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The purpose of the study is to examine the efficiency of linear, nonlinear and artificial neural networks (ANNs), in predicting property prices.
Abstract
Purpose
The purpose of the study is to examine the efficiency of linear, nonlinear and artificial neural networks (ANNs), in predicting property prices.
Design/methodology/approach
The present study uses a dataset of 1,468 real estate transactions from 2020 to 2022, obtained from the Department of Property Taxes of Republic of Kosovo. Beginning with a fundamental linear regression model, the study tackles the question of overlooked nonlinearity, employing a similar strategy like Peterson and Flanagan (2009) and McCluskey et al. (2012), whereby ANN's predictions are incorporated as an additional regressor within the ordinary least squares (OLS) model.
Findings
The research findings underscore the superior fit of semi-log and double-log models over the OLS model, while the ANN model shows moderate performance, contrary to the conventional conviction of ANN's superior predictive power. This is notably divergent from the prevailing belief about ANN's superior predictive power, shedding light on the potential overestimation of ANN's efficacy.
Practical implications
The study accentuates the importance of embracing diverse models in property price prediction, debunking the notion of the ubiquitous applicability of ANN models. The research outcomes carry substantial ramifications for both scholars and professionals engaged in property valuation.
Originality/value
Distinctively, this research pioneers the comparative analysis of diverse models, including ANN, in the setting of a developing country's capital, hence providing a fresh perspective to their effectiveness in property price prediction.
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Keywords
Dan Li, Hualong Yang and Zhibin Hu
Gamification design is considered an effective way of changing users' health behavior and improving their health management performance. Even though numerous studies have…
Abstract
Purpose
Gamification design is considered an effective way of changing users' health behavior and improving their health management performance. Even though numerous studies have investigated the positive effect of gamification competition on users, little research has considered gamification's ineffectiveness and negative effects. In particular, how gamification competition affects users' technological exhaustion remains unclear.
Design/methodology/approach
According to flow theory and related research on gamification, this study discusses the nonlinear relationship between gamification competition and users' technological exhaustion. Furthermore, the authors analyze the moderating effect of user type (socializers and achievers) and users' health condition on this nonlinear relationship. Based on flow theory, the authors propose a series of research hypotheses. To test all research hypotheses, the authors collected information from 407 users via a questionnaire as the data for this study.
Findings
The empirical results found a U-shaped relationship between gamification competition and technological exhaustion. Technological exhaustion gradually decreases as competition increases until reaching the lowest point; after that, technological exhaustion gradually increases as competition increases. Further, being a socializer and health condition play a moderating role in the U-shaped relationship between competition and technological exhaustion.
Originality/value
This study's findings not only enrich the related research in flow theory and gamification, but also contribute to the effective design of gamification in health management platforms.
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Keywords
It is of a great significance for the health monitoring of a liquid rocket engine to build an accurate and reliable fault prediction model. The thrust of a liquid rocket engine is…
Abstract
Purpose
It is of a great significance for the health monitoring of a liquid rocket engine to build an accurate and reliable fault prediction model. The thrust of a liquid rocket engine is an important indicator for its health monitoring. By predicting the changing value of the thrust, it can be judged whether the engine will fail at a certain time. However, the thrust is affected by various factors, and it is difficult to establish an accurate mathematical model. Thus, this study uses a mixture non-parametric regression prediction model to establish the model of the thrust for the health monitoring of a liquid rocket engine.
Design/methodology/approach
This study analyzes the characteristics of the least squares support vector regression (LS-SVR) machine . LS-SVR is suitable to model on the small samples and high dimensional data, but the performance of LS-SVR is greatly affected by its key parameters. Thus, this study implements the advanced intelligent algorithm, the real double-chain coding target gradient quantum genetic algorithm (DCQGA), to optimize these parameters, and the regression prediction model LSSVRDCQGA is proposed. Then the proposed model is used to model the thrust of a liquid rocket engine.
Findings
The simulation results show that: the average relative error (ARE) on the test samples is 0.37% when using LS-SVR, but it is 0.3186% when using LSSVRDCQGA on the same samples.
Practical implications
The proposed model of LSSVRDCQGA in this study is effective to the fault prediction on the small sample and multidimensional data, and has a certain promotion.
Originality/value
The original contribution of this study is to establish a mixture non-parametric regression prediction model of LSSVRDCQGA and properly resolve the problem of the health monitoring of a liquid rocket engine along with modeling the thrust of the engine by using LSSVRDCQGA.
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Muralidhar Vaman Kamath, Shrilaxmi Prashanth, Mithesh Kumar and Adithya Tantri
The compressive strength of concrete depends on many interdependent parameters; its exact prediction is not that simple because of complex processes involved in strength…
Abstract
Purpose
The compressive strength of concrete depends on many interdependent parameters; its exact prediction is not that simple because of complex processes involved in strength development. This study aims to predict the compressive strength of normal concrete and high-performance concrete using four datasets.
Design/methodology/approach
In this paper, five established individual Machine Learning (ML) regression models have been compared: Decision Regression Tree, Random Forest Regression, Lasso Regression, Ridge Regression and Multiple-Linear regression. Four datasets were studied, two of which are previous research datasets, and two datasets are from the sophisticated lab using five established individual ML regression models.
Findings
The five statistical indicators like coefficient of determination (R2), mean absolute error, root mean squared error, Nash–Sutcliffe efficiency and mean absolute percentage error have been used to compare the performance of the models. The models are further compared using statistical indicators with previous studies. Lastly, to understand the variable effect of the predictor, the sensitivity and parametric analysis were carried out to find the performance of the variable.
Originality/value
The findings of this paper will allow readers to understand the factors involved in identifying the machine learning models and concrete datasets. In so doing, we hope that this research advances the toolset needed to predict compressive strength.
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Keywords
Xiaojie Xu and Yun Zhang
The Chinese housing market has witnessed rapid growth during the past decade and the significance of housing price forecasting has undoubtedly elevated, becoming an important…
Abstract
Purpose
The Chinese housing market has witnessed rapid growth during the past decade and the significance of housing price forecasting has undoubtedly elevated, becoming an important issue to investors and policymakers. This study aims to examine neural networks (NNs) for office property price index forecasting from 10 major Chinese cities for July 2005–April 2021.
Design/methodology/approach
The authors aim at building simple and accurate NNs to contribute to pure technical forecasts of the Chinese office property market. To facilitate the analysis, the authors explore different model settings over algorithms, delays, hidden neurons and data-spitting ratios.
Findings
The authors reach a simple NN with three delays and three hidden neurons, which leads to stable performance of about 1.45% average relative root mean square error across the 10 cities for the training, validation and testing phases.
Originality/value
The results could be used on a standalone basis or combined with fundamental forecasts to form perspectives of office property price trends and conduct policy analysis.
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Keywords
Dimitrios Panagiotou and Filio Naka
The purpose of this paper is to investigate for symmetries – in sign and size – between spot and futures prices in the markets of energy commodities.
Abstract
Purpose
The purpose of this paper is to investigate for symmetries – in sign and size – between spot and futures prices in the markets of energy commodities.
Design/methodology/approach
The aforementioned objective is pursued using daily observations of spot and futures prices for the commodities of crude oil, Brent, heating oil, gasoline and natural gas, along with local nonlinear regression.
Findings
Symmetry in sign and size cannot be rejected. This means that, shocks of the same absolute magnitude, but of different sign, are transmitted from futures prices to spot prices with the same intensity. In addition, larger absolute value price shocks in the futures are transmitted to the spot markets with the same intensity compared with smaller ones. The findings of symmetry in the comovements among prices reveal a lack of those commodities on diversifying the investors’ investment risk.
Originality/value
To the best of the authors’ knowledge, this is the first study to use local nonlinear regression to test for sign and size symmetry between futures and spot prices in the energy commodities markets.
Olufemi Gbenga Onatunji, Oluwayemisi Kadijat Adeleke and Akintoye Victor Adejumo
This study reinvestigates the validity of the Phillips curve in Nigeria for the period 1980–2020 by considering the asymmetric nexus between unemployment and inflation.
Abstract
Purpose
This study reinvestigates the validity of the Phillips curve in Nigeria for the period 1980–2020 by considering the asymmetric nexus between unemployment and inflation.
Design/methodology/approach
The nonlinear autoregressive distributed lag (NARDL) technique was used to decompose the unemployment variable into two components: tight and loosened labour markets.
Findings
The empirical outcome shows that unemployment has a significant negative effect on inflation when the labour market is tight and a weakly negative and significant effect on inflation when the labour market is loose. The study confirms an asymmetric Phillips curve in Nigeria since the positive (tight) unemployment rate exerts a greater effect on inflation than the negative (loosened) unemployment rate.
Practical implications
The findings of this study have important implications for implementing monetary policy in Nigeria.
Originality/value
To the best of the authors’ knowledge, this is the first study to investigate the existence of a nonlinear Phillip curve in Nigeria.
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Tugrul Oktay and Yüksel Eraslan
The purpose of this paper is to improve autonomous flight performance of a fixed-wing unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV) via simultaneous morphing wingtip and control system design…
Abstract
Purpose
The purpose of this paper is to improve autonomous flight performance of a fixed-wing unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV) via simultaneous morphing wingtip and control system design conducted with optimization, computational fluid dynamics (CFD) and machine learning approaches.
Design/methodology/approach
The main wing of the UAV is redesigned with morphing wingtips capable of dihedral angle alteration by means of folding. Aircraft dynamic model is derived as equations depending only on wingtip dihedral angle via Nonlinear Least Squares regression machine learning algorithm. Data for the regression analyses are obtained by numerical (i.e. CFD) and analytical approaches. Simultaneous perturbation stochastic approximation (SPSA) is incorporated into the design process to determine the optimal wingtip dihedral angle and proportional-integral-derivative (PID) coefficients of the control system that maximizes autonomous flight performance. The performance is defined in terms of trajectory tracking quality parameters of rise time, settling time and overshoot. Obtained optimal design parameters are applied in flight simulations to test both longitudinal and lateral reference trajectory tracking.
Findings
Longitudinal and lateral autonomous flight performances of the UAV are improved by redesigning the main wing with morphing wingtips and simultaneous estimation of PID coefficients and wingtip dihedral angle with SPSA optimization.
Originality/value
This paper originally discusses the simultaneous design of innovative morphing wingtip and UAV flight control system for autonomous flight performance improvement. The proposed simultaneous design idea is conducted with the SPSA optimization and a machine learning algorithm as a novel approach.
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Yuhong Wang and Qi Si
This study aims to predict China's carbon emission intensity and put forward a set of policy recommendations for further development of a low-carbon economy in China.
Abstract
Purpose
This study aims to predict China's carbon emission intensity and put forward a set of policy recommendations for further development of a low-carbon economy in China.
Design/methodology/approach
In this paper, the Interaction Effect Grey Power Model of N Variables (IEGPM(1,N)) is developed, and the Dragonfly algorithm (DA) is used to select the best power index for the model. Specific model construction methods and rigorous mathematical proofs are given. In order to verify the applicability and validity, this paper compares the model with the traditional grey model and simulates the carbon emission intensity of China from 2014 to 2021. In addition, the new model is used to predict the carbon emission intensity of China from 2022 to 2025, which can provide a reference for the 14th Five-Year Plan to develop a scientific emission reduction path.
Findings
The results show that if the Chinese government does not take effective policy measures in the future, carbon emission intensity will not achieve the set goals. The IEGPM(1,N) model also provides reliable results and works well in simulation and prediction.
Originality/value
The paper considers the nonlinear and interactive effect of input variables in the system's behavior and proposes an improved grey multivariable model, which fills the gap in previous studies.
Details
Keywords
Rebecca Restle, Marcelo Cajias and Anna Knoppik
The purpose of this paper is to explore the significance impact of air quality as a contributing factor on residential property rents by applying geo-informatics to economic…
Abstract
Purpose
The purpose of this paper is to explore the significance impact of air quality as a contributing factor on residential property rents by applying geo-informatics to economic issues. Since air pollution poses a severe health threat, city residents should have a right to know about the (invisible) hazards they are exposed to.
Design/methodology/approach
Within spatial-temporal modeling of air pollutants in Berlin, Germany, three interpolation techniques are tested. The most suitable one is selected to create seasonal maps for 2018 and 2021 with pollution concentrations for particulate matter values and nitrogen dioxide for each 1,000 m2 cell within the administrative boundaries. Based on the evaluated pollution particulate matter values, which are used as additional variables for semi-parametric regressions the impact of the air quality on rents is estimated.
Findings
The findings reveal a compelling association between air quality and the economic aspect of the residential real estate market, with noteworthy implications for both tenants and property investors. The relationship between air pollution variables and rents is statistically significant. However, there is only a “willingness-to- pay” for low particulate matter values, but not for nitrogen dioxide concentrations. With good air quality, residents in Berlin are willing to pay a higher rent (3%).
Practical implications
These results suggest that a “marginal willingness-to-pay” occurs in a German city. The research underscores the multifaceted impact of air quality on the residential rental market in Berlin. The evidence supports the notion that a cleaner environment not only benefits human health and the planet but also contributes significantly to the economic bottom line of property investors.
Originality/value
The paper has a unique data engineering approach. It collects spatiotemporal data from network of state-certified measuring sites to create an index of air pollution. This spatial information is merged with residential listings. Afterward non-linear regression models are estimated.
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