Search results

The need effectively to integrate decision making tasks together with knowledge representation and inference procedures has caused recent research efforts towards the integration of decision support systems with knowledge‐based techniques. Explores the potential benefits of such integration in the area of business forecasting. Describes the forecasting process and identifies its main functional elements. Some of these elements provide the requirements for an intelligent forecasting support system. Describes the architecture and the implementation of such a system, the theta intelligent forecasting information system (TIFIS) that that first‐named author had developed during his dissertation. In TIFIS, besides the traditional components of a decision‐support onformation system, four constituents are included that try to model the expertise required. The information system adopts an object‐oriented approach to forecasting and exploits the forecasting engine of the theta model integrated with automated rule based adjustments and judgmental adjustments. Tests the forecasting accuracy of the information system on the M3‐competition monthly data.

Some analysts have claimed that the volatility of an asset is caused solely by the random arrival of new information about the future returns from the asset. Others have claimed that volatility is mainly caused by trading. In any case it is a common belief that volatility is of great importance in finance and it is the factor that plays the most important role in determining option prices. This paper discusses the development of a decision support system (D‐TIFIS) for options trading based on volatility forecasting. In order to evaluate the system, data were used from the Greek FTSE/ASE 20 stock index as well as at the money call and put prices on the specific index.

The paper aims to focus on the role that cosmopolitanism and, in particular, “the cosmopolitan disposition” (Woodward et al., 2008) plays in the process of entrepreneurial business by transnational business elites in Dubai.

Adopting a relational perspective based on Bourdieu and Wacquant’s (1992) Reflexive Sociology, as well as an inductive design, the authors conducted 30 semi-structured interviews focusing on both expatriates and Emiratis (locals/nationals) who displayed key features of a transnational business elite.

The findings indicate that the cosmopolitan disposition is an asset for transnational business elites when they venture in the context of Dubai.

The findings would have to be further replicated in similar contexts, i.e. other major cities displaying similar cosmopolitan features with Dubai. A theoretical framework that calls for further study of transnational entrepreneurship via the lens of cosmopolitan disposition and Bourdieuan “habitus” is proposed.

The research outlines cosmopolitan skills for a transnational business elite which are required when entrepreneurial ventures are developed in the context of a city like Dubai.

Cosmopolitanism and transnational entrepreneurship change cities like Dubai around the world constantly. Therefore, this study aims at achieving a better understanding of these changes and the ways in which they occur.

Studies on transnational entrepreneurship have already adopted Bourdieu’s theory (1977/1986), but this is the first time the cosmopolitan perspective and disposition is researched using this approach.

A great challenge for today’s companies is not only how to adapt to the changing business environment but also how to gain a competitive advantage from the way in which they choose to do so. As a basis for achieving such advantages, companies have started to seek to improve the performance of various operations. Forecasting is one of them; it is important to firms because it can help ensure that effective use of resources is made. In the market there are a number of off‐the‐shelf system products, which provide forecasts. The new trend, of moving traditional software packages to Web services, has pushed forecasting to a new dimension, named by the authors as “e‐forecasting”. In this paper, a first approach to e‐forecasting is made by throwing light on several aspects and a survey is presented which aims at identifying existing Web forecasting services.

A growing number of individuals identify as cosmopolitans, that is, citizens of the world. They voluntarily move from country to country in pursuit of self-fulfilment in both life and work, and construct a cosmopolitan identity in the process. With the help of three entrepreneurial narratives the authors investigated how cosmopolitan disposition affects entrepreneurial behaviour. The authors found that cosmopolitan entrepreneurs share many common entrepreneurial characteristics, such as openness to opportunities, a need for achievement and the locus of control. However, they also challenge the understanding of entrepreneurship by downplaying the role of environment and interpreting success in an unconventional way. The study demonstrates that this growing group of entrepreneurs deserves more attention from entrepreneurship scholars.

Given a time‐series, what is the best partitioning of the state space in order to obtain reasonable values for the block entropies? The purpose of this paper is to provide a simple answer (an algorithm), although approximative, in connection with symbolic dynamics and statistical properties of 1‐d maps on the interval.

The logistic map is examined as an archetype of a Complex System with different behaviors, namely: periodicity, order‐to‐chaos period‐doubling transition, weak chaos, parametric intermittent chaos, developed chaos and fully developed chaos. For the logistic map the generating partition is known, and allows comparison with other prescriptions in the literature. The partitioning of the phase space with the easy generated bipartition induced by the mean value of a curve in the plane, gives results in good agreement (roughly up to a 20 per cent difference) with the results of the generating partition, if the trajectory of the system is in parametric intermittent chaos and in developed chaos (DC). In the case of fully developed chaos (FDC), the agreement is perfect.

The authors confirm that a statistical partitioning is almost equivalent with the exact partitioning for the logistic map.

The paper updates previous results and proposes a better understanding on the partitioning for symbolic dynamics.

This study aims to examine the effects of cosmopolitanism on organizational commitment (OC), with a particular focus on the mediating impact of the employees’ challenge-oriented and affiliation-oriented organizational citizenship behaviors within the United Arab Emirates (UAE). The researcher has adopted the theory of planned behavior, the theory of reasoned action and the social exchange theory as a theoretical foundation.

The quantitative (deductive) method is used. The primary data is collected using a cross-sectional questionnaire. The data collection process was administered across five months. A total of 800 questionnaires were distributed randomly to various business sectors and industries in the UAE. A response rate of 86.9% was achieved, leading to 695 complete and feasible questionnaires.

Statistical analyzes prove that cosmopolitanism was indeed a valid predictor of OC. Contrary to the expectations, and more specifically, the results revealed that diversity is not a predictor of both challenge-oriented organizational citizenship and OC. The current study indicates that global openness (GOP) is an insignificant predictor of OC. Most remarkably, the present study shows a partially substantial mediation effect of affiliation-oriented organizational citizenship between GOP and OC. Last but not least, challenge-oriented and affiliation-oriented organizational citizenship are significant full mediators between one-world consciousness, cultural acceptance and OC.

Globalization has dramatically increased the diversity of the workforce. This scenario has led to the creation of the concept of Cosmopolitanism. The UAE is a unique setting, given that the workforce in the region is globally diverse. Thus, this study is a unique attempt to bridge the gap between the rich Western theories and the under-researched Non-Western context, namely, the UAE. As each city has its local-rooted environment, one cannot argue that Cosmopolitanism inevitably ignores international orientation. This study explains the embedded factors that constitute Dubai city’s cosmopolitan community, where developments and emerging growing economic trends arise.

Pressure on business to direct their activities responsibly has been increased during the last years to extent their suitability performance in all economic, social and environmental dimensions. This has motivated businesses and researchers to identify ways to implement sustainable and resilient operations. In the era of economic globalisation, small and medium enterprises (SMEs) are recognised as an engine of sustainable economic development in both the developed and developing world. Their competitiveness drives the economy, both nationally and internationally. SMEs have faced challenges in developing, internationalisation and achieving competitive advantage. Purpose of current study is to identify and analyse the sustainability and resiliency (SR) barriers to SME internationalisation and prioritise the practices to overcome the negative influence of barriers. In this regard, first, barriers and innovative practices have been identified through the literature review. Second, the essential barriers will be selected through reduction steps by the intuitionistic fuzzy Delphi (IF-Delphi) method. After computing the weight of barriers through the IF-DEMATEL method, the practices were prioritised using four multiple attribute decision-making (MADM) methods in an IF environment. Finally, the scores were aggregated by correlation coefficient and standard deviation (CCSD) technique. Results present that ‘Lack of economical resources to global exports’ and ‘Complications in acclimatizing export product design’ are the top priority barriers and ‘Knowledge of global market opportunities’ and ‘Networking with business incubator institutions’ have been recognised as the essential SMEs internationalisation practices. This study contributes to creating a more focussed approach towards the growth of SMEs. The study results would be helpful for industry, policymakers and academia.

Despite the growing importance of online word-of-mouth (WOM) with regard to television (TV) ratings, it is usually excluded from early prediction models. The purpose of this paper is to investigate the role of online WOM in TV ratings predictions, focussing on whether the incorporation of online WOM could improve predictions of TV ratings, and extracts meaningful rules for decision-making.

The author uses online WOM as a potential predictive variable in the TV ratings prediction model. The author matches a list of programs based on TV ratings for the movie channel with internet user reviews and TV ratings information from Yahoo! Movies (YM) and XYZ Company. The data set includes 71 movies, for which the data were analyzed with a hybrid model.

Grey relational analysis shows that online WOM is a useful ex ante determinant of TV ratings. As a predictive variable, it plays an essential role in enhancing TV ratings predictions. The experimental results also indicate that the proposed model surpasses other listed methods in terms of both accuracy and reduction of variables, while the proposed procedure yields a set of easily understandable decision rules that facilitate the interpretation of TV ratings information.

This paper identifies critical predictors of TV ratings and suggests that online WOM messages are a credible source. A hybrid model is developed to illustrate an intelligent prediction system for TV ratings.

The study demonstrates the effectiveness of online WOM and its impact on TV ratings. It offers an intelligent prediction system for TV ratings with practical implications for managers within the TV industry.

Intermittent demand appears sporadically, with some time periods not even displaying any demand at all. Even so, such patterns constitute considerable proportions of the total stock in many industrial settings. Forecasting intermittent demand is a rather difficult task but of critical importance for corresponding cost savings. The current study aims to examine the empirical outcomes of three heuristics towards the modification of established intermittent demand forecasting approaches.

First, optimization of the smoothing parameter used in Croston's approach is empirically explored, in contrast to the use of an a priori fixed value as in earlier studies. Furthermore, the effect of integer rounding of the resulting forecasts is considered. Lastly, the authors evaluate the performance of Theta model as an alternative of SES estimator for extrapolating demand sizes and/or intervals. The proposed heuristics are implemented into the forecasting support system.

The experiment is performed on 3,000 real intermittent demand series from the automotive industry, while evaluation is made both in terms of bias and accuracy. Results indicate increased forecasting performance.

The current research explores some very simple heuristics which have a positive impact on the accuracy of intermittent demand forecasting approaches. While some of these issues have been partially explored in the past, the current research focuses on a complete in‐depth analysis of easy‐to‐employ modifications to well‐established intermittent demand approaches. By this, the authors enable the application of such heuristics in an industrial environment, which may lead to significant inventory and production cost reductions and other benefits.