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1 – 2 of 2Geeta Duppati, Anoop S. Kumar, Frank Scrimgeour and Leon Li
The purpose of this paper is to assess to what extent intraday data can explain and predict long-term memory.
Abstract
Purpose
The purpose of this paper is to assess to what extent intraday data can explain and predict long-term memory.
Design/methodology/approach
This article analysed the presence of long-memory volatility in five Asian equity indices, namely, SENSEX, CNIA, NIKKEI225, KO11 and FTSTI, using five-min intraday return series from 05 January 2015 to 06 August 2015 using two approaches, i.e. conditional volatility and realized volatility, for forecasting long-term memory. It employs conditional-generalized autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity (GARCH), i.e. autoregressive fractionally integrated moving average (ARFIMA)-FIGARCH model and ARFIMA-asymmetric power autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity (APARCH) models, and unconditional volatility realized volatility using autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) and ARFIMA in-sample forecasting models to estimate the persistence of the long-term memory.
Findings
Given the GARCH framework, the ARFIMA-APARCH long-memory model gave the better forecast results signifying the importance of accounting for asymmetric information when modelling volatility in a financial market. Using the unconditional realized volatility results from the Singapore and Indian markets, the ARIMA model outperforms the ARFIMA model in terms of forecast performance and provides reasonable forecasts.
Practical implications
The issue of long memory has important implications for the theory and practice of finance. It is well-known that accurate volatility forecasts are important in a variety of settings including option and other derivatives pricing, portfolio and risk management.
Social implications
It could be said that using long-memory augmented models would give better results to investors so that they could analyse the market trends in returns and volatility in a more accurate manner and reach at an informed decision. This is useful to minimize the risks.
Originality/value
This research enhances the literature by estimating the influence of intraday variables on daily volatility. This is one of very few studies that uses conditional GARCH framework models and unconditional realized volatility estimates for forecasting long-term memory. The authors find that the methods complement each other.
Details
Keywords
This paper aims to analyze and give directions for advancing research in stock market volatility highlighting its features, structural breaks and emerging developments. This study…
Abstract
Purpose
This paper aims to analyze and give directions for advancing research in stock market volatility highlighting its features, structural breaks and emerging developments. This study offers a platform to research the benchmark studies to know the research gap and give directions for extending future research.
Design/methodology/approach
The author has performed the literature review, and, reference checking as per the snowballing approach. Firstly, the author has started with outlining and simplifying the significance of the subject area, the review illustrating the various elements along with the research gaps and emphasizing the finding.
Findings
This work summarizes the studies covering the volatility, its properties and structural breaks on various aspects such as techniques applied, subareas and the markets. From the review’s analysis, no study has clarified the supremacy of any model because of the different market conditions, nature of data and methodological aspects. The outcome of this research work has delivered further magnitude to research the benchmark studies for the upcoming work on stock market volatility. This paper has also proposed the hybrid volatility models combining artificial intelligence with econometric techniques to detect noise, sudden changes and chaotic information easily.
Research limitations/implications
The author has taken the research papers from the scholarly journal published in the English language only and the author may also consider other nonscholarly or other language journals.
Originality/value
To the best of the author’s knowledge, this research work highlights an updated and more comprehensive framework examining the properties and demonstrating the contemporary developments in the field of stock market volatility.
Details