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Liquefied petroleum gas (LPG), known by its ecological qualities, making Algeria has since the 1980s carried out a policy of development of LPG fuel in substitution of traditional fuels and especially petrol. However, following a series of accidents (fires, explosions, etc). that occurred in 1999, 20 years after the introduction of the LPG in France these incidents led to the search for the strengthening of the safety of the installations by better or new technical and/or organizational measures. This strategy consists in establishing a balance between environmental protection and economic profitability while ensuring the safety aspect.

The approach used is quantitative risk analysis authors have identified the potential accident scenarios that consist of leakage and rupture of tanks depend on bow tie. According to the latter using PHAST software, to model these scenarios (thermal, overpressure and dispersion) and their effects on human beings and goods.

In this paper, it was noted that there are scenarios such as (jet fire, dispersion), are affected by atmospheric conditions (wind speed humidity), the stronger the wind, the higher the LPG spread unlike instant scenarios (1.3 s for the fireball and millisecond for the explosion) that have not been related to climatic conditions because they have a short duration on the one hand, and on the other hand, a safe distance is given in each phenomenon. Finally, some instructions for drivers and installers have been identified by protective and preventive action.

Based on a quantitative risk analysis, this work involves modelling potential accident scenarios such as (fireball, jet fire, flash fire and explosion) in the event of a gas leak and rupture in the tank. It aims to sensitize drivers and LPG kit installers, even to get a clear view on these accidental phenomena and how to avoid them.

The research activity presented in this paper has the objective of developing models for the evaluation of technological risk and loss of production due to failures, which are among the criterions that enable the choice of optimal scenarios for energy supply. This activity is based on the European Project “Risk of Energy Availability: Common Corridors for Europe Supply Security” (REACCESS), which aims to develop an analytical tool to analyse scenarios for future secure European Union (EU) energy supply.

The paper proposes an innovative approach, since nowadays a generalised analytic model for risk assessment in large‐scale energetic systems does not exist. In particular, the methodology adopted includes models to assess risk for people safety, risk for the environment and availability for corridors and the related infrastructures. As regards technological risk, accidents producing loss of lives in the population and environmental damage are taken into account; while for the loss of production primary attention is paid to technical failures and maintenance.

Since the analytic models developed perform a large‐scale assessment, they must be flexible and simplified to adapt to different situations and to be easily updated when different future scenarios are investigated. Details of the analysis depend on the precision of data collected and inserted in the models. The damage assessment is affected by deficiency and uncertainties related to territorial and statistical data. Nevertheless, the outcomes obtained for each energy commodity are reasonable and often comparable to literature data.

Based on this study output, technological risk can be considered, more systematically than in the past, in the selection of EU strategies for future energy supply. The corridors social cost is included in future strategies selection, in addition to purely economical and environmental evaluations.

This study proposes targeted modernization of the Department of Defense (DoD's) Joint Forces Ammunition Logistics information system by implementing the optimized innovative information technology open architecture design and integrating Radio Frequency Identification Device data technologies and real-time optimization and control mechanisms as the critical technology components of the solution. The innovative information technology, which pursues the focused logistics, will be deployed in 36 months at the estimated cost of $568 million in constant dollars. We estimate that the Systems, Applications, Products (SAP)-based enterprise integration solution that the Army currently pursues will cost another $1.5 billion through the year 2014; however, it is unlikely to deliver the intended technical capabilities.

The purpose of this paper is to improve the efficiency of accident management from the angle of reducing highway accident response times while taking into account total daily work hours.

The authors developed a patrol beat scheduling model, which is formulated as a chance-constrained optimization model, with the objective of minimizing the sum of officer work hours. Along with the model, a simulation program was also developed to help evaluate the effectiveness of the model-generated beat schedule in terms of response times.

This study concluded that, first, the current manually designed beat schedule could be improved should the National Highway Police Bureau adopt the proposed model. Second, the total daily work hours of the model-generated schedule at the confidence level of 100 percent were 64 hours, 21 hours less than the average work hours recorded in the 2006 data, or about an improvement of 24 percent. Should the model be adopted, not only response times will be improved, the 24 percent reduction in work hours could be translated into a cut in personnel cost.

The scheduling model and simulation program are both built upon one-year historical data whose accuracy and completeness is prerequisite.

The proposed model can be adopted by other public service agencies such as fire departments, or emergency service centers. By replacing the historical data used in the study with their own data, agencies can evaluate the efficiency of their existing schedule or generate various schedules based on institutional needs.

This model utilizes historical accident data to generate optimal beat schedule and evaluate the efficiency of such schedule. Similar models have not been found in other studies.

The purpose of this paper is to estimate delivered hydrogen cost including both transport and expected accidents cost comparing compressed gas or liquid hydrogen road transport. The model allows to determine whether, in a given context, the risk of accidents is an influencing variable in the selection of the hydrogen transport mode. It also helps to select the lowest cost transport mode and route.

Transportation cost models are developed and integrated with a risk analysis model to determine expected accidents cost so that an overall delivered hydrogen cost can be computed. Alternative transport modes are compared on the basis of hydrogen demand, delivery distance and route type.

While safety cost in many cases can be considered negligible with respect to overall hydrogen transport cost, there are cases (high flow rate, long distance) where accident cost is relevant, especially in routes through densely populated areas. In such cases, factoring in accidents cost may significantly affect the break even point between CH2 and LH2 transport alternatives.

The paper only deals with proven road transportation methods (CH2 and LH2). Inclusion of alternative transport modes such as pipeline or hydrides is a future research goal.

Decision makers can examine the costs implied by hydrogen transportation alternatives in different economic scenarios factoring in safety costs to make informed decision.

Available hydrogen transportation cost models neglect any safety issue, while risk assessment models only consider accident consequences costs. This work integrates both views.

Previous research regarding shaping factors and major causes behind accidents in the construction field is reviewed. In particular, a hypothetical model is established to correlate activity time, cost and safety in the context of construction activity acceleration planning. Two demonstration cases are presented to illustrate the proposed theoretical model in the context of critical activity expedition planning. Further, a third case uses a 100-activity project to perform the global level total project time and cost analysis, identifying specific activity acceleration plans that would materialize the shortened total project time at the lowest total project cost.

This research proposes a safety-centric application framework to guide construction acceleration planning at both activity and project levels while taking sufficient preventive measures against safety hazards and accidents. As planning construction acceleration by factoring in safety constraints inevitably drives up cost, it is imperative to control increases in activity costs at the local level in connection with schedule acceleration planning while at the same time not compromising on safety. This research also addresses this critical question through performing global level total project time and cost analysis.

An application framework is proposed for guiding a planner through identifying accident shaping factors, obeying schedule acceleration rules and accounting for safety-related costs in attempts to mitigate hazardous situations on-site at both activity level (local) and project level (global), resulting in (1) minimizing the increase of total project cost in schedule acceleration while at the same time not compromising on safety at individual activities; (2) producing specific execution plans on each individual activity in terms of the amount of time to crash and the associated activity cost.

This study is original in developing theories and methods for evaluating the impact of safety constraints upon construction time and cost in activity acceleration planning and project time-cost analysis. The research fills a gap in knowledge in terms of how to factor in sufficient safety constraints while achieving project time and cost objectives on construction acceleration planning at both activity and project levels.

The purpose of this paper is to develop a multi-agent-based simulation model for the online opinion dissemination during hazardous chemical leakage emergencies into rivers in China, to explore an appropriate crisis information release policy of China’s government for controlling public panic.

In the proposed model, two fundamental attributes of crisis information, i.e., truthfulness (for true or false news) and attitude (for positive, neutral or negative opinion), are considered. Four major agents in the online community system, i.e., citizens, the government, media and opinion leaders, are included. Using four typical accidents of hazardous chemical leakage into rivers in China as case studies, insightful policy implications can be obtained for crisis management and panic control.

The news about the terrible potential damages from such a type of accidents will instantly arise wide-ranging public panic; therefore, the corresponding crisis information release policy should be carefully designed. It is strongly advised against publishing false news to temporarily conceal the accidents, which will seriously hurt the government’s reputation and agitate much larger-scale public panic in terms of degree and duration. To mitigate public panic, the true news especially about treatment measurements should be published immediately. If the government does nothing and releases no crisis information, the public panic will go out of control.

This paper only focuses on the crisis information release policies from the perspectives of the government. Furthermore, this study especially focuses on the cases in China, and extending the proposed model study for general contexts is an important direction to improve this study. Finally, the proposed model should be extended to other types of emergencies to further justify its generalization and universality, especially various natural catastrophes like storms, floods, tsunamis, etc.

This paper develops a multi-agent-based model for online public opinion dissemination in emergency to explore an appropriate crisis information release policy for controlling public panic stemming from hazardous chemicals leakage accidents into rivers. The proposed model makes major contributions to the literature from two perspectives. First, the crisis information about emergency accidents are divided into true and false news based on the truthfulness attribute, and into neutral, positive and negative emotions based on the attitude attribute. Second, the proposed model covers the main agents in the online virtual community.

The emergence of “black swans” represents (according to Taleb) “[…] our misunderstanding of the likelihood of surprises”. The purpose of this paper is to study accidents and disasters and the inherent misunderstanding and absence of awareness associated with the existence of black swans and their complex aetiology. Red teaming and scenario planning provide a methodology to explore the uncertainties and challenge of the mental models associated with accident and disaster aetiology.

The argument draws upon the successful application of red teaming and scenario planning in various domains noted in the literature and lessons learned from the failure to recognize black swans. An analysis of the literature illustrates how the salient characteristics of red teaming and scenario planning can be applied to the illumination of black swans to support risk, crisis and disaster management.

Recognizing the uncertainty resident within the safety and security problem space opens up the notion that more than one future is potentially open. It is argued that the inherent properties of red teaming, within the context of scenario planning, facilitates an effective approach to bring risk, crisis and disaster planners/managers together to discuss their concerns and explore the factors creating uncertainty and the emergence of black swans.

The value of red teaming (scenario planning) to challenge linear thinking and recognize the inherent uncertainty in the space of possibilities is well supported. Applied to the risk, crisis and disaster management domain, red teaming and scenario planning can provide insights into the emergence of black swans and thereby shape mitigation strategies.

Subway systems are highly susceptible to external disturbances from emergencies, triggering a series of consequences such as the paralysis of the internal network transportation functions, causing significant economic and safety losses to cities. Therefore, it is necessary to analyze the factors affecting the resilience of the subway system to reduce the impact of disaster incidents.

Using the interval type-2 fuzzy linguistic term set and the K-medoids clustering algorithm, this paper improves the Decision-Making Trial and Evaluation Laboratory (DEMATEL) method to construct a subway resilience factor analysis model for emergencies. Through comparative analysis, this study confirms the superior performance of the proposed approach in enhancing the precision of the DEMATEL method.

The results indicate that the operation and management level of emergency command organizations is the key resilience factors of subway operations in China. Furthermore, based on real case analyses, the corresponding suggestions and measures are put forward to improve the overall operation resilience level of the subway.

This paper identifies four emergency scenarios and 15 resilience factors affecting subway operations through literature review and expert consultation. The improved fuzzy DEMATEL method is applied to explore the levels of influence and causal mechanisms among the resilience factors of the subway system under the four emergency scenarios.