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Article
Publication date: 27 June 2024

Suhaib Al-Khazaleh, Dr Nemer Badwan, Ibrahim Eriqat and Zahra El Shlmani

The purpose of this study is to evaluate the linkage between stock markets in Middle Eastern countries before and during the COVID-19 pandemic by using daily and monthly data sets…

Abstract

Purpose

The purpose of this study is to evaluate the linkage between stock markets in Middle Eastern countries before and during the COVID-19 pandemic by using daily and monthly data sets for the period from 2011 to 2021.

Design/methodology/approach

The multivariate BEKK-GARCH model was computed to evaluate the existence of non-linear linkage among Middle Eastern stock markets. A correlation approach was used in this study to determine the type of linear connectivity between Middle Eastern stock markets. The study used monthly and daily data sets covering the years 2011 to 2021 to investigate the linkage between stock returns and the volatility spillover between the stock markets in Palestine, Jordan, Syria and Lebanon, both before and during COVID-19. To understand the types of relationships between markets before and during COVID-19, the daily data set was split into two periods.

Findings

Results from the pre-COVID-19 suggest that the Syria stock market is not related to any stock market in the Middle East markets; the Palestine and Lebanon stock markets exhibit a weak relationship, but Jordan and Palestine stock markets are strongly linked. Conversely, results from COVID-19 evince a very strong bidirectional volatility spillover between Middle East stock markets. Overall, the results indicate the existence of increased linkage during the COVID-19.

Research limitations/implications

The data collection on a daily and monthly basis, both before and during COVID-19, presents certain limitations for the paper. Another limitation is that the data cannot be generalized to all other Middle Eastern countries; rather, the conclusions drawn can only be applied to these four countries. This is especially true if the scholars collected most of the necessary data but were unable to obtain certain data for various reasons.

Practical implications

These findings have implications for risk management, market regulation and the growth of local stock markets. Facilitating the growth of smaller, more specialized markets to improve integration with other Middle Eastern markets is one of the goals of the domestic stock market development policy. To ensure financial stability, Middle Eastern stock market linking policies should consider spillover risk and take steps to minimize it. Enhancing the range of investment opportunities accessible to shareholders and functioning as confidential risk-sharing mechanisms to facilitate improved risk management in Middle Eastern stock markets will not only significantly influence the mobilization of private capital to promote investment and local economic growth but also lay groundwork for integrated market platforms.

Originality/value

This paper adds to the body of literature by demonstrating the nature of the connections between these small markets and the larger markets in the Middle East region. Information from the smaller markets provides institutional insights that enhance the body of existing research, guide the formulation of evidence-based policies and advance financial literacy in these markets. This study contributes by comparing data from different stock markets to better understand the type and strength of the link and relationship between Middle Eastern stock markets, as well as any underlying or reinforcing factors that might have contributed to the relationship and the specific types of links that these markets shared prior and during COVID-19.

Details

Journal of Chinese Economic and Foreign Trade Studies, vol. ahead-of-print no. ahead-of-print
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1754-4408

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 24 September 2024

Muhammad Naeem Shahid

The study aims to investigate the risk transmission from COVID-19 to global agriculture, energy, natural resources/mining and environmentally/socially responsible investments…

Abstract

Purpose

The study aims to investigate the risk transmission from COVID-19 to global agriculture, energy, natural resources/mining and environmentally/socially responsible investments. Additionally, it explores the connectedness of global energy indices with global agriculture, natural resources/mining and environmentally/socially responsible investments. The study develops a new COVID-19-based Global Fear Index (GFI) to achieve the objectives, thus contributing to the prevailing literature.

Design/methodology/approach

The data of Global indices are selected from January 2020 to December 2021. The study uses multivariate BEKK-GARCH and TVP-VAR models to explore COVID-19 risk transmission and connectedness between global indices.

Findings

Significant shock and volatility transmissions from COVID-19 to all global indices are observed. Results show that global agriculture, natural resource/mining markets and environmentally and socially responsible investments are safe havens during COVID-19. Furthermore, these global investment choices are barely connected with global energy indices.

Practical implications

Portfolio managers and investors should invest in global indices to gauge the risk-adjusted return during the pandemic and upcoming health-related risks. Investors in energy sectors are advised to diversify the risk by adding safe-haven assets to their portfolios.

Social implications

The findings shed light on the importance of environmentally and socially responsible investments as a separate asset class where ecologically friendly and socially sentimental investors could invest in diversifying the risk of their portfolios.

Originality/value

The paper offers valuable insights to policymakers and investors regarding asset pricing, risk management and financial market stability during pandemic-type emergencies.

Details

Journal of Financial Economic Policy, vol. ahead-of-print no. ahead-of-print
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1757-6385

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 23 September 2024

Walid Chkili

This paper investigates potential safe haven assets for Middle East and North Africa (MENA) stock markets during the uncertainty period of the COVID-19 pandemic.

Abstract

Purpose

This paper investigates potential safe haven assets for Middle East and North Africa (MENA) stock markets during the uncertainty period of the COVID-19 pandemic.

Design/methodology/approach

This study applies the dynamic conditional correlation–generalized autoregressive conditionally heteroskedastic (DCC-GARCH) model and the Diebold–Yilmaz spillover index for ten MENA stock markets, three precious metals and Bitcoin for the period 2013–2021.

Findings

Empirical results show, on the one hand, that the COVID-19 crisis risk has been transmitted to MENA stock markets through volatility spillover across markets. This has increased the conditional volatility for all markets. On the other hand, findings point out that the dynamic correlation between the precious metals/Bitcoin and stock markets is not stable and switches between low positive and negative values during the period under studies. Extending analysis to portfolio management, results reveal that investors should include precious metals/Bitcoin in their portfolio of stocks in order to reduce the risk of the portfolio. Finally, for the period of COVID-19, the analysis concludes that gold preserves its traditional role as a safe haven for MENA stock markets during the pandemic, while Bitcoin fails to provide this property.

Practical implications

These results have several implications for international investors, risk managers and financial analysts in terms of portfolio diversifications and hedging strategies. Indeed, the exploration of the volatility connectedness between financial, commodity and cryptocurrency markets becomes an essential task for all market participants during the COVID-19 outbreak. Such analysis can help investors and portfolio managers to evaluate the risk of investments in the MENA stock markets during the crisis period and to achieve the optimal diversification strategy and hedging instruments.

Originality/value

The paper interests MENA stock markets that experienced the last decade a substantial development in terms of market capitalization and number of listed firms. To the author’s knowledge, this is the first study that investigates the dynamic correlation between MENA stock markets and four potential safe haven assets, including three precious metals and Bitcoin. In addition, the paper employs two types of models, namely the DCC-GARCH model and the Diebold-Yilmaz spillover index.

Details

EuroMed Journal of Business, vol. ahead-of-print no. ahead-of-print
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1450-2194

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 5 August 2024

Hussain Mohi-Ud-Din Qadri, Atta Ul Mustafa, Hassnian Ali and Atta Ul Mustafa Tahir

This study aims to find whether sukuk (Islamic bonds) possess a safe haven property for investors or not.

Abstract

Purpose

This study aims to find whether sukuk (Islamic bonds) possess a safe haven property for investors or not.

Design/methodology/approach

To analyze this statement, the study used data from MSCI World conventional and MSCI World Islamic indices from August 17, 2012 to June 8, 2022. The study used the generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity (GARCH) variance technique, the most common technique used in stock data analysis.

Findings

The results dictate the absence of sukuk as a safe haven for investors as both the conventional and Islamic markets show decoupling behavior. The study finds concrete evidence of a strong association between the debt-based bond market and the Islamic sukuk market. As these markets mostly like to move in a parallel direction, a recession in a conventional bond market likely means a recession in the Islamic sukuk market.

Originality/value

This study is unique in incorporating the MSCI World Islamic Index and other Islamic indices of several Muslim countries, which was absent in previous research. Second, this study is unique because it adds a separate regression for the COVID era to show whether the movement of indices changed during regression.

Details

Journal of Islamic Accounting and Business Research, vol. ahead-of-print no. ahead-of-print
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1759-0817

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 11 May 2023

Suresh Kumar Oad Rajput, Amjad Ali Memon, Tariq Aziz Siyal and Namarta Kumari Bajaj

This paper aims to test for volatility spillovers among Islamic stock markets with the exogenous impact of geopolitical risk (GPR) to check the risk transmission among Saudi…

Abstract

Purpose

This paper aims to test for volatility spillovers among Islamic stock markets with the exogenous impact of geopolitical risk (GPR) to check the risk transmission among Saudi Arabia, Malaysia, Indonesia and Turkey. Researchers test for both the symmetric and asymmetric risk transmission.

Design/methodology/approach

For the symmetric response of volatility, the study uses simple generalized autoregressive conditional heteroscedastic (GARCH) and for the asymmetric response of volatility with the exogenous impact of GPR, the exponential GARCH models have been adopted.

Findings

The results suggest spillover effects exist from Turkey to Saudi Arabia, Indonesia to Malaysia and Saudi Arabia and Malaysia to Indonesia. The findings of volatility spillover from GPR to sample countries suggest that only Malaysia and Indonesia experience volatility spillovers from GPR.

Research limitations/implications

The present study is limited to the context of four countries and Islamic equities; the study contributes to the literature on volatility spillover, Islamic finance, GPR and asset pricing.

Practical implications

This study contributes to individual, institutional investors’ policymakers’ knowledge in determining security prices, trading plans, investment hedging and policy regulation.

Social implications

The extant literature disregards the GPR index to examine the volatility spillover effects among Islamic stock markets, which allow researchers to justify the mechanism of risk transmission due to GPR across the Islamic stock market.

Originality/value

To the best of the authors’ knowledge, this is the first research of its type to look at volatility spillover and GPR transmission in Islamic stock markets.

Details

Journal of Islamic Accounting and Business Research, vol. 15 no. 5
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1759-0817

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 25 July 2024

Zahra Meskini and Hasna Chaibi

This study aims to test the contagion effect of the Tunisian revolution on the Egyptian stock market. Thus, the purpose of this research is to distinguish the contagion effect…

Abstract

Purpose

This study aims to test the contagion effect of the Tunisian revolution on the Egyptian stock market. Thus, the purpose of this research is to distinguish the contagion effect from the simple interdependence between these markets.

Design/methodology/approach

This paper examines the contagion hypothesis between Tunisia and Egypt during the Arab Spring, using a DCC-MGARCH model to capture time-varying contagion effects and dynamic linkages in stock markets. Therefore, to identify the contagion effect from the simple interdependence, the authors apply the pure contagion test developed by Forbes and Rigobon (2002).

Findings

The findings indicate a contagion effect, as the EGX 30 index exhibited similar changes, positive or negative, as the Tunindex index during the period of the Tunisian revolution. Moreover, the analysis demonstrates the presence of an interdependence between the Tunisian revolution and the Egyptian market, emphasizing the interconnections between these two economies.

Practical implications

The findings provide investors with a better understanding of financial market dynamics in times of major political unrest, notably on the Tunisian and Egyptian markets. By understanding the contagion effect of the Tunisian revolution on the Egyptian stock market, investors can further explore the complexities of these markets in times of financial crises, which can help mitigate losses and identify strategic investment opportunities.

Originality/value

This study makes two significant contributions to the field. First, it addresses the scarcity of research specifically focused on the contagion effect during the Arab Spring, aiming to fill this gap by testing the contagion effect of the Tunisian revolution on a nearby market. Second, it extends the contagion test of Forbes and Rigobon (2002), which associates “pure” contagion with a significantly higher correlation between markets during a crisis.

Details

Journal of Financial Regulation and Compliance, vol. ahead-of-print no. ahead-of-print
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1358-1988

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 24 July 2024

Muhammad Mahmudul Karim, Abu Hanifa Md. Noman, M. Kabir Hassan, Asif Khan and Najmul Haque Kawsar

This paper aims to investigate the immediate effect of the outbreak of the COVID-19 pandemic by investigating volatility transmission and dynamic correlation between stock…

Abstract

Purpose

This paper aims to investigate the immediate effect of the outbreak of the COVID-19 pandemic by investigating volatility transmission and dynamic correlation between stock (conventional and Islamic) markets, bitcoin and major commodities such as gold, oil and silver at different investment horizons before and after 161 trading days of the outbreak of the COVID-19 pandemic.

Design/methodology/approach

The MGARCH-DCC and maximum overlap discrete wavelet transform -based cross-correlation were used in the estimation of the volatility spillover and continuous wavelet transform in the estimation of the time-varying volatility and correlation between the assets at different investment horizons.

Findings

The authors observed a sudden correlation breakdown following the COVID-19 shock. Oil (Bitcoin) was a major volatility transmitter before (during) COVID-19. Digital gold (Bitcoin), gold and silver became highly correlated during COVID-19. The highest co-movement between the assets was observed at medium and long-term investment horizons.

Practical implications

The study findings have a financial implication for day traders, investors and policymakers in the understanding of volatility transmission and intercorrelation in a bid to actively manage stylized and well-diversified asset portfolios.

Originality/value

This study is unique for its employment in estimating the time-varying conditional volatility of the investable assets and cross-correlations between them at different investment horizons, particularly before and after COVID-19 outbreak.

Details

International Journal of Islamic and Middle Eastern Finance and Management, vol. 17 no. 4
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1753-8394

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 13 September 2024

Cagla Burcin Akdogan, Nimet Uray, Burc Ulengin and Meltem Kiygi-Calli

This paper aims to examine the direct impacts of marketing resources and marketing activities on several business performance indicators in the banking industry and the indirect…

Abstract

Purpose

This paper aims to examine the direct impacts of marketing resources and marketing activities on several business performance indicators in the banking industry and the indirect effects through customer-based brand equity.

Design/methodology/approach

We use a holistic empirical approach based on resource-based view and marketing productivity chain. The main study consists of a secondary analysis using quarterly data of fourteen banks over four years. We analyze the data using fixed-effect panel data regression, namely seemingly unrelated regressions.

Findings

We find that customer-based brand equity is one of the most influential factors on business performance. Moreover, the indirect effect through customer-based brand equity should be considered in improving business performance. Marketing-related financial resources positively impact customer-based brand equity and business performance. Regarding marketing activities, pricing strategies affect the bank preferences of customers, which in turn affect the growth of deposit volumes and churn rates. Additionally, the number of bank branches positively impacts business performance. Advertising spending on different media has differentiated impacts on the performance indicators; thus, the allocation of advertising budget and advertising planning are critical.

Originality/value

This study examines the inter-relationships among marketing resources, marketing activities, consumer response through brand equity and marketing performance. This study contributes to the literature by integrating the resource-based view and the marketing productivity chain to analyze the inter-relationships using panel data and several sector-related metrics. This study provides valuable insights to decision-makers in the banking industry.

Details

Business Process Management Journal, vol. ahead-of-print no. ahead-of-print
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1463-7154

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 15 August 2024

Mohamed Yousfi and Houssam Bouzgarrou

This study attempts to examine the time-varying volatility spillovers between environmentally sustainable assets and quantify the value-at-risk of the portfolios across various…

Abstract

Purpose

This study attempts to examine the time-varying volatility spillovers between environmentally sustainable assets and quantify the value-at-risk of the portfolios across various frequencies.

Design/methodology/approach

To accomplish these objectives, this paper utilizes a connectedness index-based TVP-VAR model and applies the wavelet-based VaR ratio to daily data spanning from January 2018 to September 2023.

Findings

The empirical findings reveal a notable increase in the connectedness index between green stocks and green bonds during the COVID-19 crisis, signifying evidence of a contagion effect. The portfolio’s risk ratio also exhibited a sharp rise amid the pandemic, particularly over medium and long-term horizons, driven by increased spillover among green assets. Notably, our analysis indicates that green bonds influence the connectedness system between green stocks and the value-at-risk ratio, reducing volatility spillover and portfolio risk ratios across various investment horizons. These results highlight the role of green bonds as an effective diversification asset against the risks associated with green equities.

Originality/value

This research investigates the dynamic connectedness and value-at-risk ratio between eight green sectoral renewable energy and non-energy equities and green bonds. We put forward some portfolio implications for green investors with an environmental consciousness who desire to decarbonize their portfolios and mitigate environmental issues.

Details

China Finance Review International, vol. ahead-of-print no. ahead-of-print
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 2044-1398

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 25 June 2024

Jiahao Zhang and Yu Wei

This study conducts a comparative analysis of the diversification effects of China's national carbon market (CEA) and the EU ETS Phase IV (EUA) within major commodity markets.

Abstract

Purpose

This study conducts a comparative analysis of the diversification effects of China's national carbon market (CEA) and the EU ETS Phase IV (EUA) within major commodity markets.

Design/methodology/approach

The study employs the TVP-VAR extension of the spillover index framework to scrutinize the information spillovers among the energy, agriculture, metal, and carbon markets. Subsequently, the study explores practical applications of these findings, emphasizing how investors can harness insights from information spillovers to refine their investment strategies.

Findings

First, the CEA provide ample opportunities for portfolio diversification between the energy, agriculture, and metal markets, a desirable feature that the EUA does not possess. Second, a portfolio comprising exclusively energy and carbon assets often exhibits the highest Sharpe ratio. Nevertheless, the inclusion of agricultural and metal commodities in a carbon-oriented portfolio may potentially compromise its performance. Finally, our results underscore the pronounced advantage of minimum spillover portfolios; particularly those that designed minimize net pairwise volatility spillover, in the context of China's national carbon market.

Originality/value

This study addresses the previously unexplored intersection of information spillovers and portfolio diversification in major commodity markets, with an emphasis on the role of CEA.

Details

China Finance Review International, vol. ahead-of-print no. ahead-of-print
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 2044-1398

Keywords

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