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Nonlinear Time Series Analysis of Business Cycles
Type: Book
ISBN: 978-0-44451-838-5

Book part
Publication date: 24 April 2023

Yixiao Sun

The author develops and extends the asymptotic F- and t-test theory in linear regression models where the regressors could be deterministic trends, unit-root processes…

Abstract

The author develops and extends the asymptotic F- and t-test theory in linear regression models where the regressors could be deterministic trends, unit-root processes, near-unit-root processes, among others. The author considers both the exogenous case where the regressors and the regression error are independent and the endogenous case where they are correlated. In the former case, the author designs a new set of basis functions that are invariant to the parameter estimation uncertainty and uses them to construct a new series long-run variance estimator. The author shows that the F-test version of the Wald statistic and the t-statistic are asymptotically F and t distributed, respectively. In the latter case, the author shows that the asymptotic F and t theory is still possible, but one has to develop it in a pseudo-frequency domain. The F and t approximations are more accurate than the more commonly used chi-squared and normal approximations. The resulting F and t tests are also easy to implement – they can be implemented in exactly the same way as the F and t tests in a classical normal linear regression.

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Book part
Publication date: 24 April 2023

Abstract

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Essays in Honor of Joon Y. Park: Econometric Theory
Type: Book
ISBN: 978-1-83753-209-4

Book part
Publication date: 13 April 2023

Ayyuce Memis Karatas, Emin Karatas, Ayhan Kapusuzoglu and Nildag Basak Ceylan

This chapter presents an overview of the Bitcoin and its impacts on the environment and economics from the viewpoint of carrying out a systematic analysis of the literature…

Abstract

This chapter presents an overview of the Bitcoin and its impacts on the environment and economics from the viewpoint of carrying out a systematic analysis of the literature related to the environmental and economic effect of digital currency. It is aimed to summarize and critically examine the points of view regarding Bitcoin mining, considering its effects on global warming and the social environment, employing peer-reviewed data associated through literatures. As a result, this study provides the chance to analyze the set of knowledge regarding the effects of the Bitcoin mining procedure on the ecosystem in regard to energy use and CO2 emissions regarding unit root tests and causality test based on nonlinear models. The results show that there exists a nonlinear causal relationship between statistics on Bitcoin mining and the CO2 emissions. The results also imply that Bitcoin remains to be a tool utilized in the economic environment for a range of objectives despite high energy consumption and some negative environmental impact within the scope of renewable energy; hence, authorities would take Bitcoin mining impacts into account to reduce CO2 emissions.

Book part
Publication date: 25 May 2021

Gülay Çizgici Akyüz and Seval Akbulut Bekar

Introduction: The credit default swap (CDS) represents a country’s credit risk premium. CDS premium changes by being affected by several factors. These changes are followed by…

Abstract

Introduction: The credit default swap (CDS) represents a country’s credit risk premium. CDS premium changes by being affected by several factors. These changes are followed by international investor for their investment decisions. CDS premium is important for country to determine the country default risk correctly. Purpose: In this study, the authors seek to examine the effects of macroeconomic indicators on the CDS premium, which is used as a measure of sovereign credit risk. Accordingly, in addition to the CDS premium, economic growth, the inflation rate, the interest rate, the real exchange rate, the net foreign debt rate, and the foreign trade deficit rate were employed to represent macroeconomic indicators. Methodology: The relationship between the given variables during the period spanning from 2009:I–2019:II in Turkey was analyzed with the help of the Dolado–Lütkepohl causality test and the autoregressive distributed lag method. Findings: The inflation rate, the real exchange rate, the interest rate, the net foreign debt rate, and the foreign trade deficit rate, which are among the macroeconomic variables (excluding economic growth), have a positive effect on the CDS premium in the short term as well as the long term. The effect of economic growth is negative. Additionally, from an economic standpoint, the coefficients of macroeconomic variables are in the expected direction. These findings verify the effects of macroeconomic indicators on the CDS premium.

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Contemporary Issues in Social Science
Type: Book
ISBN: 978-1-80043-931-3

Keywords

Book part
Publication date: 5 April 2024

Feng Yao, Qinling Lu, Yiguo Sun and Junsen Zhang

The authors propose to estimate a varying coefficient panel data model with different smoothing variables and fixed effects using a two-step approach. The pilot step estimates the…

Abstract

The authors propose to estimate a varying coefficient panel data model with different smoothing variables and fixed effects using a two-step approach. The pilot step estimates the varying coefficients by a series method. We then use the pilot estimates to perform a one-step backfitting through local linear kernel smoothing, which is shown to be oracle efficient in the sense of being asymptotically equivalent to the estimate knowing the other components of the varying coefficients. In both steps, the authors remove the fixed effects through properly constructed weights. The authors obtain the asymptotic properties of both the pilot and efficient estimators. The Monte Carlo simulations show that the proposed estimator performs well. The authors illustrate their applicability by estimating a varying coefficient production frontier using a panel data, without assuming distributions of the efficiency and error terms.

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Essays in Honor of Subal Kumbhakar
Type: Book
ISBN: 978-1-83797-874-8

Keywords

Content available
Book part
Publication date: 17 June 2024

Abstract

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Finance Analytics in Business
Type: Book
ISBN: 978-1-83753-572-9

Abstract

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Essays in Honor of Subal Kumbhakar
Type: Book
ISBN: 978-1-83797-874-8

Book part
Publication date: 24 April 2023

Martín Almuzara, Gabriele Fiorentini and Enrique Sentana

The authors analyze a model for N different measurements of a persistent latent time series when measurement errors are mean-reverting, which implies a common trend among…

Abstract

The authors analyze a model for N different measurements of a persistent latent time series when measurement errors are mean-reverting, which implies a common trend among measurements. The authors study the consequences of overdifferencing, finding potentially large biases in maximum likelihood estimators (MLE) of the dynamics parameters and reductions in the precision of smoothed estimates of the latent variable, especially for multiperiod objects such as quinquennial growth rates. The authors also develop an R2 measure of common trend observability that determines the severity of misspecification. Finally, the authors apply their framework to US quarterly data on GDE and GDI, obtaining an improved aggregate output measure.

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Essays in Honor of Joon Y. Park: Econometric Methodology in Empirical Applications
Type: Book
ISBN: 978-1-83753-212-4

Keywords

Book part
Publication date: 17 June 2024

Murat Ertuğrul and Mustafa Hakan Saldi

The study is called for to eliminate the noise between the significant macro variables from the perspective of the cause-and-effect approach to indicate why and how the return of…

Abstract

Introduction

The study is called for to eliminate the noise between the significant macro variables from the perspective of the cause-and-effect approach to indicate why and how the return of solar projects is being affected by these.

Purpose

The study aims to investigate the spread between unit selling electricity prices of a monthly production of 250 KW solar project installed in Türkiye and USD/TRY.

Methodology

A relational framework is designed by drawing on the variables determined as crude oil prices, United States (US) 2-year yield, Dollar Index (DXY), USD/TRY, the annual inflation rate of Türkiye, and unit selling electricity prices. Then, a multivariate approach is performed through Matlab to analyse the correlational relationships and structure the curve estimation models.

Findings

The observations show that the gradually rising spread between unit selling electricity price and USD/TRY signals the reduction in return-on-investment rate of solar energy projects because of the particular causes of the European energy crisis by the reason of Russia and Ukraine war and escalating risks in DXY and US treasury yields as a result of federal fund rate hikes against inflationary pressures. Solar energy investments are delicate instruments to global oil shocks and higher DXY in controlling Inflation and currency volatility; therefore, resilient policies should solicit the demand because of environmental and economic reasons to reduce the external dependency of Türkiye.

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