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Book part
Publication date: 13 December 2013

Bertrand Candelon, Elena-Ivona Dumitrescu, Christophe Hurlin and Franz C. Palm

In this article we propose a multivariate dynamic probit model. Our model can be viewed as a nonlinear VAR model for the latent variables associated with correlated binary…

Abstract

In this article we propose a multivariate dynamic probit model. Our model can be viewed as a nonlinear VAR model for the latent variables associated with correlated binary time-series data. To estimate it, we implement an exact maximum likelihood approach, hence providing a solution to the problem generally encountered in the formulation of multivariate probit models. Our framework allows us to study the predictive relationships among the binary processes under analysis. Finally, an empirical study of three financial crises is conducted.

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VAR Models in Macroeconomics – New Developments and Applications: Essays in Honor of Christopher A. Sims
Type: Book
ISBN: 978-1-78190-752-8

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Book part
Publication date: 1 January 2008

Ivan Jeliazkov, Jennifer Graves and Mark Kutzbach

In this paper, we consider the analysis of models for univariate and multivariate ordinal outcomes in the context of the latent variable inferential framework of Albert…

Abstract

In this paper, we consider the analysis of models for univariate and multivariate ordinal outcomes in the context of the latent variable inferential framework of Albert and Chib (1993). We review several alternative modeling and identification schemes and evaluate how each aids or hampers estimation by Markov chain Monte Carlo simulation methods. For each identification scheme we also discuss the question of model comparison by marginal likelihoods and Bayes factors. In addition, we develop a simulation-based framework for analyzing covariate effects that can provide interpretability of the results despite the nonlinearities in the model and the different identification restrictions that can be implemented. The methods are employed to analyze problems in labor economics (educational attainment), political economy (voter opinions), and health economics (consumers’ reliance on alternative sources of medical information).

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Bayesian Econometrics
Type: Book
ISBN: 978-1-84855-308-8

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Book part
Publication date: 21 December 2010

Chandra R. Bhat, Cristiano Varin and Nazneen Ferdous

This chapter compares the performance of the maximum simulated likelihood (MSL) approach with the composite marginal likelihood (CML) approach in multivariate

Abstract

This chapter compares the performance of the maximum simulated likelihood (MSL) approach with the composite marginal likelihood (CML) approach in multivariate ordered-response situations. The ability of the two approaches to recover model parameters in simulated data sets is examined, as is the efficiency of estimated parameters and computational cost. Overall, the simulation results demonstrate the ability of the CML approach to recover the parameters very well in a 5–6 dimensional ordered-response choice model context. In addition, the CML recovers parameters as well as the MSL estimation approach in the simulation contexts used in this study, while also doing so at a substantially reduced computational cost. Further, any reduction in the efficiency of the CML approach relative to the MSL approach is in the range of nonexistent to small. When taken together with its conceptual and implementation simplicity, the CML approach appears to be a promising approach for the estimation of not only the multivariate ordered-response model considered here, but also for other analytically intractable econometric models.

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Maximum Simulated Likelihood Methods and Applications
Type: Book
ISBN: 978-0-85724-150-4

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Article
Publication date: 7 March 2016

Marian Alexander Dietzel

Recent research has found significant relationships between internet search volume and real estate markets. This paper aims to examine whether Google search volume data…

Abstract

Purpose

Recent research has found significant relationships between internet search volume and real estate markets. This paper aims to examine whether Google search volume data can serve as a leading sentiment indicator and are able to predict turning points in the US housing market. One of the main objectives is to find a model based on internet search interest that generates reliable real-time forecasts.

Design/methodology/approach

Starting from seven individual real-estate-related Google search volume indices, a multivariate probit model is derived by following a selection procedure. The best model is then tested for its in- and out-of-sample forecasting ability.

Findings

The results show that the model predicts the direction of monthly price changes correctly, with over 89 per cent in-sample and just above 88 per cent in one to four-month out-of-sample forecasts. The out-of-sample tests demonstrate that although the Google model is not always accurate in terms of timing, the signals are always correct when it comes to foreseeing an upcoming turning point. Thus, as signals are generated up to six months early, it functions as a satisfactory and timely indicator of future house price changes.

Practical implications

The results suggest that Google data can serve as an early market indicator and that the application of this data set in binary forecasting models can produce useful predictions of changes in upward and downward movements of US house prices, as measured by the Case–Shiller 20-City House Price Index. This implies that real estate forecasters, economists and policymakers should consider incorporating this free and very current data set into their market forecasts or when performing plausibility checks for future investment decisions.

Originality/value

This is the first paper to apply Google search query data as a sentiment indicator in binary forecasting models to predict turning points in the housing market.

Details

International Journal of Housing Markets and Analysis, vol. 9 no. 1
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1753-8270

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Book part
Publication date: 1 December 2016

R. Kelley Pace and James P. LeSage

We show how to quickly estimate spatial probit models for large data sets using maximum likelihood. Like Beron and Vijverberg (2004), we use the GHK…

Abstract

We show how to quickly estimate spatial probit models for large data sets using maximum likelihood. Like Beron and Vijverberg (2004), we use the GHK (Geweke-Hajivassiliou-Keane) algorithm to perform maximum simulated likelihood estimation. However, using the GHK for large sample sizes has been viewed as extremely difficult (Wang, Iglesias, & Wooldridge, 2013). Nonetheless, for sparse covariance and precision matrices often encountered in spatial settings, the GHK can be applied to very large sample sizes as its operation counts and memory requirements increase almost linearly with n when using sparse matrix techniques.

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Spatial Econometrics: Qualitative and Limited Dependent Variables
Type: Book
ISBN: 978-1-78560-986-2

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Article
Publication date: 27 September 2011

Jae Young Choi, Yeonbae Kim, Yungman Jun and Yunhee Kim

The purpose of this paper is to reveal the core determinants and adoption patterns of the major enterprise information systems.

Abstract

Purpose

The purpose of this paper is to reveal the core determinants and adoption patterns of the major enterprise information systems.

Design/methodology/approach

This study incorporated the core representative and meaningful explanatory variables in the major previous literatures and analyzes the core determinants of businesses' adoption of the essential information systems and the substitutionary patterns among them, using a Bayesian multivariate probit model, which is based on McFadden's random utility model and capable of handling multiple response data.

Findings

It was found that not only factors from the classical technological diffusion viewpoint but also factors such as organizational tools and strategic behaviors play an important role in firms' adoption of information systems. Specifically, epidemic effect generally outweighs size effect, and putting more effort into the intensity of information strategy planning is more influential than the hiring of a professional chief information officer. On the other hand, such variables as age of the firm, labor intensity, and number of PCs per person generally have no significant impacts. Finally, a relatively strong complementary relationship exists between enterprise resource planning and customer relationship management adoption, and between e‐buy and groupware adoption.

Originality/value

The results presented in this paper have important implications for firms on a minimal budget that want to maximize their productivity through the adoption of information systems. They also provide important information for government policymakers whose job it is to design strategies for the successful deployment of information systems.

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Article
Publication date: 17 July 2018

Uwe Jirjahn

A growing number of econometric examinations show that works councils substantially shape the personnel policy of firms in Germany. Firms with works councils make greater…

Abstract

Purpose

A growing number of econometric examinations show that works councils substantially shape the personnel policy of firms in Germany. Firms with works councils make greater use of various human resource management (HRM) practices. This gives rise to the question of whether employers view the shaping of personnel policy positively or negatively. Against this background, the purpose of this paper is to examine the influence of works councils on employer attitudes toward HRM practices.

Design/methodology/approach

Using data from manufacturing establishments, multivariate and recursive multivariate models are applied to estimate the determinants of employer attitudes toward HRM practices.

Findings

The incidence of a works council increases the probability of positive employer attitudes toward the incentive effects of performance pay, profit sharing, promotions, further training and worker involvement in decision making. However, it decreases the probability of positive employer attitudes toward high wages. The results suggest that works councils play a redistribution role in wages and a collective voice role in the other HRM practices.

Originality/value

The study complements examinations focusing on the influence of works councils on the formal presence of HRM practices. There are two potential limitations of focusing solely on formal HRM practices. First, the formal presence of a practice does not necessarily mean that the practice is effectively used. Second, a firm may informally use HRM practices even though the practices have not been formally adopted. The study provides insights into the question of whether or not works councils influence employers’ support for the various practices. This support can be important for the effective use of the practices, regardless of whether they are of formal or informal nature.

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Article
Publication date: 2 August 2021

Thanh Cong Nguyen, Hang Dieu Nguyen, Hoa Thu Le and Shinji Kaneko

This purpose of this paper is to understand residents’ choice of preferred measures and their willingness-to-pay (WTP) for the measures to improve the air quality of Hanoi city.

Abstract

Purpose

This purpose of this paper is to understand residents’ choice of preferred measures and their willingness-to-pay (WTP) for the measures to improve the air quality of Hanoi city.

Design/methodology/approach

Questionnaire surveys were conducted to collect the opinions of 212 household representatives living in Hanoi City. The survey tools were tested and adjusted through an online survey with 191 responses. Multivariate probit and linear regression models were used to identify determinants of respondents’ choices of measures and their WTP.

Findings

Respondents expressed their strong preferences for three measures for air quality improvements, including: (1) increase of green spaces; (2) use of less polluting fuels; (3) expansion of public transportation. The mean WTP for the implementation of those measures was estimated at about 148,000–282,000 Vietnamese dong, equivalent to 0.09–0.16% of household income. The respondents’ choices appear to be consistent with their characteristics and needs, such as financial affordability, time on roads and their perceived impacts of air pollution. The WTP estimates increase with perception of air pollution impacts, time on roads, education and income; but are lower for older people.

Originality/value

To gain a better understanding of public opinions, we applied multivariate probit models to check whether respondents’ choices were consistent with their characteristics and perceptions. This appears to be the first attempt to test the validity of public opinions on choices of measures for improving urban air quality in Vietnam. Our WTP estimates also contribute to the database on the values of improved air quality in the developing world.

Details

Journal of Economics and Development, vol. ahead-of-print no. ahead-of-print
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1859-0020

Keywords

Content available
Article
Publication date: 17 May 2021

Kimberly Lynn Jensen, Karen Lewis DeLong, Mackenzie Belen Gill and David Wheeler Hughes

This study aims to determine whether consumers are willing to pay a premium for locally produced hard apple cider and examine the factors influencing this premium. This…

Abstract

Purpose

This study aims to determine whether consumers are willing to pay a premium for locally produced hard apple cider and examine the factors influencing this premium. This study examines the influence of hard apple cider attributes and consumer characteristics on consumer preferences for local hard apple cider.

Design/methodology/approach

Data from a 2019 survey of 875 Tennessee consumers regarding their preferences for a local hard apple cider were obtained. Probit estimates were used to calculate the premium consumers were willing to pay for a locally made hard apple cider and factors influencing this premium. A multivariate probit was used to ascertain factors influencing the importance of attributes (e.g. heirloom apples, sweetness/dryness, sparking/still and no preservatives added) on local hard apple cider preference.

Findings

Consumers would pay a $3.22 premium for local hard apple cider compared with a $6.99 reference product. Local foods preferences, urbanization, weekly purchases of other alcoholic beverages and shopping venues influenced premium amounts. Other important attributes were sweetness/dryness and no preservatives. Influence of consumer demographics suggests targeted marketing of local ciders could be successful.

Originality/value

Few studies examine consumer preferences for hard apple ciders. This study represents a cross-sectional analysis of the premium consumers would pay for local hard apple ciders and the importance of other hard apple cider attributes.

Details

International Journal of Wine Business Research, vol. 33 no. 3
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1751-1062

Keywords

Content available
Article
Publication date: 12 April 2018

Jeetendra Prakash Aryal, M.L. Jat, Tek B. Sapkota, Arun Khatri-Chhetri, Menale Kassie, Dil Bahadur Rahut and Sofina Maharjan

The adoption of climate-smart agricultural practices (CSAPs) is important for sustaining Indian agriculture in the face of climate change. Despite considerable effort by…

Abstract

Purpose

The adoption of climate-smart agricultural practices (CSAPs) is important for sustaining Indian agriculture in the face of climate change. Despite considerable effort by both national and international agricultural organizations to promote CSAPs in India, adoption of these practices is low. This study aims to examine the elements that affect the likelihood and intensity of adoption of multiple CSAPs in Bihar, India.

Design/methodology/approach

The probability and intensity of adoption of CSAPs are analyzed using multivariate and ordered probit models, respectively.

Findings

The results show significant correlations between multiple CSAPs, indicating that their adoptions are interrelated, providing opportunities to exploit the complementarities. The results confirm that both the probability and intensity of adoption of CSAPs are affected by numerous factors, such as demographic characteristics, farm plot features, access to market, socio-economics, climate risks, access to extension services and training. Farmers who perceive high temperature as the major climate risk factor are more likely to adopt crop diversification and minimum tillage. Farmers are less likely to adopt site-specific nutrient management if faced with short winters; however, they are more likely to adopt minimum tillage in this case. Training on agricultural issues is found to have a positive impact on the likelihood and the intensity of CSAPs adoption.

Practical implications

The major policy recommendations coming from of our results are to strengthen local institutions (public extension services, etc.) and to provide more training on CSAPs.

Originality/value

By applying multivariate and ordered probit models, this paper provides some insights on the long-standing discussions on whether farmers adopt CSAPs in a piecemeal or in a composite way.

Details

International Journal of Climate Change Strategies and Management, vol. 10 no. 3
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1756-8692

Keywords

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