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The purpose of the paper is to study the relevance of macroprudential policies (MPPs) in influencing bank lending in small open economies with dual banking systems.

In the analysis, the author employed the dynamic panel data methodology as compared to alternate techniques since it is able to address potential endogeneity challenges.

Using quarterly data from the period 2002–2020, the author finds that MPPs are highly effective in containing the growth of public credit, whereas its impact on private credit is much less effective. The disaggregated findings reveal that macroprudential measures are less effective in containing the growth of private credit by Islamic banks.

The majority of studies on MPPs are focused on emerging and advanced economies, limiting their policy appeal from the standpoint of small open economies. In this connection, this paper contributes to the literature on the relevance of such policies for a small open economy with a dual banking system and significant hydrocarbon exports. The paper's analysis therefore holds relevance for similar economies, both in the region and elsewhere, on the role and relevance of MPPs with emphasis on Islamic banks.

This study aims to test the dynamic impact of public debt and economic growth on newly democratized African countries (South Africa and Namibia) and compare the findings with those of newly democratized European countries (Germany and Ukraine) during the period 1990–2022.

The methodology involves three stages: identifying the appropriate transition variable, assessing the linearity between public debt and economic growth and selecting the order m of the transition function. The linearity test helps identify the nature of relationships between public debt and economic growth. The wild cluster bootstrap-Lagrange Multiplier test is used to evaluate the model’s appropriateness. All these tests would be executed using the Lagrange Multiplier type of test.

The results signify the policy switch, as the authors find that the relationship between public debt and economic growth is characterized by two transitions that symbolize that the current stage of the relationship is beyond the U-shape; however, an S-shape. The results show that for newly democratized African countries, the threshold during the first waves was 50% of GDP, represented by a U-shape, which then transits to an inverted U-shape with a threshold of 65% of GDP. Then, for the European case, it was 60% of GDP, which is now 72% of GDP.

The findings suggest that an escalating level of public debt has a negative impact on economic growth; therefore, it is important to implement fiscal discipline, prioritize government spending and reduce reliance on debt financing. This can be achieved by focusing on revenue generation, implementing effective taxation policies, reducing wasteful expenditures and promoting investment and productivity-enhancing measures.

Financial stability has become a focal point for central banks since the global financial crisis. However, the optimal mix between monetary and financial stability policies remains unclear. In this study, the “soft” approach to such policy mix was tested – how often monetary policy (in inflation reports) analyses financial stability issues. This paper aims to discuss the aforementioned objective.

A total of 648 inflation reports published by 11 central banks from post-communist countries in 1998-2019 were reviewed using a text-mining method.

Results show that financial stability topics (mainly cyclical aspects of systemic risk) on average account for only 2%of inflation reports’ content. Although this share has grown somewhat since the global financial crisis (in CZ, HU and PL), it still remains at a low level. Thus, not enough evidence was found on the use of a “soft” policy mix in post-communist countries.

Given the strong interactions between price and financial stability, this paper emphasizes the need to increase the attention of monetary policymakers to financial stability issues.

The study combines two research areas, i.e. monetary policy and modern text mining techniques on a sample of post-communist countries, something which to the best of the authors’ knowledge has not been sufficiently explored in the literature before.

This paper aims to assess the long-run drivers and short-term dynamics of real house prices in Sweden for 1986Q1 to 2016Q4. More specifically, the author examines the extent to which real house prices are determined by affordability, demographics and asset price factors.

The author conducts a cointegration analysis and applies a vector autoregression model to examine the long- and short-run responsiveness of Swedish real house prices to a number of key categories of fundamental variables.

The empirical results indicate that house prices will increase in the long run by 1.04 per cent in response to a 1 per cent increase in household real disposable income, whereas real after-tax mortgage interest and real effective exchange rates show average long-term effects of approximately – 8 and – 0.7 per cent, respectively. In addition, the results show that the growth of real house prices is affected by growth in mortgage credit, real after-tax mortgage interest rates and disposable incomes in the short run, whereas the real effective exchange rate is the most significant determinant of Swedish real house appreciation.

The impact of the two lending restrictions been implemented after the financial crisis – the mortgage cap in October 2010 and the amortization requirement in June 2016 – are ineffective to stabilize the housing market. This suggests that macroprudential measures designed to ease pressure on housing prices and reduce risks to financial stability need to focus on these fundamentals and address the issues of tax deductibility on mortgage rates and the gradual implementation of debt-to-income limits to contain mortgage demand and improve households’ resilience to shocks.

Despite the sophisticated regulatory regime established in Solvency II, analysts should be able to consider other less complex indicators of the soundness of insurers. The Z-score measure, which has traditionally been used as a proxy of individual risk in the banking sector, may be a useful tool when applied in the insurance sector. However, different methods for calculating this indicator have been proposed in the literature. This paper compares six different Z-score approaches to examine which one best fits insurance companies. The authors use a final dataset of 183 firms (1,382 observations) operating in the Spanish insurance sector during the period 2010–2017.

In the first stage, the authors opt for a root mean squared error (RMSE) criterion to evaluate which of the various mean and SD estimates that are used to compute the Z-score best fits the data. In the second stage, the authors estimate and compare the explanatory power of the six Z-score measures that are considered by using an ordinary least squares (OLS) regression model. Finally, the authors report the results of the baseline equation using the system-GMM estimator developed by Arellano and Bover (1995) and Blundell and Bond (1998) for dynamic panel data models.

The authors find that the best formula for calculating the Z-score of insurance firms is the one that combines the current value of the return on assets (ROA) and capitalization with the SD of the returns calculated over the full sample period.

The main limitation of the research is that it addresses only the Spanish insurance sector, and consequently, the implications of the findings must be framed in this institutional context. However, the authors think that the results could be extrapolated to other countries. Future research should consider including different countries and analyzing the usefulness of aggregated insurer-level Z-scores for macroprudential monitoring.

The Z-score may be a useful early warning indicator for microprudential supervision. In addition to being an indicator of the soundness of insurers simpler than those established in the current regulation, the information provided by this accounting-based measure may help analysts and investors obtain a better understanding of insurance firms' risk factors.

To the best of the authors’ knowledge, this study is the first to examine and compare different approaches to calculating Z-scores in the insurance sector. The few available results on the predictive power of the Z-score are mixed and focus on the banking sector.

雖然在償付能力標準II 內已建立了精密的監管制度，但分析人員應可以考慮以不太複雑的指標，來分析保險公司的穩健程度。Z-分數的估量在銀行業一向作為是個體風險的代理而使用，而Z-分數如應用於保險業，或許會成為有用的工具。唯在文獻裏，學者和研究人員提出了不同的方法來計算這個指標。本文比較六個不同的Z-分數估量方法，以研究出最適合保險公司的方法。我們使用一個最終數據集，包括在2010年至2017年期間在西班牙保險業界營運的183間公司（1382 個觀察）。

在首個階段，我們選擇使用一個方均根誤差(RMSE) 標準來衡量用來計算Z-分數的各個平均值和標準差估量中哪個最適合使用於有關的數據。在第二個階段， 我們以普通最小平方 (OLS) 迴歸模型，去估計並比較被考慮的六個Z-分數估量的解釋力。最後，我們以Arellano與Bover (1995), 以及Blundell與Bond (1998) 為動態追蹤資料模型而發展出來的系統-廣義動差估計推定量，來發表我們基線方程式的結果。

我們發現，計算保險公司Z-分數的最佳公式是把資產收益率及資本總額的現值，和在整個樣本期間計算出來的囘報的標準差結合起來的公式。

我們研究主要的局限為：研究只涉及西班牙的保險業；因此，研究結果的含意，必須在這個體制的背景框架下來闡釋。唯我們相信研究結果或許可外推至其它國家。未來的研究，應考慮納入不同國家作為研究對象，並分析保險公司層面的集成Z-分數的功用，以求達到宏觀審慎監控的目的。

Z-分數或許就微觀審慎監管而言是一個有用的早期警告器。這些以會計為基礎的估量而提供的資訊，除了較現時規例内已建立顯示保險公司穩健程度的各個指標更簡單外，還會幫助分析人員和投資者更了解保險公司的風險因素。

據我們所知，本研究為首個研究，去探討並比較保險業內的Z-分數的計算方法。以前關於Z-分數預測能力的，為數不多並可供取閱的研究結果均不統一；而且，這些研究都聚焦探討銀行業。