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To proactively draw efficient maintenance plans, road agencies should be able to forecast main road distress parameters, such as cracking, rutting, deflection and International Roughness Index (IRI). Nonetheless, the behavior of those parameters throughout pavement life cycles is associated with high uncertainty, resulting from various interrelated factors that fluctuate over time. This study aims to propose the use of dynamic Bayesian belief networks for the development of time-series prediction models to probabilistically forecast road distress parameters.

While Bayesian belief network (BBN) has the merit of capturing uncertainty associated with variables in a domain, dynamic BBNs, in particular, are deemed ideal for forecasting road distress over time due to its Markovian and invariant transition probability properties. Four dynamic BBN models are developed to represent rutting, deflection, cracking and IRI, using pavement data collected from 32 major road sections in the United Arab Emirates between 2013 and 2019. Those models are based on several factors affecting pavement deterioration, which are classified into three categories traffic factors, environmental factors and road-specific factors.

The four developed performance prediction models achieved an overall precision and reliability rate of over 80%.

The proposed approach provides flexibility to illustrate road conditions under various scenarios, which is beneficial for pavement maintainers in obtaining a realistic representation of expected future road conditions, where maintenance efforts could be prioritized and optimized.

This bibliometric study provides an overview of research related to digital transformation (DT) in the tourism industry from 2013 to 2022. The goals of the research are as follows: (1) to identify the development of academic papers related to DT in the tourism industry, (2) to analyze dominant research topics and the development of research interest and research impact over time and (3) to analyze the change in research topics during the pandemic.

In this study, the authors processed 3,683 papers retrieved from the Web of Science and Scopus. The authors performed different types of bibliometric analyses to identify the development of papers related to DT in the tourism industry. To reveal latent topics, the authors implemented topic modeling based on latent Dirichlet allocation with Gibbs sampling.

The authors identified eight topics related to DT in the tourism industry: City and urban planning, Social media, Data analytics, Sustainable and economic development, Technology-based experience and interaction, Cultural heritage, Digital destination marketing and Smart tourism management. The authors also identified seven topics related to DT in the tourism industry during the Covid-19 pandemic; the largest ones are smart analytics, marketing strategies and sustainability.

To identify research topics and their development over time, the authors applied a novel methodological approach – a smart literature review. This machine learning approach is able to analyze a huge amount of documents. At the same time, it can also identify topics that would remain unrevealed by a standard bibliometric analysis.

Logistical facility location decisions can make a crucial difference in the success or failure of a company. Geographical Information Systems (GIS) have recently become a very popular decision support system to help deal with facility location problems. However, until recently, GIS methodologies have not been fully embraced as a way to deal with new facility location problems in business logistics. This research makes a framework for categorizing empirical facility location problems based on the intensity of the involvement of GIS methodologies in decision making. This framework was built by analyzing facility location models and GIS methodologies. The research results revealed the depth of the embracement of GIS methodologies in logistics for determining new facility location decisions. In the new facility location decisions, spatial data inputs are almost always coupled with the visualization of the problems and solutions. However, the usage of GIS capability solely (i.e. suitability analysis) for problem solving has not been embraced at the same level. In most cases, the suitability analysis is used together with special optimization models for choosing among the multiple alternatives.

The purpose of this paper is to answer the following two questions: Will Saudi Arabia get older? Will its pension system be sustainable?

The methodology/approach is to forecast KSA’s population with wavelet analysis combined with the Burg model which fits a pth order autoregressive model to the input signal by minimizing (least squares) the forward and backward prediction errors while constraining the autoregressive parameters to satisfy the Levinson-Durbin recursion, then relies on an infinite impulse response prediction error filter.

Spectral analysis projections of Saudi age groups are more optimistic than the Bayesian probabilistic model sponsored by the United Nations Population Division: Saudi Arabia will not get older as fast as projected by the United Nations model. The KSA’s pension system will stay sustainable based on spectral analysis, whereas it will not based on the U.N. model.

Spectral analysis will provide better insight and understanding of population dynamics for Saudi government policymakers, as well as economic, health and pension planners.

This study aimed to assess the potential of the Clinical Dementia Rating (CDR) Scale in the prognosis of dementia in elderly subjects.

Dementia staging severity is clinically an essential task, so the authors used machine learning (ML) on the magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) features to locate and study the impact of various MR readings onto the classification of demented and nondemented patients. The authors used cross-sectional MRI data in this study. The designed ML approach established the role of CDR in the prognosis of inflicted and normal patients. Moreover, the pattern analysis indicated CDR as a strong cohort amongst the various attributes, with CDR to have a significant value of p < 0.01. The authors employed 20 ML classifiers.

The mean prediction accuracy varied with the various ML classifier used, with the bagging classifier (random forest as a base estimator) achieving the highest (93.67%). A series of ML analyses demonstrated that the model including the CDR score had better prediction accuracy and other related performance metrics.

The results suggest that the CDR score, a simple clinical measure, can be used in real community settings. It can be used to predict dementia progression with ML modeling.

This paper aims to examine the integration of lateral transshipment and road vulnerability into the humanitarian relief chain in light of affected area priority to address equitable distribution and assess the impact of various parameters on the total average inflated distance traveled per relief item.

After identifying comprehensive critical criteria and subcriteria, a hybrid multi-criteria decision-making framework was applied to obtain the demand points’ weight and ranking in a real-life earthquake scenario. Direct shipment and lateral transshipment models were then presented and compared. The developed mathematical models are formulated as mixed-integer programming models, considering facility location, inventory prepositioning, road vulnerability and quantity of lateral transshipment.

The study found that the use of prioritization criteria and subcriteria, in conjunction with lateral transshipment and road vulnerability, resulted in a more equitable distribution of relief items by reducing the total average inflated distance traveled per relief item.

To the best of the authors’ knowledge, this study is one of the first research on equity in humanitarian response through prioritization of demand points. It also bridges the gap between two areas that are typically treated separately: multi-criteria decision-making and humanitarian logistics.

This is the first scholarly work in Shiraz focused on the equitable distribution system by prioritization of demand points and assigning relief items to them after the occurrence of a medium-scale earthquake scenario considering lateral transshipment in the upper echelon.

The paper clarifies how to prioritize demand points to promote equity in humanitarian logistics when the authors have faced multiple factors (i.e. location of relief distribution centers, inventory level, distance, lateral transshipment and road vulnerability) simultaneously.

In order to solve the problems faced by First Order Reliability Method (FORM) and First Order Saddlepoint Approximation (FOSA) in structural reliability optimization, this paper aims to propose a new Reliability-based Design Optimization (RBDO) strategy for offshore engineering structures based on Original Probabilistic Model (OPM) decoupling strategy. The application of this innovative technique to other maritime structures has the potential to substantially improve their design process by optimizing cost and enhancing structural reliability.

In the strategy proposed by this paper, sequential optimization and reliability assessment method and surrogate model are used to improve the efficiency for solving RBDO. The strategy is applied to the analysis of two marine engineering structure cases of ship cargo hold structure and frame ring of underwater skirt pile gripper. The effectiveness of the method is proved by comparing the original design and the optimized results.

In this paper, the proposed new RBDO strategy is used to optimize the design of the ship cargo hold structure and the frame ring of the underwater skirt pile gripper. According to the results obtained, compared with the original design, the structure of optimization design has better reliability and stability, and reduces the risk of failure. This optimization can also better balance the relationship between performance and cost. Therefore, it is recommended for related RBDO problems in the field of marine engineering.

In view of the limitations of FORM and FOSA that may produce multiple MPPs for a single performance function, the new RBDO strategy proposed in this study provides valuable insights and robust methods for the optimization design of offshore engineering structures. It emphasizes the importance of combining advanced MPP search technology and integrating SORA and surrogate models to achieve more economical and reliable design.

On shield tunnel construction (STC) site, human error is widely recognized as essential to accident. It is necessary to explain which factors lead to human error and how these factors can influence human performance. Human reliability analysis supports such necessity through modeling the performance shaping factors (PSFs). The purpose of this paper is to establish and validate a PSF taxonomy for the STC context.

The approach taken in this study mainly consists of three steps. First, a description of the STC context is proposed through the analysis of the STC context. Second, the literature which stretch across the PSF methodologies, cognitive psychology and human factors of STC and other construction industries are reviewed to develop an initial set of PSFs. Finally, a final PSF set is modified and validated based on STC task analysis and STC accidents cases.

The PSF taxonomy constituted by 4 main components, 4 hierarchies and 85 PSFs is established for human behavior modeling and simulation under the STC context. Furthermore, by comparing and evaluating the performance of STC PSF and existing PSF studies, the proposed PSF taxonomy meets the requirement for qualitative and quantitative analysis.

The PSF taxonomy can provide a basis and support for human behavior modeling and simulation under the STC context. Integrating PSFs into a behavior simulation model provides a more realistic and integrated assessment of human error by manifesting the influence of each PSFs on the cognitive processes. The simulation results can suggest concrete points for the improvement of STC safety management.

This paper develops a taxonomy of PSFs that addresses the various unique influences of the STC context on human behaviors. The harsh underground working conditions and diverse resources of system information are identified as key characteristics of the STC context. Furthermore, the PSF taxonomy can be integrated into a human cognitive behavior model to predict the worker’s behavior on STC site in future work.

Internet + and Electronic Business in China is a comprehensive resource that provides insight and analysis into E-commerce in China and how it has revolutionized and continues to revolutionize business and society. Split into four distinct sections, the book first lays out the theoretical foundations and fundamental concepts of E-Business before moving on to look at internet+ innovation models and their applications in different industries such as agriculture, finance and commerce. The book then provides a comprehensive analysis of E-business platforms and their applications in China before finishing with four comprehensive case studies of major E-business projects, providing readers with successful examples of implementing E-Business entrepreneurship projects.

Internet + and Electronic Business in China is a comprehensive resource that provides insights and analysis into how E-commerce has revolutionized and continues to revolutionize business and society in China.