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Article
Publication date: 17 April 2024

Prince Kumar Maurya, Rohit Bansal and Anand Kumar Mishra

This paper aims to investigate the dynamic volatility connectedness among 13 G20 countries by using the volatility indices.

Abstract

Purpose

This paper aims to investigate the dynamic volatility connectedness among 13 G20 countries by using the volatility indices.

Design/methodology/approach

The connectedness approach based on the time-varying parameter vector autoregression model has been used to investigate the linkage. The period of study is from 1 January 2014 to 20 April 2023.

Findings

This analysis revealed that volatility connectedness among the countries during COVID-19 and Russia–Ukraine conflict had increased significantly. Furthermore, analysis has indicated that investors had not anticipated the World Health Organization announcement of COVID-19 as a global pandemic. Contrarily, investors had anticipated the Russian invasion of Ukraine, evident in a significant rise in volatility before and after the invasion. In addition, the transmission of volatility is from developed to developing countries. Developed countries are NET volatility transmitters, whereas developing countries are NET volatility receivers. Finally, the ordinary least square regression result suggests that the volatility connectedness index is informative of stock market dynamics.

Originality/value

The connectedness approach has been widely used to estimate the dynamic connectedness among market indices, cryptocurrencies, sectoral indices, enegy commodities and metals. To the best of the authors’ knowledge, none of the previous studies have directly used the volatility indices to measure the volatility connectedness. Hence, this study is the first of its kind that has used volatility indices to measure the volatility connectedness among the countries.

Details

Studies in Economics and Finance, vol. ahead-of-print no. ahead-of-print
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1086-7376

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 12 April 2024

Dimitrios Dimitriou, Eleftherios Goulas, Christos Kallandranis, Alexandros Tsioutsios and Thi Ngoc Bich Thi Ngoc Ta

This paper aims to examine potential diversification benefits between Eurozone (i.e. EURO STOXX 50) and key Asia markets: HSI (Hong Kong), KOSPI (South Korea), NIKKEI 225 (Japan…

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Abstract

Purpose

This paper aims to examine potential diversification benefits between Eurozone (i.e. EURO STOXX 50) and key Asia markets: HSI (Hong Kong), KOSPI (South Korea), NIKKEI 225 (Japan) and TSEC (Taiwan). The sample covers the period from 04-01-2008 to 19-10-2023 in daily frequency.

Design/methodology/approach

The empirical investigation is based on the wavelet coherence analysis, which is a localized correlation coefficient in the time and frequency domain.

Findings

The results provide evidence that long-term diversification benefits exist between EURO STOXX and NIKKEI, EURO STOXX and KOSPI (after 2015) and there are signs for the pair and EURO STOXX-TSEC (after 2014). During the short term, there are signs of diversification benefits during the sample period. However, during the medium term, the diversification benefits seem to diminish.

Originality/value

These results have crucial implications for investors regarding the benefits of international portfolio diversification.

Details

Journal of Asia Business Studies, vol. ahead-of-print no. ahead-of-print
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1558-7894

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 19 April 2024

Oguzhan Ozcelebi, Jose Perez-Montiel and Carles Manera

Might the impact of the financial stress on exchange markets be asymmetric and exposed to regime changes? Departing from the existing literature, highlighting that the domestic…

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Abstract

Purpose

Might the impact of the financial stress on exchange markets be asymmetric and exposed to regime changes? Departing from the existing literature, highlighting that the domestic and foreign financial stress in terms of money market have substantial effects on exchange market, this paper aims to investigate the impacts of the bond yield spreads of three emerging countries (Mexico, Russia, and South Korea) on their exchange market pressure indices using monthly observations for the period 2010:01–2019:12. Additionally, the paper analyses the impact of bond yield spread of the US on the exchange market pressure indices of the three mentioned emerging countries. The authors hypothesized whether the negative and positive changes in the bond yield spreads have varying effects on exchange market pressure indices.

Design/methodology/approach

To address the research question, we measure the bond yield spread of the selected countries by using the interest rate spread between 10-year and 3-month treasury bills. At the same time, the exchange market pressure index is proxied by the index introduced by Desai et al. (2017). We base the empirical analysis on nonlinear vector autoregression (VAR) models and an asymmetric quantile-based approach.

Findings

The results of the impulse response functions indicate that increases/decreases in the bond yield spreads of Mexico, Russia and South Korea raise/lower their exchange market pressure, and the effects of shocks in the bond yield spreads of the US also lead to depreciation/appreciation pressures in the local currencies of the emerging countries. The quantile connectedness analysis, which allows for the role of regimes, reveals that the weights of the domestic and foreign bond yield spread in explaining variations of exchange market pressure indices are higher when exchange market pressure indices are not in a normal regime, indicating the role of extreme development conditions in the exchange market. The quantile regression model underlines that an increase in the domestic bond yield spread leads to a rise in its exchange market pressure index during all exchange market pressure periods in Mexico, and the relevant effects are valid during periods of high exchange market pressure in Russia. Our results also show that Russia differs from Mexico and South Korea in terms of the factors influencing the demand for domestic currency, and we have demonstrated the role of domestic macroeconomic and financial conditions in surpassing the effects of US financial stress. More specifically, the impacts of the domestic and foreign financial stress vary across regimes and are asymmetric.

Originality/value

This study enriches the literature on factors affecting the exchange market pressure of emerging countries. The results have significant economic implications for policymakers, indicating that the exchange market pressure index may trigger a financial crisis and economic recession.

Details

International Journal of Emerging Markets, vol. ahead-of-print no. ahead-of-print
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1746-8809

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 9 January 2024

Siti Nurhidayah Mohd Roslen, Mei-Shan Chua and Rafiatul Adlin Hj Mohd Ruslan

The purpose of this study is to empirically investigate the asymmetric effects of financial risk on Sukuk market development for a sample of Malaysian countries over the period of…

Abstract

Purpose

The purpose of this study is to empirically investigate the asymmetric effects of financial risk on Sukuk market development for a sample of Malaysian countries over the period of 2010–2021.

Design/methodology/approach

This study refers to the International Country Risk Guide (ICRG) in determining the financial risk factors to be studied in addition to the Malaysia financial stress index (FSI) to capture changes in financial risk level. The authors use the nonlinear autoregressive distributed lag (NARDL) model to tackle the nonlinear relationships between identified financial risk variables and Sukuk market development.

Findings

The results suggest the existence of a long-run relationship between foreign debt service stability, international liquidity stability (ILS), exchange rate stability (ERS) and financial stress level with the Sukuk market development in Malaysia. Indeed, higher ILS and ERS will boost Sukuk market size, whereas higher foreign debt services and financial stress are negatively related to Sukuk market development. Findings also indicate that the long-run positive and negative impacts of identified financial risk components on Sukuk market development are statistically different. Taking into account the role of the Sukuk market in facilitating Malaysia’s economic growth, the country should aim to keep the foreign debt-to-GDP ratio at a sustainable level.

Research limitations/implications

This study points to three possible directions for future research. The first is the differential impact of financial risk components on Sukuk issuance for different Sukuk structures. As more data becomes available in the future, this area could be further explored by conducting the above analysis for different combinations of Sukuk structures and currency denominations. In addition, future researchers could also consider exploring the variability of financial risk impacts through comparative studies of the leading Sukuk-issuing countries to account for differences in regulatory frameworks and supporting infrastructure.

Practical implications

This study provides valuable practical and policy implications for strengthening the growth of the Sukuk market. While benefiting from the diversification benefits of funding sources to finance private or government projects and developments, Malaysia should remain vigilant to global economic conditions, foreign exchange markets and financial stress levels, as all of these factors may significantly influence investor sentiment and the rate of return offered by Sukuk issuance.

Originality/value

The use of the NARDL approach, which investigates the long-run effects of financial risk factors on Sukuk market development in Malaysia, makes this study a valuable addition to the literature, as there has been little research into the asymmetric effects of those variables on Sukuk market development using samples from emerging Asian markets.

Details

Journal of Islamic Accounting and Business Research, vol. ahead-of-print no. ahead-of-print
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1759-0817

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 2 February 2024

Kobana Abukari, Erin Oldford and Vijay Jog

The authors evaluate the Sell in May effect in the Canadian context to comprehensively explore the Sell in May effect as well as its interactions with the size effect and risk and…

Abstract

Purpose

The authors evaluate the Sell in May effect in the Canadian context to comprehensively explore the Sell in May effect as well as its interactions with the size effect and risk and with multiple indices.

Design/methodology/approach

The authors use ordinary least squares (OLS) regressions to examine the Sell in May effect and Huber M-estimation to handle potential outliers. They also use the generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity (GARCH) models to explore the role of risk in the Sell in May effect.

Findings

The results demonstrate that the Sell in May effect is present in all three main Canadian stock market indices. More telling, the anomaly is strongest in small cap indices and in indices that give equal weighting to small and large cap stocks. They do not find that the effect is driven by risk.

Originality/value

While several papers have explored the Sell in May phenomenon in several countries, little scholarly attention has been paid to this effect in Canada and to its interaction with the size effect. The authors contribute to the literature by examining of the interactions between Sell in May and the size effect in Canada. They examine the Sell in May effect using CFMRC value-weighted and equally weighted indices of all Canadian companies. They also incorporate in their analysis the role of risk.

Details

Managerial Finance, vol. ahead-of-print no. ahead-of-print
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 0307-4358

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 7 February 2024

Luccas Assis Attílio, Joao Ricardo Faria and Mauricio Prado

The authors investigate the impact of the US stock market on the economies of the BRICS and major industrialized economies (G7).

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Abstract

Purpose

The authors investigate the impact of the US stock market on the economies of the BRICS and major industrialized economies (G7).

Design/methodology/approach

The authors construct the world economy and the vulnerability between economies using three economic integration variables: bilateral trade, bilateral direct investment and bilateral equity positions. Global vector autoregressive (GVAR) empirical studies usually adopt trade integration to estimate models. The authors complement these studies by using bilateral financial flows.

Findings

The authors summarize the results in four points: (1) financial integration variables increase the effect of the US stock market on the BRICS and G7, (2) the US shock produces similar responses in these groups regarding industrial production, stock markets and confidence but different responses regarding domestic currencies: in the BRICS, the authors detect appreciation of the currencies, while in the G7, the authors find depreciation, (3) G7 stock markets and policy rates are more sensitive to the US shock than the BRICS and (4) the estimates point out to heterogeneities such as the importance of industrial production to the transmission shock in Japan and China, the exchange rate to India, Japan and the UK, the interest rates to the Eurozone and the UK and confidence to Brazil, South Africa and Canada.

Research limitations/implications

The results reinforce the importance of taking into account different levels of economic development.

Originality/value

The authors construct the world economy and the vulnerability between economies using three economic integration variables: bilateral trade, bilateral direct investment and bilateral equity positions. GVAR empirical studies usually adopt trade integration to estimate models. The authors complement these studies by using bilateral financial flows.

Details

Journal of Economic Studies, vol. ahead-of-print no. ahead-of-print
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 0144-3585

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 22 December 2023

Xiuying Chen, Jiahong Zhu and Sheng Liu

The reform and opening-up of capital market is valued for promoting sustainable development, while its impact presented as the form of deregulation of short-selling on the green…

Abstract

Purpose

The reform and opening-up of capital market is valued for promoting sustainable development, while its impact presented as the form of deregulation of short-selling on the green innovation of enterprises in developing countries remains unclear. The purpose of this study is to outline the significance of gradual reform of financial markets in developing countries for low-carbon transformation and provide implications for achieving carbon peaking and carbon neutrality goals.

Design/methodology/approach

Based on the green subdivided patent data and financial data of China’s A-share listed companies, this paper takes the implementation of securities margin trading program as a quasi-natural experiment and applies the difference-in-differences (DID) model to examine the impact of deregulation of short-selling constraints on the enterprises’ green transformation.

Findings

The findings reveal that the initiating securities margin trading program significantly enhances the green innovation performance of enterprises. These findings are valid after performing a series of robustness tests such as the parallel trend test, the placebo test and the methods to exclude other policy interference. Mechanism analyses demonstrate a two-faceted effect of the securities margin trading program on the green innovation of enterprises, in which short-selling policy increases the pressure on capital market deregulation and meanwhile induces the environmental protection investment. The heterogeneity results demonstrate that the impulsive effect imposed by securities margin trading program is more significant in experimental group samples with characteristics of lower financing constraints, belonging to heavy polluting industries and possessing better environmental supervision capability.

Originality/value

First, previous studies have focused on the impact of financial policies implemented by banking institutions on the green innovation of enterprises, but few literatures have explored the validity of relaxing short-selling restrictions or opening the capital market in the field of enterprise’s green transformation in developing country. From the view of securities market reform, this paper broadens the incentive and supervision effects of the relaxation of short-selling control on enterprise’s green innovation performance after the implementation of securities financing and securities lending policy in China’s capital market. Second, previous studies have explored the impact of command-and-control environmental regulations, as well as market-incentivized environmental regulations such as green finance, low-carbon pilots and environmental tax reform, on the green transition of enterprises. Recently the role of the securities market in the green development of enterprises has received more attention in academia. The pilot of margin financing and securities lending is essentially a market-incentivized regulatory tool, but there is few in-depth research on how it affects the green innovation of enterprises. This paper enriches the research on whether the market incentive financial regulation policy can contribute to the green transformation of enterprises under the Porter hypothesis. Third, some previous studies used the ordinary panel regression model to explore the impact of financial policy on enterprise’s innovation performance. However, due to the potential endogenous problems of the estimated model, it might get biased conclusions. Therefore, based on the method of quasi-natural experiment, this paper selects the margin trading pilot policy as an exogenous shock to solve the endogenous or reverse causality problem in traditional measurement model and applies the DID model to study the relationship between core indicator variables.

Details

Nankai Business Review International, vol. ahead-of-print no. ahead-of-print
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 2040-8749

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 14 July 2023

Yang Gao, Wanqi Zheng and Yaojun Wang

This study aims to explore the risk spillover effects among different sectors of the Chinese stock market after the outbreak of COVID-19 from both Internet sentiment and price…

136

Abstract

Purpose

This study aims to explore the risk spillover effects among different sectors of the Chinese stock market after the outbreak of COVID-19 from both Internet sentiment and price fluctuations.

Design/methodology/approach

The authors develop four indicators used for risk contagion analysis, including Internet investors and news sentiments constructed by the FinBERT model, together with realized and jump volatilities yielded by high-frequency data. The authors also apply the time-varying parameter vector autoregressive (TVP-VAR) model-based and the tail-based connectedness framework to investigate the interdependence of tail risk during catastrophic events.

Findings

The empirical analysis provides meaningful results related to the COVID-19 pandemic, stock market conditions and tail behavior. The results show that after the outbreak of COVID-19, the connectivity between risk spillovers in China's stock market has grown, indicating the increased instability of the connected system and enhanced connectivity in the tail. The changes in network structure during COVID-19 pandemic are not only reflected by the increased spillover connectivity but also by the closer relationships between some industries. The authors also found that major public events could significantly impact total connectedness. In addition, spillovers and network structures vary with market conditions and tend to exhibit a highly connected network structure during extreme market status.

Originality/value

The results confirm the connectivity between sentiments and volatilities spillovers in China's stock market, especially in the tails. The conclusion further expands the practical application and theoretical framework of behavioral finance and also lays a theoretical basis for investors to focus on the practical application of volatility prediction and risk management across stock sectors.

Details

China Finance Review International, vol. ahead-of-print no. ahead-of-print
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 2044-1398

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 1 May 2024

Shailendra Singh, Mahesh Sarva and Nitin Gupta

The purpose of this paper is to systematically analyze the literature around regulatory compliance and market manipulation in capital markets through the use of bibliometrics and…

Abstract

Purpose

The purpose of this paper is to systematically analyze the literature around regulatory compliance and market manipulation in capital markets through the use of bibliometrics and propose future research directions. Under the domain of capital markets, this theme is a niche area of research where greater academic investigations are required. Most of the research is fragmented and limited to a few conventional aspects only. To address this gap, this study engages in a large-scale systematic literature review approach to collect and analyze the research corpus in the post-2000 era.

Design/methodology/approach

The big data corpus comprising research articles has been extracted from the scientific Scopus database and analyzed using the VoSviewer application. The literature around the subject has been presented using bibliometrics to give useful insights on the most popular research work and articles, top contributing journals, authors, institutions and countries leading to identification of gaps and potential research areas.

Findings

Based on the review, this study concludes that, even in an era of global market integration and disruptive technological advancements, many important aspects of this subject remain significantly underexplored. Over the past two decades, research has lagged behind the evolution of capital market crime and market regulations. Finally, based on the findings, the study suggests important future research directions as well as a few research questions. This includes market manipulation, market regulations and new-age technologies, all of which could be very useful to researchers in this field and generate key inputs for stock market regulators.

Research limitations/implications

The limitation of this research is that it is based on Scopus database so the possibility of omission of some literature cannot be completely ruled out. More advanced machine learning techniques could be applied to decode the finer aspects of the studies undertaken so far.

Practical implications

Increased integration among global markets, fast-paced technological disruptions and complexity of financial crimes in stock markets have put immense pressure on market regulators. As economies and equity markets evolve, good research investigations can aid in a better understanding of market manipulation and regulatory compliance. The proposed research directions will be very useful to researchers in this field as well as generate key inputs for stock market regulators to deal with market misbehavior.

Originality/value

This study has adopted a period-wise broad-based scientific approach to identify some of the most pertinent gaps in the subject and has proposed practical areas of study to strengthen the literature in the said field.

Details

Qualitative Research in Financial Markets, vol. ahead-of-print no. ahead-of-print
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1755-4179

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 13 December 2023

Huimin Jing and Yixin Zhu

This paper aims to explore the impact of cycle superposition on bank liquidity risk under different levels of financial openness so that banks can better manage their liquidity…

Abstract

Purpose

This paper aims to explore the impact of cycle superposition on bank liquidity risk under different levels of financial openness so that banks can better manage their liquidity risk. Meanwhile, it can also provide some ideas for banks in other emerging economies to better cope with the shocks of the global financial cycle.

Design/methodology/approach

Employing the monthly data of 16 commercial banks in China from 2005 to 2021 and based on the time-varying parameter vector autoregressive model with stochastic volatility (TVP-SV-VAR) model, the authors first examine whether the cycle superposition can magnify the impact of China's financial cycle on bank liquidity risk. Subsequently, the authors investigate the impact of different levels of financial openness on cycle superposition amplification. Finally, the shock of the financial cycle of the world's major economies on the liquidity risk of Chinese banks is also empirically analyzed.

Findings

Cycle superposition can magnify the impact of China's financial cycle on bank liquidity risk. However, there are significant differences under different levels of financial openness. Compared with low financial openness, in the period of high financial openness, the magnifying effect of cycle superposition is strengthened in the short term but obviously weakened in the long run. In addition, the authors' findings also demonstrate that although the United States is the main shock country, the influence of other developed economies, such as Japan and Eurozone countries, cannot be ignored.

Originality/value

Firstly, the cycle superposition index is constructed. Secondly, the authors supplement the literature by providing evidence that the association between cycle superposition and bank liquidity risk also depends on financial openness. Finally, the dominant countries of the global financial cycle have been rejudged.

Details

Kybernetes, vol. ahead-of-print no. ahead-of-print
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 0368-492X

Keywords

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