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1 – 10 of 51
Article
Publication date: 1 August 2019

Mohamed Seddik Hellas, Rachid Chaib and Ion Verzea

Nowadays, artificial intelligence computational methods, such as knowledge-based systems, neural networks, genetic algorithms and fuzzy logic, have been increasingly…

Abstract

Purpose

Nowadays, artificial intelligence computational methods, such as knowledge-based systems, neural networks, genetic algorithms and fuzzy logic, have been increasingly applied to several industrial research studies, the purpose of this paper is to study the contribution of fuzzy and possibilistic techniques to quantitative risk analysis (QRA) in the presence of imperfect knowledge about the occurrence and consequences of accidental phenomena.

Design/methodology/approach

To solve the problem of uncertainties related to the elements of the accident scenario such as the frequency and severity of the consequences, the authors used fuzzy logic. Using this type of analysis, it is possible to visualize the contours of the dead or fuzzy injury by fireball thermal effect (first- and second-degree burn, death) and lesions caused by vapor cloud explosion overpressure (lung damage, eardrum rupture, head impact, whole-body displacement). The frequency and severity of fuzzy results are calculated by extended multiplication using the alpha-cuts method.

Findings

This research project aims to reflect the real situation in the in Amenas industrial area (SONATRACH company), specifically the liquefied petroleum gas storage tank On-Spec 05-V-411A, to deal with this type of risk. Using this analysis allows us to estimate the fuzzy individual risk using the approach of fuzzy logic to treating this uncertainty in the parameter information of accident scenarios. This index individuel risk (IR) was evaluated against the criterion of acceptability and then used for decision-making in the field of industrial risk analysis and evaluation.

Originality/value

The originality of the work is to identify the weak points of the classical QRA to solve the problem of the uncertainties related to the elements of the accident scenario such as the frequency and severity of the consequences to visualize the fuzzy risk contours. On the one hand and the development of software to calculate the probability of death by the overpressure effect and classify the most sensitive organs on the other hand. Given the importance of this study, it can be generalized for similar sites in the region.

Details

Journal of Engineering, Design and Technology , vol. 18 no. 1
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1726-0531

Keywords

Abstract

Details

Handbook of Transport and the Environment
Type: Book
ISBN: 978-0-080-44103-0

Book part
Publication date: 19 November 2003

Ian Savage

Abstract

Details

Handbook of Transport and the Environment
Type: Book
ISBN: 978-0-080-44103-0

Content available
Article
Publication date: 14 April 2022

Son Nguyen, Peggy Shu-Ling Chen and Yuquan Du

Container shipping is a crucial component of the global supply chain that is affected by a large range of operational risks with high uncertainty, threatening the…

Abstract

Purpose

Container shipping is a crucial component of the global supply chain that is affected by a large range of operational risks with high uncertainty, threatening the stability of service, manufacture, distribution and profitability of involved parties. However, quantitative risk analysis (QRA) of container shipping operational risk (CSOR) is being obstructed by the lack of a well-established theoretical structure to guide deeper research efforts. This paper proposes a methodological framework to strengthen the quality and reliability of CSOR analysis (CSORA).

Design/methodology/approach

Focusing on addressing uncertainties, the framework establishes a solid, overarching and updated basis for quantitative CSOR analysis. The framework consists of clearly defined elements and processes, including knowledge establishing, information gathering, aggregating multiple sources of data (social/deliberative and mathematical/statistical), calculating risk and uncertainty level, and presenting and interpreting quantified results. The framework is applied in a case study of three container shipping companies in Vietnam.

Findings

Various methodological contributions were rendered regarding CSOR characteristics, settings of analysis models, handling of uncertainties and result interpretation. The empirical study also generated valuable managerial implications regarding CSOR management policies.

Originality/value

This paper fills the gap of an updated framework for CSOR analysis considering the recent advancements of container shipping operations and risk management. The framework can be used by both practitioners as a tool for CSOR analysis and scholars as a test bench to facilitate the comparison and development of QRA models.

Details

Maritime Business Review, vol. ahead-of-print no. ahead-of-print
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 2397-3757

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 4 February 2021

Erkki K. Laitinen

The purpose of this study is to analyze the business-failure-process risk from two perspectives. First, a simplified model of the loss-generation process in a failing firm…

Abstract

Purpose

The purpose of this study is to analyze the business-failure-process risk from two perspectives. First, a simplified model of the loss-generation process in a failing firm is developed to show that the linear system embedded in accounting makes financial ratios to depend linearly on each other. Second, a simplified model of the development of the risk during the failure process is developed to introduce a new concept of failure-process-risk line (FPRL) to assess the systematic failure risk of a firm. Empirical evidence from Finnish firms is used to test two hypotheses.

Design/methodology/approach

This study makes use of simple mathematical modeling to depict the loss-generation process and the development of failure risk during the failure process. Hypotheses are extracted from the mathematical results for empirical testing. Time-series data originally from 13,082 non-failing and 515 failing Finnish are used to test the hypotheses. Analysis of variance F statistics and Mann–Whitney U test are used in testing of the hypotheses.

Findings

The findings show that the linear time-series correlations are generally higher in failing than in non-failing firms because of the loss-generation process. The FPRL depicted efficiently the systematic failure-process risk through the beta coefficient. Beta coefficient efficiently discriminated between failing and non-failing firms. The difference between the last-period risk estimate and FPRL was largely determined by the approximated growth rate of the periodic failure risk.

Research limitations/implications

The loss-generation process is based on a simple cash-based approach ignoring the growth of the firm. In future research, the model could be generalized to a growing firm in an accrual-based framework. The failure-process risk is assumed to grow at a constant rate. In further studies, more general models could be applied. Empirical analyses are based on simple statistical methods and tests. More advanced methods could be used to analyze the data.

Practical implications

This study shows that failure process makes the time-series correlation between financial ratios to increase making their signals of failure consistent and allowing the use of static classification models to assess failure risk. The beta coefficient is a useful tool to reflect systematic failure-process risk. In addition, it can be used in practice to warn a firm about ongoing failure process.

Originality/value

To the best of the author’s knowledge, this is the first study analyzing systematically business-failure-process risk. It is first in introducing a mathematical loss-generation process and the FPRL based on the beta coefficient assessing the systematic failure risk.

Details

Journal of Financial Reporting and Accounting, vol. 19 no. 4
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1985-2517

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 15 March 2013

L. Manning and J.M. Soon

The purpose of this paper is to review the methods for assessing food safety risk within a food safety plan.

2481

Abstract

Purpose

The purpose of this paper is to review the methods for assessing food safety risk within a food safety plan.

Design/methodology/approach

The research involved analysis of both qualitative and quantitative methods of risk assessment.

Findings

Risk assessment is a key element of the HACCP approach to food safety. It requires food business operators and those on HACCP teams to determine both the acceptable level of contamination and the risk for the food business, and ultimately the consumer. The choice of food safety risk assessment model is crucial to an organisation. The mechanisms to determine what is acceptable can be a combination of scientific based and value based criteria and utilise qualitative or semi‐quantitative approaches. Whilst fuzzy logic has a place in making risk assessment more quantitative; specific software tools are required to enable quantitative risk assessment especially where what is acceptable at one point could, subject to other factors later in the supply chain, change to an unacceptable level of risk to the consumer. Quantitative mechanisms are required to make these decisions at organisational, or indeed at policy level, fully transparent.

Originality/value

This research is of academic value and of value to policy makers and practitioners in the food supply chain.

Details

British Food Journal, vol. 115 no. 3
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 0007-070X

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 26 February 2019

Shahab Shoar, Farnad Nasirzadeh and Hamid Reza Zarandi

The purpose of this paper is to present a fault tree (FT)-based approach for quantitative risk analysis in the construction industry that can take into account both…

Abstract

Purpose

The purpose of this paper is to present a fault tree (FT)-based approach for quantitative risk analysis in the construction industry that can take into account both objective and subjective uncertainties.

Design/methodology/approach

In this research, the identified basic events (BEs) are first categorized based on the availability of historical data into probabilistic and possibilistic. The probabilistic and possibilistic events are represented by probability distributions and fuzzy numbers, respectively. Hybrid uncertainty analysis is then performed through a combination of Monte Carlo simulation and fuzzy set theory. The probability of occurrence of the top event is finally calculated using the proposed FT-based hybrid uncertainty analysis method.

Findings

The efficiency of the proposed method is demonstrated by implementing in a real steel structure project. A quantitative risk assessment is performed for weld cracks, taking into account of both types of uncertainties. An importance analysis is finally performed to evaluate the contribution of each BE to the probability of occurrence of weld cracks and adopt appropriate response strategies.

Research limitations/implications

In this research, the impact of objective (aleatory) dependence between the occurrences of different BEs and subjective (epistemic) dependence between estimates of the epistemically uncertain probabilities of some BEs are not considered. Moreover, there exist limitations to the application of fuzzy set rules, which were used for aggregating experts’ opinions and ranking purposes of the BEs in the FT model. These limitations can be investigated through further research.

Originality/value

It is believed that the proposed hybrid uncertainty analysis method presents a robust and powerful tool for quantitative risk analysis, as both types of uncertainties are taken into account appropriately.

Article
Publication date: 28 September 2010

Agnieszka Sitko‐Lutek, Supakij Chuancharoen, Arkhom Sukpitikul and Kongkiti Phusavat

The paper aims to examine existing information flows formally and informally within a customer complaint handling process, and to identify possible improvement areas to…

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Abstract

Purpose

The paper aims to examine existing information flows formally and informally within a customer complaint handling process, and to identify possible improvement areas to strengthen the effectiveness of this process in the workplace. These objectives are derived from the fact more than 80 percent of complaints have taken longer than the targeted timeframe during the past two years at the plant under study. The study is part of the plant's overall efforts in improving quality and customer satisfaction.

Design/methodology/approach

The methodology involves document reviews (i.e. a customer complaint handling procedure), discussion groups and interviews, and the use of the UCInet software for the social network analysis or SNA formulation. Key features such as connection strength, point connectivity, and degree centrality are examined.

Findings

The SNA shows that everybody associated with this process is connected. For a potential downside, customer service and quality assurance engineers appear to be critical. Their roles and responsibilities imply that, in addition to becoming technical experts, they have to be responsive and active in disseminating information to other staffs. Furthermore, if an engineer in charge of process engineering is absent or does not pass along information, at least four staffs will be disconnected from the network. Process engineering leader is also viewed as critical. He should actively participate and constantly engage in resolving a customer complaint.

Research limitations/implications

The SNA can compliment process improvement by focusing on the roles and the importance of key persons within a process. The reason is that an improvement should focus on both a procedure (i.e. step‐by‐step activities and tasks) and persons (e.g. connectivity, interaction, and information bottleneck position). In other words, the paper underlines potential applications of the SNA on strengthening a quality management system (i.e. ISO 9001:2008). Therefore, the SNA, given its flexible applications, can emerge as an important management tool in the areas of quality management.

Practical implications

All top executives from the quality and reliability, and manufacturing functions view the SNA positively. The findings help them visualize the current practices at all levels when dealing with a customer complaint and identify the areas in which more attentions have to be made for a more effective process on complaint handling. For example, customer service engineer should be in the contact with all persons dealing with the complaint handling process. Process engineer leader needs to become more proactive in sharing a complaint and in checking its status more constantly.

Originality/value

The case study highlights the importance of the SNA when attempting to improve an operational process that requires two or more functions working together.

Details

Industrial Management & Data Systems, vol. 110 no. 9
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 0263-5577

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 1 August 1997

Steve Frosdick

Explores the thesis that the techniques of risk analysis are necessary but in themselves insufficient components of the management of risk process. Begins by exploring the…

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Abstract

Explores the thesis that the techniques of risk analysis are necessary but in themselves insufficient components of the management of risk process. Begins by exploring the debate about risk. Proposes a definition of risk analysis, suggesting that the term refers to the sum of risk identification, estimation and evaluation. Takes the three component headings as the frameworks. Within each framework, gives an overview followed by an outline of the more common and important techniques. Discusses the issues of sufficiency and draws conclusions. Refers to the decision making techniques of risk management and sets out the overall conclusions substantiating the thesis.

Details

Disaster Prevention and Management: An International Journal, vol. 6 no. 3
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 0965-3562

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 4 November 2014

Athakorn Kengpol, Sopida Tuammee and Markku Tuominen

The purpose of this paper is to develop a framework for route selection in multimodal transportation which can reduce cost, lead time, risk and CO2 emission in multimodal…

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Abstract

Purpose

The purpose of this paper is to develop a framework for route selection in multimodal transportation which can reduce cost, lead time, risk and CO2 emission in multimodal transportation systems.

Design/methodology/approach

This research proposes the development of a framework for route selection in multimodal transportation that includes a six-phase framework to select an optimal multimodal transportation route. The first phase is to collect the data of each route and select the origin and destination. The second phase is to calculate time and cost of each route by using a multimodal transport cost-model. In the third phase, the CO2 emissions are calculated based upon the 2006 guidelines of Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. The fourth phase proposes an integrated quantitative risk assessment, analytic hierarchy process (AHP) and data envelopment analysis methodology to evaluate the multimodal transportation risk. The fifth phase is to prioritize criteria by using the AHP which can be used in the objective function. The final phase is to calculate the optimal route by using the zero-one goal programming.

Findings

The aims of the model are to minimize transportation costs, transportation time, risk and CO2 emission.

Practical implications

The approach has been tested on a realistic multimodal transportation service, originating from Bangkok in Thailand to a destination at Da Nang port in Vietnam. The results have shown that the approach can provide guidance in choosing the lowest cost route in accordance with other criteria, and to minimize the CO2 emission effectively.

Originality/value

The contribution of this research lies in the development of a new decision support approach that is flexible and applicable to logistics service providers, in selecting multimodal transportation route under the multi-criteria in term of cost, time, risk and importantly the environmental impact.

1 – 10 of 51