainties affect the relationship between the TMT regulatory focus and MI.

This study examines how project uncertainties (environmental uncertainty and participant uncertainty) affect guanxi and contractual governance and assesses the mediating role of guanxi governance between project uncertainty and contractual governance.

Data were collected in two stages from Chinese contractors. First, in-depth interviews were conducted with nine construction engineering project practitioners in different contracts as a pilot for questionnaire designing. Second, a cross-sectional questionnaire survey was conducted with professionals and practitioners of construction enterprises to collect primary data. Partial least squares structural equation modeling (PLS-SEM) was used to test seven hypotheses based on data collected from 198 respondents.

Project environmental uncertainty promotes the use of guanxi governance, while project participant uncertainty hinders it; the relationship between both types of uncertainty and contractual governance is the same as with guanxi governance. Furthermore, guanxi governance promotes contractual governance and partially mediates project environmental uncertainty and contractual governance and a complete mediating role between project participant uncertainty and contractual governance.

As the interviewed samples are mainly from China, the study should be replicated using large representative samples from East Asian countries, such as Japan and South Korea, to gain a more comprehensive understanding of the influence of guanxi governance. Further, while the internal consistency reliability and convergent validity of the questionnaire data in this study align with the standards, a larger sample size would improve the reliability and validity of the research results and better represent the overall work situation of contractors, owners and public policymakers.

The results provide insights into project governance research and have implications for construction practitioners in deploying governance-related resources.

Project managers bear the responsibility of selecting and developing resource scheduling methods that align with project requirements and organizational circumstances. This study focuses on resource-constrained project scheduling in multi-project environments. The research simplifies the problem by adopting a single-project perspective using gain coefficients.

It employs uncertainty theory and multi-objective programming to construct a model. The optimal solution is identified using Matlab, while LINGO determines satisfactory alternatives. By combining these methods and considering actual construction project situations, a compromise solution closely approximating the optimal one is derived.

The study provides fresh insights into modeling and resolving resource-constrained project scheduling issues, supported by real-world examples that effectively illustrate its practical significance.

The research highlights three main contributions: effective resource utilization, project prioritization and conflict management, and addressing uncertainty. It offers decision support for project managers to balance resource allocation, resolve conflicts, and adapt to changing project demands.

To propose a new investment-income valuation model by real options approach (ROA) for old community renewal (OCR) projects, which could help the government attract private capital's participation.

The new model is proposed by identifying the types of options private capital has in the OCR project, selecting the option model most suitable for private capital investment decisions, improving the valuation model through the triangular fuzzy numbers to take into account the uncertainty and flexibility, and demonstrating the feasibility of the calculation model through an actual OCR project case.

The new model can valuate OCR projects more accurately based on considering uncertainty and flexibility, compared with conventional methods that often underestimate the value of OCR projects.

The investment-income of OCR projects shall be re-valuated from the lens of real options, which could help reveal more real benefits beyond the capital growth of OCR projects, enable the government to attract private capital's investment in OCR, and alleviate government fiscal pressure.

The proposed OCR-oriented investment-income valuation model systematically analyzes the applicability of real option value (ROV) to OCR projects, innovatively integrates the ROV and the net present value (NPV) as expanded net present value (ENPV), and accurately evaluate real benefits in comparison with existing models. Furthermore, the newly proposed model holds the potential to be transferred to various social welfare projects as a tool to attract private capital's participation.

This paper aims to develop an algorithm to study the impact of dynamic resource disruption on project makespan and provide a suitable resource disruption ratio for various complex industrial and emergency projects.

This paper addresses the RCPSP in dynamic environments, which assumes resources will be disrupted randomly, that is, the information about resource disruption is not known in advance. To this end, a reactive scheduling model is proposed for the case of random dynamic disruptions of resources. To solve the reactive scheduling model, a hybrid genetic algorithm with a variable neighborhood search is proposed.

The results obtained on the PSLIB instances prove the performance advantage of the algorithm; through sensitivity analysis, it can be obtained, the project makespan increases exponentially as the number of disruptions increase. Furthermore, if more than 50% of the project's resources are randomly disrupted, the project makespan will be significantly impacted.

The paper focuses on the impact of dynamic resource disruptions on project makespan. Few studies have considered stochastic, dynamic resource uncertainty. In addition, this research proposes a reasonable scheduling algorithm for the research problem, and the conclusions drawn from the research provide decision support for project managers.

Earned value management (EVM)–based models for estimating project actual duration (AD) and cost at completion using various methods are continuously developed to improve the accuracy and actualization of predicted values. This study primarily aimed to examine natural gradient boosting (NGBoost-2020) with the classification and regression trees (CART) base model (base learner). To the best of the authors' knowledge, this concept has never been applied to EVM AD forecasting problem. Consequently, the authors compared this method to the single K-nearest neighbor (KNN) method, the ensemble method of extreme gradient boosting (XGBoost-2016) with the CART base model and the optimal equation of EVM, the earned schedule (ES) equation with the performance factor equal to 1 (ES1). The paper also sought to determine the extent to which the World Bank's two legal factors affect countries and how the two legal causes of delay (related to institutional flaws) influence AD prediction models.

In this paper, data from 30 construction projects of various building types in Iran, Pakistan, India, Turkey, Malaysia and Nigeria (due to the high number of delayed projects and the detrimental effects of these delays in these countries) were used to develop three models. The target variable of the models was a dimensionless output, the ratio of estimated duration to completion (ETC(t)) to planned duration (PD). Furthermore, 426 tracking periods were used to build the three models, with 353 samples and 23 projects in the training set, 73 patterns (17% of the total) and six projects (21% of the total) in the testing set. Furthermore, 17 dimensionless input variables were used, including ten variables based on the main variables and performance indices of EVM and several other variables detailed in the study. The three models were subsequently created using Python and several GitHub-hosted codes.

For the testing set of the optimal model (NGBoost), the better percentage mean (better%) of the prediction error (based on projects with a lower error percentage) of the NGBoost compared to two KNN and ES1 single models, as well as the total mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) and mean lags (MeLa) (indicating model stability) were 100, 83.33, 5.62 and 3.17%, respectively. Notably, the total MAPE and MeLa for the NGBoost model testing set, which had ten EVM-based input variables, were 6.74 and 5.20%, respectively. The ensemble artificial intelligence (AI) models exhibited a much lower MAPE than ES1. Additionally, ES1 was less stable in prediction than NGBoost. The possibility of excessive and unusual MAPE and MeLa values occurred only in the two single models. However, on some data sets, ES1 outperformed AI models. NGBoost also outperformed other models, especially single models for most developing countries, and was more accurate than previously presented optimized models. In addition, sensitivity analysis was conducted on the NGBoost predicted outputs of 30 projects using the SHapley Additive exPlanations (SHAP) method. All variables demonstrated an effect on ETC(t)/PD. The results revealed that the most influential input variables in order of importance were actual time (AT) to PD, regulatory quality (RQ), earned duration (ED) to PD, schedule cost index (SCI), planned complete percentage, rule of law (RL), actual complete percentage (ACP) and ETC(t) of the ES optimal equation to PD. The probabilistic hybrid model was selected based on the outputs predicted by the NGBoost and XGBoost models and the MAPE values from three AI models. The 95% prediction interval of the NGBoost–XGBoost model revealed that 96.10 and 98.60% of the actual output values of the testing and training sets are within this interval, respectively.

Due to the use of projects performed in different countries, it was not possible to distribute the questionnaire to the managers and stakeholders of 30 projects in six developing countries. Due to the low number of EVM-based projects in various references, it was unfeasible to utilize other types of projects. Future prospects include evaluating the accuracy and stability of NGBoost for timely and non-fluctuating projects (mostly in developed countries), considering a greater number of legal/institutional variables as input, using legal/institutional/internal/inflation inputs for complex projects with extremely high uncertainty (such as bridge and road construction) and integrating these inputs and NGBoost with new technologies (such as blockchain, radio frequency identification (RFID) systems, building information modeling (BIM) and Internet of things (IoT)).

The legal/intuitive recommendations made to governments are strict control of prices, adequate supervision, removal of additional rules, removal of unfair regulations, clarification of the future trend of a law change, strict monitoring of property rights, simplification of the processes for obtaining permits and elimination of unnecessary changes particularly in developing countries and at the onset of irregular projects with limited information and numerous uncertainties. Furthermore, the managers and stakeholders of this group of projects were informed of the significance of seven construction variables (institutional/legal external risks, internal factors and inflation) at an early stage, using time series (dynamic) models to predict AD, accurate calculation of progress percentage variables, the effectiveness of building type in non-residential projects, regular updating inflation during implementation, effectiveness of employer type in the early stage of public projects in addition to the late stage of private projects, and allocating reserve duration (buffer) in order to respond to institutional/legal risks.

Ensemble methods were optimized in 70% of references. To the authors' knowledge, NGBoost from the set of ensemble methods was not used to estimate construction project duration and delays. NGBoost is an effective method for considering uncertainties in irregular projects and is often implemented in developing countries. Furthermore, AD estimation models do fail to incorporate RQ and RL from the World Bank's worldwide governance indicators (WGI) as risk-based inputs. In addition, the various WGI, EVM and inflation variables are not combined with substantial degrees of delay institutional risks as inputs. Consequently, due to the existence of critical and complex risks in different countries, it is vital to consider legal and institutional factors. This is especially recommended if an in-depth, accurate and reality-based method like SHAP is used for analysis.

A variety of buffer allocation methods exist to distribute an aggregated time buffer among project activities. However, these methods do not pay simultaneous attention to two key attributes of disruptive events that may occur during the construction phase: probability and impact. This paper fills this research gap by developing a buffer allocation method that takes into account the synergistic impact of these two attributes on project activities.

This paper develops a three-step method, calculating the probability that project activities are disrupted in the first step, followed by measuring the potential impact of disruption on project activities, and then proposing a risk-informed buffer allocation index by simultaneously integrating probability and impact outputs from the first two steps.

The proposed method provides more accurate results by sidestepping the shortcomings of conventional fuzzy-based and simulation-based methods that are purely based on expert judgments or historical precedence. Further, the paper provides decision-makers with a buffer allocation method that helps in developing cost-effective buffering and backup strategies by prioritizing project activities and their required resources.

This paper develops a risk-informed buffer allocation method that differs from those already available. The simultaneous pursuit of the probability and impact of disruptions distinguishes our method from conventional buffer allocation methods. Further, this paper intertwines the research domains of complexity science and construction management by performing centrality analysis and incorporating a key attribute of project complexity (i.e. the interconnectedness between project activities) into the process for buffer allocation.

Organizations have always faced the possibility of disruptions. Traditional approaches, such as shifting risks through insurance or improving organizational resiliency, view disruptions as threats. This study aims to propose a new perspective where disruptions can also be opportunities. By adopting project portfolio management (PPM), organizations can develop proactive capabilities to manage uncertainty and prepare to exploit future disruptions.

Drawing on publicly available research reports, company reports, professional standards and press reports, this study describes key features of PPM and provides detailed practical guidance on how to apply PPM in daily operations, especially in preparation for the next disruption.

The key steps in applying PPM in daily operations are: align portfolios and projects with strategic goals and objectives; establish a robust governance framework; optimize resource capability and capacity; build and implement appropriate implementation methodologies; continuously monitor, review and optimize the project portfolio; and develop a culture that embraces risks, innovation and adaptability.

This research has several limitations and implications. On limitations, the study was constrained by publicly available data, an in-depth interview with a consulting firm and a survey based on convenient sampling. These limitations will impact the generalizability of the findings. On implications, this paper shows how organizations can prepare for future disruptions by applying PPM. There are other ways to prepare for the unpredictable future, and further research is needed to explore other methods.

The results of this study have important practical implications for all organizations and in all sectors. Major disruptions are matters of “when,” not “how,” and responsible organizations need to pay attention. Based on the PPM discipline, this research provides an approach for business executives and project management practitioners to tackle this challenge. Furthermore, portfolio managers should use this information to promote and advocate for more disciplined planning to confront the uncertain future.

The findings of this paper carry important social implications. As the recent events showed the vastness of disruptions, from extreme heat to fires in Maui, sitting idly and waiting passively for an unpredictable future is not an option. This paper advocates the need for more awareness and preparation for future disruption by applying PPM. Furthermore, this research provides concrete guidelines for organizations and practitioners to consider as they confront the unknown. Additional research should investigate other effective strategies to meet the challenges of an uncertain and volatile future.

This study offers practical steps on how organizations may manage not only to survive but also to thrive in an uncertain and volatile world.

With the continuous improvement of public–private partnership (PPP) projects, the participants' value creation goals are not only limited to achieving the basic performance objectives but also to realising value added. However, the effect of traditional contract management on realising the value creation objectives of PPP projects is limited. According to the view of multifunctional contract, joint-contract functions that integrate contract control and flexibility are likely to be effective in enhancing the value creation of PPP projects. This study aims to explore the effects of joint-contract functions on PPP project value creation and relevant influencing mechanism by investigating the mediating effect of in-role behaviour and extra-role behaviour.

After collecting 258 valid questionnaires from PPP professionals in China, this study used structural equation modelling to validate the hypotheses.

Contract control and flexibility can improve PPP project value creation. Specifically, contract control improves the achievement of the basic contract objectives of PPP projects, whereas contract flexibility enhances the achievement of the value-added of PPP projects. Moreover, only in-role behaviour mediates the effect of contract control on value creation. In addition, the mediating effect of extra-role behaviour on the impact of contract flexibility on value creation is stronger than that of in-role behaviour. The mediating effect of in- and extra-role behaviour is mainly reflected in the realisation of basic and value-added performance, respectively.

The findings of this study can help realise value creation in three ways. Firstly, new perspectives for PPP project value creation should be proposed by combining the improvement of contract objectives and the realisation of the participants' implicit demands. Secondly, the effects of different contract functions on value creation should be analysed instead of a single dimension of contractual governance. Thirdly, the mediating effects of different types of cooperation behaviour that may influence the relationship between contractual governance and value creation should be evaluated.

This study verifies the impacts of different contract functions on PPP project value creation. In addition, cooperative behaviour is embedded as a mediating variable, and the mediated transmission path from contract function to cooperative behaviour and further to PPP project value creation is systematically analysed.

Inter-organizational collaboration is the organizational guarantee and key link to achieve the goals of megaproject management. Project governance has always played an important role in the construction of megaprojects, but the relationship between project governance and organizational collaboration is unclear. The purpose of this study is to explore the role paths of different project governance mechanisms in influencing the collaborative behaviors of stakeholders and collaborative performance and to elucidate the mechanism of project governance on inter-organizational collaboration.

A conceptual framework was developed based on a comprehensive literature review, termed the structural equation model (SEM). The hypotheses of the model were tested based on data obtained from a questionnaire survey of 235 experts with experience in megaprojects within the construction industry in China.

The results show that project governance positively contributes to the collaborative behavior of megaproject stakeholders and the collaborative performance of the project team. Collaborative behavior acts as a partial mediator between project governance and the collaborative performance of the megaproject inter-organization alliance. The complexity of the project modulates the relationship between the governance mechanism of the project and the collaborative behavior of the stakeholders, which affects the collaborative performance of the megaproject inter-organization alliance.

The findings provide theoretical and practical implications for promoting positive collaborative behavior among stakeholders in megaproject selection and improving the collaborative performance of megaproject inter-organization alliances.