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Article
Publication date: 18 April 2024

Anton Salov

The purpose of this study is to reveal the dynamics of house prices and sales in spatial and temporal dimensions across British regions.

Abstract

Purpose

The purpose of this study is to reveal the dynamics of house prices and sales in spatial and temporal dimensions across British regions.

Design/methodology/approach

This paper incorporates two empirical approaches to describe the behaviour of property prices across British regions. The models are applied to two different data sets. The first empirical approach is to apply the price diffusion model proposed by Holly et al. (2011) to the UK house price index data set. The second empirical approach is to apply a bivariate global vector autoregression model without a time trend to house prices and transaction volumes retrieved from the nationwide building society.

Findings

Identifying shocks to London house prices in the GVAR model, based on the generalized impulse response functions framework, I find some heterogeneity in responses to house price changes; for example, South East England responds stronger than the remaining provincial regions. The main pattern detected in responses and characteristic for each region is the fairly rapid fading of the shock. The spatial-temporal diffusion model demonstrates the presence of a ripple effect: a shock emanating from London is dispersed contemporaneously and spatially to other regions, affecting prices in nondominant regions with a delay.

Originality/value

The main contribution of this work is the betterment in understanding how house price changes move across regions and time within a UK context.

Details

International Journal of Housing Markets and Analysis, vol. ahead-of-print no. ahead-of-print
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1753-8270

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 10 May 2024

Danai Protopsalti and Alexandros Skouralis

Since 1966, the Severn crossing has been connecting England and Wales. In January 2018, its ownership returned to the UK Government, and this marked the start of a toll-free…

Abstract

Purpose

Since 1966, the Severn crossing has been connecting England and Wales. In January 2018, its ownership returned to the UK Government, and this marked the start of a toll-free journey across the two countries and made commuting between the regions more affordable. In this paper, we examine the impact of the toll removal on the property market.

Design/methodology/approach

We employ property-level data from the Land Registry and a difference-in-differences (DiD) empirical model for the periods 2016–2018 and 2019–2021 to capture the pre- and post-toll removal dynamics. The DiD estimation allows us to examine the causal relationship between policy changes and property prices.

Findings

Our findings suggest that property prices in Newport and Monmouthshire (South East Wales) are positively affected by the policy, which results in a statistically significant increase of 5.8% more than those located in the South West England (Bristol and South Gloucestershire) region in the period 2019–2021. The impact can reach up to 13.1% for properties located in a 10 km radius of the bridge. The results indicate that the toll removal enables the ripple effect across the two markets by reducing commuting costs.

Originality/value

This is the first paper that examines the Severn Crossing case study. Its contribution is significant since we provide empirical evidence on how reduced transportation costs increase property prices in the lowest income region and have the opposite effect on the area with higher incomes and economic activity levels.

Details

Journal of European Real Estate Research, vol. ahead-of-print no. ahead-of-print
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1753-9269

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 19 February 2024

Benjamin Kwakye and Tze-Haw Chan

Market sentiment has shown to influence housing prices in the global north, but in emerging economies, the nexus is rare to chance on in the current state of science for policy…

Abstract

Purpose

Market sentiment has shown to influence housing prices in the global north, but in emerging economies, the nexus is rare to chance on in the current state of science for policy direction. More importantly in the recent decade where policymakers are yet to conclude on the myriad of factors confronting the housing market in sub-Saharan Africa inhibiting affordability. This paper therefore examines the impact of market sentiment on house prices in South Africa.

Design/methodology/approach

The study used the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) approach with quarterly data spanning from 2005Q1 to 2020Q4.

Findings

In all, it was established that market sentiment plays a minimal role in the property market in South Africa. But there was enough evidence of cointegration from the bound test between sentiment and house prices. Nevertheless, the lag values of sentiment pointed to a rise in house prices. Exchange rate volatilities and inflation had a statistically significant effect on prices in both the long and short term, respectively.

Research limitations/implications

Policymakers could still monitor market sentiment in the housing market due to the strong chemistry between house prices and sentiment, as evidenced from the bound test, but focus on economic fundamentals as the main policy tool for house price reduction.

Originality/value

The findings and the creation of the sentiment index make an invaluable contribution to the paper and add to the paucity of literature on the study of market sentiment in the housing market.

Details

International Journal of Housing Markets and Analysis, vol. ahead-of-print no. ahead-of-print
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1753-8270

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 22 March 2024

Sanaz Khalaj Rahimi and Donya Rahmani

The study aims to optimize truck routes by minimizing social and economic costs. It introduces a strategy involving diverse drones and their potential for reusing at DNs based on…

32

Abstract

Purpose

The study aims to optimize truck routes by minimizing social and economic costs. It introduces a strategy involving diverse drones and their potential for reusing at DNs based on flight range. In HTDRP-DC, trucks can select and transport various drones to LDs to reduce deprivation time. This study estimates the nonlinear deprivation cost function using a linear two-piece-wise function, leading to MILP formulations. A heuristic-based Benders Decomposition approach is implemented to address medium and large instances. Valid inequalities and a heuristic method enhance convergence boundaries, ensuring an efficient solution methodology.

Design/methodology/approach

Research has yet to address critical factors in disaster logistics: minimizing the social and economic costs simultaneously and using drones in relief distribution; deprivation as a social cost measures the human suffering from a shortage of relief supplies. The proposed hybrid truck-drone routing problem minimizing deprivation cost (HTDRP-DC) involves distributing relief supplies to dispersed demand nodes with undamaged (LDs) or damaged (DNs) access roads, utilizing multiple trucks and diverse drones. A Benders Decomposition approach is enhanced by accelerating techniques.

Findings

Incorporating deprivation and economic costs results in selecting optimal routes, effectively reducing the time required to assist affected areas. Additionally, employing various drone types and their reuse in damaged nodes reduces deprivation time and associated deprivation costs. The study employs valid inequalities and the heuristic method to solve the master problem, substantially reducing computational time and iterations compared to GAMS and classical Benders Decomposition Algorithm. The proposed heuristic-based Benders Decomposition approach is applied to a disaster in Tehran, demonstrating efficient solutions for the HTDRP-DC regarding computational time and convergence rate.

Originality/value

Current research introduces an HTDRP-DC problem that addresses minimizing deprivation costs considering the vehicle’s arrival time as the deprivation time, offering a unique solution to optimize route selection in relief distribution. Furthermore, integrating heuristic methods and valid inequalities into the Benders Decomposition approach enhances its effectiveness in solving complex routing challenges in disaster scenarios.

Details

Kybernetes, vol. ahead-of-print no. ahead-of-print
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 0368-492X

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 9 January 2024

Benjamin Kwakye and Tze-Haw Chan

The primary aim of this paper is to concurrently use the data types to enhance econometric analysis in the housing market in developing countries, particularly Namibia.

Abstract

Purpose

The primary aim of this paper is to concurrently use the data types to enhance econometric analysis in the housing market in developing countries, particularly Namibia.

Design/methodology/approach

Scholarly discussions on econometric analysis in the housing market in sub-Saharan Africa suggest that the inadequacy of time series data has impeded studies of such nature in the region. Hence, this paper aims to comparatively analyse the impact of economic fundamentals on house prices in Namibia using real and interpolated data from 1990 to 2021 supported by the ARDL model.

Findings

It was discovered that in all the three types of data house prices were affected by fundamentals except real GDP in the long term. It was also noted that there were not much significant variations between the real data and the interpolated data frequencies. However, the results of the annual data and the semi-annual interpolated data were more analogously comparable to the quarterly interpolated data

Practical implications

It is suggested that the adoption of interpolated data frequency type should be based on the statistical significance of the result. In addition, the need to monitor the nexus of the housing market and fundamentals is necessary for stable and sustainable housing market for enhanced policy direction and prudent property investment decision.

Originality/value

The study pioneer to concurrently use the data types to enhance econometric analysis in the housing market in developing countries.

Details

International Journal of Housing Markets and Analysis, vol. ahead-of-print no. ahead-of-print
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1753-8270

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 25 July 2023

Sreekha Pullaykkodi and Rajesh H. Acharya

This study examines the semi-strong market efficiency of the Indian agricultural commodity market in light of market reforms and policies. This study investigates whether the…

Abstract

Purpose

This study examines the semi-strong market efficiency of the Indian agricultural commodity market in light of market reforms and policies. This study investigates whether the market reforms have boosted the speed of price adjustment and influenced the market quality.

Design/methodology/approach

The study used the daily data of nine agricultural commodities. To precisely capture the effects of market microstructure changes, this study split the whole data into pre- and post-ban and pre- and post-reform eras. To ascertain the velocity of price adjustment, the authors used the ARMA (1,1) model, and the ADD VRatio was employed to identify the price movement on a specific day.

Findings

This study found that full incorporation of information happens sometimes. The authors noticed no gradual progress in the quickness of price adjustment. Since both methods suggested the same result for the period, the authors confirm that market microstructure changes do not enhance market quality.

Research limitations/implications

This research has implications for academicians, policymakers and market players.

Originality/value

The paper has twofold novelty. First, this is a contemporary topic, and very few studies have been done in the Indian agriculture context. Second, the study has implications for policymakers and government because it highlights the effects of structural changes on market quality and market efficiency.

Details

Journal of Agribusiness in Developing and Emerging Economies, vol. ahead-of-print no. ahead-of-print
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 2044-0839

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 3 April 2024

Rizwan Ali, Jin Xu, Mushahid Hussain Baig, Hafiz Saif Ur Rehman, Muhammad Waqas Aslam and Kaleem Ullah Qasim

This study aims to endeavour to decode artificial intelligence (AI)-based tokens' complex dynamics and predictability using a comprehensive multivariate framework that integrates…

Abstract

Purpose

This study aims to endeavour to decode artificial intelligence (AI)-based tokens' complex dynamics and predictability using a comprehensive multivariate framework that integrates technical and macroeconomic indicators.

Design/methodology/approach

In this study we used advance machine learning techniques, such as gradient boosting regression (GBR), random forest (RF) and notably long short-term memory (LSTM) networks, this research provides a nuanced understanding of the factors driving the performance of AI tokens. The study’s comparative analysis highlights the superior predictive capabilities of LSTM models, as evidenced by their performance across various AI digital tokens such as AGIX-singularity-NET, Cortex and numeraire NMR.

Findings

This study finding shows that through an intricate exploration of feature importance and the impact of speculative behaviour, the research elucidates the long-term patterns and resilience of AI-based tokens against economic shifts. The SHapley Additive exPlanations (SHAP) analysis results show that technical and some macroeconomic factors play a dominant role in price production. It also examines the potential of these models for strategic investment and hedging, underscoring their relevance in an increasingly digital economy.

Originality/value

According to our knowledge, the absence of AI research frameworks for forecasting and modelling current aria-leading AI tokens is apparent. Due to a lack of study on understanding the relationship between the AI token market and other factors, forecasting is outstandingly demanding. This study provides a robust predictive framework to accurately identify the changing trends of AI tokens within a multivariate context and fill the gaps in existing research. We can investigate detailed predictive analytics with the help of modern AI algorithms and correct model interpretation to elaborate on the behaviour patterns of developing decentralised digital AI-based token prices.

Details

Journal of Economic Studies, vol. ahead-of-print no. ahead-of-print
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 0144-3585

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 6 December 2023

Z. Göknur Büyükkara, İsmail Cem Özgüler and Ali Hepsen

The purpose of this study is to explore the intricate relationship between oil prices, house prices in the UK and Norway, and the mediating role of gold and stock prices in both…

Abstract

Purpose

The purpose of this study is to explore the intricate relationship between oil prices, house prices in the UK and Norway, and the mediating role of gold and stock prices in both the short- and long-term, unraveling these complex linkages by employing an empirical approach.

Design/methodology/approach

This study benefits from a comprehensive set of econometric tools, including a multiequation vector autoregressive (VAR) system, Granger causality test, impulse response function, variance decomposition and a single-equation autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) system. This rigorous approach enables to identify both short- and long-run dynamics to unravel the intricate linkages between Brent oil prices, housing prices, gold prices and stock prices in the UK and Norway over the period from 2005:Q1 to 2022:Q2.

Findings

The findings indicate that rising oil prices negatively impact house prices, whereas the positive influence of stock market performance on housing is more pronounced. A two-way causal relationship exists between stock market indices and house prices, whereas a one-way causal relationship exists from crude oil prices to house prices in both countries. The VAR model reveals that past housing prices, stock market indices in each country and Brent oil prices are the primary determinants of current housing prices. The single-equation ARDL results for housing prices demonstrate the existence of a long-run cointegrating relationship between real estate and stock prices. The variance decomposition analysis indicates that oil prices have a more pronounced impact on housing prices compared with stock prices. The findings reveal that shocks in stock markets have a greater influence on housing market prices than those in oil or gold prices. Consequently, house prices exhibit a stronger reaction to general financial market indicators than to commodity prices.

Research limitations/implications

This study may have several limitations. First, the model does not include all relevant macroeconomic variables, such as interest rates, unemployment rates and gross domestic product growth. This omission may affect the accuracy of the model’s predictions and lead to inefficiencies in the real estate market. Second, this study does not consider alternative explanations for market inefficiencies, such as behavioral finance factors, information asymmetry or market microstructure effects. Third, the models have limitations in revealing how predictors react to positive and negative shocks. Therefore, the results of this study should be interpreted with caution.

Practical implications

These findings hold significant implications for formulating dynamic policies aimed at stabilizing the housing markets of these two oil-producing nations. The practical implications of this study extend to academics, investors and policymakers, particularly in light of the volatility characterizing both housing and commodity markets. The findings reveal that shocks in stock markets have a more profound impact on housing market prices compared with those in oil or gold prices. Consequently, house prices exhibit a stronger reaction to general financial market indicators than to commodity prices.

Social implications

These findings could also serve as valuable insights for future research endeavors aimed at constructing models that link real estate market dynamics to macroeconomic indicators.

Originality/value

Using a variety of econometric approaches, this paper presents an innovative empirical analysis of the intricate relationship between euro property prices, stock prices, gold prices and oil prices in the UK and Norway from 2005:Q1 to 2022:Q2. Expanding upon the existing literature on housing market price determinants, this study delves into the role of gold and oil prices, considering their impact on industrial production and overall economic growth. This paper provides valuable policy insights for effectively managing the impact of oil price shocks on the housing market.

Details

International Journal of Housing Markets and Analysis, vol. ahead-of-print no. ahead-of-print
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1753-8270

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 6 February 2024

Rahul Sindhwani, Abhishek Behl, Vijay Pereira, Yama Temouri and Sushmit Bagchi

The COVID-19 pandemic has showcased the lack of resilience found in the global value chains (GVCs) of multinational enterprises (MNEs). Existing evidence shows that MNEs have only…

Abstract

Purpose

The COVID-19 pandemic has showcased the lack of resilience found in the global value chains (GVCs) of multinational enterprises (MNEs). Existing evidence shows that MNEs have only recently and slowly started recovering and attempting to rebuild the resilience of their GVCs. This paper analyzes the challenges/inhibitors faced by MNEs in building their resilience through their GVCs.

Design/methodology/approach

A four-stage hybrid model was used to identify the interrelationship among the identified inhibitors and to distinguish the most critical ones by ranking them. In the first stage, we employed a modified total interpretive structural modeling (m-TISM) approach to determine the inter-relationship among the inhibitors. Additionally, we identified the inhibitors' driving power and dependency by performing a matrix multiplication applied to classification (MICMAC) analysis. In the second stage, we employed the Pythagorean fuzzy analytic hierarchy process (PF-AHP) method to determine the weight of the criteria. The next stage followed, in which we used the Pythagorean fuzzy combined compromise solution (PF-CoCoSo) method to rank the inhibitors. Finally, we performed a sensitivity analysis to determine the robustness of the framework we had built based on the criteria and inhibitors.

Findings

We find business sustainability to have the highest importance and managerial governance as the most critical inhibitor hindering the path to resilience. Based on these insights, we derive four research propositions aimed at strengthening the resilience of such GVCs, followed by their implications for theory and practice.

Originality/value

Our findings contribute to the extant literature by uncovering key inhibitors that act as barriers to MNEs. We link out our findings with a number of propositions that we derive, which may be considered for implementation by MNEs and could help them endow their GVCs with resilience.

Details

Management Decision, vol. ahead-of-print no. ahead-of-print
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 0025-1747

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 3 October 2023

Umar Lawal Dano

This study aims to examine the determinants that influence housing prices in Dammam metropolitan area (DMA), Saudi Arabia, by using the analytic hierarchy process (AHP) model. The…

Abstract

Purpose

This study aims to examine the determinants that influence housing prices in Dammam metropolitan area (DMA), Saudi Arabia, by using the analytic hierarchy process (AHP) model. The study considers determinants such as building age (BLD AG), building size (BLD SZ), building condition (BLD CN), access to parking (ACC PK), proximity to transport infrastructure (PRX TRS), proximity to green areas (PRX GA) and proximity to amenities (PRX AM).

Design/methodology/approach

The AHP decision model was used to assess the determinants of housing prices in DMA, using a pair-wise comparison matrix to determine the influence of the investigated factors on housing prices.

Findings

The study’s results revealed that building size (BLD SZ) was the most critical determinant affecting housing prices in DMA, with a weight of 0.32, trailed by proximity to transport infrastructure (PRX TRS), with a weight of 0.24 as the second most influential housing price determinant in DMA. The third most important determinant was proximity to amenities (PRX AM), with a weight of 0.18.

Originality/value

This study addresses a research gap by using the AHP model to assess the spatial determinants of housing prices in DMA, Saudi Arabia. Few studies have used this model in examining housing price factors, particularly in the context of Saudi Arabia. Consequently, the findings of this study provide unique insights for policymakers, housing developers and other stakeholders in understanding the importance of building size, proximity to transport infrastructure and proximity to amenities in influencing housing prices in DMA. By considering these determinants, stakeholders can make informed decisions to improve housing quality and prices in the region.

Details

International Journal of Housing Markets and Analysis, vol. ahead-of-print no. ahead-of-print
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1753-8270

Keywords

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