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The aim of this paper is to provide a narrative review of previous research on tourism demand modelling and forecasting and potential future developments.

A narrative approach is taken in this review of the current body of knowledge.

Significant methodological advancements in tourism demand modelling and forecasting over the past two decades are identified.

The distinct characteristics of the various methods applied in the field are summarised and a research agenda for future investigations is proposed.

本文旨在对先前关于旅游需求建模和预测的研究进行叙述性回顾并对未来潜在发展进行展望。

本文采用叙述性回顾方法对当前知识体系进行了评论。

本文确认了过去二十年旅游需求建模和预测方法论方面的重要进展。

本文总结了该领域应用的各种方法的独特特征, 并对未来研究提出了建议。

El objetivo de este documento es ofrecer una revisión narrativa de la investigación previa sobre modelización y previsión de la demanda turística y los posibles desarrollos futuros.

En esta revisión del marco actual de conocimientos sobre modelización y previsión de la demanda turística y los posibles desarrollos futuros,se adopta un enfoque narrativo.

Se identifican avances metodológicos significativos en la modelización y previsión de la demanda turística en las dos últimas décadas.

Se resumen las características propias de los diversos métodos aplicados en este campo y se propone una agenda de investigación para futuros trabajos.

The impact of rolling on the performance of micro arc oxidation (MAO) coatings on ZM5 alloy has been underreported. The purpose of this study is to explore the correlation between rolling and the failure mechanism of MAO coatings in greater depth.

The influence of rolling on the corrosion and wear properties of MAO coating was investigated by phase structure, bond strength test (initial bond strength and wet adhesion), electrochemical impedance spectroscopy and wear test. The change of the surface electrochemical properties was studied by first principles analysis.

The results showed that the MAO coating on rolled alloy had better corrosion and wear resistance compared to cast alloy, although the structure and component content of two kinds of MAO coating are nearly identical. The difference in interface bonding between MAO coating and Mg substrate is the primary factor contributing to the disparity in performance between the two types of samples. Finally, the impact of the rolling process on MAO coating properties is explained through first-principle calculation.

A comprehensive explanation of the impact of the rolling process on MAO coating properties will provide substantial support for enhancing the application of Mg alloy anticorrosion.

Online reviews serve as valuable sources of information, reflecting tourists’ attentions, preferences and sentiments. However, although the existing research has demonstrated that incorporating online review data can enhance the performance of tourism demand forecasting models, the reliability of online review data and consumers’ decision-making process have not been given adequate attention. To address the aforementioned problem, the purpose of this study is to forecast tourism demand using online review data derived from the analysis of review helpfulness.

The authors propose a novel “identification-first, forecasting-second” framework. This framework prioritizes the identification of helpful reviews through a comprehensive analysis of review helpfulness, followed by the integration of helpful online review data into the forecasting system. Using the SARIMAX model with helpful online review data sourced from TripAdvisor, this study forecasts tourist arrivals in Hong Kong during the period from August 2012 to June 2019. The SNAÏVE/SARIMA model was used as the benchmark model. Additionally, artificial intelligence models including long short-term memory, back propagation neural network, extreme learning machine and random forest models were used to assess the robustness of the results.

The results demonstrate that online review data are subject to noise and bias, which can adversely affect the accuracy of predictions when used directly. However, by identifying helpful online reviews beforehand and incorporating them into the forecasting process, a notable enhancement in predictive performance can be realized.

First, to the best of the authors’ knowledge, this study is one of the first to focus on the data issue of online reviews on tourism arrivals forecasting. Second, this study pioneers the integration of the consumer decision-making process into the domain of tourism demand forecasting, marking one of the earliest endeavors in this area. Third, this study makes a novel attempt to identify helpful online reviews based on reviews helpfulness analysis.

Radical changes in consumer habits induced by the coronavirus disease (COVID-19) pandemic suggest that the usual demand forecasting techniques based on historical series are questionable. This is particularly true for hospitality demand, which has been dramatically affected by the pandemic. Accordingly, we investigate the suitability of tourists’ activity on Twitter as a predictor of hospitality demand in the Way of Saint James – an important pilgrimage tourism destination.

This study compares the predictive performance of the seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average (SARIMA) time-series model with that of the SARIMA with an exogenous variables (SARIMAX) model to forecast hotel tourism demand. For this, 110,456 tweets posted on Twitter between January 2018 and September 2022 are used as exogenous variables.

The results confirm that the predictions of traditional time-series models for tourist demand can be significantly improved by including tourist activity on Twitter. Twitter data could be an effective tool for improving the forecasting accuracy of tourism demand in real-time, which has relevant implications for tourism management. This study also provides a better understanding of tourists’ digital footprints in pilgrimage tourism.

This study contributes to the scarce literature on the digitalisation of pilgrimage tourism and forecasting hotel demand using a new methodological framework based on Twitter user-generated content. This can enable hospitality industry practitioners to convert social media data into relevant information for hospitality management.

2019冠狀病毒病引致消費者習慣有根本的改變; 這些改變顯示，根據歷史序列而運作的慣常需求預測技巧未必是正確的。這不確性尤以受到大流行極大影響的酒店服務需求為甚。因此，我們擬探討、若把在推特網站上的旅遊活動視為聖雅各之路 (一個重要的朝聖旅遊聖地) 酒店服務需求的預測器，這會否是合適的呢?

本研究比較 SARIMA 時間序列模型與附有外生變數 (SARIMAX)模型兩者在預測旅遊及酒店服務需求方面的表現。為此，研究人員收集在推特網站上發佈的資訊，作為外生變數進行研究。這個樣本涵蓋於2018年1月至2022年9月期間110,456個發佈資訊。

研究結果確認了傳統的時間序列模型，若涵蓋推特網站上的旅遊活動，則其對旅遊需求方面的預測會得到顯著的改善。推特網站的數據，就改善預測實時旅遊需求的準確度，或許可成為有效的工具; 而這發現對旅遊管理會有一定的意義。本研究亦讓我們進一步瞭解朝聖旅遊方面旅客的數碼足跡。

現存文獻甚少探討朝聖旅遊的數字化，而本研究不但在這方面充實了有關的文獻，還使用了一個根據推特網站上使用者原創內容嶄新的方法框架，進行分析和探討。這會幫助酒店從業人員把社交媒體數據轉變為可供酒店管理之用的合宜資訊。

Knowledge adoption is the key to effective knowledge exchange in virtual question-and-answer (Q&A) communities. Although previous studies have examined the effects of knowledge content, knowledge source credibility and the personal characteristics of knowledge seekers on knowledge adoption in virtual Q&A communities from a static perspective, the impact of answer deviation on knowledge adoption has rarely been explored from a context-based perspective. The purpose of this study is to explore the impact of two-way deviation on knowledge adoption in virtual Q&A communities, with the aim of expanding the understanding of knowledge exchange and community management.

The same question and the same answerer often yield multiple answers. Knowledge seekers usually read multiple answers to make adoption decisions. The impact of deviations among answers on knowledge seekers' knowledge adoption is critical. From a context-based perspective, a research model of the impact of the deviation of horizontal and vertical answers on knowledge adoption is established based on the heuristic-systematic model (HSM) and empirically examined with 88,287 Q&A data points and answerer data collected from Zhihu. Additionally, the moderation effects of static factors such as answerer reputation and answer length are examined.

The negative binomial regression results show that the content and emotion deviation of horizontal answers negatively affect knowledge seekers' knowledge adoption. The content deviation of vertical answers is negatively associated with knowledge adoption, while the emotion deviation of vertical answers is positively related to knowledge adoption. Moreover, answerer reputation positively moderates the negative effect of the emotion deviation of horizontal answers on knowledge adoption. Answer length weakens the negative correlation between the content deviation of horizontal and vertical answers and knowledge adoption.

This study extends previous research on knowledge adoption from a static perspective to a context-based perspective. Moreover, information deviation is expanded from a one-way variable to a two-way variable. The combined effects of static and contextual factors on knowledge adoption are further uncovered. This study can not only help knowledge seekers identify the best answers but also help virtual Q&A community managers optimize community design and operation to reduce the cost of knowledge search and improve the efficiency of knowledge exchange.

The purpose of this study is to explore the causal relationship between smart transportation technology innovation and green transportation efficiency.

A comprehensive framework is used in this paper to assess the level of green transportation efficiency in China based on the instrumental variable – generalized method of moments model, followed by an examination of the impact of innovation in smart transportation technology on green transportation efficiency. Additionally, their non-linear relationship is explored, as are their important moderating and mediating effects.

The findings indicate that, first, the efficiency of green transportation is significantly enhanced by innovation in smart transportation technology, which means that investing in such technologies contributes to improving green transportation efficiency. Second, in areas where green transportation efficiency is initially low, smart transportation technology innovation exerts a particularly potent influence in driving green transportation efficiency, which underscores the pivotal role of such innovation in bolstering efficiency when it is lacking. Third, the relationship between smart transportation technology innovation and green transportation efficiency is moderated by information and communication technology, and the influence of smart transportation technology innovation on green transportation efficiency is realized through an increase in energy efficiency and carbon emissions efficiency.

Advancing green transportation is essential in establishing a low-carbon trajectory within the transportation sector.

E-entrepreneurship is developed based on digital platforms, having specific technical opportunities, such as the interactive ecosystem, fast payment method and online store function, without strict requirements for online entrepreneurs. Considering China’s e-entrepreneurship environment and cultural background, this paper aims to analyse individuals’ e-entrepreneurship motivation based on the capability–opportunity–motivation–behaviour (COM-B) behaviour changing theory.

Through testing 602 samples based on the partial least squares path modelling and variance-based structural equation modelling, the factors from the opportunity and capability units positively affect individuals’ e-entrepreneurship motivation. Meanwhile, because of the economic and social environmental differences between China’s urban and rural regions, this study promotes the multi-group analysis based on individuals’ regional backgrounds.

First, as opportunity factors, technical and policy opportunities have significantly positive relationships with individuals’ e-entrepreneurship motivation. Second, entrepreneurial and cultural capabilities are essential for Chinese entrepreneurs while making an entrepreneurial decision. Third, because of the e-entrepreneurial environment difference and educational system gap, entrepreneurial capability exerts a greater influence on the e-entrepreneurship motivation for Chinese individuals from urban regions, and cultural capability exerts a higher impact on the e-entrepreneurship motivation for Chinese individuals from rural regions.

Whilst the phenomenon of e-entrepreneurship is emerging as a popular entrepreneurship area of study, little research has systematically explored individuals’ e-entrepreneurial motivation and analysed influencing factors from macro and minor aspects. According to the COM-B behaviour changing theory, this paper discovers influencing factors from environmental opportunity and personal capability units, and it is helpful to present individuals’ attitudes to the platform-based business model.

Listening is often considered the cornerstone of the communication process, with feedback being a crucial skill for effective management. The primary objective of this article was to investigate the relationship between managers’ listening skills and feedback skills from their subordinates’ perspectives. Moreover, it explores the mediating effect of message-sending skills and the ability to deal with interference in this relationship.

This article deployed a quantitative, descriptive research design. The authors developed and distributed a self-administered questionnaire via non-probability convenience sampling, resulting in 304 useable responses.

The results of the main direct effect test (model 1) indicate that listening is positively associated with feedback. Model 2 established that message-sending skills did not directly mediate that relationship. On the other hand, the ability to deal with interference was found to mediate the relationship. Finally, model 4 showed the multi-mediating effect of message-sending skills and the ability to deal with interference in the relationship between listening and feedback.

As far as the researchers are aware, this paper is the first of its kind to show the ability to deal with interference as a mediating factor in a statistical model. Moreover, this study is the first to present a continuous intermediary role played by message-sending skills and the ability to deal with interference in the relationship between listening and feedback.

In the evolution process of building construction accidents, there are key nodes of risk change. This paper aims to quickly identify the key nodes and quantitatively assess the node risk. Furthermore, it is essential to propose risk accumulation assessment method of building construction.

Authors analyzed 419 accidents investigation reports on building construction. In total, 39 risk factors were identified by accidents analysis. These risk factors were combined with 245 risk evolution chains. Based on those, Gephi software was used to draw the risk evolution network model for building construction. Topological parameters were applied to interpret the risk evolution network characteristic.

Combining complex network with risk matrix, the standard of quantitative classification of node risk level is formulated. After quantitative analysis of node risk, 7 items of medium-risk node, 3 items of high-risk node and 2 items of higher-risk nodes are determined. The application results show that the system risk of the project is 44.67%, which is the high risk level. It can reflect the actual safety conditions of the project in a more comprehensive way.

This paper determined the level of node risk only using the node degree and risk matrix. In future research, more node topological parameters that could be applied to node risk, such as clustering coefficients, mesoscopic numbers, centrality, PageRank, etc.

This article can quantitatively assess the risk accumulation of building construction. It would help safety managers could clarify the system risk status. Moreover, it also contributes to reveal the correspondence between risk accumulation and accident evolution.

This study comprehensively considers the likelihood, consequences and correlation to assess node risk. Based on this, single-node risk and system risk assessment methods of building construction systems were proposed. It provided a promising method and idea for the risk accumulation assessment method of building construction. Moreover, evolution process of node risk is explained from the perspective of risk accumulation.

The tourist industry has to adopt a big data-driven foresight approach to enhance decision-making in a post-COVID international landscape still marked by significant uncertainty and in which some megatrends have the potential to reshape society in the next decades. This paper, considering the opportunity offered by the application of the quantitative analysis on internet new data sources, proposes a prediction method using Google Trends data based on an estimated transfer function model.

The paper uses the time-series methods to model and predict Google Trends data. A transfer function model is used to transform the prediction of Google Trends data into predictions of tourist arrivals. It predicts the United States tourism demand in Italy.

The results highlight the potential expressed by the use of big data-driven foresight approach. Applying a transfer function model on internet search data, timely forecasts of tourism flows are obtained. The two scenarios emerged can be used in tourism stakeholders’ decision-making process. In a future perspective, the methodological path could be applied to other tourism origin markets, to other internet search engine or other socioeconomic and environmental contexts.

The study raises awareness of foresight literacy in the tourism sector. Secondly, it complements the research on tourism demand forecasting by evaluating the performance of quantitative forecasting techniques on new data sources. Thirdly, it is the first paper that makes the United States arrival predictions in Italy. Finally, the findings provide immediate valuable information to tourism stakeholders that could be used to make decisions.