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Josh Williams is a Student at the NAU who has driven buses on campus and wants to improve the transportation on campus. He is convinced that purchasing a new type of bus that is more fuel efficient, has larger capacity, better designed for boarding, and has a longer life is worth the higher purchase cost. He sets out to prove it by creating a discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis. Since many of the estimates for the DCF analysis are uncertain, he decides to perform a Monte Carlo simulation (MCS) analysis. Students are asked to step into Josh’s role and perform the analysis.

Josh Williams was a Student in the authors’ MBA program. Both authors teach in this program and one author was the Advisor for Net Impact and worked with Josh to present his idea to the university administration. The authors have changed a name or two but otherwise, the case describes a real situation in a real organization without disguise.

The authors have used this case in a first semester MBA-Applied Management course, Decision Modeling and Simulation. Students already have experience with DCF analysis and have been introduced to MCS. With this case, students apply MCS at the conclusion of a three-week module on predictive analytics. Students have run at least two MCS models and have become comfortable with the software. The case would also be appropriate for a senior-level undergraduate course such as business analytics or management science. It might also be useful for other courses that include the MCS modeling technique learning objectives such as project management.

This case provides an opportunity for students to perform an MCS analysis. MCS is useful when many of the inputs to a DCF analysis (or any model) have been estimated and the modeler is concerned that the estimates are uncertain and could perhaps be a range of values. MCS can be used to understand the effect of this uncertainty on NPV which in turn may affect the decision. The case could also be used without MCS focusing just on the DCF analysis with deterministic sensitivity analysis.

This case introduces a framework for cost modeling. Two data sets (one for injection-molded plastic parts and another for compressors) allow students to apply the cost-driver framework in conjunction with basic spreadsheet and regression analyses. Although obviously applicable in a course on supply chain management, the case can also be used to teach competitive cost analysis for strategic decision making.

Spiegel Online (www.spiegel.de) is the leading news Web site in Germany. The site was first designed to accompany Der Spiegel, one of Europe's largest and Germany's most influential weekly magazine, which has a weekly circulation of around one million. The site's content is produced by a team of more than fifty journalists writing in several categories: politics, business, networld, panorama, arts and entertainment, science, university, school, sports, travel, weather, and automobiles. The original content is complemented by articles purchased from news agencies and selected articles from the print edition. Spiegel-Verlag is a major contributor to the Hamburg Media School, which offers professional master's degree programs in Media Management (MBA), film, and journalism. In their second year, MBA students typically engage in consulting projects with major media companies. In a recent assignment, Spiegel Online posed two questions to the MBA team: are there any chances for an economically successful entry into the market for interactive classifieds? And if so, what should the business model look like in detail? A student team analyzed markets for classified ads and found one market segment that appeared to be particularly promising: the market for art objects. During the development of a business plan for a new venture in this market it became apparent that there is much uncertainty about the key input parameters to the business plan. As a result, it is very difficult to assess the viability of the business idea. How can the team properly account for the uncertain input parameters? What is the impact of this uncertainty on the bottom line? Will a Web site for art objects earn or lose money? How can the team communicate this uncertainty to a group of high-level decision makers who want a simple “go or no-go” recommendation?

The objective is to make students aware of the applicability of Monte Carlo simulation to the analysis of complex business plans. Students should learn how to explicitly account for uncertain inputs in a business plan, how to assess the impact of uncertainty on the bottom line via Monte Carlo simulation, and how to communicate the results of their analysis to high-level decision makers.

Inventory management plays a critical role in managing business profitability. Through this case, the participants will understand the role of managing inventory for timely workshop operations. Further, too much inventory can erode business margins and occupy storage space. This case also highlights the selection of an appropriate inventory review policy for managing the spare parts inventory.

Mergers and acquisitions (M&A) are often very complex management endeavors. Analyzes the IT component of M&A for two financial institutions. Students are tasked with assisting Mike Farrell, the CIO of New Millennium Financial (NMF), a new company created through the merger of FinStar Financial and D&L Bank, in determining the optimal combined IT portfolio. To accomplish this task the strategic business objectives of the firm must be clearly understood and the IT projects in the pipelines of both institutions analyzed. Students must make an IT portfolio management decision and answer the question: What is the optimal IT strategy and project portfolio for NMF?

To apply a framework to manage a company's IT portfolio, i.e., understand the company's strategic context, develop business objectives that align with its strategy, assess IT investments, and develop a portfolio of IT projects that support the objectives. The framework is iterative, i.e., IT investments are assessed on a regular basis based on their performance and risk/return tradeoffs. Also to introduce a leading Web-based tool, ProSight, that helps managers organize IT portfolios.

The learning outcomes are to remember the overall context of global supply chain management from a stakeholder perspective, to understand the context of material handling movement in a mining industry, to apply the overall knowledge of linear programming in a supply chain context, to analyze the different constraints with flow of goods at different nodes in various location hubs and convert the same into the optimization problem and to evaluate carefully the different costs associated at different levels and then finding the optimal solution that minimizes the total cost.

This case proposes a mixed integer multi-echelon analytical model integrated with the scenario tree analysis. The integrated model is used to optimize the allocation of volumes at various stages of the supply chain of exporters of bulk materials like iron ore from Goa, India, to various countries in Asia. The scenario tree analysis is then used to evaluate decisions under certainty with demand as the stochastic parameter. The proposed integrated model has potential for collaboration in the supply chain and facilitating network design, inventory and transportation planning and policy analysis.

This course is suitable at the MBA level for the following courses: Operations Research (Focus/Session: Applications on Supply Chain Management), Supply Chain Management (Focus/Session: Global Supply Chain Management, Logistics Planning, Distribution Network), Logistics Management (Focus/Session: Transportation Planning) nd Operations Strategy (Focus/Session: Location Node Strategy).

Teaching Notes are available for educators only.

CSS 9: Operations and Logistics.

thyssenkrupp Steel Europe, a major European steel company, operates a so-called push-pickling line (PPL) in Bochum, Germany. The PPL produces a particular type of steel strips that are sold to B2B customers, mainly in the automotive industry. In spring 2014, a senior vice president of thyssenkrupp Steel's production operations and one of his production managers notice that over the span of ten years the production facility regularly did not meet its planned production volumes. They set out to determine the drivers for the deviations from planned production figures with the ultimate goal to improve the production planning process at the Bochum PPL. Students will step into the shoes of Markus Schulze a production manager at thyssenkrupp Steel as he searches for performance drivers at the Bochum PPL and analyzes recent production data to build a forecasting model for production planning.

Faeyee Electronics was an electronics company that manufactured and sold smartphones including XS and XT types. The management of Faeyee wanted to pursue the maximum contribution margin as much as possible, especially since they were faced with limited resources. It was necessary to apply analytical tools and cost accounting concepts to study this case including cost-volume-profit analysis, learning curve analysis, regression analysis, definitions of competitive products, constrained non-linear optimization, and contribution margin.

The case uses business analytics tools and cost accounting concepts, including regression models and constrained optimization approaches, to study how to maximize business outcomes, such as contribution margin and profits when limited business resources are available. The company and individuals are disguised.

This case can be used in any junior-, senior-, masters- or MBA-level managerial accounting course. Students need to have at least one course of introduction to statistics or instructors review required statistics concepts or techniques before assigning this case. Students are exposed to the challenges of deriving learning curve models, using regression analysis to study collected data and allocating limited resources to maximize contribution margin.

This case is intended to help students of business communication and public relations to trace the effects of communication by public figures and understand essential elements of designing effective communication. After working through the case and assignment questions, the students will be able to:understand the drivers of vaccine hesitancy;analyze the effects of mass communication on public sentiment, in a fast-changing public health situation; anddesign interventions to influence public awareness and action, using a simple model (5W) for mass communication.

As the vaccines first arrived after the devastating first wave of the Covid-19 pandemic, Indians hesitated to take the shot. Vaccine hesitancy, a worldwide phenomenon, hampered the uptake of the first Covid vaccines despite the dark clouds of the lethal disease. The case looks at the massive problem of vaccine hesitancy and how an integrated communication strategy could overcome and mitigate the challenge. The case protagonist, the leader of a communications agency, looks at the messaging, medium and platforms needed for strategic communication pitch to combat this vaccine hesitancy.

The case was designed for use in a graduate-level course in business communication. This case may be positioned toward the middle or end of the course to illustrate mass communication strategy for pressing and sensitive challenges. The case may also be used in a course on public relations, both at graduate and undergraduate levels.

Teaching notes are available for educators only.

CSS 8: Marketing.

1. Probabilistic calculations of cost, and profit/loss using standard probability functions

2. Decision tree to find the expected monetary value (EMV) of different options.

3. Monte Carlo simulation for risk analysis.

4. Risk analysis in project management.

Learners will be able to understand and apply the following: how to approach uncertainty in business decisions using probabilistic calculations of cost, and profit/loss using standard probability functions; how to address uncertainty in business decisions by looking forward and reasoning backward, using the decision tree technique and the EMV of different decisions; how to analyse the risk inherent in business decisions by incorporating probability distributions for all critical variables in the form of Monte Carlo simulation; and appreciation of strategic considerations in risk analysis as it applies to project management

The case describes the challenge facing Vilas Birari, the owner and chief executive of Harsh Constructions, a construction company headquartered in Nasik, India. Birari had to decide on the bid for a construction project in September of 2021, during the COVID-19 (COVID) pandemic. Due to successive waves of the pandemic, the state and federal governments announced lockdowns intermittently, causing uncertainty in costs related to labor, material and project completion. The dilemma before Birari was how to set a bid price that was not so low as to incur a loss and not so high as to lose the bid to competitors. The uncertainty made Birari’s decision-making complex. The case invites students to help Birari find an optimum bid price by using various quantitative techniques, such as Monte Carlo simulation and decision trees.

This case is intended for students of management at a master’s level, in an elective course on management science, which is often also known as decision science. This compact case can be positioned in the second half of the course, when exploring risk management using computer simulation as a tool. The case serves both as an introduction to using simulation to manage uncertainty as well a contrast with simpler methods that are covered earlier in the course.

Teaching notes are available for educators only.

CSS 7: Management Science.