Search results

The purpose of this paper is to examine whether the superiority of the implied volatility from a stochastic volatility model over the implied volatility from the Black and Scholes model on the forecasting performance of future realized volatility still holds when intraday data are analyzed.

Two implied volatilities and a realized volatility on KOSPI200 index options are estimated every hour. The grander causality tests between an implied volatility and a realized volatility is carried out for checking the forecasting performance. A dummy variable is added to the grander causality test to examine the change of the forecasting performance when a specific environment is chosen. A trading simulation is conducted to check the economic value of the forecasting performance.

Contrary to the previous studies, the implied volatility from a stochastic volatility model is not superior to that from the Black and Scholes model for the intraday volatility forecasting even if both implied volatilities are informative on one hour ahead future volatility. The forecasting performances of both implied volatilities are improved under high volatile market or low return market.

The trading strategy using the forecasting power of an implied volatility earns positively, in particular, more positively under high volatile market or low return market. However, it looks risky to follow the trading strategy because the performance is too volatile. Between two implied volatilities, it is hardly to say that one implied volatility beats another in terms of the economic value.

This is the first study which shows the forecasting performances of implied volatilities on the intraday future volatility.

This paper aims to provide the necessity to activate long-term exchange-traded derivatives (ETD) in Korea. In the era of aging, low interest rates and low economic growth, the investment demand for long-term financial products, and its hedging demand have steadily increased. Unfortunately, long-term ETD do not trade in Korea, and this study presents political suggestions to invigorate long-term ETD based on overseas cases and empirical analysis. Specifically, this study suggests the necessity to activate exchange traded funds (ETFs) options, long-term Korea treasury bond futures and options and long-term Volatility Index of Korea Composite Stock Price Index future and options. The introduction of those long-term ETD not only contributes to providing long-term investment and hedging vehicles but also reduces market inefficiencies in the Korean industry of ETFs, bonds and structured products.

We examine the effects of new regulations introduced by Korean government to cool down overheated Korean ELW markets. We also investigate whether ELWs are fairly priced as noted in the previous research. The empirical findings are as follows. Firstly, ELW was more expensive than KOSPI200 option not only before but also after the introduction of the new regulations. But degrees of the overpricedness are decreased significantly with the new regulations. Secondly, we confirm the well known facts in the literature that liquidity providers get extra profits as monopolistic providers for ELWs. Thirdly, we analyze the determinants of the differences in premiums between ELW and KOSPI200 option. The trading volume is negatively correlated with premium difference, however, timeto-maturity and market share are not statistically significant. Even though it seems that the financial regulator achieve their primary purpose to control the overheated market, we find that the new regulations have almost no effects on the overpricing problem, which implies that overpricing in ELW is not related to the market inefficiency.

This paper investigates the relative importance of the skewness and kurtosis of the risk neutral distribution for pricing KOSPI200 options. The skewness and kurtosis are estimated from non parametric method of Bakshi, Kapadia, and Madan (2003) and the parametric method of Corrado and Su (1996). We show that the skewness of the risk neutral distribution is more important factor than the kurtosis irrespective of the estimation method, the definition of pricing errors, the moneyness, the type of options and a period of time.

The variance risk premium defined as the difference between risk neutral variance and physical variance is one of the most crucial information recovered from option prices. It does not, however, reflect the asymmetry in upside and downside movements of underlying asset returns, and also has limitation in reflecting asymmetric preference of investors over gains and losses. In this sense, this paper decomposes variance risk premium into downside - and upside-variance risk premium, and then derives the skewness risk premium and examines its effectiveness in predicting future underlying asset returns. Using KOSPI200 option prices, we obtained the following results. First, we found out that the estimated skewness risk premium has meaningful forecasting power for future stock returns, while the estimated variance risk premium has little forecasting power. Second, by utilizing our results of skewness risk premium, we developed a profitable investment strategy, which verifies the effectiveness of skewness risk premium in predicting future stock returns. In conclusion, the empirical results of this paper can contribute to the literature in that it helps us understand why variance risk premium, in most global markets except the US market, has not been successful in forecasting future stock returns. In addition, our results showing the profitability of investment strategies based on skewness risk premium can also give important implications to practitioners.

As global exchanges have listed volatility derivatives competitively, volatility has been recognized as a new investment vehicle and/or a hedging means for traditional financial assets such as stocks and bonds. Following this trend, KRX has begun to announce VKOSPI from KOSPI200 index options prices since April 13, 2009 and listed VKOSPI futures on November 17, 2014. However, VKOSPI futures has still not been activated than those listed in developed countries. In this paper, we investigate the informational efficiency of VKOSPI futures and analyze the illiquidity problem of VKOSPI futures. More specifically, we execute a VAR analysis of VKOSPI, VKOSPI futures, VIX and VIX futures to find out their lead-lag relations. In addition, we further conduct a Granger causality test, impulse response analysis and variance decomposition to examine their dynamic relations. According to the results, we find that VKOSPI leads VKOSPI futures and that VIX and VIX futures lead VKOSPI and VKOSPI futures significantly. Based on the results above, lastly, we propose several policies to make the VKOSPI futures market more active and informative.

Trading of KOSPI200 options on Eurex launched in 2010 starts at 17:00 after market and closes at 05:00 in the next morning. This paper attempts to examine the role of put-call ratio of KOSPI200 nighttime options in price discovery process of spot market. The main findings of this paper are summarized as followings; The information content of put-call ratio of nighttime options is significantly incorporated in opening price of spot market next trading day but not delayed to the daytime spot market. Specifically, all put-call ratios measured in terms of total volume, total value, and cleared volume of nighttime options has strongly positive correlation with returns of KOSPI200 next trading day but put-call ratio of daytime option market has no predictive power of next daily return during sample period. This implies that the nighttime options market shows more leading role than daytime options in opening price discovery. This relationship between put-call ration and spot market return remains statistically significant during the period of the multiplier for KOSPI200 options increased. However, the change in put-call ratio of nighttime options is significantly explained by precedent put-call ratio of daytime market. This Overall empirical evidence indicates that traders of KOSPI200 options have tendency to implement strategy of linkage between price movement of daytime and nighttime market.

In the KOSPI2oo futures and option markets. additional fifteen minutes (15 : 00∼15 개5) after the underlying stock market close are given tor the adjustments of the futures and option positions. During the first five minutes. 15: 00∼15 : 05. a continuous auction trading is made. while the trading at a single clearing price is made for the remaining ten minutes. 15: 05∼15: 15.

Previous studies focused on the synchronous trading in terms of transaction time in the analysis of the lead-lag relationship. truncating the futures and option data during 15 : 00∼15 : 15. In this article. we explore how the KOSPI2oo futures and option returns for the extra fifteen minutes impact the next day's KOSPI200 cash returns, We also examine the lead-lag relationship during the reggular trading hours (9 : 00∼15 : 00) and the impact of the cash returns during 14 : 20∼15 : 00 on futures and option returns during 15 : 00∼15: 15. Our main findings are summarized as follows.

First. the KOSPI200 futures and option returns during 15 : 00∼15 : 15 lead the close-to-open KOSPI200 cash return, even though the trading volume and return volatility during 15: 00∼15: 15 are lower relative to the regular stock market session (9 : 00∼15: 00). The impact of the futures and option returns on the cash return lasts hlK) minutes and one minute‘ repectively. after the next day open. Second. the option return during the continuous auction trading session (15 : 00∼ 15 : 05) leads the close-to-open cash return. while the futures return of trading at a single clearing price during 15 : 05∼15 : 10 impacts the close-to-open cash return. Third, we found that the lead-lag relationships among the KOSPI200 futures, option, and cash returns are not constant during the reg비ar stock market session‘ In partieular. the impact of the KOSPI200 cash ret un during 14 : 40∼15 : 00 on the futures and option retuns for the 15 : 00∼15: 15 Interval is much stronger. compared with other time zones.

Finally. the KOSPI200 cash return during the last ten minutes of trading at a Single clearing price (14 : 50∼15 : 00). significantly impacts the option return during 15: 00∼15: 05. while there is no impact on the futures return (15 : 00∼15: 15).

This study examines whether the volatility risk premium is reflected on the prices of the KOSPI200 index options. By applying the empirical method of Bakshi and Kapadia (2003), we analyze the performance of delta-hedging strategy in the KOSPI200 index market. They showed the existence of the negative volatility risk premium in the S&P 500 index options as well as derived theoretical positive relationship between the volatility risk premium and delta-hedging gains. However, in the results of this study, contrary to those in the S&P 500 index options market, we do not observe the volatility risk premium. Delta-hedged gains of ATM options are not significantly negative. Delta-hedged gains are not more negative as historical volatility increases and as options' vega and remaining maturity increase. However, the notable finding of this study is that delta-hedged gains of OTM options and put options are negative and signigicant. This results can be caused by the phenomenon of overpriced puts or by market microstructure factors, such as relatively wide bid-ask spread and high tick size. In a simple examination of comparison between changes in traded option prices and changes in the Black-Scholes option prices during delta-hedging period, negative delta-hedged gains seem to be attributed to too small changes in call option prices and too large changes in put option prices. In conclusion, by analyzing the delta-hedged gains, the volatility risk risk premium seems not be observed in the KOSPI200 index options market.

The KOSPI200 mini options market, introduced in July 2015, is a market where the trading multiplier is reduced to one-fifth of the regular options. This study shows that the price discovery effect of the original options and the mini options estimated by the vector error correction model (VECM) and Hasbrouck's information share (1995, 2003), based on the regular options-mini options arbitrage and the options-spot arbitrage. The results of the empirical analysis are summarized as follows. First, in the price discovery between the regular options and the mini options, regular options dominate mini options at a statistically significant level. Second, mini options tend to lead the spot, which is stronger than the regular options. Therefore, the regular options and the mini options show asymmetrical behavior in the price discovery process of the spot, opposite to each other and are interpreted as alternative derivatives in terms of investment strategy. Considering the immaturity of mini options market established during the sample period, the price discovery is efficient even though the trading activity in the mini options is lower than that of the regular options.