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Liquefied petroleum gas (LPG), known by its ecological qualities, making Algeria has since the 1980s carried out a policy of development of LPG fuel in substitution of traditional fuels and especially petrol. However, following a series of accidents (fires, explosions, etc). that occurred in 1999, 20 years after the introduction of the LPG in France these incidents led to the search for the strengthening of the safety of the installations by better or new technical and/or organizational measures. This strategy consists in establishing a balance between environmental protection and economic profitability while ensuring the safety aspect.

The approach used is quantitative risk analysis authors have identified the potential accident scenarios that consist of leakage and rupture of tanks depend on bow tie. According to the latter using PHAST software, to model these scenarios (thermal, overpressure and dispersion) and their effects on human beings and goods.

In this paper, it was noted that there are scenarios such as (jet fire, dispersion), are affected by atmospheric conditions (wind speed humidity), the stronger the wind, the higher the LPG spread unlike instant scenarios (1.3 s for the fireball and millisecond for the explosion) that have not been related to climatic conditions because they have a short duration on the one hand, and on the other hand, a safe distance is given in each phenomenon. Finally, some instructions for drivers and installers have been identified by protective and preventive action.

Based on a quantitative risk analysis, this work involves modelling potential accident scenarios such as (fireball, jet fire, flash fire and explosion) in the event of a gas leak and rupture in the tank. It aims to sensitize drivers and LPG kit installers, even to get a clear view on these accidental phenomena and how to avoid them.

Nowadays, artificial intelligence computational methods, such as knowledge-based systems, neural networks, genetic algorithms and fuzzy logic, have been increasingly applied to several industrial research studies, the purpose of this paper is to study the contribution of fuzzy and possibilistic techniques to quantitative risk analysis (QRA) in the presence of imperfect knowledge about the occurrence and consequences of accidental phenomena.

To solve the problem of uncertainties related to the elements of the accident scenario such as the frequency and severity of the consequences, the authors used fuzzy logic. Using this type of analysis, it is possible to visualize the contours of the dead or fuzzy injury by fireball thermal effect (first- and second-degree burn, death) and lesions caused by vapor cloud explosion overpressure (lung damage, eardrum rupture, head impact, whole-body displacement). The frequency and severity of fuzzy results are calculated by extended multiplication using the alpha-cuts method.

This research project aims to reflect the real situation in the in Amenas industrial area (SONATRACH company), specifically the liquefied petroleum gas storage tank On-Spec 05-V-411A, to deal with this type of risk. Using this analysis allows us to estimate the fuzzy individual risk using the approach of fuzzy logic to treating this uncertainty in the parameter information of accident scenarios. This index individuel risk (IR) was evaluated against the criterion of acceptability and then used for decision-making in the field of industrial risk analysis and evaluation.

The originality of the work is to identify the weak points of the classical QRA to solve the problem of the uncertainties related to the elements of the accident scenario such as the frequency and severity of the consequences to visualize the fuzzy risk contours. On the one hand and the development of software to calculate the probability of death by the overpressure effect and classify the most sensitive organs on the other hand. Given the importance of this study, it can be generalized for similar sites in the region.