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This paper aims to examine whether the Indian banking system is robust to withstand unexpected shocks from external and domestic macroeconomic factors after financial liberalization in 1992. As proposed by Demirgüç-Kunt and Detragiache (1998) and Kaminsky and Reinhart (1999) banking crisis follows financial liberalization. India embarked financial deregulation from 1992, whereas the ongoing global financial crisis (GFC) could jeopardize bank portfolios.

Stress test is undertaken through the vector auto regressive (VAR) model to examine if decline in GDP, exchange rate volatility and foreign capital portfolio funds adversely impact bank asset quality through higher defaults. The VAR model is run for banks belonging to public, private or foreign ownership. Soundness of banks is measured by the non-performing assets (NPAs) with quarterly data from 1997 to 2014. Post-VAR estimation technique, Granger causality test (GC) and impulse response function (IRF) are used to check for robustness of the VAR model findings.

The authors found that there is little divergence among banks of different ownership in responding to the shocks from REER, foreign capital flows and GDP output gap. IRF shows that GDP shock to NPA of public and private banks takes more than nine and eight quarters to stabilize. Foreign banks are impacted by the same macroeconomic factors. The stress test exhibits that public banks are more vulnerable and need recapitalization. Moreover, domestic banks are not adversely affected by the GFC, and credit for this could be attributed to the Reserve Bank of India’s (RBI’s) regulatory policy.

Surprisingly, capital market indices do not influence banks’ NPA, and this needs further investigation. The limitation arises from the fact that stock market index for banks was launched only in the early 2000. Missing data and limited number of banks shares traded in the market could explain the trivial results.

Findings of this study will be useful to RBI policymakers and bank managers. The exchange-rate risk faced by borrowers that lead to increased NPAs is an issue that the RBI would be interested to examine. The impact of foreign capital flows, adversely influencing the NPAs of banks, is a significant issue that the RBI is concerned with.

Banking sector crisis has serious repercussions, causing loss of household savings and decline in confidence in the banking sector.

This topic was explored in India only by Bhattacharya and Roy in (2008). No other similar work has been done to the authors’ knowledge in stress test of banks in India across different ownership. The authors’ study period covers the GFC and shows that it has not caused devastation as it has in developed countries.

The purpose of this paper is to understand and compare the extent and nature of the impact of foreign portfolio investment (FPI) on the stock market volatility, particularly in the Southeast Asian emerging markets, and compare that against the corresponding experience of Indian economy, in the context of a global financial crisis of the recent past.

The Asian emerging markets are now being perceived as becoming financially more and more vulnerable to international events because of their growing exposure to unstable foreign investment flows. The daily net FPI inflow and the daily leading stock market composite index of four countries, namely, Thailand, the Philippines, Indonesia and India, have been analyzed using autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity (ARCH)-generalized ARCH group of models dividing the study period from 2000 to 2014 among pre-crisis, crisis and post-crisis period separately.

The study reveals that the net inflow of FPI has been a significant determinant of stock market returns in all countries. The impact of volatility spillover from the FPI market to the stock market in the sample countries has been found to be different under different market conditions. The past information and volatility clustering have been significantly influencing the stock market return volatilities of all these Southeast Asian countries on average.

However, there are significant country-wise differences in the relative importance and direction of the relationship of each of these effects with the volatility of the FPI and the stock markets. These effects have been different in these four different markets and they have significantly altered in strength and significance during the global financial crisis and in the post-financial crisis period.

There is no research on understanding the difference in the nature of volatility and what it entails for the underlying relationship between foreign institutional investors (FII) flows and stock market movements. The purpose of this paper is to explore how permanent and transitory shocks dominate the common movement between FII flows and the stock market returns. As emerging markets are a major destination of international portfolio investments, the author uses India as a perfect case study to this end.

The paper uses the permanent-transitory as well as a trend-cycle decomposition approach to gain further insights into the common movement between foreign institutional investors (FII) flows and the stock market.

When the author identifies innovations based on their degree of persistence, transitory shocks dominate stock returns, whereas permanent shocks explain movements in foreign institutional investors (FII) flows. Also, stock returns have a larger cyclical component compared to cycles in foreign flows. The authors find the sharp downward (upward) movement in the stock market (FII flows) cycle in the initial period of the COIVD-19 pandemic was quickly reversed and currently, the stock market (FII flows) is historically above (below) the long-term trend, hinting at a correction in months ahead. The authors find strikingly similar stock market cycles during the global financial crisis and COVID-19 period.

Evidence suggests the presence of long stock market cycles – substantial and persistent deviations of actual price from its fundamental (trend) value determined by the shared relationship with foreign flows. This refutes the efficient market hypothesis and makes a case favoring diversification gains from investing in India. Further, transitory shocks dominate the forecast error of stock market movements. Thus, the Indian market provides profit opportunities to foreign investors who use a momentum-based strategy. The author also finds support for the positive feedback trading strategy used by foreign investors.

There is a need for policymakers to account for the foreign undercurrents while formulating economic policies, given the findings that it is the permanent shocks that mostly explain movements in foreign institutional flows. Further, the author finds only stock markets error-correct in response to any short-term shocks to the shared long-term relationship, highlighting the disruptive (though transitory) role of FII flows.

Unlike existing studies, the author models the relationship between stock market returns and foreign institutional investors (FII) flows by distinguishing between the permanent and transitory movements in these two variables. Ignoring this distinction, as done in existing literature, can affect the soundness of the estimated parameter that captures the nexus between these two variables. In addition, while it may be common to find that stock market returns and FII flows move together, the paper further contributes by decomposing each variable into a trend and a cycle using this shared relationship. The paper also contributes to understanding the impact of COVID-19 on this relationship.

The determinants of investors’ sentiment based on secondary stock market proxies in many empirical studies are reported. However, to the best of our knowledge, no study undertakes investor sentiment drivers developed from primary survey measures by constructing an investor sentiment index (ISI) in relation to market drivers to date. This study aims to fill this research gap by first developing the ISI for the Indian retail investors and then examining which of the stock market drivers impacts such sentiment.

The ISI is constructed using the mean scores of eight statements as formulated based on popular direct investor sentiment surveys undertaken across the world. Then, we use the multiple regression approach overall and for top 33.33% (high-sentiment) and bottom 33.33% (low-sentiment) investors based on the responses of 576 respondents on 18 statements (proxying eight study hypotheses) collected in 2016. Moreover, the demography-based classification based investors’ sentiment is examined to make our results more robust and in-depth.

On an overall basis, the IPO activities/issues and information certainty, trading volume and momentum and institutional investors’ investment activities market drivers significantly and positively impact retail investors is examined. However, only IPO activities/issues and information certainty influences both high- and low-sentiment investors. It is intriguing to report that nature of the stock markets show conflicting results for high- (negative significant) and low- (positive significant) sentiment investors.

The construction of the ISI from primary survey measure is for the first time in Indian context in relation to investigating the stock market drivers influential to retail investors’ sentiment. In addition, hypothesized market drivers are also unique, each representing different fundamental and technical characteristics associated with the Indian market.

The purpose of this paper is to examine the direction of causality between foreign institutional investment (FII) trading volume and stock market returns in the Indian context. There is evidence of uni‐directional causalities from stock returns to FII flows across various sample periods. The paper attempts to establish whether net FII trading volume causes variations in stock market returns or vice versa.

Using daily data on three different measures of FII trading volume as proxy for FII trading behaviour and S&P CNX Nifty returns, Granger‐causality approach is applied to investigate the bi‐directional causality between net FII trades and returns.

Bi‐directional causality between net FII investment and Indian stock market return is observed. In general, the FIIs seem to be chasing the Indian stock market returns. It is found that FII trading behaviour resulting in heavy trading volumes may cause variations in stock market returns only in the very short‐term, but afterwards, it is the stock market returns which cause changes in FII trading behaviour.

Since foreign equity investors monitor the movement of stock prices, and furthermore, the role of FIIs' exerting impact on Indian stock markets tends to be growing, the authorities will have to develop an environment where FIIs would maintain their positions with confidence, thereby making the markets, as well as investments, more stable. This research considered only stock market returns to test its relationship with three measures of FII trading volume; more macroeconomic as well as microeconomic variables may further be considered for the purpose.

The paper contributes some empirical evidence using three different measures of FII trading volume as proxy of FII trading behaviour, and its bi‐directional relationship with Indian stock market returns.

Purpose – The aggregate investment by foreign institutional investors (FIIs) in the Indian stock market is significant compared to that by domestic institutions and individual (retail) investors. The question of whether FIIs exhibit herding and positive feedback trading while investing in the Indian stock markets has not been examined so far. This study is an attempt to fill the gap and contribute to the existing evidence on foreign portfolio investment in India.

Methodology/approach – We have analyzed the daily data on purchases and sales of securities by FIIs sourced from the Securities and Exchange Board of India (SEBI), and the Bombay Stock Exchange (BSE). We have adopted the approach of Lakonishok et al. (1992), and Wermers (1999) to examine herding and positive feedback trading by foreign investors.

Findings – Our results suggest that FIIs exhibit herding and positive feedback trading during different phases of the stock market. This observed behavior is prominent in but not restricted to large cap stocks as they enjoy better liquidity.

Social implication – The herding and positive feedback trading by FIIs is a cause for concern for government of India, capital market regulator (SEBI), and the country's central bank (RBI) as it adversely affects stock prices and volatility. They are required to formulate and implement a suitable policy response given their objective of protecting the interests of small investors in the market. They may also have to monitor the purchases and sales of equities by FIIs in general and of better performing large cap stocks in particular.

Political risk has been identified as a major impediment to the success of foreign invested projects, in developing countries. Infrastructure projects are especially sensitive to host-country political climates. Governance in emerging economies can be unstable, which adversely impacts infrastructure projects, given their high capital-intensity, long operational periods and high asset specificity. While the detrimental impact of political risk is well documented, the mitigation of such impacts on infrastructure projects remains largely unexamined. This study, therefore, addresses this by exploring the available identified political risk management (PRM) strategies based on resilience theory and evaluating their effectiveness.

A mixed-method approach was employed to identify PRM strategies. Firstly, a comprehensive literature review identified 40 potential PRM strategies. However, the applicability of those 40 strategies was uncertain due to the scarcity of PRM studies. Thus, expert interviews, drawing on the insights of Chinese infrastructure industry professionals with experience in FII, were applied to review the identified strategies. This process reduced the pool of applicable strategies to 34. Subsequently, 356 questionnaires were sent out to investors from China, Australia and Singapore, with 218 valid responses returned. Based on the data collected from the surveys, statistical analysis was used to evaluate and classify applicable PRM strategies.

Results reveal the most effective top five strategies for offsetting the detrimental effects of political risk on foreign infrastructure investment to be: (1) selection of suitable markets and projects; (2) maintaining good relationship with government; (3) purchasing political insurance; (4) utilizing capable contractors from both host country and home country; and (5) adopting an appropriate entry mode. The 34 strategies were further consolidated into four meta-strategies through factor analysis, resulting in the formulation of a strategy selection matrix.

The findings of this study offer a rational means by which infrastructure investment practitioners considering projects in developing countries, may arrive at an optimal political risk mitigation strategy. The findings also offer government of host countries directives to improving the political environment in order to attract foreign investment flows into local infrastructure projects.

Previous empirical evidence scrutinizing the impact of the institutional ownership on the firm performance has produced inconclusive results and mostly concentrated in the developed market. Hence, the purpose of this paper is to assess the impact of the ownership engagement by pressure-resistant, pressure-sensitive and foreign institutions on the corporate financial performance in a developing market like India post US financial crisis.

This study considers a panel data set of 361 Indian listed firms from National Stock Exchange (NSE) 500 index for a period of eight years from financial year (FY) 2008-2009 to FY 2015-2016. The panel data regression (pooled ordinary least square [OLS], fixed-effect [FE] and random-effect [RE]) and simultaneous equation modeling are used by considering the institutional ownership engagement as both exogenous and endogenous variable.

The test results show that institutional ownership engagement by the pressure-resistant and foreign institution have a robust and positive effect, while ownership engagement by the pressure sensitive institution has an adverse impact on the financial performance of the Indian listed firms.

The findings will boost the monitoring activities of the institutional owners in the developing markets. The investment from pressure-resistant and foreign institutions needs to be augmented in Indian firms to improvise their governance functions and performance.

This research will enrich the governance literature of the developing economies as the studies on institutional ownership engagement are limited in the developing world. Further, this study adds value by capturing two emerging institutional ownership category such as the pressure-resistant and pressure-sensitive, which are still untouched in the Indian context. Next, the consideration of the institutional ownership as both exogenous and endogenous is also novel to the Indian literature.

The volatile nature of foreign portfolio flows, especially flows into debt market, has large implications on financial and macroeconomic stability in recipient countries. It is necessary to identify the main drivers of portfolio investments in bond market of developing economies to design effective policies to enhance resilience of the economy and help in managing capital flow volatility. The determinants of foreign portfolio investment to Indian equity market have been examined in literature, but flows to bond market remain unexplored. Thus, the purpose of this paper is to identify the possible determinants of foreign portfolio flows to Indian bond market both in the short and in the long run.

This study carries out a time series analysis by deploying autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) approach to cointegration of monthly data of the period from January 2002 to December 2016 for the Indian economy. A mix of pull and push factors has been analysed in this study. Domestic growth, domestic stock market performance, interest rate differential, exchange rate, volatility in exchange rate, stock market returns in other emerging economies, foreign output growth and dummy variables to trace the external developments such as global financial crisis and unconventional monetary policies of advanced economies have been used as explanatory variables.

The dominant pull factor such as interest rate differential explains the dynamics of flows in Indian bond market. The relationship between capital movements and interest rate differentials is the most accepted paradigm in international finance (Haynes, 1988). Among other domestic factors are stock market performance, volatility in exchange rates and domestic growth rates which are found to be significant drivers of foreign portfolio bond flows to India. The study also confirmed that global conditions could induce a fast outflow of capital from India.

The study concludes that both domestic factors and external factors are equally important in determining the foreign portfolio investments in the Indian debt market.

The empirical analysis conducted in this study suggests that direct and indirect measures can be taken to increase and stabilise foreign investments in the Indian bond market. Direct policy measures refer to those tools which are under the ambit of policymakers. Indirect measures comprise those tools that are not under the direct control of the fiscal and monetary authorities but require coordinated efforts of the government and private sector. In this context, strengthening of not only financial and economic but also administrative institutions will be necessary. Creditworthiness and policy credibility should be improved to address erratic foreign portfolio investment in debt market of India.

This study is an original research study. This study adds to the existing literature and is expected to guide policymakers on the specific aspect of the management of capital flows as it gets affected by changes in monetary and fiscal policies.

This study aims to examine the relationship between economic policy uncertainty and stock market liquidity in an order-driven emerging stock market.

Empirical estimates are based on vector autoregressive Granger-causality tests, impulse response functions and variance decomposition analysis.

The empirical findings suggest that economic policy uncertainty moderately influences stock market liquidity during normal market conditions. However, the role of economic policy uncertainty for determining stock market liquidity is significant in times of financial crises. The authors have also observed a significant portion of variation in stock market liquidity that is attributed to investor sentiments during financial crises.

This study is original in nature and provides evidence to consider economic policy uncertainty as a possible source of commonality in liquidity in the context of an emerging market.