Search results

Contrary to the implications of economic theory, consumption inequality in the United States did not react to the increases in income inequality during the last three decades. This paper investigates if a change in the type of income inequality – from permanent to transitory – or a change in the ability to insure income shocks is responsible for this. A measure of household consumption is imputed into the Panel Study of Income Dynamics to create panel data on income and consumption for the period 1980–2010. The minimum distance investigation of covariance relationships shows that both explanations work together: the share of transitory shocks increases over time, but the capability to insure against permanent and transitory income shocks also improves. Together, these phenomena can explain the lack of an increase in consumption inequality.

There is no research on understanding the difference in the nature of volatility and what it entails for the underlying relationship between foreign institutional investors (FII) flows and stock market movements. The purpose of this paper is to explore how permanent and transitory shocks dominate the common movement between FII flows and the stock market returns. As emerging markets are a major destination of international portfolio investments, the author uses India as a perfect case study to this end.

The paper uses the permanent-transitory as well as a trend-cycle decomposition approach to gain further insights into the common movement between foreign institutional investors (FII) flows and the stock market.

When the author identifies innovations based on their degree of persistence, transitory shocks dominate stock returns, whereas permanent shocks explain movements in foreign institutional investors (FII) flows. Also, stock returns have a larger cyclical component compared to cycles in foreign flows. The authors find the sharp downward (upward) movement in the stock market (FII flows) cycle in the initial period of the COIVD-19 pandemic was quickly reversed and currently, the stock market (FII flows) is historically above (below) the long-term trend, hinting at a correction in months ahead. The authors find strikingly similar stock market cycles during the global financial crisis and COVID-19 period.

Evidence suggests the presence of long stock market cycles – substantial and persistent deviations of actual price from its fundamental (trend) value determined by the shared relationship with foreign flows. This refutes the efficient market hypothesis and makes a case favoring diversification gains from investing in India. Further, transitory shocks dominate the forecast error of stock market movements. Thus, the Indian market provides profit opportunities to foreign investors who use a momentum-based strategy. The author also finds support for the positive feedback trading strategy used by foreign investors.

There is a need for policymakers to account for the foreign undercurrents while formulating economic policies, given the findings that it is the permanent shocks that mostly explain movements in foreign institutional flows. Further, the author finds only stock markets error-correct in response to any short-term shocks to the shared long-term relationship, highlighting the disruptive (though transitory) role of FII flows.

Unlike existing studies, the author models the relationship between stock market returns and foreign institutional investors (FII) flows by distinguishing between the permanent and transitory movements in these two variables. Ignoring this distinction, as done in existing literature, can affect the soundness of the estimated parameter that captures the nexus between these two variables. In addition, while it may be common to find that stock market returns and FII flows move together, the paper further contributes by decomposing each variable into a trend and a cycle using this shared relationship. The paper also contributes to understanding the impact of COVID-19 on this relationship.

In this chapter, we argue that under- and over-reaction are both parts of the price dynamics caused by investor's naïve judgmental extrapolation. We propose to use the Holt–Winters model, a parsimonious model with two parameters, to represent investor's conservatism (anchoring) and representativeness (trending). The complexity of earning information, which is broken down into a drift, a transitory shock, and an autocorrelated permanent shock, add further volatility to the price. We explain the price dynamics caused by the interplay of the earning model and investor's naïve belief. It is further argued that empirical “underreaction” and “overreaction” differ from true under- and overreaction. The simulated results with the proposed model confirm with empirical findings on under- and overreaction.

We survey the literature on the Risk Augmented Mincer equation that seeks to estimate the compensation for uncertainty in the future wage to be earned after completing an education. There is wide empirical support for the predicted positive effect of wage variance and the negative effect of wage skew. We discuss robustness of the findings across specifications, potential bias from unobserved heterogeneity and selectivity and consider the core issue of students' information on benefits from education.

UK regional data on GDP and the GDP deflator are analysed to extract information on underlying demand and supply shocks as well as aggregate demand and supply shocks. Identification is achieved using long run restrictions, based on a theoretical model. The main results are that the supply shocks are almost completely symmetric across UK regions and that there is no evidence of these shocks being propagated slowly across the regions.

We develop a multiperiod contest theory model to formulate the role of decentralization in coups decision and outcome. In our model the coup plotter chooses between carrying out a coup and subordination, the central government responds by fighting against the plotter, and the local government chooses whether to confront the military government after a successful coup. The model shows that more decentralized countries will experience longer military regime after a successful coup, but the relationship between decentralization and the risk of coups is nonmonotonic. We suggest that there may exist negative consequences of decentralization: Depending on the initial conditions, decentralization may increase the coup risks and jeopardize political stability.

We analyze the interaction among the common and country-specific components for the inflation rates in 12 euro area countries through a factor model with time-varying parameters. The variation of the model parameters is driven by the score of the predictive likelihood, so that, conditionally on past data, the model is Gaussian and the likelihood function can be evaluated using the Kalman filter. The empirical analysis uncovers significant variation over time in the model parameters. We find that, over an extended time period, inflation persistence has fallen and the importance of common shocks has increased relatively to that of idiosyncratic disturbances. According to the model, the fall in inflation observed since the sovereign debt crisis is broadly a common phenomenon since no significant cross-country inflation differentials have emerged. Stressed countries, however, have been hit by unusually large shocks.

This paper surveys the treatment of expectations in estimated Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium (DSGE) macroeconomic models.

A recent notable development in the empirical macroeconomics literature has been the rapid growth of papers that build structural models, which include a number of frictions and shocks, and which are confronted with the data using sophisticated full-information econometric approaches, often using Bayesian methods.

A widespread assumption in these estimated models, as in most of the macroeconomic literature in general, is that economic agents' expectations are formed according to the Rational Expectations Hypothesis (REH). Various alternative ways to model the formation of expectations have, however, emerged: some are simple refinements that maintain the REH, but change the information structure along different dimensions, while others imply more significant departures from rational expectations.

I review here the modeling of the expectation formation process and discuss related econometric issues in current structural macroeconomic models. The discussion includes benchmark models assuming rational expectations, extensions based on allowing for sunspots, news, sticky information, as well as models that abandon the REH to use learning, heuristics, or subjective expectations.

The role that speculation in futures markets plays during food price spikes is a subject of lively dispute. This issue is often addressed with empirical analyses. They suffer from data limitations and focus on the short-term impacts. The paper aims to discuss these issues.

The authors develop a theoretical model to explain the behaviour of speculators and producers in futures and cash markets. Compared to the only two theoretical analyses by Vercammen and Doroudian where informational externalities are excluded and by Fishe et al. where production responses are excluded, the authors introduce both informational externalities and lagged production responses.

The authors find that the expanded net long positions of commodity index funds (CIF) are inconsistent with lower stock levels that typically prevail before the price spikes. These positions stimulate production, hence stocks, before the price spikes. Thus they contribute to soften the price volatility.

The simulation results indicate that before imposing new regulations on financial markets, such as position limits on index funds, their beneficial medium-term effect as a hedging instrument for commercial participants should not be omitted or underestimated.

Because the authors develop a second-best theoretical framework, the authors find that CIF are not a systematic cause of medium-term market swings.

The purpose of this study is to unfold the existing information channel in the higher moments of currency futures for different time horizons.

The authors use a quasi-Bayesian local likelihood approach within a time-varying parameter vector autoregression (TVP-VAR) framework and a dynamic connectedness measure to study the volatility, skewness and kurtosis of most traded currency futures.

The authors’ results suggest a time-varying presence of dynamic connectedness within higher moments of currency futures. Most spillovers pertain to shorter time horizons. The authors find that in net terms, CHF, EUR and JPY are the most important contributors to the system, while the authors emphasize that the role of being a transmitter or a receiver varies for pairwise interactions and time windows.

To the best of the authors’ knowledge, this is the first study that looks upon the connectivity vis-á-vis uncertainty, asymmetry and fat tails in currency futures within a dynamic Bayesian paradigm. The authors extend the current literature by proposing new insights into asset distributions.