Search results

Environmental regulation is in a continuous state of intense change and modification amid the long-term tensions between environmental protection and economic growth. In this article, the authors creatively investigate how fluctuations of environmental regulation influence a nation's economic growth while also examining the mediating effect of technological innovation.

Using sample data of 36 Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) countries from 2013 to 2018, environmental regulation is differentiated in two aspects of formal environmental regulation (FER) and informal environmental regulation (IER) and analyzed to assess the effects of regulatory fluctuations on investment and technological innovation.

The research results demonstrate that both FER fluctuation and IER fluctuation exert a significant negative impact on economic growth. These two fluctuations in environmental regulation increase uncertainty and unpredictable risks for corporations and investors, significantly stifling the willingness to contribute to innovation activities and leading to a diminished level of innovation. Technological innovation is revealed to have a mediating influence on the relationship of environmental regulation fluctuation to economic growth.

These findings enrich the research on the impact of environmental regulation from a dynamic, multinational perspective, contributing to the literature by exploring the relationships between environmental regulation fluctuation, technological innovation and economic growth at the OECD-country level.

This paper aims to investigate the relationship between global economic fluctuations and human development through four transmission channels (foreign direct investment (FDI), official development aid (ODA), remittances and export earnings) in Egypt as an open developing economy, in the period 1990–2015.

The paper uses a vector autoregressive model, which implies examining the impulse response functions and variance decompositions.

The results indicate that human development is negatively affected by global economic fluctuations through the four channels, namely, ODA, FDI, export earnings and remittances. In addition, the most effective transmission channels are FDI in the short run and export earnings in the long run.

While a large body of literature addresses the direct impact of business cycles and economic shocks on human development, only some studies focus on the indirect impact. The contribution is to identify the indirect impact of global economic fluctuations on human development in a developing economy, considering four transmission channels and to determine the most important of these channels. Moreover, using the human development index is an addition in this paper as most previous literature depends on other human development indicators such as children’s health, employment and schooling.

Scientific investigations into the influence of fluctuations in the economic cycle on tourism have revealed that demand in this sector is indeed dependent on such fluctuations 1). The diagram shows prima vista the close relationship between the fluctuations in the economic cycle and tourism demand in West Germany. However, in some cases there is a typical time‐lag effect on tourism demand in response to fluctuations in the economic situation, which makes it more difficult to accurately diagnose the underlying correlation between the economic cycle and tourism. For example, tourism demand re‐acted with a time‐lag of one year upon the 1968 up‐swing which followed the recession of 1967. The second post‐war recession reached the bottom in 1975, the decline of tourism demand induced by fluctuations of the business cycle however first manifested itself with a time‐lag in the year 1976. The “un‐typical” development of tourism demand in 1975 may be explained validly by economic and psychological factors 2). In the course of the years 1981 and 1982 the dependence of tourism on fluctuations of the business cycle is evident from the diagram. The main causes of this sensitivity on the part of tourism demand to changes in the economic situation can be attributed to economic and psychological factors. The demand by private households for a vacation and for recreational travel depends to a very large extent on the growth of the real income available to the private households. The comparatively high rates of growth of private households' real incomes — accompanied by a large increase in leisure time — during the sixties and early seventies prevented heavy recessions of tourism demand in cyclical downswing phases. Any stagnation or decline in real income of private households, registered for the first time in the post‐war period during the recession‐years 1981 and 1982 in West Germany, has a negative effect on tourism demand. Increased numbers of unemployed during a recession encourages uncertainty and pessimism regarding future economic development, leading many households to increase the amount of money they hold in the form of savings. It is true that consumers sooner show reluctance to buy durable consumer goods (for example cars, household appliances etc.) than to buy vacation travel. The annual vacation journey has changed — in general opinion — from a “luxury good” to a necessity or has today become for many people a “status symbol” nobody likes to give up. It should also be pointed out that such fluctuations in tourism demand resulting from the economic situation are not as pronounced as fluctuations in demand that can be observed in other sectors such as in the construction industry, in the automobile sector or in the furniture industry.

The paper aims to examine the effects of exchange rate fluctuations on real output, the price level, and the real value of components of aggregate demand in Egypt and Turkey.

Building on a theoretical model that decomposes movements in the exchange rate into anticipated and unanticipated components, the empirical investigation traces the effects through demand and supply channels.

In Turkey, anticipated exchange rate appreciation has significant adverse effects, contracting the growth of real output and the demand for investment and exports, while raising price inflation. Random fluctuations in Turkey have asymmetric effects that highlight the importance of unanticipated depreciation in shrinking output growth and the growth of private consumption and investment, despite an increase in export growth. In Egypt, anticipated exchange rate appreciation decreases export growth. Given asymmetry, the net effect of unanticipated exchange rate fluctuations, in Egypt, decreases real output and consumption growth and increases export growth, on average, over time.

In light of the country‐specific evidence, future research should extend the investigation using panel estimation, incorporating various demand and supply shocks along with exchange rate fluctuations, to establish the relative importance of various shocks on macroeconomic performance across MENA countries.

While adhering to a flexible exchange rate policy to boost competitiveness, managing fundamentals to reduce excessive volatility impinging on the economic system over time should top the policy agenda.

Excessive volatility in the real effective exchange rate could be detrimental to real growth, over time, as the evidence for Turkey and Egypt illustrates.

The purpose of this paper is to review the four large and two small fluctuations in China’s economic growth since the reform and opening up, which can be further divided into five periods of economic upturn and six periods of economic downturn.

This paper also analyzes the performance, causes and practical countermeasures of these fluctuations and summarizes the experience and lessons from the eight aspects of dealing with economic downturn and stabilizing growth since the reform and opening up.

At last, the paper puts forward some measures to cope with economic downturn and stabilize growth under the new normal in the new era.

Any country’s economic growth is a tortuous process with many fluctuations. The rate of economic growth cannot rise or go down straight for a long time, and China’s economic growth is no exception. The drastic fluctuations of economic growth can lead to serious overproduction, waste of resources, increased unemployment, decreased income or supply shortages, rising prices and decline of living standards.

There exist long-term fluctuations in the process of capital accumulation. The economic long wave is an essential part of research into non-mainstream western economics. After the Second World War, the capitalist world experienced the fourth long wave of expansion and then entered into a downward phase of the long wave in the 1970s. Regarding to whether a new long wave of expansion took place in the 1980s, left-wing scholars hold different viewpoints. The purpose of this paper is to focus on this issue.

First, based on the review of the long wave history, this paper discusses three kinds of long wave theories with significant influence and puts forward the theoretical framework of analyzing the long wave of capitalist economy. Next, under the guidance of this theoretical framework and in combination with the actual development and evolution of the capitalist economy, the issue of whether the fifth long wave of the capitalist economy began to emerge in the 1980s is discussed deeply.

This paper argues that, from the early 1980s to 2007, the US-dominated developed countries experienced a new long wave of expansion driven by the information technology revolution, the adjustment of the neoliberalism system and the economic globalization. However, the financial-economic crisis of 2008–2009 led to a new phase of long wave downswing.

This paper does not agree with the single-factor analysis of the intrinsic formation mechanism of economic long wave and sticks to the multi-factor analysis centering on the fluctuation of accumulation rate. It is pointed out that the evolution of the long wave of capitalist economy depends on the combined influence of technology, institutions and market. The study of the long wave of the economy will help us to correctly understand the historical stage and characteristics of the current world capitalist economy in the long-term fluctuations, so that we can make an appropriate and positive response.

The role of money and monetary policy of the central bank in pursuing macroeconomic stability has significantly changed over the period since the end of World War II. Globalization, liberalization, integration, and transition processes generally shaped the crucial milestones of the macroeconomic development and substantial features of economic policy and its framework in Europe. Policy-driven changes together with variety of exogenous shocks significantly affected the key features of macroeconomic environment on the European continent that fashioned the framework and design of monetary policies.

This chapter examines the key basis of the central bank’s monetary policy on its way to pursue and preserve the internal and external stability of the purchasing power of money. Substantial elements of the monetary policy like objectives and strategies are not only generally introduced but also critically discussed according to their accuracy, suitability, and reliability in the changing macroeconomic conditions. Brief overview of the Eurozone common monetary policy milestones and the past Eastern bloc countries’ experience with a variety of exchange rate regimes provides interesting empirical evidence on origins and implications of vital changes in the monetary policy conduction in Europe and the Eurozone.

The traditional grey relational models directly describe the behavioural characteristics of the systems based on the sample point connections. Few grey relational models can measure the dynamic periodic fluctuation rules of the objects, and most of these models do not have affinities, which results in instabilities of the relational results because of sequence translation. The paper aims to discuss these issues.

Fourier transform functions are used to fit the system behaviour curves, redefine the area difference between the curves and construct a grey relational model based on discrete Fourier transform (DFTGRA).

To verify its validity, feasibility and superiority, DFTGRA is applied to research on the correlation between macroeconomic growth and marine economic growth in China coastal areas. It is proved that DFTGRA has the superior properties of affinity, symmetry, uniqueness, etc., and wide applicability.

DFTGRA can not only be applied to equidistant and equal time sequences but also be adopted for non-equidistant and unequal time sequences. DFTGRA can measure both the global relational degree and the dynamic correlation of the variable cyclical fluctuation between sequences.

This study investigates the impact of US dollar volatility and oil rents on the performance of small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) in the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) region, with an emphasis on understanding how these factors influence SME financing constraints in economies with fixed currency regimes.

Employing a random effects panel regression analysis, this research considers US dollar volatility and oil rents as independent variables, with SME performance, measured through the financing gap, as the dependent variable. Controls such as trade balance, inflation deltas and gross domestic product (GDP) growth are included to isolate their effects on SME financing constraints.

The study reveals a significant positive relationship between dollar volatility and the financing gap, suggesting that increased volatility can exacerbate SME financing constraints. Conversely, oil rents did not show a significant direct influence on SME performance. The trade balance and inflation deltas were found to have significant effects, highlighting the multifaceted nature of economic variables affecting SMEs.

The study acknowledges potential biases due to omitted variables and the limitations inherent in the use of secondary data.

Findings offer pertinent guidance for SMEs and policymakers in the GCC region seeking to develop strategies that mitigate the impact of currency volatility and support SME financing.

The research provides new insights into the dynamics of SME performance within fixed currency regimes, which significantly contributes to the limited literature in this area. The paper further underscores the complex connections between global economic factors and SME financial health.

The comparison between economic growth and the character of monetary policy is one of the most frequently studied issues in policymaking. However, the number of studies incorporating a dynamic time warping approach to analyse the similarity of macroeconomic variables is relatively small.

The study aims at assessing the mutual similarity among various variables representing the financial sector (including the monetary policy by the central bank) and the real sector (e.g. economic growth, industrial production, household consumption expenditure), as well as cross-similarity between both sectors.

The analysis is based on the dynamic time warping (DTW) method, which allows for capturing various dimensions of changes of considered variables. This method is almost non-existent in the literature to compare financial and economic time series. The application of this method constitutes the main area of value added of the research. The analysis includes five variables representing the financial sector and five from the real sector. The study covers four countries: Czechia, Hungary, Poland and Romania and the 2010–2022 period (quarterly data).

The results show that variables representing the financial sector, including those reflecting monetary policy, are weakly correlated with each other, whereas the variables representing the real economy have a solid mutual similarity. As regards individual variables, for example, GDP fluctuations show relatively substantial similarity to ROE fluctuations – especially in Czechia and Hungary. In the case of Hungary and Romania, CAR fluctuations are consistent with GDP fluctuations. In the case of Poland and Hungary, there is a relatively strong similarity between the economy's monetisation and economic growth. Comparing the individual countries, two clusters of countries can be identified. One cluster includes Poland and Czechia, while another covers Hungary and Romania.