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This paper examines the cyclical regularities of macroeconomic, financial and property market aggregates in relation to the property stock price cycle in the UK. The Hodrick Prescott filter is employed to fit a long‐term trend to the raw data, and to derive the short‐term cycles of each series. It is found that the cycles of consumer expenditure, total consumption per capita, the dividend yield and the long‐term bond yield are moderately correlated, and mainly coincident, with the property price cycle. There is also evidence that the nominal and real Treasury Bill rates and the interest rate spread lead this cycle by one or two quarters, and therefore that these series can be considered leading indicators of property stock prices. This study recommends that macroeconomic and financial variables can provide useful information to explain and potentially to forecast movements of property‐backed stock returns in the UK.

Considers how membership of a Single European Currency would affect Single European Currency members’ national economic sovereignty. First defines concisely national economic sovereignty. Explores economic life in the Single European Currency. A picture of a converged Single European Currency area economy emerges. Then considers what influence Single European Currency members would have on the Single European Currency area’s macroeconomic policy, finding members’ influence, their national economic sovereignty, depends on the Single European Currency’s institutional structure. Explores three institutional structures, a Council of Ministers approach, a federal approach and the Maastricht plan, the European Union’s (EU’s) actual plan for the Single European Currency. Finds that both a federal and a Council of Ministers approach appear to offer Single European Currency members some degree of national economic sovereignty, while the Maastricht plan appears to offer Single European Currency members very little national economic sovereignty. Analyses the Exchange Rate Mechanism (ERM), to assess what national economic sovereignty EU countries currently enjoy. It becomes apparent that in order to prevent excessive exchange rate instability EU countries must set their monetary policies to the satisfaction of the Financial Market, EU free capital mobility undermining EU countries’ national economic sovereignty. The ERM’s and the Maastricht plan’s preference for price stability over democratic accountability leads to an investigation of the significance of a economy’s average inflation rate. Finds evidence of a negative correlation between EU countries average inflation rates and their private sectors level of profitability. Concludes by asking if a Single European Currency, which favours enforcement of price stability over democratic accountability, is good for European business or not.

The purpose of this paper is to research the influence of inflation and delay in payment on the inventory model on Weibull distribution and present a new method of inventory control model for fresh agricultural products.

The previous researches deal with the inventory problems. However, these researches are based on deteriorating industrial products, so that the method for inventory model of agricultural products should be employed. According to agricultural products characteristics, the model assumes that deterioration is defined as fixed and demand is taken as Weibull distribution. An optimal order quantity and the minimum inventory total cost are formulated and solved under inflation and delay in payment.

The minimum inventory total cost and the optimal ordering quantity are convex with the length of the period with positive stock. When the delay period is longer than the length of the period with positive stock, the minimum inventory total cost and the optimal ordering quantity increase with permissible delay in payment increase and decrease with inflation rate increase, changing steeply with inflation rate and increasing permissible delay.

The market demand of fresh agricultural products is on two‐parameter Weibull distribution.

The paper gives useful advice for agricultural supply chain managers.

The paper presents a new method of inventory control for fresh agricultural products.

Previous studies have shown that the effectiveness of monetary policy depends, to a large extent, on the market expectations of its future actions. This paper proposes an econometric framework to address the effect of the current state of the economy on monetary policy expectations. Specifically, we study the effect of contractionary (or expansionary) demand (or supply) shocks hitting the euro area countries on the expectations of the ECB's monetary policy in two stages. In the first stage, we construct indexes of real activity and inflation dynamics for each country, based on soft and hard indicators. In the second stage, we use those indexes to provide assessments on the type of aggregate shock hitting each country and assess its effect on monetary policy expectations at different horizons. Our results indicate that expectations are responsive to aggregate contractionary shocks, but not to expansionary shocks. Particularly, contractionary demand shocks have a negative effect on short-term monetary policy expectations, while contractionary supply shocks have negative effect on medium- and long-term expectations. Moreover, shocks to different economies do not have significantly different effects on expectations, although some differences across countries arise.

The purpose of this paper is to investigate both linear and/or nonlinear effects of inflation on income inequality and to test the Kuznets hypothesis using panel data of 24 developed countries (DCs) and 66 developing countries (LDCs) observed over the period of 1990–2014.

This paper explores the short- and long-run Granger causality relationship between inflation and income inequality using the Toda and Yamamoto (1995) procedure and a Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) approach. The existence of a nonlinear relationship between inflation and income inequality is confirmed implying as inflation rises income inequality decreases. Income inequality then reaches a minimum and then starts rising again. The findings of this paper show the existence of Kuznets “U-shaped” hypothesis between income inequality and real GDP per capita in DCs group, and the existence of Kuznets’ inverted “U-shaped” hypothesis for LDCs group.

The results indicate that there is no bi-directional Granger causality between inflation and income inequality in the short-run, but, there is bi-directional Granger causality in the long-run for both the DCs and LDCs group. The results help us to assess the effectiveness of monetary policy in reducing income inequality in both the DCs and LDCs group. As a policy implication, monetary policy is often aimed at controlling the annual rate of inflation in the long-run with a short-run focus on reducing output gaps and creating employment. However, managing inflation may have implications for income inequality.

This is original research paper which analyzes the “U-shaped” and inverted “U-shaped” paths of income inequality and real GDP per capita for large sample of two group countries including developed and developing countries, respectively. Also, this paper analyzes the nonlinear relationship between inflation and income inequality in two groups. Furthermore, this paper investigates the short- and long-run relationship between variables. The results are important for policy makers.

This paper aims to review property cycle theory and the relevance of the larger body of knowledge about cycles with reference to the housing market. It also aims to highlight the lack of research into property cycles in the residential sector on a suburb or smaller region basis, as well as the potential for increased knowledge about cycles to assist to avoid housing stress.

The paper conducts a literature review of previous cycle research and encourages the use of cycle theory. It discusses the established body of knowledge about business cycles and the office market sector, as well as investigating levels of housing affordability and how detailed knowledge about property cycles can assist to decrease housing affordability in residential areas, which will eventually experience a downturn.

It is argued that an increased level of certainty about cycle behaviour in particular suburbs will give households a higher level of confidence when considering whether and when to enter the market. Property cycle research has the potential to assist low‐income homeowners to better understand the characteristics of cycles and associated risks in each residential.

This is a conceptual paper and has conducted a review of cycle research and housing affordability in certain countries. Some areas or countries may be affected to varying degrees by property cycles and levels of housing affordability.

In extended periods of high volatility it is argued that a better understanding of housing cycles will allow more homeowners to avoid negative equity and the stress associated with repossessions. Property cycles are unavoidable although there is typically relatively little information available in the open market about the timing and amplitude of cycles in individual areas.

This paper is unique as it highlights the potential for property cycles to be used to avoid housing stress in the residential market. Traditionally cycle research is used to increase returns and avoid downturns in the office and/or business sectors.

The conventional and new inflation bias theories present two distinct facets to explain the outcome of excess inflation without output gains by a discretionary central banker. First is the temptation to achieve a higher than potential output, and, second is not to let it falter. The authors explicitly account for these two distinct dimensions in empirical formulations both exogenously and endogenously. Specifically, the purpose of this paper is to investigate what monetary discretion can and cannot do in terms of dual objectives – inflation and growth – across boom and bust cycles, both directly and indirectly.

(i) Segregate the economic activity into boom and bust cycles; (ii) Explicitly account for the two dimensions of conventional and new inflation bias theories; and (iii) model and estimate the direct and indirect effects of monetary discretion across business cycles.

The results indicate considerable asymmetries in the effects of monetary discretion and distribution thereof across objectives and cycles. The direct impact of monetary discretion tends to induce significantly higher inflation in boom and bust cycles, while it exerts a positive but insignificant effect on output. The inflation effects are more pronounced in boom than bust cycles and vice versa are the output effects. The indirect effects on output via inflation are significantly pernicious, which are more pronounced in expansions than recessions.

In a nutshell, instead of benefiting, monetary discretion tends to harm in terms of both the dual policy objectives, which cautions about its well calculated and constrained use only.

The purpose of this paper is to investigate how the South African Reserve Bank (SARB) sets monetary policy rate.

Given the controversial debate on whether central banks should target asset prices for economic stability, the authors analyse whether the SARB policy‐makers pay close attention to asset and financial markets in its policy decisions in the context of both linear and nonlinear Taylor type rule models of monetary policy.

The main findings are that the nonlinear Taylor rule provides the best description of in‐sample SARB interest rate setting behaviour as the financial crisis unfolds. The SARB policy‐makers pay close attention to the financial conditions index when setting interest rates. The SARB's response of monetary policy to inflation is greater during business cycle recessions with not much weight on output and seems to place high importance on inflationary pressures of output during boom periods. The 2007‐2009 financial crisis witnesses an overall decreased reaction to inflation, output and financial conditions amidst increased economic uncertainty.

This paper introduces a financial condition index into a Taylor monetary policy rule and examines whether nonlinear models can provide additional information over a linear model.

This paper aims to examine the asymmetric effects of exchange rate shocks on inflation for a small open economy, namely South Africa, over the period 1970Q1–2020Q1.

A threshold vector autoregressive model that allows parameters to switch according to whether a threshold variable crosses an estimated threshold is employed to address the objective of this paper. The threshold value is determined endogenously using the Hansen (1996) test. Generalized impulse responses introduced by Koop et al. (1996) are used to study the effects of exchange rate shocks on inflation depending on their size, sign and timing to the inflation cycle. The authors also employed a Cholesky decomposition identification scheme to identify exchange rate shocks in the non-linear model.

The results show that there is a non-linearity effect of the exchange rate shock on inflation. In particular, the effects of 1 or 2 standard deviations of positive (appreciation) or negative (depreciation) exchange rate shock on inflation are small in the long run but a bit larger in the high inflation regime than the low inflation regime.

This paper contributes to the literature on the non-linear effects of exchange rate pass-through (ERPT) to inflation for Sub-Saharan African economies in general and the South African economy in particular by incorporating the size and timing of the exchange rate shocks to the inflation cycle.

Investigates the possible occurrences of patterns in macroeconomic policy targeting and instruments use in some less developed countries where unscheduled regime transfers may occur. The patterns are held to correspond to those stipulated by Hibbs in his Partisan Theory for advanced democracies after due allowance is made for the nature of government and modes of regime transfer. Undertakes an investigation of Sudan, a country which has witnessed dramatic political changes that assumed the forms of eight alternating regimes in the shape of civilian democracies and military dictatorships since its independence in 1956. Traces, in particular, the evidence on quasi‐political business cycles in output growth and inflation; and on quasi‐political budget cycles in deficits and instruments of finance. Studies patterns on the form of use of policy instruments through reliance on monetary policy surprises. Obtains empirical results which generally point to the possible presence of eco‐political patterns similar in principle to those operable in the case of developed countries but with some distinct differences in nature and rhythm.